Chilly Morning With Low Temps As Low As -14 This AM…..Milder Weather Ahead with Light Snowfall Possible Wednesday…..

The cold pool that slowly drifted southeast over the Great Valley yesterday and into Southern Ca this morning kept temperatures in the mid teens in town and into the single digits up on Mammoth Mtn  Saturday.  With increasing subsidence this morning, valleys chilled out to well below zero in many locations. Now the short road to quickly moderating high temperatures begins and warmer temps are ahead!

PS. there will still be a pretty good surface gradient today. Winds will continue strong over the Sierra Crest out of the north to 60mph.

Medium Range:

The consensus of the ensembles are in and the next series of systems will drive mainly to our north. The central pacific Ridge will be splitting the energy with the subtropical jet lifting northeast into Northern Ca. by mid week. This will bring some light warm advection snowfalls to the upper elevations and snow levels will rise this week. There are mainly two systems to deal with.

1.  A mid latitude surface low will spin up west off the central coast out about 1400 miles west of Mammoth tracking NE Tuesday. This system is moderately wet with its main impact over the north coast of California into southern OR.  Several inches of rain are expected from this mid latitude storm there. The storm will drag a weakening front into the Central Sierra during the day on Wednesday. At the moment, QPF from the GFS and HPC is not all that impressive.  About .25 to .35 at most.   So Mammoth might get up to 5 inches over the upper terrain and some 1 to 3 inches around town.  

It is probably a bit early to get specific on the QPF as we are trending from a quite cold dry air mass to one that is milder and more moist.  Will update in the morning for Wednesday.  The main message here is that temperatures will be moving into the 40s by mid-week with stronger winds over the upper elevations likely by Wednesday.

2. The upper jet will be lifting further north Friday into Saturday providing higher heights….Further warming is expected by next Saturday. By Sunday, the upper jet sags south again and by Sunday afternoon or night, some light snowfall may return to the Mammoth Area along with some cooling. 

3. There after…a series of short waves will move from west to east in a zonal flow, bringing periods of snowfall. It’s too early to tell much more than that. The 6 to 10 day and 8 t0 14 days outlooks keep somewhat above normal precipitation for our area. The storm track suggest that mild maritime pacific air will prevail within the flow at 700mb.



Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………:-)



————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Mammoth Mt Picked up 3 to over 4 feet of powder, Storm Total….Snow Showers Today…..Next Storm Mid Week

Chilly this morning….5 degrees at the main lodge, 9 degrees at the village where the Dweebs measures 33 inches of cold dry powder storm total. Current analysis shows the upper 500mb center near the bay area and is progged to drop SE past Paso Robles by 4:00 pm today.  At the same time….the upper low at 700mb is expected to track from the central valley very close to the Sierra Foothills. Light up slope may begin occurring after noon into the early evening hours. I do not expect much more than a scant to an inch or two today in town. Possibly 1 to 3 inches on Mammoth Mtn.  Sensibly, it will be very cold today. The 500mb/1000mb thickness pool is over head with thicknesses at or below 522dn with 700mb temps about -16C (3F) today. Highs today will remain in the mid teens in town with single digits on Mammoth Mt.  Dress Warmly….good day for a neck gator.

Winds:  Pretty light since we essentially near the eye of the storm. Breezes this morning are about 10 mph on the lower Mountain and gusts to 20MPH are expected over the crest. Winds will pick up about mid afternoon out of the north as the upper flow backs around from the same direction. Up slope snow showers are expected this afternoon and into this evening.  Short wave ridging will move in Sunday with moderating temps….

Overall…this storm ended up everything the Dweebs expected with some of the greatest powder on earth today. Get it fast and while the powder lasts on Mammoth Mt!



The Dweeber……………………..:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Arctic Air Continues to Plunge/Modify down the West Coast….While Heavy Snows Pound the Central Sierra

UPDATED:11:00am

Full on winter storm in progress at this time as the southward push of the strong closed low off the Oregon coast  continues into Northern California throughout today. The onshore flow has been strengthening this morning and Mammoth Mountain has picked up well over a foot as of 8:00am. The latest satellite motion shows a nice tap (.8-pwa)of moisture from the mid pacific that seems to be favoring the southern and south-central sierra.  This will support heavy amounts to accumulate throughout the day today and tonight. The latest update from CRFC is showing another 1.8 inches of QPF  for our area by morning. By Saturday…the strong height falls that are currently occurring offshore will shift east into Southern California and bring heavy amounts of snowfall to your local mountains. All in all considering how cold this storm is…..UVM and  moisture,  amounts over Mammoth Mountain will easily be in the 3.5 foot to 4.5 foot range over the powder fields of the upper mountain by Saturday.

Further Discussion…….

A strong cold front is pushing south across the Sacramento Valley. At the same time, a developing lee side surface low is slowing the progress of the front. Without this development the front would have been already south of Tahoe by now limiting the amount of snowfall the Mammoth area would  receive. So, in retrospect, the wetter models were better, especially once the moisture moved eastward reaching the coast and the right rear entry region of the upper jet set up over the northern part of the state. All considered, this system is making the most of the current moisture influx.

Looking ahead today. The cold front will slowly drop south today toward Central Ca. However, over Northern Nevada where the Lee side development is expected,  the front may hang up a bit longer delaying the front through Mono County until very late afternoon or evening. Surface convergence is likely to persist over Eastern California into the night for another foot of snowfall beyond this afternoon. 

Pacific Sat view:

1. Nice lingering Kona low continues to draw up moisture from the tropics into the subtropics. This moisture will become a player later next week……

2. Current upper anti-cyclone at 50 north/150west is positive tilt and will aid with the short wave coming south to push the current cold off shore system southward.

3.  ((((“More importantly”))))…a strengthening low latitude subtropical upper jet will work into the western pacific in the days to come strengthening.  This will have the effect in developing a tremendous amount of amplification in the central pacific upper ridge, building it into the Bering Sea. There is the suggestion of the confluence of a strong low latitude subtropical jet with the Polar in early March.  One break through of the westerlies may occur about the 28th of February as a cold upper trof from the Gulf digs southwest to meet up with it, the second half of next week. At the moment the emphasises is for Northern Ca for the heaviest Precip, however this is a developing situation and subject to change. What is happening here is the “potential” for a very wet pattern for the west coast over time. 



Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)


————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.