Next Series of Storms make there way into the High County Today with a Rich Moisture Plume for Storm #1….Amounts for the Town of Mammoth 8 to 16 inches by Mid Morning Thursday…..
Wednesday January 18, 2017
Posted at 12:42 pm by Howard
Thursday the 19th….
Mammoth Mt reported 20 to 30 inches of new this morning. Here at Mammothweather near the village, 16 inches of new has accumulated overnight. The Sierra is close to a record snowpack for this time of the year. The Dweebs are concerned about a significant “AR” event in February on this record snowpack. Although there is no “AR” in the forecast now or in the outlook period….Parts of the Central Valley maybe primed for flooding if one should occur….
The next two storms are looking very good…
The QPF collectively suggests that snowfall totals by next Wednesday would be in the neighborhood of 70 to 80 inches over the crest. Possibly between 30 and 40 inches at the Village. The good news is that for the snow weary, it really looks like
we’re in for a long break beginning this Wednesday into the first week of February. Temperatures next week look cold, but moderating over the upper elevations by that following weekend while the valleys will be under an inversion.
In the very long-range, there has been some ensemble members that suggest that another AR is possible 3 weeks out. However, there is nothing even close to being conclusive to that effect at this time….
It is time to enjoy all the snow and the best skiing in many years!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)
The biggest change that the Dweebs are noting over the past 24 hours, is that the Global Models are showing a bit less split flow as the system comes through Thursday morning. So less shadowing will allow more snowfall into the Town of Mammoth. The California Rivers forecast center has increased their QPF by 25% for the Yosemite point. The Town of Mammoth at 7800 feet shows an inch of water and the Mammoth Crest about 1.85 by Mid-morning. Considering Temperatures, there should be no problem accumulating at least a foot in the lower elevations of town with amounts between 1 and 2 feet between the Village and Canyon Lodge. The upper mountain will possibly be in the 2 foot range, considering Snow to Water Ratios tonight in the morning hours.