Above normal temperatures to continue through mid week then a trof of low pressure will descend from the Gulf of Ak bringing breezy-cooler weather to the high country….beginning late Wednesday through the weekend…..
Tuesday June 7, 2016
Posted at 6:50 am by Howard
Above normal temperatures will continue through tomorrow Wednesday with breezy weather starting Wednesday afternoon and then through Friday. The upper pattern over the pacific appears to be progressive with a series of low pressure systems headed for the west coast the next two weeks. Thus the idea of anymore heat waves in our future is not likely until after the Summer Solstice. This is well supported by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the ensembles.
The first trof mid week will spread gusty winds into our region with a strong zephyr Wednesday afternoon into a good part of that evening. More wind is expected Thursday and Friday. A good 10 to 15 degrees of cooling is expected between today Tuesday and the following Saturday with highs in the upper 60s by Saturday. Lows will one again dip into the 30s this weekend.
This is a dry pattern and so no rain or snow is expected. The weekend trof will kick out late Sunday, with Monday a bit warmer before another trof approaches Tuesday into Wednesday that following week. That system appears to be deeper and cooler, bringing more wind…cooling and the chance of some light precipitation or ???
Note: The 3rd week of June is notorious for bringing our last hard freeze and possible snowfall, between the 15th and the 22nd.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)
Record or near record high temperatures on tap later this week as strong ridge for early June builds into the west coast…..Heat will break with thundershowers Sunday and Monday…..
Tuesday May 31, 2016
Posted at 9:33 pm by Howard
Sunday AM Update:
A weak upper low was located just NE of the Bay Area at Sunrise Sunday, proged to move ENE today. This is north of its earlier forecasted position. All of the Upper Divergence will be north of Mammoth Lakes today and so little in the way of dynamic forcing for thunderstorm’s is expected south of Mono Lake. The forecast is calling for isolated thunderstorms today for the southern Mono County Area and again Monday and Tuesday, Highs in the 70s today with lows in the upper 40s. Saturday’s high was 80 at the Village at Mammoth and 82 in town. It was 102 in Bishop Saturday breaking the old record by 2 degrees set back in 1996.
The first real taste of Summer will take place this week with highs in the mid 70s mid-week, climbing to the low 80s by Saturday. In the meantime the heat will build due to a strong ridge of high pressure and 500/1000MB thickness gradually climbing to about 580DM by 00z Sunday over Mammoth and Bishop.
The outlook shows a small upper level low that will work its way into the Central Sierra Sunday into early the following week. The system will first create diffluence aloft with the possibility of a deformation zone setting up over Mono County. There is the possibility of upper divergence if the NE quad favors Mammoth Lakes Sunday. Although, there will be little moisture associated with the upper low itself, the cooling aloft combined with the antecedent record warmth will be enough to light up the atmospheric with thunderstorms Sunday and especially Monday. Most models show that the late weekend system will be followed by yet a small progressive Trof the following Wednesday. The Prind. point is that the following week is likely to be cooler and breezy into the following weekend of the 11th. There maybe some days with below normal temps later the following week.
There is also MJO support for the cooler following week….More later……………..:-)
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)
The Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms return Saturday through Sunday with less of a chance on Memorial Day….A taste of Summer definitely in forecast by Tuesday though Friday next week…
Friday May 27, 2016
Posted at 11:00 pm by Howard
Weak deformation zone has set up over Mono County showing up on the 850MB. Light showers and some thunder so far in Mammoth with the snow level above 10K.
Showers will trend further north with time……
Looking at the 00Z Saturday WRF…..the upper flow at the moment is light from the NW. A weak wave is forecasted to come through early Saturday AM. This will spin up a small upper low off the South Central CA coast Saturday with the upper center over Southern CA Sunday. The Dweebs did not see any specific areas of Deformation. However, worth noting is a pocket of strong upper divergence developing at 250MB over Mono County. Additionally, there is a strong corresponding area of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) of between 750 and 1000 J/KG progged for Mono County Saturday afternoon into the evening. Thus…..Showers and Thunderstorms will likely form here and there…..especially if an area of deformation sets up during the afternoon. Weather conditions are similar Sunday….
Highs Saturday 63 …Sunday 65 Monday 69 Lows in the 30s….
The outlook for next week shows an upper ridge building in with above normal temps resulting. We may see low 70s by Tuesday then through Friday……Enjoy!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)