Progressive pattern to highlight next weeks weather with Monday-Tuesday system most likey now a strong NW Slider…..Light snowfall amounts expected…….Wetter pattern with “AR”and higher snow levels still looks good during second half of next week…..

Sunday Afternoon the 4th:

 

Cold wave moving in Monday night into Tuesday with light snow possible into Tuesday…..Very Significant AR event developing for the Central and Northern Sierra beginning Thursday AM as Kona Low draws up copious amounts of moisture from the ITZ then through Hawaii…as Warm front pushes into the sierra Thursday…..The Dweebs will have a complete and detailed report in the “weather letter” early Monday AM.

 

SEE: http://data.mammothweather.com/landing/

 

No sooner than the Dweebs put out a Platinum Powder Watch this AM, the upper jet with the next Monday-Tuesday system, the models showed the upper jet more along the west coast/CA with little over water trajectory. Although there is still the chance it may flip back somewhat for better snowfall opportunities, the odds are increasing against it.  This is why the Dweebs put out a Watch instead of a warning last night in my weather letter which would be more likely. The watch is now cancelled….

Not only is the pattern quite progressive, but the KONA low developing NW of Hawaii is aiding to pump up quite a bit of warm air over the subtropical eastern pacific. This subtropical ridge will act as a buffer combined with the progressiveness of the pattern to keep this short wave moving rather quickly southeast, instead of digging south first. No doubt this will be another cold system. However, not as cold as it appeared Tuesday but likely colder than the one currently in our area at the moment. Snow showers are still a good bet with light accumulation’s.

Should this system decide to slow down a bit and the upper jet backing a bit more off shore Monday, that would help with snowfall prospects. Although there is still 4 days for a little adjustment, the closer to the event, the better the models are at getting a handle on it.

The longer range still holds the possibility for a light to moderate AR event about Friday the 9th, give or take a day.

More on that later>>>>>>>>>>>

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

Mammoth Mountain Reports 15 to 34 inches in the wake of weekend storm…Weather pattern now turning decisively drier as upper pattern shifts to strongly progressive…

In accordance with my last weather letter and Dweeb update, the WX pattern by both models have turned decisively progressive. This means that the weather is moving quickly from the eastern pacific across the CONUS; (contiguous united states) and pausing from the Gulf of Ak to deepen down the west coast. As an example, the storm that was supposed to drop down over the Nevada and spin up over CA, will now move quickly and spin up somewhere between the Sea of Cortez and the desert southwest. Then shortly after, it will be whisked away by the westerlies.  A pattern like this favors northwest or inside sliders. It is a mostly dry pattern for Eastern CA and one that is highlighted by occasional snow showers, colder than normal temps and periods of wind.  Thus we will not get us a decent storm anytime soon…   In looking at the MJO RIMM phase space, it is going into the circle of death. This means that there will be no tropical forcing for sometime to come.  So the word is, enjoy the great snow that we have, and as soon as the pattern changes, well give you all a heads up in my news letter 1st.

Sea Surface temperatures:

As compared to the past several years, the key warm SSTA, is in the Bearing Sea now. As with most anomalously warm SST pools over the north pacific, this is where you will find the predominance of upper high pressure or anomalous upper heights. Underneath this warm water pool the WX is often times quiet. The subject pool becomes a key quasi thermal anchor or what ever is driving the warmth, will begin to dominate the pattern over the eastern pacific. The Dweebs expect a blocking pattern to develop over or near the Bering Sea during Week 2 or 3. Once it develops, the models will latch on to it and have better visibility of the next series of storms and their trajectory.  In the meantime, expect ciaos in the models without a good bias one way or another…. (lots of phantom storms with shifting dates)  As a note, it has been forecasted over the fall and summer that there will be a reemergence of the RRR “Ridicules Resilient Ridge” over the far north eastern pacific near the BC, Canadian Coast.  So far, this prognostication has not developed and may not this winter. The latest CFS prediction is for the pool to remain in the current area all winter. This means that the majority of all winter forecasts by the “Experts” will be wrong! So Southern CA, you may have it your way after all with at least a normal winter or even a wet one.  The position of the warm water in the Bering Sea would deliver more of the Split systems like this Fall at times, that does well for Southern CA!  Also the current SST setup suggests possible AR events for the west coast later in the Winter. (Warm Wet Storms)

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………..:-)

Storm system now moving into Mono County…Heaviest snowfall late tonight into Sunday Morning…… Focus then hinges upon Friday system and its formation and movment…

Lots to ponder and the wait on the longer range is taking its toll on this Dweeb….

I will update tonight in my letter for Sunday about the details on the coming pattern changes and how it will effect the longer range.

  1. This first system is splitting somewhat. However should remain intact enough to provide a nice shot of heavy snowfall tonight into Sunday AM.  6 inches + in town and a foot plus over the upper elevations. Thereafter, just some show showers or light snow later Sunday into Sunday night and even some showers early Monday AM. Very light accumulations expected between Sunday night and Monday AM.
  2. Temps: Lows to 20 degrees Saturday night with highs in the mid to upper 20s Sunday. Winds gusts to 40MPH this afternoon, 35MPH tonight. Westerly gusts to 30MPH Sunday’  Fair Tuesday and Wednesday….Highs 35 to 43
  3. The chain of events for the future will be dependent upon how progressive the pattern is across the CONUS.  WX discussion will revolve around this point….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)