Smokey Skies from Owens River Fire to continue through Monday AM with a wind shift expected during the afternoon…More southwest flow next week will keep most smoke away from Mammoth…..New Upper Low to bring wind and cooling Wednesday with FROPA Thursday Mid morning…slight chance of showers Thursday AM….

Monday AM:

Wind shift happened last night…..  So we are out of the smoke until the upper flow comes out of the north again or the fire is out….

 

Expect breezier days and eventually night ahead….

 

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It was quite the smoky morning Sunday with Air Quality in the tank until the inversion and southwest breeze broke it up by 10:00AM…..

 

It may be smoky again tonight into the early AM hours before additional breeze follows later Monday AM.

 

A similar pattern develops this new week as what we had a week ago as a small upper low off the Coast of Northern BAJA lifts north and moves in over Southern CA this next week. This time the upper forcing with its small features move over Southern CA and so Mammoth will not get the showers we got last Sunday in a similar scenario. Southern CA will get the forcing and moisture and showers and humidity are expected to increase Monday and into Tuesday.  Like last week, another system from the Gulf of AK will be the kicker. That system will bring strong SW flow Wednesday into Thursday and bring a good 20 degrees of cooling by Thursday.  Although there may be some showers Thursday AM with the FROPA and a dusting of snow above 8000 to 9000 feet, the system is moisture starved as the bulk of the moisture this time is well east and south of our area.  Expect strong winds over the upper elevations Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night. WSW Winds are forecasted at about 35 to knots at 700MB Wednesday evening and so sierra crest winds my gust to 80 to 90 mph. Winds will back from the NW by Thursday night.  Friday AM looks the coldest with lows in the 20s and low 30s. What a rude intro to the first day of Fall!  😉

 

Longer Range builds a ridge back in that following weekend for a FAB weekend.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

After a September Tease…Weather returns to Summer with highs in the mid 70s by weeks end……No storminess in sight!

12:00PM Sunday

 

PM10 count back to good at 84 from 385 earlier this morning….

Inversion broke as forecasted…

Chances are that it will become at least moderate again by early Monday AM.

 

Sunday 7:00AM

 

Owens River Fire Grown to 4000 acres…According to NWS

Mammoth Lakes Air Quality PM 10 count…..Very unhealthy

Stay indoors- windows closed

Inversion should break by 10:00AM with improving conditions

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It is a great time to be in the back country. Crowds are down, mornings begin with a chill but warm up nicely during the mid morning hours….  There is color change now in the upper elevations and some starting even in the Towns of Mammoth and June.  You know that mother nature does this just to get the skiers and boarders excited about the upcoming winter!

Upcoming winter:

What are some of the fundamental teleconnection now and what might they mean? I think that the biggest concern that we have at the moment is the “The Blob”. This is the Warm SSTA that has persisted more often than not over the far eastern GOA and along the west coast for several years. According to the JAMA, it is going to try to reestablish itself this winter……Well see.  The Weak La Nina forecasted by the IRC is not going to help much if it verifies, other than increase the odds for California AR events this winter.

 

Forecast summary:  The upper trof that moved through yesterday is lifting NE into Montana. Strong height rises are occurring now.  Just look at your Barometer! and surface pressures are on the rise as well. Well get into the low to mid 60s today, mid 60s Thursday and 70s over the weekend. This is a spectacular weekend for back country travel!  Nighttime lows are in the 30s now, but will pop into the low 40s over the weekend.

 

The Dweebs do not see any signs of a significant change in the weather to unsettled for the next 10 days…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

Early Season Cold Front will move through Central CA overnight Monday, bringing gusty winds ahead of it and some 20 degrees of cooling by Tuesday…..Although precipitation will diminish rapidly from north to south for Mono County…A dusting is still possible above 9500 feet Tuesday…..Temperatures will rebound the 2nd half of this week…..

An early season Cold Front was located near highway 80 north of Tahoe this morning. Latest 12z WRF Guidance at 500MB digs the upper trof with about 90 to 100 knot upper jet, north of the front, southwestward to the Bay Area late tonight…stalling out the cold front.   Afterword’s…. the upper jet runs out of steam and the upper trof pinches off into a weak upper low west of Alpine County, Tuesday at 12Z. Thereafter, the weak closed low shifts ESE into Nevada later Tuesday.  The WX front should flush south of Mammoth early Tuesday AM.  However, the bulk of precip is found in the unstable air behind the front associated with the cool pool aloft.  700MB temps will drop to near 0C by 00Z Wednesday and suggests a snow level of about 9500ft during the day Tuesday. Furthermore, Tuesday AM about sunrise, there could be some snow showers to lower elevations above 8500-9000K.  The chances for showers and thunderstorms will be the highest Tuesday.  Temperature’s will cool some 10 degrees today and another 8 to 10 degrees Tuesday. Nighttime lows will be in the low to mid 30s by Wednesday AM.  Expect a high of 55 on Tuesday with lows well down into the 30s by sunrise Wednesday AM.

All in all….This is just a teaser system…but actually a bit early as we usually get this around the equinox.

The models have been back peddling on the La Nina for the past few months….and now the Trades have been really cranking as the SOI has become quite positive the past three weeks.  Over the past 30 days the SOI average is up to 8.31 and climbing. We appear to be heading toward La Nina…And it just may be that Scripps is right in their SST forecast!  If the SOI remains this positive over the next few months…La Nina will most definitely be in the news!..

SOI was cranking this morning at a whopping 30.78!….  Climate models beginning to weaken the trend of warming of SSTA along the west coast after January 1st and actually bringing cooler then normal temps along the west coast later this fall into the winter……If this trend continues it is going to be a very different winter over the far west!  Cold…..late fall into Winter…500MB Upper height anomaly further west in the GOF….This will all have to be watched closely!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)