Stretch of very warm temperature’s to continue in the high country as an Continental Upper high builds over 4 corners area again….Upper high is split with weak Col over Central CA….Widely scattered thunderstorms possible mid week….
Sunday June 26, 2016
Posted at 11:00 pm by Howard
Wednesday Am Update:
Very heavy rains fell in Mammoth during the mid afternoon hours Tuesday. An estimated .5 to an inch fell in town, most of which occurred within 1/2 hours. Todays atmosphere is certainly more moist as compared to yesterday morning, however, we do not have the upper dynamics or focusing mechanism like yesterday.
So there is a chance of showers today and or thunderstorm, However, I do not expect a rain event like yesterday in Mammoth.
There is better focusing over the Owens Valley today and so there is a better chance of areas heavy rain within the shafts directly below any thunderstorms. Tomorrow will begin a drying process as weak troughing sets up over the pacific NW. It will be dry over the Owens Valley Thursday.
Your Fourth of July Weekend outlook including July Fourth Monday is for slightly cooler temperature’s and drier conditions with the usual afternoon and early evening Zephyr winds 15 to 25 MPH. Highs in Mammoth will be in the low 80 with nighttime lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
Monday Night Update:
The Dweebs can not remember a late Spring and Summer that has been so warm here in the Greater Eastern California area. It is been 9 days straight that the high temperature has hit at least 100 at the Bishop AP. Today’s high was 106 tying the record set in 2015. Tuesday’s record is 107 should Bishop tie it. The outlook increases the chance of some thunderstorms especially Wednesday, as an easterly wave moves out of AZ. Renewed weak troughing off the coast of the Pacific NW will flush moisture eastward again. The stretch of 100+ temperatures is expected to continue with little relief in sight for the Owens Valley.
A weak *Col will help to channel some high and mid level moisture into the Central Sierra Tuesday and Wednesday for a chance of thunderstorms over Mono County. There appears to be a weak disturbance coming out of AZ, helping to add instability to the mix. Best guess is that the Mono County convergence zone will set up where the Zephyr meets the southerly flow coming up the Owens Valley as well. Any rainfall accumulation will be light.
Toms Place and Sunny Slopes is best spot for Mono County Convergence Zone as well as the Glass Mts…Clouds will build over the Sierra then tend to shift east a bit as the Zephyr kicks in..
The area at the top of the grade is a naturel for Summertime Convergence thunderstorm’s.
Going into the weekend, we will probably get some cooling as a weak Trof moves into the Pacific Northwest. SW flow should flush any remaining moisture out of Mono County so the weekend will be dry. High temps the next few day will be in the Mid 80s then cool to the upper 70s by Saturday. Lows in the 40s and 50s.
One concern worth mentioning…. The lower levels are very dry and so any thunderstorms that do develop are likely to be high based with Strong Gusty out flow winds and some lighting……Not a good set up but one we would expect here in the high county in the Summer.
Lets hope the forest dodges a bullet from any lightning related to fires, from the short period of thunderstorm’s expected mid-week
* A Col is the point of relatively lowest pressure between two upper highs…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)