Archive for May, 2016

Expect a cool unsetteled week ahead with a slight chance of showers and thunder each period the next few days…..Temperatures will run below normal….As the Great Basin Upper Trof reloads and retrogrades….even more unsettled weather is expected over the weekend……

This mornings 5 day means from the ECMWF Control Ensembles showed a ridge at 140 west and a Trof in the mean over the Great Basin. A NW flow is occurring over CA with limited moisture. Strong Mid May daytime heating will destabilize the atmosphere enough for a “few” thunderstorms over Mono County. The track of an upper low over the Great Basin today is south….Then SW over Southern CA Tuesday. This gives the southern sierra the main focus of any thunderstorms action, especially Tuesday. It will be slightly cooler today and Tuesday. Highs in the upper 50s to near 60 in Mammoth with lows near freezing.

The weather pattern according to the 00z Monday European ensembles this week shows the upper high near 140west both retrograding and amplifying. This will retrograde the upper Great Basin low westward forming a rather deep low (for this time of the year) over the far west over the weekend. This upper low has been well advertised the past 3 to 5 day for next weekend.  The Dweebs expect the upper low to be preceded by wind Thursday afternoon into Saturday AM with Snow over the upper elevations and rain or snow in town this weekend.

It is too soon to forecast any amounts of snowfall on Mammoth Mt at this time.

 

The long range models keep the trof in the mean over the far west or far eastern pacific for a few weeks.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………….

 

Nice weather week ahead with the beginning of the week offering seasonal temperatures, then above normal temps for Thursday and Friday……The weekend looks partly cloudy, breezy and slightly cooler…..Next significant upper low to effect the high country about the middle of next week…..

Tuesday AM:

Forecast on track with a little cooler day today. Some of the cooler air that dropped out of Western Canada last night will spread into the Great Basin, building surface pressures and providing for a gentle NE/SW gradient.  Any clouds that develop this afternoon are due to some marginal instability that will blow off from Nevada toward the sierra crest and may provide for a few isolated showers late in the day. Note; Any showers that may develop are not due to snow melt!   High pressure will build back in Wednesday afternoon for some warming, with a trend of warming through Friday. (Friday’s Highs Low 70s)

A weak trof with some cooling is still expected Saturday and Sunday. Highs Sunday in Mammoth in the low 60s

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The Upper low that brought unseasonable cool and wet weather to the high country moved east last night, far enough east to allow for plenty of drying and lots of sunshine. Monday’s high should reach the mid 60s with lows tonight in the drier air below freezing….

Tomorrow, a weak back door cold front will kick up a little NE wind over the upper elevations. Temperatures will remain about the same as today. A little warmer weather can be expected Wednesday with much more warming Thursday and Friday. High in the low 70s.

 

The weekend outlook shows the bottom of a Trof moving through the sierra with the wet portion in the Pacific NW and extreme Northern CA. Expect the weekend to cool to the mid 60s with some high clouds and westerly breezes.

 

As highlighted above, the longer range models shows another vigorous Trof for the 2nd half of next week…  This may be similar to what we had, last week.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…..