As subtropical moisture moves out….The heat is on this weekend with record highs in jeopardy by early next week…..Long period of above normal temperatures expected with the chance of some thunder developing over the Labor Day Holiday…

Our weather pattern will transit to more of a late July and early August weather pattern with 500MB heights becoming quite high over the Great Basin and California. 500mb-1000mb thicknesses are expected by the GFS to reach low 580s over Eastern CA by late this weekend into the early part of next week. This will be good enough to tie high temperature records for the Bishop AP and Mammoth Lakes with low 80s in Mammoth and between 100 to 105 temperatures for the Owens Valley, early next week. Through the middle of next week, it is expected to be a dry pattern. However, isolated thunderstorms may begin to develop my mid week. Expect some of the best back country travel this summer this weekend into next week as the high elevation snow pack is nearing normal for this time of the year. Of course the Mosquitos are probably still active in the usual areas.  Once over night lows drop below freezing they will be gone too.

The high temperature records for Bishop Monday and Tuesday of next week the 28th and 29th are 103 and 105, set back in 2001 and 1950. It is reasonable to expect similar highs then. A anomalously strong continental high will be responsible for the heat this weekend, well into next week. Some changes are in store for the holiday weekend as moisture moves up from a dying tropical storm over the Gulf of CA. This may bring the return of mainly afternoon and early evening thunderstorm’s over the sierra that weekend,  As we all know, Mammoth is usually one of the last areas to get rain from summer type afternoon and early evening storms. I will have an update later next week on the progress of such a pattern developing.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)

Weakening Upper trof remains over the inter-mountain west with back side over California…..Weak Low pressure at 700MB will provide marginal instability to the sierra for a few isolated thunderstoms the next few days….Weather may become a bit more active over the weekend…..

Very light flow remains overs the Central Sierra this evening with a very weak low pressure circulation located over West Central CA at 700MB. There were plenty of high clouds today. However, little in the way of air mass modification. Looking at the Tuesday 18Z  GFS 0.5 Degree Model Output, , there appears to be a slow increase in the 250 MB upper divergence over Mono County through the weekend. At the same time, the convective available potential energy “CAPE” increases, especially over the weekend.  Air mass modification should take place Friday and Saturday with areal coverage of thunderstorms on the increase, especially Saturday and Sunday… Through the process, temperatures will rise a few more degrees this week….into the upper 70s. Lows in the 40s.

Fall like trof is a reminder that Meteorological Fall is only two weeks away……Coolest Temperatures of the Summer Monday will give way to a warm up beginning Thursday into the following weekend..

It’s a cool cloudy day today in Southern Mono County as a fall like Trof descends through the county….The Trof will be dry.  Clearing skies will occur tonight…..Highs today in Mammoth will be in the 60s then low 70s Tuesday and upper 70s by Thursday. Weekend will be fair with highs be near 80 degrees. there will be a few isolated Thunderstorms over the high country.

Climate:

Of note, the subtropical continental high has disappeared to a significant extent over the desert southwest.  This is unusual for Mid August.  Some attempt for mother nature to redevelop it will occur about the 21st of August over Texas.  Monsoon moisture will pretty much disappear until the week of the 21st.

Fall may be coming on quicker than you think!

 

“Max” Partial Solar eclipse for Mammoth Lakes will occur at 10:20 am on Aug 21st.   About 75% of the Sun will be eclipsed by the New Moon. When viewing the sun, use “only” special glasses with the stamp ISO 12312-2 … on them.  Otherwise “you will be”  blinded by the light!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)