Archive for year 2016

Milder weather on the way before major pattern change occurs….Christmas Weekend to be cooler then normal…With a slight chance of snow showers…..

Monday AM,

 

Contrary to last nights post, both ECMWF and GFS has a moderate short wave approaching the Sierra Friday for moderate snowfall. (6 to 12 inches) The Dweebs are still skeptic on this change…will update Tomorrow.

Longer Range:

The GFS has the MJO increasing in amplitude in Phase spaces 8/1. This would argue for the possibility of the return of at least mid latitude blocking south of the Bering Sea by about the end of the year or the first week of Jan.  This would be a wet pattern for the west coast. The only problem is that the ECMWF does not have it and so what the GFS is picking up on is questionable at best.

Just to Ad to the last paragraph,  The JMAN is also indicating a rise in RIMM signal in phases 8/1. This is getting interesting. If the ECMWF come around to the same, will get ready for some real Amplification over the north central pacific and see some very interesting patterns develop!

AR II anyone?

 

More later after the CPC tropical discussion Tuesday afternoon…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)

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Although the details are in my weather letter, to be released late tonight or Monday AM, the upper pattern will not support a major precipitation type storm, until very late this year or just after New Years….The Models are just too progressive. This means either NW or Inside sliders with a return to colder weather over Christmas, after this weeks warm up….By around the 1st there is a chance the upper pattern across the north pacific may buckle….with long wave Trofing over the eastern pacific. Highs warming to the 40s this week with lows moderating at resort levels to the 20s by Wednesday. Light breezes over the lower slopes.

 

The Dweeber……………………:-)

 

 

 

 

Thursday’s storm is slowing down and so is the cold air push into Mammoth……Rain may not change to snow untill after midnight in town Thursday night…..Elevations above 9K should be all snow Thursday Night into Friday with amounts increasing Thursday into Friday…Over 4 feet of snow is possible now over the upper elevation of Mammoth Mtn as Massive AR event unfolds for Thursday night into Friday Morning….

Friday Afternoon 3:00PM

Upper Trof Axis has pushed through with cold northerly flow now.  Looking at a 3 dog night with lows 0 to -10.

 

Finally Tally…  (EQ) 5.13 inches of water (Mammoth Mt)    2.86 inches of water at the Village at Mammoth

39 to 56 inches on Mammoth Mountain; Total Base Depth  54 to 132 inches.

6 inches lower elevations of Town. About a foot at the VILLAGE

12 to 18 inches near Canyon Lodge.

Cold the next few days with highs in the 20s…

 

Lows -10 to 0

Next storm about Friday..

 

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Tuesday Night: 9:50PM

Possible High End Wind event for Mono County Beginning Wednesday night into Thursday Mid Day….Highway 395 Long Valley,  north to Walker under the gun for wind gusts up to 100MPH late Wednesday night through Thursday mid day.

Heavy rain possible along the lee of the Sierra Thursday night below 8500 feet with the snow level crashing after mid night.  10 to 20 inches of snow possible over the lower elevation’s of town while upper elevations of town may get 2 feet plus, depending upon snow level. This would be near Canyon Lodge.

Remember, this storm is all about the snow level. About 5 inches of water is expected Thursday into Friday. If for some reason the snow level verifies 500 to 700 feet lower, the town will be buried…with possible R3 conditions.

The event is still about 48 hours away. Will update late Thursday morning.

 

Tuesday AM:

 

Trick Tricky!

The 12Z GFS guidance this morning continues the trend of slowing the storm down and most importantly slowing the cold air from invading the Town of Mammoth. All the while, the precipitation continues through the event. What this means is that although the storm is getting a bit wetter with more QPF,  it may stay rain longer in the Town of Mammoth before turning to snow. In that we are a good 48 to 60 hours away from the precip event, the Dweebs are backing off on snowfall amounts in Town to between 10 and 20 inches, but increasing amounts for the upper mountain to 4 feet by Friday afternoon…..The snow level will be “about” 9000 feet Thursday afternoon lowering to 8000 by Thursday night then crashing to the Mono County Valley Floor after midnight Thursday…..

