Another 4 to 5 Feet Expected for the Town of Mammoth by Monday Night…..Storm Number 2 Rolls in Friday into Early Saturday morning…Followed by High Impact Winter Storm Saturday night into Monday leading up to the wettest January on record…..

Full on Blizzard Expected for Saturday Night into Sunday for Highway 395 in Mono County…. Everyone must carry Chains this weekend including 4WD with Snow tires.

The following is a excerpt from the National Weather Service in Reno. They stress readiness for storm #3…

The Dweebs will not update again until Monday night….

WSFO RENO:

MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND:

*Second in a series of three winter storms impacts the region today into Saturday morning.

*Lull in the weather Saturday afternoon is your window of
opportunity to make preparations for the next storm.

*Powerful Winter Storm to impact the Sierra AND western Nevada
Sunday into Monday.

*Below are some of the concerns, impacts, and preparation measures
you can take for the Sun-Mon storm from yesterday`s discussion.

WHAT CAN YOU DO:
* For communities in the higher terrain: Tahoe Basin, Mono County
  (looking at you Mammoth), and Virginia City. While there is
  potential for some unanticipated impacts, such as deck, roof, or
  carport collapses, local officials are extremely concerned about
  more downed trees across powerlines, roadways, and into homes. Dig
  out and clear as much snow as possible before the next storm moves
  into the area. Snow removal will become extremely difficult as
  feet of snow piles up. Prepare for extended periods of power
  outages, more downed trees, as well as being stuck in your
  residence. Local authorities are recommending enough non-
  perishable food for up to a week. Listen closely to local law
  enforcement and fire officials for recommendations.

SHORT TERM…

The main push of snowfall is beginning to impact the Sierra early Friday morning across the Sierra. Expect deteriorating driving
conditions through the Sierra this morning with chain controls already in effect for all open Sierra passes. This next round of
snowfall will provide another 1 to 2 feet across the Sierra through Saturday morning with the heaviest snowfall roughly from 6am to 6pm
before lightening up somewhat this evening into Saturday afternoon. Not expecting snowfall to completely stop on Saturday between storms
but most likely will be a continuous period of light to moderate snowfall through the weekend until the next and stronger storm
arrives Saturday night into Sunday (See the Long Term discussion for details on this storm).

LONG TERM…Saturday Evening through Friday…

* Blizzard conditions likely in the Sierra on Sunday.
* Sunday could be one of the heaviest snow events western Nevada has
seen in years.
* Be prepared for extreme travel delays and potential road closures
and power outages.

The strongest of the three storms this week is still slated to move into the region late Saturday night, continuing to impact the region
through Monday night. The heaviest precipitation is anticipated on Sunday which in conjunction with strong winds is likely to create
blizzard conditions and road closures in the Sierra. This is also shaping up to potentially be one of the heaviest snow events western Nevada has
seen in years. Significant travel impacts are likely Saturday night through Monday morning, with lesser impacts lasting into Monday
night as the snow turns to lighter showers.

 

WX Discussion:

A strong westerly 150+ kt jet is positioned across the Sierra into western Nevada on Sunday with the first push of precipitation
associated with this storm. This will help with both upslope enhancement into the Sierra in addition to spillover into western
Nevada. The second enhancement to the storm will come Sunday night as a surface front and vorticity maximum interact and once again
increase snowfall rates. Instability showers will then continue Monday, tapering off Monday night.

There is warming aloft present in soundings as the first portion of this system moves into the region, however, these profiles are
staying below freezing at all levels. Have allowed a rain/snow mix in the lowest valleys Sunday morning to account for this warm
layer, but feel the more likely scenario will be a period of heavy, wet snow. As the colder air filters in Sunday, snow ratios
will increase with the character of the snow becoming more powdery.

The main change to the forecast was to continue the trend of increasing liquid precipitation totals and therefore snow amounts
for this storm, especially on Sunday. Snowfall rates in the Sierra could exceed 2-4″ an hour during the peak of the storm with white
out conditions due to heavy snow and blowing snow. Current expectations are 3 to 4 feet of additional snow in the high Sierra
with 12 to 30 inches in the Tahoe Basin and for communities along Highway 395 in Mono County. Into western Nevada, totals through
the Greater Reno/Sparks/Carson City areas could reach 6 to 14 inches on valley floors with 1 to 2 feet in foothill locations,
including the Virginia City Highlands. Farther east across western Nevada, 3 to 8 inches of snow is possible.

Road closures and power outages are possible, especially in the Sierra, so be sure to prepare during the relatively quiet period on
Saturday. If you have snow on your roof, carport, deck, etc take the time to clear it off because additional heavy snow will continue and
structures could fail under the weight. The other concern will be the chance for trees to fall. Many trees are damaged from the past
drought, then have had loads of snow piled on top. In addition, the ground is saturated, so the strong winds will easily be able to
damage if not topple weak trees.

