Looks Like A Week Of Nuisance Weather…Then MJO rising next week…..possible stormy period the end of January into the first week of February.

A strengthening upper jet into the pacific northwest brought light warm advection snowfall to the eastern sierra this morning. About an inch has fallen on Mammoth Mt and a dusting in town. Expect another inch or so to fall throughout the day today and tonight. In that heights will be gradually rise this week, we can expect warmer temperatures. Highs in Mammoth in the mid 30s today then low 40s Wednesday and Thursday followed by upper 40s over the weekend and approaching 50 by Sunday/Monday. This is setting the stage for a possible January thaw.

Precipitation will be very light all week with periods of gusty winds mostly confined to the upper elevations……hence “Nuisance Weather”!


MJO:

Yes…there is confirmation now that we have a strengthening MJO.

See: http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html

Note:  The location within the graph of the MJO is on the border between phase space 5 and 6. It is possibly 1 to 2 standard deviations of normal.  The number 10 represents the day of the month which is currently January. The further the distance between the center of the chart to the outer end the stronger the MJO.

Now look at the Dynamic Model MJO Forecasts:

See:  http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

One can see that the GFS forecasting system is forecasting quite an impressive MJO.

And just as importantly……

The location of the MJO moves into a very-very favorable teleconnected area, Phases (7 and 8 ) (El Nino Like).  Historically, this area has teleconnected well with strong west coast storms, including but not limited to the dreaded Pineapple Connection.  Although it is still to early to make forecasts and the fantasy charts of the GFS has of yet,  not picked up on any significant amplitude. They do have quite the strengthening lower latitude upper jet beginning to extend eastward north of Hawaii toward the west coast by the 21st.  

Again..the dynamic MJO forecasts indicate a strengthing signel during the upcoming week with eastward propagation through the end of next week. Most importantly….the “Enhansed Convective Phase”  is forecast to be entering the western hemisphere about the 25th of January. This may set the stage for a possible stormy period for the west coast toward the end of January and into the first week of February.


Stay tuned WX Dweebs……It may get quite fun!


A comment from the Climatic Prediction Center:

1/10/11

ANOTHER CONSIDERATION FOR THE WEEK-TWO PERIOD IS  THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT MJO EVENT WHICH IS STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY GFS  FORECASTS.  THE PHASE OF THE MJO IS FORECAST TO BE IN A REGION OF CRITICAL  TELECONNECTIONS TO THE CIRCULATION OVER NORTH AMERICA, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME,  IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO FACTOR ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE FORECAST WITH ANY DEGREE OF  CONFIDENCE, OTHER THAN TO REDUCE CERTAINTY.


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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Cooler Weather and Quite Breezy Over The Upper Elevations Sunday

Just a quick update this morning…

It’s very breezy over the upper elevations this morning. With the ambient temperatures in the 20s today dress warmly up on O’l Woolly!

Strong upper jet NW-SE  Cutting through Nevada today. Dry cold front will slowly make its way through southern Mono County later this afternoon. A wind shift should occur for the Owens Valley tonight and so expect north winds to really pick-up this evening. (15 to 30mph)

Highs in the Town of Mammoth will be a bit higher then forecast as the front has slowed down. As of this writing,  the town has probably peaked on temps  for the day (33 degrees)…..while night time lows will drop into the single digits. Light breezes are expected for the TOM.

For the coming week…the main storm track will be well into the pacific northwest. For the Central Sierra,  expect mostly light to possibly moderate warm advection type (Isentropically lifted) precipitation. So some light snowfall is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. There will be some chance of light snow throughout most of next week. Snow levels will rise most of the week. High temps will go from the mid 20s Monday to the 30s by Tuesday into Thursday then into the 40s by next weekend. There is still a possibility of a January thaw the following week.

The key to our longer range I believe is whether or not a MJO develops week 2 and modulates the westerlies as the NAO is going to be in the positive mode toward the longer term.

See: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

LA NINA is still raging!…….

See: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

High Cloudiness Invades Mammoth This Afternoon With Dry Cold Front On The Way…..Warm Advection Snowfall Still On The Way For Tuesday And Beyond…..

What does January 4th, 2011 and January 4th, 1983 have in common? They both have very nearly the same amount of water content upon Mammoth Pass to date. Some other interesting notes…  The winter of 1983 was the wettest winter on record according to DWP for the Mammoth Pass.  Now for the Irony. The winter of 1983 was associated with the strongest El Ninos on record! The winter of 2011 is so far associated with a La Nina that’s one of the strongest on record so far.  Wet La Nina….Wet El Nino!    See:   http://www.ladwp.com/ladwp/cms/ladwp013390.pdf


Current Weather:

By 8pm or 9pm tonight a dry cold front will push south of our region……Aided by an upper jet approaching 150knots by Sunday PM across Nevada. Temperatures at 700MB are forecasted to be as cold as -10C on the east side of the Whites and on the west side… -6.5C. Nevertheless another dump of cold air is destined for the high altitude valleys that just got done with temps as cold as -20F.  There will be some -10F locations by Tuesday Am.  

The big forecast challenge is whether or not the valleys get some freezing rain next week along the highway 395 corridor….. Or will it be below freezing through the column?

For the Mammoth and June area, the Dweebs expect periods of light snow fall on and off through the end of the new week. Some days possibly an inch or two, others days 3 to 6 inches within any 12 hour period. Thursday looks a bit better for a system that may bring a bit more.

The Big picture:

Overall this coming week, the models maintain and agree that the high latitudes will remain blocked up with a strong -AO. The big Alaskan block will drift slowly west northwest from northeast AK into Eastern Siberia. Through the process…..the westerlies will undercut the big block and merge with a deepening trof in the mean over southwest Canada.

The tempo will pick up later this week as the storms will move faster under the block.  At this time….it appears that the Town of Mammoth Lakes will be mostly south of this storm track. Precipitation should be Light to at times possibly moderate later in the week.  The Dweebs Snowfall Criteria for Mammoth…..Light: 1 to 6 inches within any 12 hours period; Moderate: 6 to 18 inches within any 12 hour period.

With all that said there are some ensemble members that have the storm track further south into Central Ca later in the week. However, for the time being….the majority keep the brunt well to our north.

Again it appears that Mammoth will have a week of warm advection precipitation. IE…..isentropic induced snowfall.

Note:

There will be something to watch out for after the 15th:

Is the the Dynamical Model MJO forecasting a rapidly strengthening MJO later this week that will move well into the Western Pacific the following week?

See; http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Never a Dull Moment!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)


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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.