Early Season Cold Front will move through Central CA overnight Monday, bringing gusty winds ahead of it and some 20 degrees of cooling by Tuesday…..Although precipitation will diminish rapidly from north to south for Mono County…A dusting is still possible above 9500 feet Tuesday…..Temperatures will rebound the 2nd half of this week…..
Monday September 12, 2016
Posted at 8:48 am by Howard
An early season Cold Front was located near highway 80 north of Tahoe this morning. Latest 12z WRF Guidance at 500MB digs the upper trof with about 90 to 100 knot upper jet, north of the front, southwestward to the Bay Area late tonight…stalling out the cold front. Afterword’s…. the upper jet runs out of steam and the upper trof pinches off into a weak upper low west of Alpine County, Tuesday at 12Z. Thereafter, the weak closed low shifts ESE into Nevada later Tuesday. The WX front should flush south of Mammoth early Tuesday AM. However, the bulk of precip is found in the unstable air behind the front associated with the cool pool aloft. 700MB temps will drop to near 0C by 00Z Wednesday and suggests a snow level of about 9500ft during the day Tuesday. Furthermore, Tuesday AM about sunrise, there could be some snow showers to lower elevations above 8500-9000K. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will be the highest Tuesday. Temperature’s will cool some 10 degrees today and another 8 to 10 degrees Tuesday. Nighttime lows will be in the low to mid 30s by Wednesday AM. Expect a high of 55 on Tuesday with lows well down into the 30s by sunrise Wednesday AM.
All in all….This is just a teaser system…but actually a bit early as we usually get this around the equinox.
The models have been back peddling on the La Nina for the past few months….and now the Trades have been really cranking as the SOI has become quite positive the past three weeks. Over the past 30 days the SOI average is up to 8.31 and climbing. We appear to be heading toward La Nina…And it just may be that Scripps is right in their SST forecast! If the SOI remains this positive over the next few months…La Nina will most definitely be in the news!..
SOI was cranking this morning at a whopping 30.78!…. Climate models beginning to weaken the trend of warming of SSTA along the west coast after January 1st and actually bringing cooler then normal temps along the west coast later this fall into the winter……If this trend continues it is going to be a very different winter over the far west! Cold…..late fall into Winter…500MB Upper height anomaly further west in the GOF….This will all have to be watched closely!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)
Beautiful late summer days to give way to showers and some thunder early next week…..High temps to cool some 20 degrees by Tuesday before rebounding the second half of next week…
Friday September 9, 2016
Posted at 12:34 pm by Howard
Mammoth continues to enjoy some of the finest Summer weather in years with somewhat above normal heights and light breezes. Thereafter, the pattern will change to one of being much cooler with showers, TSRWs and possibly a light dusting of snow to the sierra crest Tuesday and into Wednesday AM…..
High pressure will remain in control through early Saturday, allowing persistence of the current pattern through the Day. High temps will range in the upper 70s with lows in the 40s. A weak upper low “currently off the Northern Mexican Coast this morning” is moving northwestward. By Saturday night, the system lifts though Central CA, increasing instability for the chance of showers during the afternoon Sunday. These will be mainly diurnally driven. What is more important is that Sundays moisture primes the air mass for the next cooler system dropping out of the Gulf of AK Monday Night. There will be a build-ups or isolated TSRWs Sunday. There will be a break Monday, By Monday night expect an increase of upper forcing again which increases further Tuesday. This goes along with the front left exit region of a 80 knot upper jet being over Mono County by Tuesday PM. Although the focus is more north of Mono County, Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. By Tuesday night a dusting is possible above 9000 to 9500ft.
Expect highs in Mammoth on Tuesday in the upper 50s with low of about 30F Wednesday AM
Warmer weather will return Thursday into Friday.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)
Cool Holiday Weekend with Breezy Weather gives way to more seasonal temperatures by Mid Week…..Early morning lows in the 30s will lift into the 40s later this week….It will be another dry week ahead…..Southern half of Arizona and New Mexico braces for remains of Tropical Storm Newton Mid Week……
Monday September 5, 2016
Posted at 7:03 am by Howard
Dry upper Trof is now lifting NE away from the Eastern Sierra…..Not before leaving a fall like chill in the air and some frost. High temperatures Sunday were in the low 60s and this morning low was between 32 and 33 degrees near the Village. The official low at the Ranger Station was probably below freezing as the Crestview Station and Bridgeport was in the low to mid 20s. This is certainly the coolest temperatures so far this late summer. Winds will be lighter the next few day with a warm up to more season levels (low to mid 70s is expected by Wednesday. Upper 70s looks possible again by Thursday and Friday as another beautiful weekend is in store….The Owens Valley near Bishop will have temps climb into the upper 90s by Thursday.
Other then the warm up for the high country, the only other weather feature worth mentioning is TS Newton moving NNW up the Sea of Cortez this week. A week ago it looks like there was the chance it might bring substantial rain to Southern California. Today, its remains will mainly affect Southern AZ and New Mexico and parts of the desert southwest… However, there maybe some chance of thunderstorm action over SE Ca and extreme southern NV, the middle of this week.
CVSv2 shows a trof of low pressure effecting the Eastern Sierra between the 15th of September and the 21st for the Chance of TS/RWs. Otherwise temps will remain above normal through months end. The next big change to cooler showery weather according to the Climate Forecast Model is during the first week of October through the 15th.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)