Archive for year 2017

Main Branch of Upper Jet to favor the Northern Sierra this week with several systems headed for Northern and Central CA….Expect colder than normal temps….Breezy periods, light to moderate amounts the next 7 to 10 days….

Fair  weather will redevelop tonight and continue for the next few days…  Mammoth Mt reported 1 to 3 inches total with the Town of Mammoth getting a dusting. It is cold and breezy! Highs in the upper 30s today. Next upstream system will most benefit the Northern Sierra again with again light amounts expected for the Mammoth region, Thursday. (Between 1 and 6 inches over all.  I Will update Monday PM or Tuesday on amounts….

Upper jet is split into two branches this morning with one Branch over the northern part of the pacific NW and the southern branch across the desert SW and southern Rockies. As we proceed into the new week, the two jets consolidate into one strong healthy upper jet but well to the east of us. We remain in the Rear Left Quad which favors upper convergence. AKA high pressure at the surface.  The Pattern still favors migratory cyclones with the next upstream system bringing windy conditions to Mammoth Wednesday night and FLQ of the upper jet favoring The Northern Sierra again Thursday. However, with that said, the Rt  rear entry area of the upper jet (may) favor the Central Sierra Thursday. (stay tuned)

We will have a break in the weather beginning tonight through late Wednesday. Thereafter, the next  system will increase winds and bring mainly light amounts of snowfall to the Town of Mammoth Lakes early Thursday AM, through Thursday. Again, the upper jet will favor the Northern Sierra,

In retrospect, so far, the beginning of this wet season has been much more of a challenge to the medium range forecast models and thus forecasters as well.  The Dweebs will be more vigilant in noting where the upper jet track tracks. And as always, noting the front left exit region as favored, in addition to at a lesser extent the rear right entrance region…..Both areas are key to UVM.

At the moment, The MJO is close to the circle of death and thus no help from a tropical forcing factor in the short-term as it re-develops over the Indian Ocean.

Longer Range:

The big message is that the European Model is gradually pushing the upper polar jet further south week 2, as a series of cyclones progress through the west coast.  If this verifies, storms systems with higher snowfall potential will push further south the following week into the Central Sierra .  The timing is of course subject to change. However, from this point in time; looking at my calendar,  target about Monday the 13th for a storm with good Central Sierra Upper Jet Support!

This system at this point in time would have the potential to bring footage.

 

PS.

Once again, I thank the many readers of last years weather letter and offers of compensation for my service to do another weather letter this winter.  I will not be doing a letter this year as I found it too confining time wise. I do this as a passion, not as a job. I need the flexibility to update as necessary.

If one wants to compensate, the best way is that if you or if know of anyone that is looking to buy or sell resort property real estate in Mammoth Lakes; Contact me for real estate assistance. I have been a licensed real estate agent in Mammoth Lakes since 1982 with more than half my life providing assistance to buyers and sellers alike.    I currently have my license with Coldwell Banker Mammoth Real Estate. My contact cell number is 760-9141800 🙂

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

 

Cold Blustery weather expected this weekend with light amounts of snowfall expected for the Towns of Mammoth and June…..Pattern very disorganized across the Eastern Pacific…..Additional opportunities for snowfall later next week….

WX pattern across the Eastern Pacific remains very disorganized with northern stream energy more progressive leaving southern stream out of phase. End result is a weakening of the dynamics needed for meaningful precipitation as the significant upper jet is to our north and southern branch upper jet develops over head later Saturday.

This was another morning of back peddling of the QPF from CRFC,  with only .67 or 2/3′ s of an inch storm total expected for the Yosemite Valley.  Current short wave is presently producing a few flurries over the crest and will exit later this morning. Saturday thru Sunday still offer the best chance of measurable snowfall for the area but don’t get too excited as amounts look to be more in the light category. Between 3 to 6 inches in town and between 6 to 12 inches above 9,000 feet.  The good news is that it will be plenty cold for snow making on Mammoth MT this weekend  and through much of next week…

The longer range if you want to believe it show the upper “polar” jet extending further south into Central CA. If that should occur, there will be better chances for more significant snowfall in Mammoth.   The Dweebs will not get two excited but watch the pattern unfold across the Central and Eastern Pacific next week…. The “seasonal change” will likely provide more meaningful effects upon the current EP weather patterns later this month, as we transit to Meteorological Winter in less than 4 weeks….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………….:-)

A last day spike in high temps will occur today then a cooling trend through early next week….Snowfall is expected beginning later Friday for the upper elevations with the snow level lowering throughout the weekend……Heavy snowfall is expected later Saturday and Saturday night with Winter Storm Conditions….Storm Door to remain open for at least another week…….

11/2/2017 Thursday AM update:

European Model wins out!

The European model’s exceptional physic’s has been consistent in indicating a much less AR for the Central and Southern Sierra from the beginning. The GFS has now come in line with the Euro and diminishes the subtropical fetch from the SW into the Central and Southern Sierra.  The WPC that touted over 3 inches of water EQ some 3 to 4 days ago has really back peddled on the QPF the past 24 hours.   In addition, the emphasis of the QPF is now the Northern Sierra like the EURO has touted all along, not the wetter and further south Canadian and GFS models.

What does this mean?   Although it will be snow in town for the most part for the entire storm, amounts will be less than a foot; more like 4 to 8 inches while the upper elevations will squeak out a foot or a bit better, especially over the crest where orographic’s will come into play, It is possible that accumulations over Mammoth Mt may be between 12 to 18 inches this weekend, especially considering the snow to water ratio which will be about 12:1 over the upper elevations 10,000’+ on Sunday.

 

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12:45PM 11/1/17 update:

 

Latest 12z Global models runs are in now and the big message is that the GFS has been too wet hanging on to the “AR” too long. The European model has always been regarded as the gold standard in many ways. Although it is not “Always” correct, it is the most correct model most often in my opinion, especially when it is consistent against a consistent GFS.

So here is my updated thinking at the moment for snowfall amounts for the greater Mammoth Area.

1 to 2 feet at and above 9,000 feet by Monday AM

6 to 12 inches in the town of Mammoth the same time frame.

 


FROM 9:30am 11/1/17

There is enough consistency in the models for Mono County’s first winter storm that will bring up to a foot+ of snow in the Town of Mammoth, beginning by Friday night and throughout the days Saturday and Sunday….The Snow Level will eventually fall to between 5000 and 6000 feet before this storm is over sometime Monday. Most of the precipitation will fall as snow in the Town of Mammoth.  I am doing a blend now of the ECMWF and GFS as they have been consistent with the effects of the AR in their own right, but still differ quite a bit from each other, The Dweebs feel that  between 15 to 30 inches of snow is possible over the higher terrain above 9000 feet over the weekend.

Of course if the GFS’s handling of the AR is better, greater amounts would occur. Both the GFS and Canadian Models handle the phasing of the southern branch of the Polar Jet more favorably for snowfall for the Central Sierra than the European. They target the northern parts of the Southern Sierra and especially the Central Sierra best by keep the “AR” going another 24 hours!!  With still 3 days before the event, there is still time to make adjustments, both to snowfall estimates in town and over the crest. It is possible that amounts could go significantly higher if the European should agree more toward the GFS by a more enhanced and protracted AR.  At time, the European is not as wet here with more emphasis on the Northern Sierra.

The main message here is that winter weather conditions will arrive in the sierra this weekend, and once the snow in on the ground at Resorts levels and the higher elevations, it will be here to stay for the next 5 to 6 months….

Hope you all have had a great Summer and Fall…..Mammoth is now ready for its other seasons……

 

The Extended shows another storm about the middle of next week.

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)