Major Storm Cycle Ahead as -EPO Rex Block Forces Strong Southerly Stream into Central West Coast….Copious AR Precipatation Event Probable for the Northern and Central Sierra….
Monday January 2, 2017
Posted at 2:25 am by Howard
UPDATE 10:45 AM Monday:
The QPF updates keep coming and the resounding questions becomes… will there be a break as several waves of energy are expected to pound Central CA this week.
The series QPF 24 hour bull’s-eyes moves slightly north and south of a pivot point from about Mammoth Pass this week as follows..
- Day 1 24 hour amounts 4:00PM Monday to 4:00PM Tuesday = .35 to .50
- Day 2 24 hour amounts 4.00PM Tuesday to 4:00PM Wednesday = 4.11
- Day 3 24 hour amounts 4:00PM Wednesday to 4:pm Thursday = 2.50
- Day 4 24 hour amounts 4:00PM Thursday to 4PM Saturday = 2.50
- Total day 5 MAX About 9.5 inches at Mammoth Pass Before Snow levels rise to 9000 ft This means that the town may get 3 to 4+ feet before AR event.
- Total 7 day Max 18 inches over Mammoth Pass
Note: This has the potential to be one of the historically significant precip events for Central CA. Considering all the fires the past 5 years, leaving burn scars in the forest. Rock slides, mud flows, and road damage on the west side of the sierra are being considered….
On the bright side, most if not all reservoirs will be topped out by the end of this storm cycle. Some Dams may be forced to spill….
PS I looked at both todays 12Z Monday GFS and ECMWF total 10 day QPF. added them together and averaged them out. They paint about 30 inches of water over a 10 day period at MAX over the Sierra.
Monday the 2nd 8:40am update shows that the 1st storm moving in Tuesday afternoon will continue through Thursday morning with snow showers Thursday afternoon into Friday. The storm will drop between 18 and 24 inches of snow in town and about 3 feet on Mammoth Mt.
The big AR event for the upcoming weekend will begin Saturday in town. However, preliminary guidance indicates that the freezing level goes up to 9300 feet Saturday night the 7th. At this time….Odds are higher that the weekend storm will begin as snow, turn to rain in town Saturday night and into Sunday….then turn back to snow late Sunday night….. The snow level may rise as high as 9500 by Sunday 12:00PM. This of course is all subject to change…..but confidence is pretty high that a major Atmospheric River Event will hit next weekend……7 day QPF is between 16 and 17 inches over the Sierra Crest near Mammoth Lakes by next Monday AM. The Dweebs expect this forecast may even be under done…. Stay tuned for updates….here and in my weather letter….
The Dweebs have been watching the global models and their handling of a weather pattern that has already happened before in early December and has been destined to repeat itself again now for January. It appears that the current Arctic front will stall itself out, mostly north of 40N and give way to a strong under cutting, subtropical jet which will eventually couple with the polar jet later this week. The trend of ensembles are nothing less exciting than the event itself which may deliver some 5 to 8 feet of snow to the Town of Mammoth, (If it is all snow) and some 12 to 16 feet over the upper elevations of Mammoth MT over the next 7 days. We will have two Atmospheric River events, one light to moderate one mid week and the other AR event will hit Saturday into the following Monday. Folks…that one will really get your attention! So pineapple up and ever,
This is a developing pattern with the forecast ability of the details likely only within a 24 to 48 hour period before each surge….The Crescendo is likely over the upcoming weekend into the following week….
Get the shovels ready and the snow blowers fired up and working….We should have a wild 7 days ahead, beginning soon….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)