Mild Today and Friday then Colder and Windy Saturday with Snow Sunday…..AR event not in the cards for Central California anytime soon….
Thursday March 2, 2017
Posted at 10:20 am by Howard
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This is more of a discussion for the Dweebs today. I thought that I would catch up a bit with some of the techie stuff, as there are those that enjoy it.
This is a brief discussion concerning any “AR” possibilities for the central west coast next week. In looking at the western hemispheric north pacific 500MB maps; 5 day means of both EURO, GFSX and Canadian. Although there are some differences, the screaming message here is that the upper block is not nearly as amplified as it has been in January and February. Additionally, it is too far west (-WPO) for a significant AR signal for Central California. Too much energy is allowed to go over the block as well as the mean height anomaly is very near the Dateline. Over time, there is retrogression westward during week 2. In the past, this block had a much stronger positive height anomaly over Alaska and the Bering Sea. Additionally, it was found northward to 60 to 65 north. The ECMWF has it retrograding further west, week 2. This is a case for even stronger ridging along the west coast.
Now, I have said many times that the month of March can be much more challenging with the forecast models. Even so, the struggle here comes from the GOA negative height anomaly to the east, would really have to deepen in the mean, to suppress an ever strengthening eastern pacific ridge that wants to over power the jet stream to the north. Best scenario for the AR would be for it to power up into the pacific NW or BC, CAN week 2.