High Clouds will give way to more sunshine today with warmer temps……The Thursday-Friday Storm has turned decidedly wetter for Mono County…..Cloudy but dry weekend still in the Outlook…..But Groundhog’s Day Outlook May have a few surprises for the Snow Weary…..
Monday January 30, 2017
Posted at 7:42 am by Howard
I find it interesting that for the past two runs, the European wants to bring in another storm to the Sierra early next week while the GFS is building an even stronger ridge with its 12Z run compared to its 06Z from last night. Took a quick look at the WPC QPF 7 day and noted that the Dweebs back east are giving the Sierra on the west side from Mammoth Mt, about 4 tenths more to the 7 day period after the Thursday-Friday storm, and after a fair weekend. For moisture lovers, Tahoe will fair better with the EURO storm, with about an additional 1-1/2 inches of water added. Not nearly the QPF the EC showed, but a compromise enough that some of the Dweebs back east are at least considering another front while the GFS is going with Beach Weather in Southern CA by Wednesday next week. Go figure…. That’s snow Biz….
Comment: Watch for the flip!
Either model may flip before Punxsutawney Phil goes out to see his shadow at 7:25 AM this Thursday. However, can we really rely on the forecast power that this over grown rat has. That is to predict our weather for the next 6 weeks? No! Because the simple answer is, that the weather is often times the opposite on the west coast as it is in Pennsylvania because of the wave length of the westerlies…… That is why we have to have our own answer to Punxsutawney Phil on the west coast. Mammoth Marmot is it! But do you really think that this large squirrel will attempt to find his way out of the 25 foot snow pack just to see if he can see his shadow this Thursday? Not………..
No matter what way you look at it, mother nature wants to give Mono County her fair share of precipitation from every storm that hits Northern California this winter….. The guidance has turn decidedly wetter for Southern Mono County, with the Thursday Friday storm. Another Atmospheric River, however, light to moderate, is forecasted to slam Northern California with enough left to bring the Town of Mammoth between 1 and 2 feet of new snowfall and up to 3 feet over the crest. Unusually, the GFS has out done the European Model this year. Those forecasters including myself that put more emphasis on the Euro model, keep playing catch up with the rest of the guidance for storms in the future. Note: Snow levels may rise to between 7500 to 8,000 for a time Thursday, so amounts may be slightly less in town.
This storm is slowing a bit and wont really get in here until Thursday morning with Thursday afternoon into Friday morning the “IOP” for Forecasters.
The Following weekend is still expected to be dry. However, cloudy and breezy over the upper elevations as another system pushes in to the north of us.
Just a heads up, the trend of the Global forecast system (GFS) continues to retrograde the Bering Sea Block westward next weekend for a storm track trending North.
However, the EURO which I just bashed, delays the westward movement of the Block by a few days and allows another system to effect Mono County early the following week. At the present time, this extension of time by the European Model is not supported by the GFS system, so we”ll have to wait until about Ground Hogs Day Thursday, to see if the GFS continues its consistency or flips to the ECMWF.