Let the Weather Patterns Begin!….Cold Storm 1st Mid Week then Wet and Wild over the weekend……General Quantitative Central Sierra precipitation forecasts of 25 to 30 inches of water EQ by January 13th……
Tuesday January 3, 2017
Posted at 9:33 am by Howard
Thursday AM Update:
Think we have had a big winter so far? Think again…According to the DWP, as of January 4th yesterday, Mammoth Pass was only 101% of normal. However, that does not reflect much of the 7.85 inches that has fallen by 10:00AM Thursday….
- Mammoth Mt Reporting 3.5 feet to 7 feet of new snow storm total so far….Another 3 to 7 inches is possible today.
- At Mammoth WX .com 34 inches of snow has fallen.
- Mammoth Pass as of 8:45 AM Thursday, has a storm total of 7.84 inches
- Major flood event is forecasted for Yosemite Valley Sunday Afternoon
- AR event to begin as snow Saturday morning with snow changing to rain during the late afternoon or evening. Heavy rain is expected by Saturday night with the snow level at 9000 to 9500 feet into Sunday AM
- The Snow level will remain above 9000 feet until about mid afternoon Sunday. It begins to come down about 4:00PM Sunday then lower throughout the night and into Monday.
Here are the updated freezing levels for Yosemite from California Rivers Forecast Center (CNRFC)
- Sunday 4:00AM 10,000 feet
- Sunday 10:00AM 9700 feet
- Sunday 4:00PM 8900 feet
- Sunday 10:00PM 8600 feet (Snow sticking at Canyon Lodge then Eastward to the Village at Mammoth over night)
- Monday 4:00AM 7900 feet (Snow sticking in TOML)
- Monday 10:00AM 7300 feet (Snow sticking on Highway 395
Note: The snow level is 500 feet below the freezing level in a saturated air mass; These freezing level are provided by CRFC.
The Water EQ is still the same; about 10 to 12 inches over the Central Sierra through the weekend and between 6 and 7 inches in the Town of Mammoth. The good news this morning is that the very latest freezing level information from CRFC, for Yosemite, which I use as a guide for Mammoth Lakes is showing that colder air will be moving into our area sooner, like Sunday night into Monday AM. For those that are interested, compare the freezing level info below in Tuesday afternoons update to what you see above. As you can see, by Monday 4:00AM, the freezing level is some 1200 feet lower!
AR = Atmospheric River SEE: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/
The latest “updated” QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) for the Central Sierra between 4:00AM today Thursday, through Friday night at 10:00PM the 13th of January is 30.00 inches of Water.
AR #2 arrives Saturday AM with a break Monday Night and Tuesday
AR #3 is a smaller AR and the Dweebs believe that Mono County will just get a lot of Snow above 6000 feet.
AR #4 arrives Thursday Afternoon the 12th. This too looks to be a colder storm with it winding down late Friday into Saturday the 14th.
I will have a special update on the longer range this weekend via my Weather Letter….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)
Wednesday Jan 4th:
1st in a possible series of 3 AR events is unloading on the Mammoth Lakes 24 hour amounts 2.23 inches of water and 27 inches of new snowfall at Main Lodge. There is about 18 inches at the Village at Mammoth.
We are about 1/2 way through this storm…
2nd Atmospheric River will hit Saturday with the peak late Sunday AM. Snow level possibly going up as high as 9500 feet by 10:00AM Sunday. Snow level will come down late Sunday afternoon into Monday.
3rd Atmospheric River may occur next Wednesday through the following Thursday Night. This appears to be the last in the series…The wet pattern ends when the blocking over AK and the Bering Sea ends….which is about Friday the 13th of January…
Your lucky day….the Dweebs still see a total of 25 to 30 inches of Water over the Central Sierra from this storm cycle which began yesterday the 3rd and will likely end by Friday the 13th……
Tuesday 1:45 PM Update:
7 day QPF posted by WPC covering period through Tuesday night next week is 22.8 inches. This does not cover the storm for Tuesday night through the following Friday, which may be the last in the series….
There is chat about the rain on Sunday. Here are the freezing levels just released by RFC
Here is the latest freezing levels for Yosemite for the subject time frame.
- 4:00PM Saturday 8800
- 10:00PM Saturday 9300
- 4:am Sunday 9500
- 10:00AM Sunday 10000
- 4:00PM Sunday 9600
- 10:00PM Sunday 9200
- 4:00AM Monday 8500
Note; in a storm like this the snow level is usually 500 feet below the freezing level. (saturated air mass)
The first in a series of wet storms will hit the sierra beginning today with 36 hours snowfall forecasts in the 4 to 5 foot range for Mammoth Mt and 2 feet plus at the 8000 foot level for Mammoth Lakes. There is a small Atmospheric River taking place tomorrow Wednesday. The Cold Air currently in place will gradually get flushed out over the next 24 to 36 hours. The set up is cold troughing in the pacific NW coupling with a WSW mid latitude upper jet undercutting the GOAK Ridge. This is associated with Gulf of AK Blocking pattern #1. (-EPO); Pattern #2 will be associated with the same ridge that will retrograde (back up) to the Bering Sea. The teleconnection is called the (-WPO) This pattern is warmer and wetter because with the new location of the upper ridge, and energy coming over the top of the ridge will dig a new long wave Trof, both further west and deeper into the Eastern Pacific. It just so happens that there is a mid latitude subtropical low NNE of Hawaii that will be picked up Saturday and Sunday. This coupling of this action picks up the AR and pulls it onto CA Sunday. This AR is a large one and broad. It is a two-day event. It will have precipitation rates of 1 to 2 inches of QPF every 6 hour period for over 24 hours. Last nights WPC 7Day QPF showed 25 inches over the Central Sierra near Mammoth. That does not cover the end of this storm cycle.
If you want to know if the end is in sight, you have to know when the block will be gone from the Bering Sea. It looks like it will weaken by the end of next week. So if that is true, about the 15th or so should be the end of this pattern. If the blocking persists with any significance, the pattern will continue wet until which time the block either falls apart or it retrogrades west over Siberia, Rus.
Although this WX Patten will be an inconvenience to many, it will be fabulous for the forest and the reservoirs through out the state. It will put a huge dent in our drought! Watch for Alaskan blocking to most likely return in February as well…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)