Archive for year 2018

Very Warm Weather to continue for the high country as the Continental Subtropical high has found a home over the far southwest…..

High temperatures remained well into the 80s in Mammoth as upper heights at 500MB remained well north of 594DM.  It appears that heights will continue very high as the Subtropical Continental high remains pretty much parked over the far west through the end of this month. This raises the question of whether there will be records for consecutive days above 80 in Mammoth and 100s in bishop.  There were more thunderstorms throughout Mono County today. However, that should diminish with time. The upper ridge will be come more east-west orientated next week with more westerly flow into the Eastern Sierra during the 2nd half of next week. This is a dry pattern with stronger zephyr winds into the Bluzza weekend….  Expect highs in mammoth through the end of the month into the mid 80s with nights in the low to mid 50s. Some cooling is expected in early August…..

Week 2 and 3:

Something to watch out for….

Sometime during the period between week 2 and 3; “the week after the Bluzza fest”….there is going to be a pattern change to one of at least weak troughing over the Eastern Pacific to possible anomalous troughing for early to mid August.. Its effects could mean anything from just some cooling and breezy to possibly windy weather, to the possibility of hurricane moisture coming up from a dying hurricane off Baja, Mex.

The Dweebs will give you periodic updates on this pattern change next week as it develops and explain what may happen….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

Airmass modifacation underway with an increase of afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the weekend….Saturday afternoon and Sunday look particularly active…

Saturday AM:

Late yesterday there was a series of strong thunderstorms in Mammoth that produced heavy rainfall amounts between .47 and .74 hundreds of an inch within an hour. Heavy runoff occurred and some minor street flooding was observed. Todays convective outlook is still active with showers and thunderstorms once again developing during the afternoon with mid to late afternoon expected to bring the heaviest rains… The only change in the pattern worth noting is that the storms will be moving more today. Yesterdays cells were pretty stationary leading to very heavy rain.  Today, there is expected to be more movement, and that  “may” lead to lighter amounts.

Next Week:

Upper Continental high builds westward the new week, leading to atmospheric capping with an upper warm layer expected to develop my mid-week. This will suppress convection and result in warmer temperatures as well.  The freezing level rises to 17000 feet Wednesday into Thursday, with 700MB temps 15C+ by Thursday. Expect a very warm 2nd half of next week with dry days and highs in the mid to upper 80s in Mammoth with highs 104 to 108 in the Owens Valley by Wednesday and especially Thursday the 26th.

At the moment the week 2 outlook shows Bluzza Weekend looking warm and dry with southwest flow…

 

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Air-mass modification is underway with wetter afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected through the weekend. This is due to the east west upper ridge over California earlier in the week that has settled southeast over the four corner states. There is an “Easterly Wave” that will move up through California this weekend increasing instability, mainly Saturday afternoon into Sunday. That period seems to have the potential to be the wettest this weekend.
Otherwise, the weekend will be a bit cooler with the added moisture as afternoon cloudiness will develop earlier, blocking sunshine. High temperatures will cool to the 70s this weekend, nights will be in the upper 40s to low 50s….Excellent sleeping weather!

Excerpt from WSFO RNO discussion:
Atmospheric moisture will be on the increase through the weekend so storms will become quite wet and capable of producing heavy rainfall. There will be flash flooding concerns due to potential training
storms, ample moisture, and increased instability. Despite all this, dry lightning strikes outside of the rain core could still potentially ignite new fires but a widespread dry lightning outbreak is not expected.
Thunderstorm coverage is likely to increase Saturday into Sunday with upper level waves potentially contributing to nocturnal thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday.
Both Saturday and Sunday look to be particularly active with the main threats being flash flooding, hail, and abundant lightning.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

Very Warm Weather returned to the high country Tuesday with Wednesday the peak in the heat….East West Ridge to slide Eastward Thursday with Southeast flow returning for more afternoon and evening thunderstorms…..

Thursday July 19th Update:

Very Warm temperatures expected for the high country and Owens Valley next week with possible high temperature records Mid Week….

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Wednesday Temp Update:  Hi Temperature in Mammoth was 88 degrees Wednesday.  This was the warmest day of the Summer so far and the climatically warmest temperatures of the year.  So if it does not reach 88 again or warmer this year, Wednesday would have been our climatic warmest day.

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It was a very warm day Tuesday with a high in Mammoth of 86 degrees.  The models show an East West ridge which has kept the atmosphere capped with little convection in the afternoon other than a brief isolated thunderstorm over the sierra Tuesday PM.  Todays weather will be the warmest for the High Country and Owens valley with a high again near 106 expected in Bishop. The Upper high at 500MB reached 598DM over the top of Bishop yesterday and will remain there today. By Thursday AM, it slides SE to St George Utah. As it does, an easterly wave develops in its underbelly, which provides for air mass modification and good SE flow up from the deserts of SE CA and SW AZ.   The result will be a rapid increase in thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into the night.   With 700mb moisture in place, mainly diurnal afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue into early next week. Not too sure how moist it will get by this Friday.  Will follow the PWATs and report later…  Plan on afternoon convection each and every afternoon beginning Thursday…

 

Next week:

 

The GFS and ECMWF and Canadian have differences in the strength of the continental high over California early next week.  The GFS is trying to bring a record heat wave over the southern state while the ECMWF has it warm but no records…..There has been some mention from forecasters that there has been a bias in the GFS to make it too hot.  Well see soon..  The 06Z Wednesday GFS has a large scale scorching 600DM high over Southern California Tuesday night. Both the Canadian and ECMWF are both a bit weaker with this upper high and further east.

Winter seems so long away!

 

The Dweeber……………….:-)