Got email today from one of my O’l favorite lead forecasters that has since retired from WSFO RENO.  Yea know…old lead forecasters never die…..they just fade away to their favorite Golf Course or spend time doing Soaring Forecasts when the wave is right!

The propagation of energy from the western pacific is back in action tonight via Hovemuller theory as three significant surface waves spin up off the coast of Japan in the coming days. Energy from the first will be coming through Saturday in the form of a northwest slider.  Mammoth might actually get a little light snow from it Friday night. With more short wave action following. The main message is for wind and cooling. Winds over the crest could reach 120 MPH Saturday AM.

The next Surface low spinning up with leading isobar crossing 140E occurs this Friday morning. The energy is forecasted to come through California Tuesday AM the 28th.  The next shot of energy through California would be the 3rd. The GFS’s timing is quite a bit different so it will interesting to see how it all works out.

I think that we are finally on the right track now. The tempo is picking up with strengthening surface lows coming off Japan. Eventually, the upper ridge off the west coast will retrograde westward with more serious systems that will effect California later in the first week of March.

For the past few days, the MJO has stalled out in early Phase space 2. The flip in the PNA usually comes in Late Phase space 2 into 3. So the flip is taking longer. It was supposed to occur in late February. By the time MJO gets to 3…(if it does) A full latitude trough should be set up along the west coast….. Remember, the global models do not get the tropical forcing into the models until about 5 to 7 day ahead…..So at the moment the PNA is still Positive like it has been for quite awhile.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Upper high builds in bringing a warmer day today  50s for highs

Passing short wave brings in brief cooling Thursday with highs in the 40s

then Warming again Friday with highs in the 50s….

NW slider will bring cooler weather over the weekend with breezy weather Saturday and cooling bottoming out Sunday.

Although there may be some Showers Saturday….nothing measurable is expected.

Citing the ESRL short term ensemble at 09Z the 22nd, the best chance for snow showers will be between 4:00am and 7:00am Saturday……Less then (.01) expected

The Dweebs are still expecting retrogression in the long wave upper ridge

Sometime during the first week of March leading to a storm….

Water On Mammoth Pass:

It appears that Mammoth Pass is about 25% of normal for this time of the year. However, still ahead of the driest year on record during the winter of 1977.  We would have to be skunked the rest of the Winter/Spring to equal that winter as far as water deficit.  That will not happen likely this year….

http://www.ladwp.com/ladwp/cms/ladwp013390.pdf

The Dweeber…………………….:-)

Over running high clouds will continue as short wave energy navigates the upper ridge off shore into the Pacific Northwest. By the weekend, strong amplification occurs as a NW upper jet cuts into Northern Ca.. This results in cooler breezy weather over the weekend with strong winds over the Sierra Crest. The winds may begin as early as Friday night but increase Saturday

Again…the northwest upper jet cuts diagonally through Northern Ca with the EC deeper…showing the upper jet coming in just to the south of us.  This would be a bit better for precipitation.  However, at this time the system is not shown to have a lot of moisture with it.   So it looks cold windy and unsettled for the weekend.

The outlook shows colder than normal temps as the new week begins with the chance of snow showers…..as the end of February draws to a close. Longer range still shows a pretty good trof during the first week of March.

The Dweeber……………………:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Temps will be in the 30s Monday…. then 40s Tuesday and near 50 Wednesday.  It looks like a dry week ahead….

More Later….

The Dweeber……….:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.