Warmer and Wetter Systems Ahead…..Weekend Looks Great!

 

Update via Weather Letter Tuesday 12:00PM  2-7-17

http://data.mammothweather.com/landing/

 

The pattern I see developing over the next  5 to 7 days will be one that favors central and northern CA more with warmer storms and wetter snowfall.   Weather systems Thursday, Friday, Sunday night and Monday are associated with a jet stream that is focused further north.  So snow levels will gradually rise with time. Atmospheric Rivers are still possible over the next 7 days so precipitation prediction will be tricky, especially this far south.

I am particularly concerned about a stronger Atmospheric  River, Tuesday into Wednesday night next week. That system may play havoc with the snow pack, especially over the Northern Sierra. To sum it all up, we have a few more weather systems to deal with here in Mammoth. However the brunt will be several hundred miles to the north of us and the southern portions of these systems will have both higher snow levels with weaker Atmospheric Rivers at times.  It is still possible that over the crest, there may be another 3 to 4+ feet by next Tuesday. There will be much less amounts in town because of the warmer temps. Again there is a concern about the Anti Cyclonically Curved pattern,  behind the Monday weather system for Tuesday into Wednesday.

The Dweebs are not completely confident that once the upper ridge sets up over the west coast later next week, that the ridge will hold for any significant length of time. However, the break will be welcomed by many!

Long Range Forecast- The next two systems that are headed our way look to bring between a foot of snow to the lower elevations of town and up to between 2 and 3 feet of snow over the crest. This is between midnight Wednesday night and early Saturday a.m..  It looks to be wet snow in the Town of Mammoth with cooling temps Friday into Friday night. The snow level will come down Friday night. This is a particularly windy system, as the upper jet axis is mainly to our north now. The weekend looks partly cloudy and breezy. There will be quite a bit of cloudiness at times with a few showers possible later Sunday, highs this weekend will be in the 40s and lows in the 20s. The Dweebs hope that this Sunday’s report for Monday a.m. will shed more light on that Atmospheric River for mid week next week,  if and where it may set up. If we do get precipitation in town Tuesday and Tuesday night. Most likely it will be rain.

Interseasonal outlook:

The Climate Forecast system is showing for week 3, a Massive Block, NW/SE over Hudson Bay then NNE to the Sea of Kara, Russia. The PV is forced to set up well South of the Gulf of AK about 135W to 140W with a southerly displaced Storm Track that could really hammer the central and northern West Coast….Sometime between the 16th and the 22nd of February…..Stay Tuned….  Note:  This is an outlook and not a forecast. (There is a difference)

 

 

Precipitation Anomaly:

 

 

High Clouds will give way to more sunshine today with warmer temps……The Thursday-Friday Storm has turned decidedly wetter for Mono County…..Cloudy but dry weekend still in the Outlook…..But Groundhog’s Day Outlook May have a few surprises for the Snow Weary…..

Monday 3:05PM….

I find it interesting that for the past two runs, the European wants to bring in another storm to the Sierra early next week while the GFS is building an even stronger ridge with its 12Z run compared to its 06Z from last night.   Took a quick look at the WPC QPF 7 day and noted that the Dweebs back east are giving the Sierra on the west side from Mammoth Mt,  about 4 tenths more to the 7 day period after the Thursday-Friday storm, and after a fair weekend. For moisture lovers, Tahoe will fair better with the EURO storm, with about an additional 1-1/2 inches of water added.  Not nearly the QPF the EC showed, but a compromise enough that some of the Dweebs back east are at least considering another front while the GFS is going with Beach Weather in Southern CA by Wednesday next week.     Go figure….  That’s snow Biz….

Comment: Watch for the flip!  

Either model may flip before Punxsutawney Phil goes out to see his shadow at 7:25 AM this Thursday. However, can we really rely on the forecast power that this over grown rat has. That is to predict our weather for the next 6 weeks?   No!  Because the simple answer is, that the weather is often times the opposite on the west coast as it is in Pennsylvania because of the wave length of the westerlies……  That is why we have to have our own answer to Punxsutawney Phil on the west coast.   Mammoth Marmot is it!  But do you really think that this large squirrel will attempt to find his way out of the 25 foot snow pack just to see if he can see his shadow this Thursday?  Not………..

