Archive for year 2018

Another day of Scattered Thunderstorms then drier and warmer weather expected for the weekend…..

There has been a nice few days of thunderstorms in the high country with hail yesterday over the Lakes Basin.  Expect one more day of it today, then a much drier and warmer airmass sets in. Strong height rises occur Friday and Saturday much like the pattern we have had all summer that has been anomalously amplified across the CONUS.

El Nino is expected to strengthen this fall and Winter….  Lets hope it is not a *Modoki El Nino!  Highs will be in the 80s this weekend with lows in the 40s.

*The El Niño Modoki is associated with strong anomalous warming in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical Pacific . Associated with this SSTA pattern is distinct warming and cooling which effect teleconnections very differently from teleconnection patterns of the conventional El Niño. Modoki El Ninos are often but not always dry in California. So confidence in a wet El Nino Winter for California is more limited….Will This be a Modoki El Nino Winter?   Only time will tell. Should know later in the Fall….

“Modoki” events:   1957–59, 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

*

 

 

Change in Pattern Underway with a Slightly Cooler Weekend with Zephyr Winds during Afternoon and Evening Hours…Details below

Sunday AM Update:

 

Persides meteor shower peaks tonight…mainly after Midnight….See if you can spot a few…

 

A summer storm moving into Washington State will flatten our strong high pressure system over California and Nevada. This will initially bring an increase of afternoon and evening breezes to the area along with cooler temperatures. Monsoon moisture and dynamics along with Mid Level moisture from Tropical Storm John will add to the mix early next week. This all relates to an increase of thunderstorms beginning Saturday that will be isolated at first, with better aerial coverage Monday through Wednesday next week.  The longer range does show the upper ridge rebuilding back into California, going into the following weekend of the 18th.

 

Temperatures at 8000 feet have been in the mid 80s of late. Expect them to be a few degrees cooler Friday and some 5+ degrees cooler over the weekend, Highs will cool into the mid to upper 70 by Sunday. Lows at night will cool to the 40s by Saturday or Sunday.

 

Smoke:

We got a breather Thursday night here in Mammoth; no pun intended. However, with the upper level winds on the increase later today and tonight, expect the potential for smokier conditions Friday night, in Mammoth from the Lion Fire.  This is mainly due to the forecast for more breeze later today and this evening. The Lion fire is reported to be 70% contained.

Upshot; Open your windows this morning if you have not done so already to get the heat out of your homes…be ready to close them later today as tonight it may be smokey.   This forecast is from the experimental Smoke Model  see: https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/

When going to this site, see section near-surface smoke, then click on the check mark loop.

More later on the moisture surge for next week later this weekend.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

Well Above Normal Temperatures have returned to the High Country with Breezy Weather expected Friday and Saturday….Will the Upper Ridge Rebuild Again Next Week for More Very Warm Weather?

Smoky conditions during the early evening hours last night dissipated this morning. Strong high pressure aloft will concentrate smoke over the fires then as Zephyr winds increase during the afternoon, they will carry some eastward Wednesday. So expect good air quality in the morning with poor air quality returning during the early to mid afternoon hours Wednesday.  Expect another very warm day today with highs in the mid 80s in Mammoth…..104 at the Bishop AP. Little change in temperatures are expected for Thursday. By Friday a Trof to our north will weaken the upper ridge and allow some cooling to move into our area with highs closer to 80. Gusty Winds may whip up local fires in the process. By Far…the worst air quality will be to the north of Mammoth Lakes today and Thursday. Areas Down Wind of the Donnell fire over the northern portion of Mono will have the worst air quality.

Outside of a few isolated TSRWS….it will remain warm breezy and dry Friday and Saturday afternoons…

Low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest Friday will bring an enhanced Zephyr with west winds in the 25 to 30MPH range. The Trof which moves through the Pacific Northwest Friday will lift to the northeast on Saturday. Breezy westerly afternoon winds
will continue through the weekend, but are expected to be lighter Saturday and Sunday.

 

Outlook: Next Week:

Some model runs try to bring in more troughing while recent runs are redeveloping the upper ridge over the far west again.  Will stick with persistence as anomalous warmth is the way of this Summer. The redevelopment of the upper ridge is the preferred solution for the Dweebs….. Expect highs early next week in the low 80s…and lows in the upper 40s and low 50s…

Latest GFS run at 06Z on the 9th of AUG has 500MB heights once again building north of 594DM later next week. So, mid 80s in Mammoth is quite possible in our future again 2nd half of next week….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

 

PS  Persides meteor shower will be flying high this weekend…..it will be a new moon….If it is not too smoky…try to catch a few and put them in your pocket…..Its good luck…….;-)