Ensemble members rapidly increasing trend toward wet pattern for California by Mid Month…Subtropical tap/connection very possible with set up….

Beautiful weekend shaping up…still gusty NNE winds over the sierra crest expected.  Expect highs in the upper 40s and low 50s this weekend with lows in the teens and 20s. Light breezes will be the rule for most areas excluding the sierra crest.

Outlook:

Next inside slider is headed for the Great basin Tuesday. Winds will pick up again with colder weather Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs will return back into the 30s.  The new 12z GFS has the system digging a bit further west now and so a dry back door cold front is expected with strong north wind for the Owens Valley Tuesday afternoon/night.  The weather looks milder Thursday into Friday.  Expect  increasing wind over the upper elevations that next weekend.  

LONG RANGE:

Over the past two days there has been a rapid increase of ensemble members showing a pattern change for the central west coast to a stormy one.  As usual…the timing is different between global model’s ECMWF and GFS. The ECMWF is faster with the change bringing snow to the Mammoth high country as early as the following weekend with the GFS holding it off until the following Monday the 14th.  Using the timing of Cylkes western pacific surface bomb 96 hour rule, the first surface system moves off Japan and spins up the night of the 10th…..so it energy should propagate through the west coast the night of the 14th (Monday). Then another stronger rapidly intensifying surface system moves off Japan the night of the 13th, and so its energy (propagate) would be expected to come through the west coast the night of the 17th based upon this mornings data snap shot. 

The good news is that the upper ridge at this time is forecasted to develop a REX Block signature and is expected to locate between 170w to 180 west. The tropical upper low that is part of the REX block is located about 28N and just east of the dateline. Strong convergence with the easterlies is hinted at, with a train of thunderstorms developing north of Hawaii the night of the 11th into the 12th. This tropical/subtropical moisture may get entrained into the first system headed for the Pacific northwest. As the polar jet slides south, the fetch may follow into California the week of the 14th.

Highlights:

Because of where the upper long wave ridge is setting up….This pattern is good for the development of tropical moisture which may entrain subtropical moisture and involve the confluence of both the polar and subtropical jets into California.

The upper ridge is still in a favorable position as late as 384 hours out and so an active pattern may continue once started, into the 3rd week of February.

Note:  We still have a long way to go time wise, and thus a lot can happen between today and next week. The Dweebs will keep good thoughts and hope that the models still show that a good dumping is in store for our area by mid month.


The Dweeber………………………:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Moderating temps over the weekend……Continued dry through the middle of next week….Pattern Change Still Looks Good

The cold pool of Arctic air that flushed through the CONUS’ west and mid sections yesterday was centered over New Mexico.  This is expected to spin up an upper low today over northern MX and is expected to give the SE quite a drenching with another ice storm possible over the next 5 days.

Back west…were still looking for our next big dump. One thing is for sure, it won’t happen this week and most likely won’t happen through the middle of next! Sounding forecasts show warming at 700mb the next two days with highs in Mammoth at 8000 ft  in the low 50s Saturday, Sunday and Monday.  There is still a strong surface gradient as well as upper level support the next couple of days, so it will remain windy over the crest.

Next Week:

Another inside slider seems probable as the eastern pacific high amps along 135W and another 1046mb surface high slips south from western Canada into Montana. So far the 540Dm thickness  isohyet remains over east central NV so this should not be as cold as the system last Monday. However,  the gradient’s will  tighten up again and no doubt it will blow over the crest again by Tuesday/Wednesday.

Beyond Wednesday is the big question. The Dweebs have been touting a pattern change for quite a while now for the middle of February. The models have been playing hide and seek with the prospects of another wet pattern setting up.  We are approaching the end of another 21 day cycle of 42 days since the first few day of January which the Dweebs have counted as the end of the Wet pattern of December. The Dweebs also  indicated in one of the December discussions that patterns often times repeat themselves over the course of a particular wet season. Will the next pattern to wet be a repeat of the December loader busters with record heavy wet snows for the Sierra?  Time will tell…

What I am watching:

1. Looking at this mornings ensembles SEE:  http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_0z/ensloopnew.html

You can see that for the 240 hour period only 3 out of the 12 ensembles offer any hope of a significant pattern change. However by the 288 hour it increases to 5 out of 12. Not great but encouraging….

2. Next week begins a period of a series of deepening cyclones coming off Asia….with their track shifting south later in the week to eventually coming off Japan. There is one  pertictular surface cyclone that spins up off Japan and becomes a super bomb about the 11th of February. This should enhance the process of retrogression as the cyclone builds an 500mb  high back between the dateline and Kauai. This is sort of the pattern that developed last December. The scenario included a REX Block  with a tropical fetch that became confluent with the polar jet south AK.  See the new 12z February 3rd, GFS North pacific 500MB.     http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_12z_500npac.shtml

Additionally, it is curious that the Wheeler-Hedon Phase Space is forecasted to move into the same phase space as last December. See:    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

With all of the above said, this time the AO Arctic Oscillation is in the  positive phase and so the downstream High Lat blocking is not supportive. Will that make a difference? The Dweebs do not know……

Time will tell……

Next week will be quite interesting as to what kind of a wet pattern change will develop…..


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)




————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Burr! The Chill Is On….Mammoth Marmot Says 6 More Weeks Of Winter!

Mammoth Marmot saw his shadow this morning. He braved the cold modified Arctic Air to do his job. 6 more weeks of winter……Hope he’s right!

Chilly morning in Mammoth with the lows  -1F  (FS) to +5F (Mammoth Weather.com-8200ft) at Sunrise. Winds over the tippy-tops that gusted to 80MPH yesterday were only gusting to 50mph this morning. Moderate winds just over the crest will continue today up to about 50MPH.

Modified Arctic air will continue to effect our area today with highs near freezing……the Surface high over the Rockies this morning had a barometric pressure of 31.06!  No doubt that system was interconnected with the strong deep low that traveled up toward Chicago yesterday that brought an historic blizzard to that greater region.

Forecast:

Back west….The forecast shows the upper ridge off shore building into the west coast far enough east to send freezing levels up to 12,000 by Friday. That is going to set up quite a temperature inversion the next day or two. For Mammoth, it means that after today, highs will moderate into the upper 30s Thursday, then well into the 40s by Friday and even 50 by Saturday.  However, our neighbors that live along the highway 395 corridor will experience very cold temps the next few mornings with lows -10 to -15 or colder in some locations. Daytime highs could be trapped in the twenties tomorrow throughout Long valley and Bridgeport valley.

Longer Range:

The Good News: There is a large spread in the ensembles over the far west and eastern pacific. This means that there is less confidence in the latest deterministic model runs yesterday and today for that time period. (Mid-February)

The Bad News: There is an increase in ensemble members trending away from the idea now of any retrogression far enough west for a wet pattern setting up by Mid February. The next few days will be more important to the trend of the way the pattern is going to go.


Think Snow>>>>>>>

On the Sunspot Cycle-Global Cooling Arena…Check out John L. Casey’s latest update!

1.  http://spaceandscience.net/id16.html

2.  http://spaceandscience.net/id67.html


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)


————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.