Upper Low bottomed out over Oregon today and upper trof now racing eastward….It is doubtful that any measurable precip will reach Mammoth….Cooler….Breezy weather is expected to continue through Tuesday with seasonal weather after mid week…
Sunday October 2, 2016
Posted at 10:25 pm by Howard
There are a few radar returns at the moment just to the west of Mammoth Mt. This is part of a short wave in the upper flow bringing some showers to Northern CA. Outside of a few flurries today over the crest…little if any chance for anything measurable…. The high clouds you are seeing is upper level CAPE with no lower level supporting CAPE.
Our storm system put on its breaks today, coming to a screeching halt in its southward dig…..Now racing eastward, it is doubtful that any measurable precipitation will fall with this particular wave in Mammoth Lakes. The Dweebs were up in Amador County this afternoon where heavy rain showers fell in the foothills at the 3500 foot level. As of 10:00PM Sunday, the Trof axis was already over Central NV with NW flow over Eastern CA. The next upstream short wave will come through about Tuesday Mid Morning. We may get a few showers from that system. Overall, this system brings an autumn chill, hard freezes in some areas and that it.
Of note, it is interesting to mention that the long wave Trof remains over the intermountain west through Mid Week keeping temperatures a bit cooler then normal the next few days. A cool WNW flow aloft will keep breezy weather of the upper elevations. I do expect high temps becoming more seasonable by Thursday into Friday, (low 60s) with mid to upper 60s by the upcoming weekend. Week 2 looks to begin bit cooler again..
Over all there are no sign of any big storms on the horizon. However, the hemispheric pattern shows blocking over Alaska and westerlies strengthening in the coming weeks. The ECMWF 5 day means show the AK Block retrograding and long wave trofing approaching the pacific northwest for some very wet weather week two in Washington and Oregon. The eastern pacific ridge is out by the dateline week two…A good place for it, as with any significant amplification, that would possibly come south into California. It may be that changes in SSTAs pattern across the Pacific are showing up now in a more positive way.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)