 

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No matter what way you look at it, mother nature wants to give Mono County her fair share of precipitation from every storm that hits Northern California this winter…..  The guidance has turn decidedly wetter for Southern Mono County, with the Thursday Friday storm. Another Atmospheric River, however, light to moderate, is forecasted to slam Northern California with enough left to bring the Town of Mammoth between 1 and 2 feet of new snowfall and up to 3 feet  over the crest. Unusually, the GFS has out done the European Model this year. Those forecasters including myself that put more emphasis on the Euro model, keep playing catch up with the rest of the guidance for storms in the future. Note: Snow levels may rise to between 7500 to 8,000 for a time Thursday, so amounts may be slightly less in town.

This storm is slowing a bit and wont really get in here until Thursday morning with Thursday afternoon into Friday morning the “IOP” for Forecasters.

The Following weekend is still expected to be dry.  However, cloudy and breezy over the upper elevations as another system pushes in to the north of us.

Just a heads up, the trend of the Global forecast system (GFS) continues to retrograde the Bering Sea Block westward next weekend for a storm track trending North.

 

However, the EURO which I just bashed, delays the westward movement of the Block by a few days and allows another system to effect Mono County early the following week. At the present time, this extension of time by the European Model is not supported by the GFS system, so we”ll have to wait until about Ground Hogs Day Thursday,  to see if the GFS continues its consistency or flips to the ECMWF.

 

The Dweeber….

Welcomed Break in the Weather continues with Strong High Pressure Aloft over the weekend….Another Signifacant Storm will make its way into California this Wednesday with heavy snowfall expected Thursday….The following weekend looks dry and beyond…..

Sunday AM:

The ECMWF and GFS 12Z runs are closer this more with their height field.  Both are very similar with their QPF for the Thursday night/Friday Night system. The storm is still looking like a moderate snowfall producer with between 2 and 2.5 inches of water over the crest and roughly 1/2 in town.

So at 10:1 about two feet or a little more over the crest accounting for slightly higher snow to water ratios.

This looks to bring about 8 and 12 inches in town possibly a little more west of the Village.

I will update my weather letter tonight for Monday AM……

 

The Dweeber………….:-)

 

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SATURDAY 5:50 AM:

Update is in reference to changing hemispheric pattern:

The overnight ECMWF guidance is trending quicker with the retrogression of the AK/Bering Sea block. This will have the effect of both pushing the Thursday/Friday system’s QPF Bull’s-Eye further north to Northern California, and weakening this system for the Central California area faster. This storm’s QPF is looking to be more of a 1 to 2 footer with the latter amount over the crest. So more in the moderate category than the stronger storm the models showed Thursday night. This is certainly good news for the high country and those that are more concerned about snow storage.  Longer Range still favors long wave ridge setting up over Eastern Pacific for longer term dry spell.

More Later…….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)

 

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At least for the next 4 to 5 days our break in the weather is likely to continue….High temps this weekend will be in the 40s while lows at night are likely to rise into the teens….

No important winds are expected this weekend other than some easterly breezes over the ridge tops.

The latest extended guidance continues the trend of building another Upper high and blocking pattern over the Bering Sea and AK later next week. This block is just one of several that the Dweebs have seen since October.  The Block will allow a strong short wave to undercut the block and progress into California Thursday and Friday next week. This is a fairly strong storm now. However, nothing compared to the “Leo Storm” last weekend. The new storm will be associated with a deepening surface low bombing out at 983MB according to the GFS, Wednesday night west of Eureka, CA.  No doubt there will be some strong winds over the upper elevations Wednesday and Wednesday night followed by heavy snowfall Thursday into Friday. The surface low has the effect of slowing down the storm for greater snowfall amounts in the sierra.  At the moment this looks to be between 18 and 24 inches in town and between two to three feet over Mammoth Mt, over a 36 to 48 hour period. The *IOP is progged to be 4:00AM Thursday to 4:00Am Friday.

*Intensive operational period for forecasters.

 

Longer Range:

Just as quick as the block sets up over AK and the Bering Sea…It retrogrades west to Siberia into the following week. This is great news in that will shift the upper jet into the {Pacific NW) along with the hose as well. Some of the models bring in a wave through the ridge around the 8th. But that should be a much weakened weather system over Central CA and would be more active well to the north of Mammoth Lakes…Or it may not make it at all!

 

Dr Howard and the dweebs…………………….:-)