 

The weekend will be dry and cold.  Highs in town in the low 20s and lows around zero to 5 above at night.

 

Longer Range:

it appears that we will have some very nice weather the week prior to Christmas…then a series of inside sliders between about Christmas Eve and New Years. These are cold storms with generally light amounts of snowfall. (1 to 6 inches)  Another point to make here is that there are signs that the pattern will retrograde slowly the last week of the year and so we may be looking at another major storm by the 1st week of the new year.  I have said it before several times, and I will mention it again. The Atmospheric River events of the past 2 months will most likely repeat itself again later in January or early February. The negative phase of the WPO will likely rise its ugly head again but the next time, it may be on steroids…..

PS. There was a very famous winter in Mammoth Lakes associated with the -WPO….If you research the 500mb reanalysis charts, what you will find is an uncanny resemblance of the pattern of the Winter of 1969 to the one that we just went through and one that may reemerge January or February of 2017.

 

The Dweeber……..:-)

This Patterns Grand Finale is in sight with heavy snowfall predicted for lower slopes…..Mammoth Mts Night of Lights to be Fair and Cold with lots of Snow on the Ground….

As we head toward the Yule Season and looking back,  the weather events of the recent past seem to confirm the frustrations on how the state of the art WX modeling has a long way to go in handing complex patterns such as the one we are in at the moment. The flip-flopping of the global models in the medium range and the “at odds” of important parameters of the two most relayed upon models has never been more noticeable than over the past week.  All patterns come to an end and are replaced by new patterns. Then often times repeat them self’s later in the Winter. This pattern will too will come to pass, and before this upcoming weekend.

The change and what’s coming…..

The change in pattern that is being initiated is fundamentally a change from a stable 4 wave hemispheric pattern to a 5 wave, (progressive) pattern. It will break down the big high latitude block over the Bering Sea and weaken the (-WPO) and flip it positive. Over the next 10 days, the Polar Vortex will play a more dominant role over the Hemisphere setting up the key thermal anchor the Polar PV and cold over the Northern CONUS and East as we move into January.

For the time being there will be only two more AR events associated with the Kona Low this week.  One Tuesday into Wednesday and Thursday into Friday. The first event is focused most on Northern CA will only light precip for Mono County. The last in the series Thursday is key for snow pack over the lower slopes of Mammoth Mt.

The Grand Finale:

The Transition in the Hemi, from 4 to 5 wave will have the effect of sharpening the ridge over AK and driving and dislodging the Gulf of AK trough SE to the California west coast Thursday into Friday. As the block breaks down, the present Kona Low is being kicked out from North of Hawaii by another Kona Low that will redevelop later this week. As the old Kona Low ejects NE, it will open and combine with the digging “long wave” GOAK Trof southwest of California. The Long wave Trof approaching the west coast will build a short wave ridge ahead of it over the Desert SW slowing its progress. The Combination of the Front Left quad of the Sj jet, a wide PWAT fetch covering half of CA and the main Short Wave with Vort Max coming over the top of Mammoth Mt early Friday Morning will make for a Memorable Experience in Mammoth Lakes Thursday night with up to 30 inches of snow possible at the 8000 foot level. The Mountain may get 3 to 4 feet of powder.  Although this storm will not be cold enough for a Platinum Powder Alert, it will be plenty cold and the Powder will be very tasty Saturday AM!

 

The weekend outlook is cold with highs in the 20s. There may be some snow showers but any accumulation will be light!  Lows at night will be in the single digits so dress warmly for the Saturday Night of Lights fireworks show at Canyon Lodge.

 

Longer Range:

It looks quite cold between Christmas and New years with two inside slider type storms….

 

Stay tuned and dress warmly for the Holiday’s!