Fair weather days to continue through the weekend with some cooling Saturday….Pattern change underway this weekend with light to moderate snow probable Wednesday….

 

 

Here is a brief update on the changes expected next week over the western hemisphere due to tropical forcing over the Western and Central Pacific.. The big news this morning is that the pattern changes touted by the MJO RIMM the end of October, are making their way into the week 2 global models (Next Week). Only now 6 days out, the models are showing the transition to an active pattern whereby cold, wind and snow returns to the high country, by early Wednesday.  From what I can see, the Dweeb Report was the only media calling for this change on November 1st report. So here we are 6 days out from a good possibility of cold, wind and snowfall. The storm being touted by all global models for next Wednesday is pretty average. Meaning that it is a classic short wave that will be progressive and move through Northern and Central CA Midweek. The part that make this short wave more promising is that it is being supported by the MJO “Madden Julian Oscillation”  In phase space 8/1. So I am going out and saying that I have high confidence in this weather system for very late Tuesday/Wednesday, and that it will bring light to moderate snowfall (Some where between 6 to 18 inches) to Mammoth Mt. At this time, there isn’t any subtropical tap so the upper Jet will do the forcing with terrain enhancement as well. Beyond Wednesday, the next possible system in the cards is for the following week.  I am not as confident in its timing, other than it will be sometime the following week. This 2nd system is more likely to split or get cut off from the westerlies. This opens the door to lots of possibilities for both timing and amounts of precipitation and its trajectory.  It may be that the storm cuts off and waits for the next upstream kicker to give it the boot.   I will update on the next system early next week via my letter.

For those that are interested, the Global Forecast System was touting 12 to 24 inches of snowfall for the Sierra by Thanksgiving yesterday Wednesday….”Caveat Emptor” “This is an outlook, subject to change.” 😉

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

The current episode of anomalous warmth will peak over Eastern CA the next few days and hold through the weekend…..RIMM signel still very strong for pattern change later next week……

Quick Update this Voting Day Tuesday to say that the RIMM phase space is still a go for retrogression of the long wave features later this week into next week.  There will be no sensible weather changes this week. However, next week will become cooler by mid-week with an increase in wind and high clouds. High temperatures will warm to the low 60s today and hold there for several days. A little cooling is possible over the weekend but not much.  Nights will continue in the 30s at 8000 feet. There will be little in the way of wind.

The details in the structure of the wavelength across the pacific or how strong the amplification will become toward the end of next week is not known yet. Odds are that it will turn colder than normal, windy at times with the possibility of precipitation by weeks end. The MJO signal when used is only a tool for a change in the pattern over the western hemisphere that would affect any given area over the far west. However, it does not tell you how much snow you will get if any, or how cold it will become.  That information is in the future guidance of the global models with good confidence within 7 days of any particular time frame. This weekend represents the end of week two and the beginning of week 3 when RIMM Phase Space showed a strengthening signal east of the western pacific then eastward to the central pacific a week ago last Monday. Today’s NCEP briefing should shed light on what the signal really is as supported by other induces. I will update this Thursday via my weather letter 1st, then publicly this weekend via the Dweeb Report. As a comment, we all want tons of snow for various reasons. However, as of this time, no one has witnessed a late Fall 2016 winter like pattern yet. The precipitation events of last October and associated pattern are a lot different than the pattern that will be developing late next week and into the end of November. The Dweebs sincerely hope that when the pattern or structure sets up, that it will be a wet one for California.  Worst care scenario is that it turns cold and Mammoth Mt makes a lot of snow! 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

 

MJO into Phase Space 6 then 7…Some high temperature records possibe for the Golden State…..Watch for big change in the pattern about the end of 3rd Week of November…

There is some amazing amplification taking place in the MJO RIMM. Today, as has been the case the past week the MJO phase space has been going crazy!  Take a Look!   http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml  That my friends spells real change!  It is a longer period western pacific tropical signal that has a pretty good linear relationship to our weather here in the Central Sierra, during the colder time of the year (Nov-March).  The MJO phase space by most global models gives you a look into the future…beyond the global models week 1 and 2. They are helpful in determining what weeks 3 and 4 might be like.  In this case…That a big change is coming the end of 3rd week of November through the end of the month. What kind of change? The MJO temperature composites indicate it will gradually turn colder over the far west beginning the latter part of the 3rd week of November into the end of the month, with increasing odds of snowfall in the Central Sierra week 4 or the period after the 21st through the end of the month.  Remember, this is a long-range outlook and not a detailed forecast like what the GFS or ECMWF guidance would show you. So the details are forth-coming but the change to cold is real!  For those that have subscribed to my by weekly letter, thank you.  I will have some special lead information that will be posted their in the letter and then on the Dweeb blog at a later date/time.

 

In the meantime…..its going to be Bikini weather along the coast for at least a week…..And warm with low 60s in Mammoth and possible low 80s for the Owens Valley in the not to distant future.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)