Tuesday through Friday conditions will be dry with a ridge building across the west. With the anticipated snow on the ground, this will
lead to strong inversions developing through the week and poor mixing. We will have to see if the inversion also leads to areas
with fog and low stratus, but will leave out of the forecast for now until we see how the storm Sunday plays out. –Dawn

 

Good Luck Mammoth! …………………………………:-)

 

Next Series of Storms make there way into the High County Today with a Rich Moisture Plume for Storm #1….Amounts for the Town of Mammoth 8 to 16 inches by Mid Morning Thursday…..

Thursday the 19th….

 

Mammoth Mt reported 20 to 30 inches of new this morning. Here at Mammothweather near the village, 16 inches of new has accumulated overnight. The Sierra is close to a record snowpack for this time of the year.  The Dweebs are concerned about a significant “AR” event in February on this record snowpack.  Although there is no “AR” in the forecast now or in the outlook period….Parts of the Central Valley maybe primed for flooding if one should occur….

The next two storms are looking very good…

The QPF collectively suggests that snowfall totals by next Wednesday would be in the neighborhood of 70 to 80 inches over the crest. Possibly between 30 and 40 inches at the Village. The good news is that for the snow weary, it really looks like

we’re in for a long break beginning this Wednesday into the first week of February.  Temperatures next week look cold, but moderating over the upper elevations by that following weekend while the valleys will be under an inversion.

 

In the very long-range, there has been some ensemble members that suggest that another AR is possible 3 weeks out.  However, there is nothing even close to being conclusive to that effect at this time….

 

It is time to enjoy all the snow and the best skiing in many years!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

 

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The biggest change that the Dweebs are noting over the past 24 hours, is that the Global Models are showing a bit less split flow as the system comes through Thursday morning. So less shadowing will allow more snowfall into the Town of Mammoth. The California Rivers forecast center has increased their QPF by 25% for the Yosemite point. The Town of Mammoth at 7800 feet shows an inch of water and the Mammoth Crest about 1.85 by Mid-morning. Considering Temperatures, there should be no problem accumulating at least a foot in the lower elevations of town with amounts between 1 and 2 feet between the Village and Canyon Lodge. The upper mountain will possibly be in the 2 foot range, considering Snow to Water Ratios tonight in the morning hours.

 

Working on a January Record for Mammoth Lakes Snowfall….

 

 

 

Monday AM:

Nice break in the weather for the first 2 days of the week. Time to create snow storage for the next storm cycle that will begin this Wednesday. The next series of storms will be much colder and should for the most part be all snow for the Town of Mammoth except for the very beginning Wednesday afternoon. The freezing level drops quickly late in the day Wednesday. Best estimate for snowfall for the Town of Mammoth will be 3 to 6 inches by Thursday morning so this will be a smaller system snowfall wise, with up to a foot on Mammoth Mt. The following storm will be colder and could bring 5 to 10 inches by between Friday AM and Saturday AM with up to 18 inches on Mammoth Mt. by Saturday AM. Saturday looks Showery in the morning with improving weather in the afternoon into Saturday night. The last in the series of storms will move in Sunday afternoon. The Sunday thru early Tuesday AM storm is a bigger storm that will be slower in moving. However, its main thrust might be Southern CA where some 4 inch amounts of rain may fall in their local foothills. This is expected to be between Sunday PM and Tuesday. For Mammoth, I expect a foot or two in town and possibly as much as 3+ feet on Mammoth Mt. So totals from the next storm cycle looks to be between 5 and 6+ feet on Mammoth Mt between this Wednesday and the following Tuesday. Thereafter, I expect a long break….possibly until the next storm cycle begins sometime during the 1st week of February…

 

 

 

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Lots of out-of-town folks and Locals alike are wondering why so much precipitation in a non El Nino year?  The records show that the biggest precipitation and flooding events in California occur during weak La Nina’s such as this one. Although most seasonal forecaster’s stayed away from this winters forecast, especially after being burned on last years El Nino precipitation bust! There were a few including the Dweebs that did indicate on more than one occasion, in this blog,  that we would have several Atmospheric River events this winter.  I will do the research and post the dates in this blog later.

Here are my posts that mention or discuss the possibilities of recurring “AR” (Atmospheric River) events for the upcoming winter.

Posts:

  1. September 26 to the 28th
  2. October 4th
  3. November 28th
  4. December 13th

All of these discuss the possibilities of Atmospheric Rivers redeveloping during the winter due to Blocking over, either Alaska or the Bering Sea.

II.  My forecast indicates that there will be weak impulse that drops south tomorrow Sunday and will be out of the area by Monday MLK Jr Day.  It is likely to bring some flurries or light snow showers, but nothing really measurable. The next series of storms hits Wednesday evening with a weakening “AR”. There will be at least one, possibly two systems following it.

Between Wednesday night and the following Tuesday, we should break the 20 inches that is upholding the January record up on Mammoth Mt. There is likely to be several more feet of snowfall but nothing like what we just went through….  One more thing….”At this time” it appears that there will be some nice but cold weather next weekend. IE Break between storms…(Subject to change)

 

I will have more detail in my “Weather Letter” released earlier this time Sunday…. With a follow-up Monday AM.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)