Milder weather on the way before major pattern change occurs….Christmas Weekend to be cooler then normal…With a slight chance of snow showers…..
Sunday December 18, 2016
Posted at 3:47 pm by Howard
Contrary to last nights post, both ECMWF and GFS has a moderate short wave approaching the Sierra Friday for moderate snowfall. (6 to 12 inches) The Dweebs are still skeptic on this change…will update Tomorrow.
The GFS has the MJO increasing in amplitude in Phase spaces 8/1. This would argue for the possibility of the return of at least mid latitude blocking south of the Bering Sea by about the end of the year or the first week of Jan. This would be a wet pattern for the west coast. The only problem is that the ECMWF does not have it and so what the GFS is picking up on is questionable at best.
Just to Ad to the last paragraph, The JMAN is also indicating a rise in RIMM signal in phases 8/1. This is getting interesting. If the ECMWF come around to the same, will get ready for some real Amplification over the north central pacific and see some very interesting patterns develop!
AR II anyone?
More later after the CPC tropical discussion Tuesday afternoon…
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)
Although the details are in my weather letter, to be released late tonight or Monday AM, the upper pattern will not support a major precipitation type storm, until very late this year or just after New Years….The Models are just too progressive. This means either NW or Inside sliders with a return to colder weather over Christmas, after this weeks warm up….By around the 1st there is a chance the upper pattern across the north pacific may buckle….with long wave Trofing over the eastern pacific. Highs warming to the 40s this week with lows moderating at resort levels to the 20s by Wednesday. Light breezes over the lower slopes.