Archive for February, 2017

Storms still rolling into California one after another….Those in town concernd about the flood potential from the next AR event can relax a bit now…..But keep the shovels handy!

Mammoth Lakes picked up some 12 to 14 inches of snow today Friday with Mammoth Mt snow plot showing 15 inches at the main lodge at 4:00PM. Another 6 to 10 inches is expected tonight, between the Town and the Mountain by mid morning Saturday.

There will be some kind of a break in the weather Saturday afternoon into Sunday with just some snow showers. Highs will be in the 30s with lows in the 20s.  Another big storm is on the way for Mammoth late Sunday night. My current update shows that it is much less likely to bring rain in town as the models are coming in some 1 to 2 degrees colder with this storm now.  The snow level looks to be just above highway 395 and 203 Monday afternoon. This is certainly good news for those that are concerned about earlier forecasts of flooding in the low-lying areas of town as well as holiday travelers headed home concerned about the weather on highway 395 south.

I will have a brief update via my weather letter Saturday for the Sunday night through Wednesday storm,  Expect a more detailed forecast and outlook Monday AM and even a brief glimpse into the future for the week 2 possibly week 3 via the CFS.

http://data.mammothweather.com/landing/

 

The Dweeber……..:-)

Major Storm Slated for Southern CA Friday into Saturday with Very Heavy to Excessive Precipitation expected…..Mammoth to receievd snowfall Friday into Saturday AM with moderate amounts…

The Southern California monster rain storm will effect Mammoth with moderate Snowfall Friday and Friday night. Expect 6 to 10 inches of snow Friday and 3 to 7 inches Friday night. Snow showers are expected Saturday.

In regards to the *big storm for the southland Friday into Saturday, for you weather geeks, here is a technical discussion from the Weather Prediction Center back in MD.

 

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON TAP FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY

“THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM TROF APPROACH 140W AT 0000 UTC FRI. THIS ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION WITH PW ANOMALIES OF 2-3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN IMPACTING THIS REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS THE AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM TROF APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING TROF AND IN THE ANOMALOUS PW AXIS WILL PRODUCE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUX VALUES OF 4-5+ STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE THE MEAN—WITH THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD EXPECTED TO SEE THE GREATEST PRECIP IMPACT INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE FROM MONTEREY—SOUTHWARD TO THE TRANSVERSE RANGE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS OF 3-5″ POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST RANGES—WITH ISOLATED MAXIMA UP TO 8” POSSIBLE. AWAY FROM THE MAX PRECIP AREA FROM MONTEREY TO THE TRANSVERSE RANGE—MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH SUCH HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE AREAS—THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK OF RUNOFF ISSUES—ESPECIALLY IN THE NUMEROUS BURN SCAR AREAS THROUGH THE TRANSVERSE RANGE”

  • I liked Bug storm better……best laugh I’ve had in a long time….

 

 

Another break in the weather in progress with light breezes and partly sunny skies….Next Storm Cycle Begins Thursday…..

Wednesday 2/15/17

Today will be the last nice mild day for a while..

Expect highs in the 40s with light breezes and lows tonight in the 20s.

Winds will come up tonight.

I will have a detailed update on the rest of this weeks weather Thursday morning, as well as a look at the wet pattern for next week,  in my “Weather Letter” for subscribers….

See:   http://data.mammothweather.com/landing/

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Monday PM Snowfall Est

By Thursday AM 3 to 6 in town/ 6 to 12 in Mammoth Mt

Friday/Saturday AM  6 to 12 in town 12 to 18 on Mammoth Mt

Snow showers Saturday. Town of Mammoth will be shadowed out, but big storm for Southern CA with heavy rain and Snow Mts.

Biggest Storm for the sierra will be between Sunday and Wednesday……Stay Tuned…..As mentioned below, a huge MJO is developing over the next few days in the tropical western pacific. This one has one of the biggest deviation from normal for it phase space and time of year. Phase 8/1

Expect massive amplification week two with another big upper high over Alaska.  You know what that means!    😯

 

 

Monday AM:

Important points to be covering over the next 4 weeks:

  1. Mono County is officially out of the Drought. This is amazing to have happened in one water year!
  2. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to reach historic proportions this week, in phases 8-1.   (This will jack start El Nino again)
  3. Snowpack

Here are a few statements about where we are in the current water year and how the Southern and Central Sierra are doing,

I. Southern Sierra:

  1. The wettest winter for the Southern Sierra was the winter of 1969.   It had an average of 56.3 inches of water for that wet season, averaged over 6 reporting sites.  It is currently 227% of normal on February 12th. Currently, the Southern Sierra stands on par, water wise, with the winter of 1969.
  2. The wettest winter for the Central Sierra was the winter of 1983.  That winter averaged 77.4 inches over 5 recording sites. As of February 12th, it is 230% of normal to date, currently well ahead of the winter of 1983.

 

Enjoy the next few mild days with highs in the 40s….Next series of snow storms to begin Thursday. They will be colder overall. I expect several feet of snow between Thursday and the following Wednesday.

I will update in my weather letter Thursday morning, in more detail about the net series and what to expect snowfall footage wise, for the Town and Mammoth Mt.

SEE:    http://data.mammothweather.com/landing/