MJO into Phase Space 6 then 7…Some high temperature records possibe for the Golden State…..Watch for big change in the pattern about the end of 3rd Week of November…
Monday November 7, 2016
Posted at 1:16 pm by Howard
There is some amazing amplification taking place in the MJO RIMM. Today, as has been the case the past week the MJO phase space has been going crazy! Take a Look! http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml That my friends spells real change! It is a longer period western pacific tropical signal that has a pretty good linear relationship to our weather here in the Central Sierra, during the colder time of the year (Nov-March). The MJO phase space by most global models gives you a look into the future…beyond the global models week 1 and 2. They are helpful in determining what weeks 3 and 4 might be like. In this case…That a big change is coming the end of 3rd week of November through the end of the month. What kind of change? The MJO temperature composites indicate it will gradually turn colder over the far west beginning the latter part of the 3rd week of November into the end of the month, with increasing odds of snowfall in the Central Sierra week 4 or the period after the 21st through the end of the month. Remember, this is a long-range outlook and not a detailed forecast like what the GFS or ECMWF guidance would show you. So the details are forth-coming but the change to cold is real! For those that have subscribed to my by weekly letter, thank you. I will have some special lead information that will be posted their in the letter and then on the Dweeb blog at a later date/time.
In the meantime…..its going to be Bikini weather along the coast for at least a week…..And warm with low 60s in Mammoth and possible low 80s for the Owens Valley in the not to distant future.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)