Archive for year 2018

Warmer than Normal temperatures to Continue this week with Isolated Convection Mid-Week….Upper Trof or Cut-Off Low may Play Havoc with the Fishermen this Weekend….

An upper ridge will strengthen over the west coast toward mid week increasing heights and temperatures. At the same time, a Trough of low pressure located at 140west Monday AM will become cut-off from the westerlies. Both the Upper Level Ridge and Cut-Off Low will shift east later this week allowing the upper levels to cool somewhat, thereby increasing lapse rates and instability. As a result, Mono County will experience more afternoon build ups beginning Tuesday, with isolated showers and or a thunderstorm possible. This will be mainly during the late afternoon and before sunset. The Fishing Weekend Outlook is a bit muddled as both ECMWF and GFS global models are at odds on whether the upper low comes in as an open trough or cut off low. The former would mean a lot more wind…  Stay Tuned, as soon as the models are in agreement,  I will post the Fishmass forecast a bit later this week.

 

In the meantime,  expect highs in the mid 60s in Mammoth and lows in the 30s through this Thursday. Winds will be light.

Closed Low on Thursday will keep snow showers going untill the Sunsets Thursday Night…Expect a Rapid Warm Up this weekend setting stage for more Spring Thaw conditions…..Cut Off Low next week will Tease the Sierra with a Spring Time Thunderstorm Pattern….However Timing is unclear…Maybe Mid week or the end of the week….or ????

Short term forecast shows continued snow showers this afternoon with clearing tonight. It will be cold Thursday night with lows in the teens, then highs in the mid 50s on Friday and 60s this weekend. Winds will be light this weekend.

 

 

From a Weather Predictability point of view, Mid Spring weather patterns are such that the weatherman needs both patience and a sense of humor. A Cut off low pattern will develop next week and the timing is mid week…the weekend or maybe not at all!  Models having difficulty where the spinning top will develop and where it goes.  In the meantime, enjoy both the weather and those high temperature over the weekend, with highs in the 60s with lows moving above freezing by Sunday AM.  The weather will remain dry and warm through Tuesday at least!

 

 

After a warm up the next few days….unsettled weather returns next week with one storm exiting Monday Night and another weaker system exiting Thursday…..Thereafter, the weather pattern is making efforts to transition to a warmer drier pattern……

Although another round of cold unsettled weather is likely Sunday night into Monday night, and possibly again Wednesday night into Thursday, there are signs that the long-awaited transition to warmer, spring weather over California is beginning to take shape in the not too distant future..  For the time being, the long-range outlook, which is typically unstable this time of the year continues to show the active pattern of the past 6 weeks continuing into next week. However, the polar Jet looks like it will shift north by the following weekend. Much weaker westerlies are progged into the last week of the month, with the exception of one cold storm the end of the month.  Overall, this means that unsettled periods are shown to be less frequent during weeks 2 and 3. However, this is not to say that we are done for the Spring, as the usual cut off low season has yet to develop. Furthermore,  the weakening of the upper jet over the pacific at this latitude, will change the way precipitation develops over the sierra. Convection, upper diffluence and unstable air that accompanies, will play a more dominant role in the precipitation process over California. This is in contrast to the strong upper divergence of Winter and early Spring that the upper jet supplies.

As far as sensible weather, the next few days will be warmer with highs in Mammoth reaching about 60 by Saturday and the chilly lows in the teens of late will rise into the 30s by Sunday. The next weather system moving into the High Country Sunday will bring an increase of wind by afternoon with snowfall developing Sunday night and continuing into Monday night. The storm has the potential to bring at least a foot to the Upper Mountain by Monday evening.

For your powder hounds…..plan on Tuesday morning the 17th for one of the last cold powder days of Spring, as the next storm may not arrive until the very end of the month. A few more storms are possible in May…

 

The Dweeber…………:-)