Monday AM:

Only changes this morning to the discussion below is to highlight the potential of “AR” moisture from the subtropical jet later this weekend.  There is a trend in the GFS of pushing a portion of this off shore AR further north up into Central CA. At the moment it is too soon to forecast any significant AR with any certainty other than to say that a more dynamic system will tap deeper moisture from an AR off the Southern CA coast this weekend….The Dweebs well keep a wary eye on that.

The other change is in the timing of the main precipitation push, which now highlights Saturday Night into Sunday instead of Sunday night. This late weekend storm has the potential of bringing several feet of wetter snow to the upper elevations through Monday with nearly non stop snowfall possibly between its exit and the timing of the passage of the main mother low which may slow down through the 15th and not come through until Friday night the 16th.  We could see another 5 to 9 feet over the crest should all of that happen……Miracle March anyone?

Another comment…..Some times patterns will repeat themselves…Watch for another cold Low that may form off the coast of the pacific NW tapping Arctic Cold that may try to repeat what happened last weekend for around the 19th of March. It is later in the year but well see what shapes up….

For those interested in the snow level….It looks to range from 7500 to 6500 feet later this week. The following week looks to be colder with lighter fluffier snow toward mid-week with lower snow levels.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)


After last weekends monster….The weather will be more tranquil the next few days. There will be periods of wind, clouds and some showers possible by mid-week.  Daytime highs will moderate well into the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday with nighttime lows in the teens and 20s.

Tonight’s new model runs show an interesting analysis at 00z Monday.  Namely, an upper height anomaly that stretches from the Philippine’s, northeast along most shores of the western pacific eastward across the dateline to the Gulf of Alaska.  I see no significant troughing anywhere over the pacific at this time. The pattern highlights two distant polar and subtropical jets. The Subtropical jet is being enhanced over Hawaii and the polar jet around 50 to 55 north just north of the Aleutians, Hawaii looks to be in for some good rain the middle of this week!

The upper polar jet looks to be doing some wave breaking Wednesday and this will cause the current cut off low along 140 west to become stretched out over the next 3 to 4 days. This process will enhance the subtropical jet in its underbelly and extend it to the California Coast by Tuesday/Wednesday. Precipitable water does increase with isotropic lift expected over the colder air. So the chance of mainly light precipitation is expected Thursday into possibly Friday. Again it appears to be quite windy Wednesday over the Crest.

The pattern by the end of this week does become more amplified. The key positive height anomaly amplifies near the dateline and becomes positive tilt over the weekend. This allows the deepening of a significant trough over the Eastern Pacific which kicks out the remains of the old cut off low next Sunday night and Monday. The suggestion is that some decent snowfall will result from that storm. Nothing like what we had last weekend, nevertheless the chance of some moderate snowfall.

Longer Range:

Eventually the large scale Trof that develops later this week comes though itself about the 15th of March with the possibility of a major storm.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)