Welcomed Break in the Weather continues with Strong High Pressure Aloft over the weekend….Another Signifacant Storm will make its way into California this Wednesday with heavy snowfall expected Thursday….The following weekend looks dry and beyond…..

Sunday AM:

The ECMWF and GFS 12Z runs are closer this more with their height field.  Both are very similar with their QPF for the Thursday night/Friday Night system. The storm is still looking like a moderate snowfall producer with between 2 and 2.5 inches of water over the crest and roughly 1/2 in town.

So at 10:1 about two feet or a little more over the crest accounting for slightly higher snow to water ratios.

This looks to bring about 8 and 12 inches in town possibly a little more west of the Village.

I will update my weather letter tonight for Monday AM……

 

The Dweeber………….:-)

 

——————————————————————————————–

SATURDAY 5:50 AM:

Update is in reference to changing hemispheric pattern:

The overnight ECMWF guidance is trending quicker with the retrogression of the AK/Bering Sea block. This will have the effect of both pushing the Thursday/Friday system’s QPF Bull’s-Eye further north to Northern California, and weakening this system for the Central California area faster. This storm’s QPF is looking to be more of a 1 to 2 footer with the latter amount over the crest. So more in the moderate category than the stronger storm the models showed Thursday night. This is certainly good news for the high country and those that are more concerned about snow storage.  Longer Range still favors long wave ridge setting up over Eastern Pacific for longer term dry spell.

More Later…….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)

 

————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

 

At least for the next 4 to 5 days our break in the weather is likely to continue….High temps this weekend will be in the 40s while lows at night are likely to rise into the teens….

No important winds are expected this weekend other than some easterly breezes over the ridge tops.

The latest extended guidance continues the trend of building another Upper high and blocking pattern over the Bering Sea and AK later next week. This block is just one of several that the Dweebs have seen since October.  The Block will allow a strong short wave to undercut the block and progress into California Thursday and Friday next week. This is a fairly strong storm now. However, nothing compared to the “Leo Storm” last weekend. The new storm will be associated with a deepening surface low bombing out at 983MB according to the GFS, Wednesday night west of Eureka, CA.  No doubt there will be some strong winds over the upper elevations Wednesday and Wednesday night followed by heavy snowfall Thursday into Friday. The surface low has the effect of slowing down the storm for greater snowfall amounts in the sierra.  At the moment this looks to be between 18 and 24 inches in town and between two to three feet over Mammoth Mt, over a 36 to 48 hour period. The *IOP is progged to be 4:00AM Thursday to 4:00Am Friday.

*Intensive operational period for forecasters.

 

Longer Range:

Just as quick as the block sets up over AK and the Bering Sea…It retrogrades west to Siberia into the following week. This is great news in that will shift the upper jet into the {Pacific NW) along with the hose as well. Some of the models bring in a wave through the ridge around the 8th. But that should be a much weakened weather system over Central CA and would be more active well to the north of Mammoth Lakes…Or it may not make it at all!

 

Dr Howard and the dweebs…………………….:-)

SNOW SHOVELERS WANTED…. Lots of work in town……Some light finally at the end of the tunnel indicating that after this next upcoming storm…A longer break seems possible into February if these trends continue…………

Thursday PM Update:

IT’S All ABOUT THE BLOCK!

In Early Star Wars Movies Luke was told to Search his feelings in regards to the Force.

Today as an amateur weather forecaster, as I look around at all the snow in Mammoth Lakes, in searching my feelings, I have to say that I prefer that mother nature shut it off for several weeks!  And…..see mid winter temps in the 50s instead of the 20s so we can get some melt!  We lack snow storage; and if we were to get another 4 to 6 feet of snow in town, it might be doubt full that anyone down south would be able to enjoy it!  Why?  Because of no were to put the snow and nowhere to park and other major complication’s that might be unforeseen….

Update on the Models….

Trying to be as objective as one can….I have to say that after looking at this mornings 12Z Thursday GFS run, the certainty of the negative phase WPO/EPO becoming positive after the following weekend, thereby allowing retrogression of the block west to Siberia is not as certain this morning as it was yesterday or last night. If this block does not retrograde….we may have a problem….The Ensembles, a collection of deterministic runs, will tell the story over the next 5 days.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..

 

 

——————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

As of 3:30PM Wednesday, the trend continues of the retrograding closed anti cyclone to Siberia the next weekend, thereby allowing heights to rise along the west coast week 2.

——————————————

Just when snow storage is maxed out and although the next storm is likely to bring more snowfall the middle of next week….Some light is showing up in the longer term….

The biggest factor in shifting the upper jet to the north is the big blocking high that is expected to rapidly set up again over AK and the Bering Sea. This is forecasted by both EC and GFS to shift rapidly west, past the dateline by the following weekend. Two of the 3 global models show that. The only outliner was the Canadian Model from last night which leaves the block in place a while longer.

A shift of the block to the west will send the storm track back up into the pacific NW for an extended period….

These are new trends….Need more time for confidence building……

Stay tuned for updates….

 

The Dweeber………………:-)

Mammoth Digs Out after Seige of Storms leaves snowfall amounts up similar to Late January of 1969…Short Term and Medium Range show a break in the weather of a week to 10 days….While Longer Range has the -EPO and -WPO Raising its Ugly Head Again………

Some of the greatest snowfall amounts since the big winter of 1969 has buried the Town of Mammoth Lakes.  There are walls of snow some 15 to 20 feet high in some places and snow up to the 2nd story is common place throughout the Mammoth Slope Subdivision. For you locals out there….get lots of pictures, as this is possibly a 1 in 50 year event! In that this is only late January, odds are that a lot more snow is coming.

Looking at the week two charts of both the ECMFW and GFS, the two global models show both the -WPO and -EPO teleconnection strengthening, which is a strong indicator of blocking over Alaska and the Bering Sea. This is the pattern we had in both December and Early January when we had Atmospheric Rivers hit both Central and Northern CA. So far this has been the winter of AK blocking that began last October if you remember.

What you can do to protect your property:

Take preparations over the next week by creating snow storage:

  1. Cover windows buried in snow
  2. Get roofs shoveled and remove ice dams.
  3. Protect your Propane Tanks from Ice and snow, especially around the gas lines. Big winters are notorious for creating broken gas lines around tanks which can create leaks and possible fires and explosions.

Get snow trucked out of possible.

9:20AM Update:

The New Deterministic GFS just finished Running… It is more similar to the Canadian…

The Location of the Block is the key teleconnection between the -EO and -WPO sector. It sets up the AR over time back into Central and Northern CA. In fact according to the GFS, there is a complete westerly break through into the Golden State by the 6th of February.

Based upon what we have now and what the future may bring, I think that it is entirely possible that this winter will break snowfall records of the winter of 1969 by the end of February….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)