Chilly Weekend to be followed by the potential of some significant snowfall Tuesday PM Through Wednesday AM……Cold Mid May adjustment wave over the far west is pretty much stationary through much of next week….The Dweebs will keep a weary eye on the Memorial Day holiday weekend……
Saturday May 21, 2016
Posted at 8:55 pm by Howard
A Broad Trof remains over the far west this week with the upper jet west-east across Paso Robles to DV. Thus Mammoth remains on the cyclonic side of the upper jet. Several impulses will move through the broad upper trof the next few days allowing Rain showers and snow showers to occur. Some showers may be moderate with the potential for hail and accumulating snow mainly at elevations about 9K. A combination of deformation over Mono County, Upper Divergence/afternoon CAPE, will make for a potentially active late afternoon today…… This unsettled pattern is likely to continue off and on through this week. The TOML may pick up an inch or 2 of snow over the next few days…At elevations above 8K
The Holiday Weekend is looking less active at this time with cooler than normal temps and isolated showers. High temps near 60 each day over the holiday weekend…lows in the low 30s. The Dweebs are still in the camp for the possibility of 3 to 6 inches of snow above 9000 this week…..Mainly Tuesday through Thursday AM…
Saturday Evening: 8:55PM
Like yesterday, temperatures ended up 20 degrees below normal for Mammoth with todays high of 45 similar to yesterdays 44. There was over 12 hours of below freezing temperatures last night, with lows in the upper 20s. The duration of the below freezing temps qualified for a hard freeze last night and this morning. With the freezing level rising Sunday, temps will rise with highs near 50 at the Village. Most of the precipitation over CA has been under the cold pool over Northern CA. The short wave coming in this evening has little moisture with it. Nevertheless we might get a dusting or so over the upper elevations. The long wave or west coast adjustment wave will remain in place over the California next week. Individual shots of energy “are not storms” but impulses/Vort maxes that will travel down the coast then inland over the southern half of CA, during the first half of this up coming week. This is all part of the same system that is bringing much colder than normal temps to our region, snow flurries in town and snow showers on Mammoth Mt.
The latest guidance from CRFC at 21Z today had the QPF of up to nearly 2/3rd of an inch beginning Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday AM over the west side of the sierra crest. This particular strong vort max spins up to a closed center “off the coast” all with in the same upper western trof. The forecast for .63 looks good for 3 to 6 inches of snow at and above 9,000, mainly late Tuesday afternoon and throughout the night Wednesday. The Dweebs will update on this short wave Monday to see how it is coming along…and will adjust for any change in amounts if necessary…….