Storm Track Takes a Hike To The North For A While With Mainly Dry Breezy WX Fronts To Deal With….Some Snow Showers Possible This Weekend

After a storm that dumped about a foot on Mammoth Over the Weekend….the weather will take a bit of a break as the series of short waves track mainly to our north this week. In the 5 day 500mb means, there is a height anomaly that is situated over the desert south west that will provide more gradient and thus more wind for the upcoming Thursday system. In the meantime, ridging at 500mb is building in and a decrease in upper elevation winds are expected today into tonight. Temps will be warmer today into Thursday. The next cold front may not even make it this far south Thursday pm. However winds up at 700mb will still howl. Expect winds over the upper elevations Thursday afternoon to be strong.

The next in a series of short waves will effect the sierra over the weekend. The upper jet with the system is not all that strong. Nevertheless there could still be some showers but any accumulation will be light of any. The next significant chance of a little powder will be next Monday as the right rear entry region of the upper jet swings through the Central Sierra.

Interseasonal:

MJO:

The CPC currently has a weak MJO moving quickly through phase space 7/8. Odds favor between normal to warmer then normal temps. Also below normal precip for the Central Sierra.  This may be relevant to this weeks 1 weather currently forecasted by global models.

Week 2:

The weak MJO is expected to move quickly eastward into phase space 1 where the odds increase for precip for the Central Sierra for the month of March. This would be during the period beginning about the 15th through the 21st and especially beyond the 21st.

Global Models are trending in that direction……



The Dweeber…………………….:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Fair today with light winds…next round of warm air advection snowfall into the high county late Saturday night….

Quick update this morning to highlight that winds will be light today from top to bottom. High temps will range in the 40s in town with 30s over the higher elevations. A beautiful Late Winters Day!

The next round of precipitation has already left the Hawaiian Islands. Subtropical moisture will begin to move into Northern Ca early Saturday morning and then spread south though Central Ca During the Day reaching Mammoth By Late evening Saturday.

The QPF from CRFC is pretty skimpy through Sunday with up to .35 for upper elevations through Sunday night. With the Snow level about 7500 through Sunday, snow will not be much of an issue for the town and even over the upper elevations just a few inches 2 to 4 expected.

The cold front is expected to come through Monday morning just before Sunrise.  So between Midnight Sunday and Noontime  will be the best time for some moderate snowfall accumulations here in town. Some 3 to 5 inches possible here at the village is a good guess at this time with the possibility of about a foot on “Ol’ Woolly”.   Will update Saturday morning for a better estimate.

So another in a series of light to moderate system is expected to bring an freshening of snowfall to the Eastern Sierra.


Here is this mornings guesstimates of the timing of storms into the Eastern Sierra the next few weeks. This is just from today’s operational GFS and is not totally reliable.


1. Thursday night the 10th

2. Saturday night into Sunday the 12th

4. Monday night the 14th

5. Wednesday the 16th

6. Thursday night the 17th

7. Saturday night the 19th into Sunday the 20th.

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN PICKED UP ANOTHER 12 TO 18 INCHES STORM TOTAL……NEXT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND LOOKS SIMULAR IN STYLE ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BETTER PRECIP PRODUCER…..UPDATED TIMING VIA HOVMOLLER

A few linger snow showers are possible this morning. As current system exits….the upper jet still keeps it breezy this morning in the swift WSW upper flow. Upper ridging will build in this evening and diminish winds overnight somewhat. Without any major ridging….there will continue to be clouds and breezy conditions into the weekend.

Next swath of tropical/Subtropical moisture will leave Hawaiian Islands Friday and head for Northern and Central Ca for Saturday. The meat of it really does not get into the Central Sierra until Saturday night with the bulk of it destined for Northern Ca.  This is sort of a replay of the pattern we just went through, except that the colder portion of this next system is colder, more dynamic and negative tilt for Late Sunday night into Monday. Warm advection precipitation with higher snow levels will again effect the Mammoth area Saturday night into Sunday with the snow level plummeting about Sunday Midnight with the FROPA. 1000mb-500mb thicknesses is about 534dm by early Monday am behind the front. Should be good for a 3500 to 4000 foot Snow Level Monday Am.  Best guess….Looks like another foot and a half for the crest. Will update on QPF Friday for the end of the week.

Models are forecasting a ridge over us next Wednesday for some nice weather…..Then timing of next system about Thursday night.

Updated propagation of Amplification “group velocity” of combined long and short wave energy across the Pacific per Hovmoller.

12z 1st-12z 5th Sat AM

12z 4th-12z 8th Tues AM

00z 7th-00z 11th Thu PM

00z 10th-00z 15th Mon PM
Bering sea high remains an anchor feature with series of systems moving across pacific at mid latitudes. Good cold air coming off Asia and resulting cyclogenesis off japan to keep this energy strongly propagating under the high latitude block in the Bering sea. 
The Dweeber……………………:-)


————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.