Archive for November, 2017

Drier than normal weather pattern for the Southern 2/3 of California likley to continue as upper jet is focused over Northern CA….Expect periods of wind and a chance of snow showers Thursday and again Monday and Monday night as the next upstream’s upper Jet is again focused upon Northern CA……

The Weather over the far west is highlighted by the polar jet located over Northern California. Although there has been plenty of blocking near the Bering Sea the past week, the flow coming off Asia has been split to weakly diffluent at times. West coast weather system’s have been quite progressive with the upper jet bottoming out over Northern CA. This makes for a dry, windy pattern for the Central Sierra with below normal precipitation. This is especially true for the Southern Sierra and southern portions of the Central Sierra including Mammoth Lakes

 

Outlook:

There is some hope in the longer range models this morning as the new 11/8/17 12Z GFS control is showing more consolidated flow coming off Asia after mid month. At the same time, there is plenty of blocking in the -WPO region near the dateline.  The are an increasing number of ensembles in the GFS showing some under cutting of the westerlies with the formation of a Kona Low developing around the 18th of November. It is possible that moisture may get picked up from this area by a deep positive tilt, long wave trof extending SW from British Columbia around the 20th/21st. If this does come together, it would be more of a southern latitude system with a tropical connection or “AR” with fairly high snow levels for Central CA.  This may be followed by a colder system about the 23rd with the upper jet over Central CA as well.

For what ever its worth, the climate model,  the CFSv2  is showing the period  during week 2, which covers the 20th wet for Central CA.

Stay Tuned…the Dweebs got you covered!…….:-)

Main Branch of Upper Jet to favor the Northern Sierra this week with several systems headed for Northern and Central CA….Expect colder than normal temps….Breezy periods, light to moderate amounts the next 7 to 10 days….

Fair  weather will redevelop tonight and continue for the next few days…  Mammoth Mt reported 1 to 3 inches total with the Town of Mammoth getting a dusting. It is cold and breezy! Highs in the upper 30s today. Next upstream system will most benefit the Northern Sierra again with again light amounts expected for the Mammoth region, Thursday. (Between 1 and 6 inches over all.  I Will update Monday PM or Tuesday on amounts….

Upper jet is split into two branches this morning with one Branch over the northern part of the pacific NW and the southern branch across the desert SW and southern Rockies. As we proceed into the new week, the two jets consolidate into one strong healthy upper jet but well to the east of us. We remain in the Rear Left Quad which favors upper convergence. AKA high pressure at the surface.  The Pattern still favors migratory cyclones with the next upstream system bringing windy conditions to Mammoth Wednesday night and FLQ of the upper jet favoring The Northern Sierra again Thursday. However, with that said, the Rt  rear entry area of the upper jet (may) favor the Central Sierra Thursday. (stay tuned)

We will have a break in the weather beginning tonight through late Wednesday. Thereafter, the next  system will increase winds and bring mainly light amounts of snowfall to the Town of Mammoth Lakes early Thursday AM, through Thursday. Again, the upper jet will favor the Northern Sierra,

In retrospect, so far, the beginning of this wet season has been much more of a challenge to the medium range forecast models and thus forecasters as well.  The Dweebs will be more vigilant in noting where the upper jet track tracks. And as always, noting the front left exit region as favored, in addition to at a lesser extent the rear right entrance region…..Both areas are key to UVM.

At the moment, The MJO is close to the circle of death and thus no help from a tropical forcing factor in the short-term as it re-develops over the Indian Ocean.

Longer Range:

The big message is that the European Model is gradually pushing the upper polar jet further south week 2, as a series of cyclones progress through the west coast.  If this verifies, storms systems with higher snowfall potential will push further south the following week into the Central Sierra .  The timing is of course subject to change. However, from this point in time; looking at my calendar,  target about Monday the 13th for a storm with good Central Sierra Upper Jet Support!

This system at this point in time would have the potential to bring footage.

 

PS.

Once again, I thank the many readers of last years weather letter and offers of compensation for my service to do another weather letter this winter.  I will not be doing a letter this year as I found it too confining time wise. I do this as a passion, not as a job. I need the flexibility to update as necessary.

If one wants to compensate, the best way is that if you or if know of anyone that is looking to buy or sell resort property real estate in Mammoth Lakes; Contact me for real estate assistance. I have been a licensed real estate agent in Mammoth Lakes since 1982 with more than half my life providing assistance to buyers and sellers alike.    I currently have my license with Coldwell Banker Mammoth Real Estate. My contact cell number is 760-9141800 🙂

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

 

Cold Blustery weather expected this weekend with light amounts of snowfall expected for the Towns of Mammoth and June…..Pattern very disorganized across the Eastern Pacific…..Additional opportunities for snowfall later next week….

WX pattern across the Eastern Pacific remains very disorganized with northern stream energy more progressive leaving southern stream out of phase. End result is a weakening of the dynamics needed for meaningful precipitation as the significant upper jet is to our north and southern branch upper jet develops over head later Saturday.

This was another morning of back peddling of the QPF from CRFC,  with only .67 or 2/3′ s of an inch storm total expected for the Yosemite Valley.  Current short wave is presently producing a few flurries over the crest and will exit later this morning. Saturday thru Sunday still offer the best chance of measurable snowfall for the area but don’t get too excited as amounts look to be more in the light category. Between 3 to 6 inches in town and between 6 to 12 inches above 9,000 feet.  The good news is that it will be plenty cold for snow making on Mammoth MT this weekend  and through much of next week…

The longer range if you want to believe it show the upper “polar” jet extending further south into Central CA. If that should occur, there will be better chances for more significant snowfall in Mammoth.   The Dweebs will not get two excited but watch the pattern unfold across the Central and Eastern Pacific next week…. The “seasonal change” will likely provide more meaningful effects upon the current EP weather patterns later this month, as we transit to Meteorological Winter in less than 4 weeks….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………….:-)