October Precipitation off to a grand start with 4.03 inches of rain here at the Village at Mammoth over the weekend….For some areas it is the 3rd wettest Oct on record already…..Still lots more time this month to set all time October Precipitation Record……While we wait….Another warm up is in store with temps in the upper 60s Friday…….Is another AR event in the cards for Northern and Central CA this month?
Tuesday October 18, 2016
Posted at 11:40 pm by Howard
A great storm for the trees! They need water just like we do. Four inches of rain will certainly help the forest but unfortunately it is too late for many of our giant pines…. Some are now widow makers so be sure to check out carefully around your residence’s. If the’re up wind and dead, get a professional to inspect them and cut down if necessary.
The absolute most dangerous time for tree damage is when we have heavy wet snow that clings to the upper tree followed by rapidly falling temps, and gusty winds. So if the forecast is for heavy wet snow followed by a quick drop in temps such as after a cold front passage, along with strong gusty winds post frontal….beware!
This is a different fall. And anything different is a good thing compared to the past 5 years. What is different? For one, the westerlies were exceptionally strong across the north pacific over the past week. This was due to the block over AK and the undercutting of the westerlies. Add the tremendous latent heat from not one, but two typhoon’s and Northern and Central California hit the Jackpot! The upper jets strength was spun up more from the tropical systems than cold air advection as is usually the case in winter.
Although we have some fine weather shaping up the next few days….Next week could prove to be interesting and active again. Although no typhoons are expected to become extra tropical over the central or western pacific, the upper pattern does amplify due to a shot of cold air coming off of Eastern Asia. The location of the deepening trof off the North Eastern Asian coast suggest strong amplification of the westerlies downstream with an upper ridge building out at 170west. This is a little west of where the Dweebs would like it to be…..So the upper trof sets up at 140west. However, in that there is no high latitude block this time, Short wave energy will likely over run the central pacific ridge with time, and either cut the eastern pacific trof off or deepening it SW/NE, which may set up another AR for Northern and Central CA within the next 6 to 10 days…. The AR if it does develop, it does not look as wet or protracted as last weekend. Nevertheless, it may be enough to set an all time precipitation record for October for parts of California and Northwestern NV.
In the meantime, LA is expected 100 degree heat Thursday from a hot *Santana and Mammoth temps will climb into the upper 60s. All areas will expect cooling late in the weekend with the pattern change expected. The Dweebs will have a better handle on the prospect’s for more rain or snow early next week or before.
North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures:
Biggest anomalies are in the Bering Sea now about 170West. Is it coincidence that the mean pacific ridge is now about 170west? Is the position of the Anomalous SSTA the Chicken or the Egg?
Also there is a cold pool developing between 160East and 160West, between 40 and 50 north. Could this be the beginning of the resurgence of the dreaded +PDO?
*Santana = Devil Wind