Archive for August, 2016

Upper trof lifting quickly NE today as Upper Ridge builds in….Quick warmup now into the weekend with low 80s expected in Mammoth Lakes…..Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model continues to back peddle on strength of La Nina for upcoming winter…..Peak of the Perseides Meteor Shower after midnight tonight…..

Sunday AM Update:

It was a warm one in Mammoth Saturday with a high temperature of 85 degrees. This Summer there has been more mid 80s then I can remember…..  One reason for this is that the AZ Monsoon has been pretty much absent this Summer. I have written about this several times in past discussion’s and so will not go into to it again.  Anomalous weather patterns are usually caused by the domino effect of larger scale occurrence’s.

Although it will be very warm through the middle of this week with more low to mid 80s in Mammoth, there are important changes this week that may lead to fire weather concerns for the next weekend. The eastern pacific high will retrograde and build out at 140W by Thursday. This pattern change will send short wave energy tumbling south along the west coast.  The latest GFS run and its ensembles develop an upper level low off the Central CA coast Thursday and drift it SE through the weekend. The pattern suggests strong upper divergence over the central then southern sierra. The upper low does develop moisture and PWAT with upper dynamics. This developing pattern will have to be watched for next weekend as far as lightning concerns in an extremely dry forest.


From Thursday:

Warmer temperature’s are on the way for Eastern CA as another warm ridge builds over the west coast.  High temperatures will climb to the lows 80s this weekend and remain there into next week.  Once again this is a dry pattern as the monsoon remains shut down until further notice.   Lows at night will be mostly in the 40s this weekend…  Winds will remain light. At this time, the outlook remains dry for the Eastern Sierra with little to no chance of the Monsoon developing….What may happen is that a Col may form off shore allowing some upper level divergence to develop the following week…We may get some showers that way…

Scripps continues to back peddle on the strong La Nina predicted earlier this year for the Winter of 2016/17.  This actually increases the chance for precipitation in the Southern CA area.  Stay tuned!

 

Tonight is the night and mainly after 1:00AM for the Enhanced Perseids meteor shower display. Go to bed early then get up at 2:00AM….. Constellation Perseids will rise in the East…. Moon sets just after 1:00AM…… Friday night is past peak but it may still be good….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

The break from record heat will continue into the new week with slightly below normal temps in the high country……Warmer weather is expected 2nd half of the new week…..Dry pattern to continue……Perseids flying high next week!

It’s been a little chilly at night as of late. Early morning lows have been in the low 40s in Mammoth and as chilly as 30 in the Bridgeport area. The extremely dry air combines with off shore troughing is likely to continue through mid week. This will include the usual zephyr afternoon and evening breezes.

Retrogression of the long wave features will occur 2nd half of this upcoming week. So above normal temperatures will redevelop by next weekend. (Normal highs now about 77) in Mammoth, this time of the year. Early morning lows average low to mid 40s.

 

Outlook:

Favored ECMWF:

Week 2:

Amplification of the long wave ridge is expected to near the dateline later this new week plus the continental high moving westward will bring the possibility for another siege of heat week 2.   However, there are significant difference between the EC ensembles and the control.  The control keeps the upper ridge position in the mean between north of Hawaii and the Dateline while the ensembles (5 day means) retrograde it slightly west of Kamchatka. Both models suggest a return to warmer than normal temps. However the ensembles suggest that the AZ Monsoon will return to SE California, Southern CA Deserts north to the Eastern Sierra during the 3rd week of August. (more on that later)

 

Perseids meteor shower:

Increasing nightly now with more meteors every night as we approach the maximum on the 11th/12th/ Best viewing after midnight!

REPRINT:

Perseids Meteor Shower:

Earth will pass through the path of Comet Swift-Tuttle from July 17 to Aug. 24, with the shower’s peak — when Earth passes through the densest, dustiest area — occurring on Aug. 12. That means you’ll see the most meteors in the shortest amount of time near that peak, but you can still catch some action from the famed meteor shower before or after that point.

The Perseid meteor shower will burst into light this August as Earth passes through the long trail left by Comet Swift-Tuttle — and this year, it’s slated to put on a spectacular show. Here’s how and when to see the Perseids.

According to NASA meteor expert Bill Cooke, the Perseids are perhaps the most popular meteor shower of the year. They will be in “outburst” in 2016, which means they’ll appear at double the usual rates.

“This year, instead of seeing about 80 Perseids per hour, the rate could top 150 and even approach 200 meteors per hour,” Cooke said. It’s the first such outburst since 2009.

Moon Setting times for best viewing: (best viewing after moon set)  The shower radiates from the NE.  (Best viewing after Midnight)

August 11th 12:30AM   (Near Peak)

August 12th 1:09AM  (Peak of Shower)