Archive for year 2018

Warmer than Normal Temperatures Likely to Continue through the middle of next week…..Monsoon moisture to remain out of California for the next 7 days….Tropical storm will move up the Baja Coast….May bring moisture into So-Cal later the first week of July…

Summer has arrived and as expected this year, with above normal temps as well as the usual afternoon Zephyr breezes. Dry weather associated with west to south west flow is typical for June as although the westerlies are well to the north, they still can force a dry southwest flow into CA with the effect of shunting monsoon moisture well to the east. Thus climo suggests a dry stable air mass is quite likely for much of the last 10 days of June, post the Fathers Day, Climo Freeze.

 

OPINE:

In that we are in Solar Minimum, there are though’s that suggest that this summer will be highlighted by more troughing than usual, promoting a Summer with less than normal thunderstorms and stronger Zephyr winds. So if this is true, this summer may end up shorter and Fall weather may descend upon us earlier, if upper troughing off shore is more persistent all summer.  By the way, the NOAA is forecasting a hot summer with warmer than normal temps and with equal chances for normal precipitation for Mammoth. The infamous “Old Farmers Almanac” uses the solar cycle in part in their long-range predictions. They are calling for a dry Summer with below normal temps. This suggests to me that California will be subject to the troughing idea this summer which would also may lead to an earlier start to Winter.

EL Nino….

The El Nino drums are beating again…The spread of warm water under the surface that moves west to east just north of the equator during an El Nino development is well underway and may reach moderate strength much later this year.

See:   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml 

 

As we know now through the many research papers, a powerhouse El Nino does not guarantee California a wet winter. The SSTA’s heat needs to be located in the right spot, “longitude wise”. Big prediction spoilers seem to be more associated with the Modoki El Nino where significantly cooler temps in comparison to the ENSO 3.4 region are located in the ENSO regions 3 and 1+2.   1+2 is along the Central American Coast.

QBO (Strato Winds along Equator) is currently in its Easterly Phase and will likely flip later this Fall. The westerly phase is more associated with El Nino.

Sunday AM Update:

6/24/2018….Did a bit more research on the currently developing El Nino. Found that the Equatorial Subsurface waters >100Meters meters below the surface is quite warm; as warm as +6F to+9F above normal in some spots. This is quite significant and leads to the potential for even a strong Event.  However, what will not be determined until much later in the year is whether this will be a “full basin” El Nino or the big let down for California, the Modoki El Nino. The latter can give California a dry winter and make for a cold Eastern US.

 

Back to Weather:

Longer Range Week two models show a strong tropical storm moving NW well off the Baja Coast.  The GFS has strong troughing for Early July possibly phasing with it.  Stay Tuned as the weather after the Fourth of July may get interesting for at the least Southern CA.

Sunday AM Update: Models are back peddling at this time for any effects from those TS upon California except for high surf on south facing beaches.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

 

 

First heat wave of the year is upon us with highs 10 to 15 degree above normal this weekend…Pattern to remain dry into next week…..

Upper Low from the weekend was over Idaho this morning tracking east. Increasing heights with high pressure building into the north will bring very warm temps to the high country through early next week. Last “Climo” freeze at resort levels for Mono County is now behind us.

 

Modified for Mono County AFD From KRNO:

High pressure strengthens over Northeast California and western Nevada through Wednesday, bringing 5 to 10 degrees of warming each day with highs reaching the 80s at resort levels and 90s (western NV valleys) by Wednesday…..100s for the Owens Valley.  A weak wave moving by to the north Wednesday night will induce an increase in winds (gusts 25-30 mph, locally to 35 mph, Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will bring heightened safety concerns for boaters on area lakes.  Fire concerns will also rise somewhat in Basin Areas with dried out grasses.

Thursday, the warming trend will be halted as the weak wave moves by to the north, although highs will still top out a toasty 7-10 degrees above average. Breezy conditions are expected once again in the afternoon as the Mono Zephyr kicks in, although speeds will not be anything unusual.

LONG TERM…Friday into early next week…The overall pattern will focus on the evolution of the subtropical ridge and any short waves passing by to the north. The ridge retrogrades off the coast briefly over the weekend as a short wave drops down the Front Range of the Rockies. Then builds back with Little temperature change expected and pattern to continue dry.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

 

Wrapping up the last 10 days of Spring will be EZ for the Weatherman with just warming and cooling a few thunderstorms and some wind to consider…..

It’s the last full week of Spring and the Dweebs are taking a look through the end of this week for any significant weather. The week for the most part will be affected 1st by an upper ridge over the pacific NW bringing dry warmer than normal weather through Wednesday. A cool down follows going into the weekend as a new ridge builds further west and pulls down cool western Canadian Air over the far west.  An upper level low pressure system developing over the Northern Great Basin early the following week will drop south during the last few days of Spring and may put Mammoth in a favorable area for some thunder-storm action. I have to say, that is a long shot outlook this far out….but inquiring minds may want to know!  🙂

The Summer Solstice arrives on June 21st this year for California. The Sun reaches north to the Tropic of Cancer at 23.5 north, at 3:07AM that Thursday Morning…. 23.5 north is just north of Cabo San Lucas for example.

 

Our Shoulder Season is wrapping up and it is almost time for Summer Fun!!!!

 

Have a Great Week…..Next update next Monday a week away as the Dweebs take a look the beginning of Summer…….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:-)