Archive for July, 2016

Mammoth Mt closes July 4th for the ski season with an amazing year!…..Although June was one of the hottest on record for the Eastern Sierra….Somewhat Cooler than normal temperatures are on the way for the rest of July…The Monsoon looks weaker than normal for July….

After a string of very warm days with temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees above normal, during the month of June, the forecast models are trending toward a much cooler month of July associated with west coast troughing in the mean. This will create a trend of breezier than normal afternoons and evenings along with high temperatures mostly in the 70s and even some 60s possible. Additionally, there will be much fewer days at and above 80 according to the guidance. This is opposed to what we had during the month of June where highs were mostly in the 80s the second half of the month.  The trough in the mean also spells the likelihood of a much weaker monsoon season which would be good from the standpoint for less lightning strikes.  Typically we get more high based thunderstorm’s here, carrying the threat for more lighting than heavy rain in July.

On the flip side, the negative here is that if this pattern actually does set up, the frequency of critical fire danger episodes would greatly increase, as short wave energy within the troughs bring a greatly enhanced zephyr, (west wind) along with strong winds for summer aloft. Furthermore, shots of very dry air from the west would likely accompany the strong gusty winds.  This is what I see based upon the current extended guidance, beginning the second half of this week. The west coast trough that is forecasted by the both GFS and ECMWF is definitely anomalous for the month of July!

Now for some encouraging news…

I have been told by one well seasoned Meteorologist from WSFO Reno that is now retired, that persistent Troughing in the Summer is linked to wetter winters here. Does this mean that the winter of 2016/2017 will be a wet one? No….it just means that from a troughy previous summer, that the incidence of wetter than normal winters are higher the following year.   However, just like the big El Nino forecast for a big winter in Southern CA last year that was a bust,  there are no guarantees.

One other item worth mentioning…  I do not know if any of you have been keeping up with solar news. The Sun has been recording several spotless days since early June.  We are rapidly headed toward another solar minimum.   There is also a link between wetter CA winters and solar minimums.

 

The Dweeber………………….:-)

 

 

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High pressure over the far west will gradually weaken the next week…Weak upper low will destabilize the air-mass over the Central Sierra for the chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and Saturday……Shift in the upper jet further south along the west coast next Wednesday will bring an end to the stretch of 80 degree days in Mammoth and 100 degrees days in Bishop….

Saturday AM:

One small Vort center has moved on-shore near San Jose this morning,  and will approach the sierra this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may develop today over Western Mono County, then shift off to the east later this afternoon.  So the Town of Mammoth and June may have some rainfall today Saturday. (30%) chance.

]It will be dry Sunday through next Saturday….  Highs in Mammoth will be in the high 70s then cool to the mid to upper 70s by mid-week.  lows in the 40s  There will be a stronger Zephyr by mid-week.

The following week looks hot with the chance of the return of the summertime monsoon…

 

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For the next few days, Mammoth will bask in low 80s but the end to our heat wave appears to be in sight now as a trough in the mean deepens over the pacific NW south to California. Breezier afternoons will develop by Tuesday or Wednesday and beyond. Highs will retreat back into the 70s with night in the 40s by Wednesday.

In the meantime, a very weak upper low will act upon strong daytime heating to initiate some thunderstorms today and Saturday.  This is not the Monsoon, rather some weak forcing from the west.

The Dweebs could not see any upper divergence in the 250mb progs this morning.  So I am skeptical about how much storminess will actually develop. This is a pattern that the models do not handle well.

For the record….the NWS is calling for scattered Thunderstorms this afternoon…today and Saturday with the pattern becoming fair by Sunday through the Holiday.  High will be near upper 70s to low 80s cooling to the 70s by Wednesday.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)