Increasing Clouds Today….Snowshowers Possible Late Today and Tonight…..Champagne Power Alert For Next Weekend!

It was a cold one this morning…-11 at the Mammoth Ap and -7 at Crestview. The combination of strong radiational cooling, the existing snow cover and low dew points allowed early morning temps to fall to low levels. Temps in the Town of Mammoth were as low as 0 F  this morning.

Latest RAMSIS showing  snow showers over the Northern Sierra and the leading edge of a cloud band that is currently over Alpine County to our north. This leading edge of the cloud shield is shifting south and will begin to increase cloudiness in Mammoth either later this morning or by this afternoon. Since the system is tracking so far west, little or very light amounts of snowfall is expected.  A scant to in inch possibly tonight. Tuesday looks partly cloudy with  highs in the low 30s.

Wednesday will be dry with highs in the mid 30s.

The next system is still being handled differently by the both the EC and the GFS. They have sort of flipped flopped in there thinking. Now the GFS is slower and tapping subtropical moisture from under the ridge.  There is strong blocking pattern associated with this storm and the system will also be tapping very cold Arctic air from a sizable pool up over the NW territories. Some of the coldest air of the season will be released into the far west into the back of this storm, and so the second half of what we get will be very light and powdery. The real question at this point is how quickly it will move through. The slower track will allow for more snow to accumulate. The models at the moment range from 1 to 2 inches of QPF.  But that is significant, at snow to water ratios of 15:1  to 20:1. Once again, more time is needed to fine tune this storm.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………………..:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Blue Bird Morning in Progress….Storm Total On Mammoth Mt 5.5 to 7.5 Feet!…..Over 3 Feet in Town

Mammoth Mountain reports storm total 64 to 92 inches!

Some areas on Mammoth Mountain approaching a 20 foot base!


The Dweebs received reports from locals of the best powder of the year so far as the top of Mammoth Mountain opened Saturday. The weather maps this morning indicated a short wave ridge over the area  keeping us precipitation free today. Crystal clear ultra blue skies this morning were expected to cloud up somewhat later today as there was enough cold unstable air aloft for this reason. High temps today in town were expected to be near 30 degrees with lows upwards to the mid 30s on Washington’s Birthday.

The next weather system appears to be developing far enough west off shore to keep most of its precip out of our area. Although there will be plenty of cloudiness, and some possible snow showers Monday night or early Tuesday Am…..The main effect of this upper low will be clouds and some increase in wind over the crest. Temperatures early next week will remain below normal in this NNW flow aloft upper air pattern.

Longer Range:

The longer range looks more interesting. Last nights 00z global models had significant differences. The Canadian and American GFS has a very cold plunging upper trof that will bring mainly light to moderate amounts of snowfall to the Eastern Sierra Thursday/Friday. The European on the other hands forms a closed low up off the coast of the Pacific Northwest which allows the upper pattern to bow out off shore and tap subtropical moisture from under the upper ridge north of Hawaii. The latter pattern is slower and wetter pattern while the former pattern is colder and dryer.  The ensemble’s favor the colder dryer scenario at this time. However, the very new 12z Sunday GFS run just took a turn to follow a match more like the European. Whether this works out is still unknown at this time as this is quite a change from the number of GFS runs showing the former colder dryer scenario.

Stay Tuned, the Dweebs have you covered!………………………………..:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

21 inches at the Village at Mammoth and Counting…..

This has been certainly one of the more difficult storms to forecast. The idea of late yesterday afternoon in keeping the main snow amounts of the first system north of Tioga Pass/Yosemite is pretty much been thrown out with the bucket. The two little jewels (short waves) that the Dweebs wrote about two days ago are heal to heal. The weather front is stationary just north of Tahoe. So what will appear to happen, will be that the first of the two systems hit us broad side later today and tonight. The has been a tremendous amount of IR enhancement on the Satellite that past several hours. HPC QPF indicates that we could easily see double of what we have already received this morning.  Since the system will lift from the southwest…the will be a period of warmer air with it….and so snow to water ratios will go down with it being wetter…before the ratios increase again afterwords.

 The weather front is expected to become more north/south orientated by early Saturday morning so the second system will hit mainly to the south of us Saturday. It will be showery Saturday as the cold core moves through with improving weather Sunday.

Longer Range:

Although there will be a few cold showery periods between Sunday and the end of the Month….The next good sized storm will come in “about”  the 1st of March.

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.