Archive for June, 2016

There will be a break between systems today with another full latitude Trof impacting the Eastern Sierra beginning Tuesday through much of this week…..So far it just looks windy…Heat to Return to the high county by weeks end with a scorcher expected for much of CA early next week…..

Tuesday PM:

The current strong trof impacting the west coast bringing snows to the Cascades, showers to Northern CA this Wednesday and Thursday,  and strong gusty winds here in Mono County, will be the last of the winter of 2016.  Both ECMWF and GFS has a very strong continental high with heights at 500MB over 600DM building over Iowa then becoming flattened west-east across the southern tier states early next week. The core of the high retrogrades to the four corners states by Wednesday.  Heights rise to 597DM at 500mb over California Monday AM, putting high temperature records in Jeopardy once again this month. So far….The initial upper flow is mostly southwesterly and so the upper flow is not conducive for any significant thunderstorm outbreak of the Summertime variety. However, deformation zone type high based thunderstorms my come into play as early as Wednesday next week as both southerly flow at 500MB and the Mono Zephyr increases. A cool down is expected Thursday and Friday with a vigorous zephyr associated with a small scale trof. With that said, the cool down will only be minor as highs are still expected in the 70s toward the end of next week.

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Its been a busy week for me folks….Busy with real estate and a daughter becoming a double Bruin last Friday at UCLA. So I apologize for not updating sooner last week when the Gulf of AK trof split in the models with the bottom portion bringing difluence then upper divergence to the high country Saturday night and Sunday. Mammoth Weather picked up 1.14 inches of rainfall with some snow, at and above 10K.

Today there will be a few late afternoon instability showers due to the residual moisture from Sundays rains.

Another strong for June upper trof will be digging SE out of the GOA today. This one will not split, and remain consolidated. This means that we will get all the wind, but not likely to get much, if any precipitation, as the upper jet for the time being is forecasted to remain well to our north. Should that change, I will let you know.

Another large scale development is the continental high, making its debut as it develops this Thursday over Texas.  Eventually, this developing anticyclone will settle in over the four corners area and will likely become a major player in the upper flow pattern, not only across the southern tier states, but act upon the current strong developing Trof in the pacific northwest by eventually weakening it and flattening out the flow as it expands west northward over the southern half of California and the Western Great Basin. Potentially this is a hot dry pattern for parts of California, including Southern CA, Eastern CA and Nevada by the end of this week.

So what the Dweebs see is a lot of wind beginning Tuesday, then on and off wind through Friday.  The right rear entry region of the upper jet does brush Mammoth Wednesday Am and again Friday so there will be some lift for precip.  However the air mass looks pretty dry.  By Friday the last strong remains of the upper trof lifts out and away for Mammoth so the winds will diminish Saturday into Sunday as the four corners high brings the return of summer like weather to our region into the following week.

 

Highs in Mammoth Monday through Friday in the low to mid 60s with lows in the 30s

Temperatures will climb into the 70s Saturday with low 80s by Sunday.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)

 

 

 

Above normal temperatures to continue through mid week then a trof of low pressure will descend from the Gulf of Ak bringing breezy-cooler weather to the high country….beginning late Wednesday through the weekend…..

Above normal temperatures will continue through tomorrow Wednesday with breezy weather starting Wednesday afternoon and then through Friday.  The upper pattern over the pacific appears to be progressive with a series of low pressure systems headed for the west coast the next two weeks. Thus the idea of anymore heat waves in our future is not likely until after the Summer Solstice. This is well supported by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the ensembles.

The first trof mid week will spread gusty winds into our region with a strong zephyr Wednesday afternoon into a good part of that evening. More wind is expected Thursday and Friday.  A good 10 to 15 degrees of cooling is expected between today Tuesday and the following Saturday with highs in the upper 60s by Saturday. Lows will one again dip into the 30s this weekend.

This is a dry pattern and so no rain or snow is expected. The weekend trof will kick out late Sunday, with Monday a bit warmer before another trof approaches Tuesday into Wednesday that following week. That system appears to be deeper and cooler, bringing more wind…cooling and the chance of some light precipitation or ???

Note:  The 3rd week of June is notorious for bringing our last hard freeze and possible snowfall, between the 15th and the 22nd.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)