Unsettled Weather Pattern To Continue this Week….Ramping up next week with “Potential” for AR….
Tuesday April 11, 2017
Posted at 7:35 am by Howard
Snowfall Forecast for the Wednesday Night Thursday system:
2 to 4 inches in Town with 4 to 8 inches over Mammoth Mt
Best Accumulations will occur by early afternoon Thursday.
Light accumulations through Thursday night with snow showers.
*Climate Forecast System Shows potential for significant “AR” next week
While European Model forecasts another 4 inches of water possible over the crest by the end of next week.
From Mondays Mornings Weather Letter:
In writing this Mondays Weather Letter, I cannot help to think back to the beginning of fall in October, when the first storms hit the Eastern Sierra. I find it so fascinating that the drivers of the great winter of 2016-17 are still ongoing now since last fall. “Except of the change of ENSO”. I still see the same Teleconnections driving the storm track into California today. The same ones that brought us the big sierra storms of yesterday. I know that if it were January or February now, today, instead of April, we would be getting hammered by the same pattern that has been with us all Winter and most of the Fall.
I am beginning to think about next winter. In doing so I will focus more on ENSO. The EL Nino Southern Oscillation. Many ocean climate scientists will be extra cautious this year in forecasting a significant EL Nino because of the bust of the winter of 2015/16. Nevertheless, weather dweebs like myself are watching important changes in the sea surface temperatures, now affecting the Indian Ocean off the coast of Western Australia. Very cold water has formed in that region along its west coast. Cold water is denser than warm water and the winds will flow east toward the warm waters of eastern Australia. I will be watching to see if this colder than normal water works its way south then surrounds that country to the north along its east side. Westerly wind bursts may develop from the Indian Ocean , associated with the MJO this Spring and Summer along the equator, sending Air Sea coupled Kelvin Waves eastward toward the central eastern pacific. This subsurface anomalous warmth is what El Niño’s are made of. I’ll be focusing on this later this spring and summer, sharing with those that are interested via my Dr. Howard and the Dweebs report.
The forecast this week shows, a pattern early in the week with the upper jet mainly to our north. So today Monday should be another nice weather day. Winds will pick up Tuesday as a small system comes through, bringing the chance of some showers. On Wednesday, winds will pick up as well as increasing high clouds. Both the subtropical jet and polar jets do become confluent west of Santa Barbara well off shore. This is a different set up compared to many past storms as the bottom of a large scale trough that is confluent with this upper jet moves into Central California. The front left exit region will favor Northern CA and Oregon while its right rear entry region is focused upon the Central Sierra. Without a lot of subtropical moisture, this set up is not good for a big snow storm moving into the sierra Wednesday night and continuing into Thursday. This looks to be a light storm, not associated with a Atmospheric River. Thus snowfall amounts will be much less than the storm that brought up to 5 feet along the sierra crest last week. It appears that amounts will be in the 2 to 8 inch range at this time.
One point worth noting, the long wave trough will remain over or near California over the weekend and into the following week. So expect unsettled weather and at least light snowfall on and off through the upcoming weekend.
With the block remaining over Alaska and the Bering Sea, the upper jet is likely to remain suppressed at times into California. So more storms are likely this month….