Another 8.5 inches fell upon Mammoth Mt over night…..Snow showers possible today with highs in the 30s…..Warmest day this week to be Friday with a chance of showers returning this weekend……Models beginning to trend milder by Holiday Weekend?

Latest RAMSIS showing that most of the action has shifted into the Southern Sierra this morning. However, there is still quite a bit of showers over Western Nevada. Looking a the heights/vorticity from this mornings WRF, there are still a couple of vort centers that have to clear the state today and with the flow backing to the NE later tonight….showers a good bet today with even some up-slope showers tonight into Thursday Am possible. The Dweebs do not expect any more then an inch or two max. It’s cold today with highs in the 30s then 40s Thursday. Friday will be in the upper 50s. The weekend looks cooler then normal with some showers possible Saturday into Monday, but not nearly as cold as it has been.

Longer Range Ponderings……

What is consistent in the global models is that they all keep at least some blocking over northwest North America from this mornings runs. This  usually implies a suppressed jet into the west coast for sometime. However, some of the models are retrograding the central pacific upper ridge  to the western pacific later next week which would tend to ridge us up.  MJO dynamic models not much help. It is likely that clearity will return by the early next week for the following weekend.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)


THE MISSING LINK?

A new paper recently released from Scientists at AARHUS University proves a cosmic ray/cloud link. The more cloud cover covering the world the lower the global temperatures and vice versa. The amount of particles reaching the earth is partly controlled by solar activity and is very important to climate modeling.


SEE LINK BELOW:

http://science.au.dk/en/news-and-events/news-article/artikel/forskere-fra-au-og-dtu-viser-at-partikler-fra-rummet-skaber-skydaekke/

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Snow developing later this evening with heavy snow after midnight…another foot possible over the crest by Wednesday pm…..Break Thursday and Friday then more unsettled weather this weekend…..

Well its the middle of May and the Dweebs are always thinking about weather and climate. Although, snow in the month of May is not unusual here in Mammoth, and in fact happens in most years, the persistence of cooler then normal temps is. Just look at the snow pack for this time of the year. It is still at least 150% of normal. The roads in the lakes basin and down to Reds meadow is probably with still 7 to 10 feet over the top and it is likely that the road over Tioga will not open until well into June.  There are the reports of 75 foot snowpacks covering roads in the mountain areas of the pacific northwest.  Must be Global Warming?  😉

Blame it on the negative PDO and a very slow awaking Sun from a long hibernation.

The negitive phase of the pacific decadial oscillation (PDO) is going strong and if history repeats itself may continue more on then off for the next 20 to 30 years. That means that the SSTs over the eastern pacific are colder then normal and that the west should have more precipitation and colder WX in the years to come. Summer may tend to be cooler and winters earlier and longer. El Ninos will tend to be weaker or shorter lived. If you want to get an idea of the weather for a negative PDO just study the weather of the 1930s, 40s and 50s here in this country. Watch La Nina this year. It is currently weakening and should pretty much be gone by Summer. However, watch and see if it does not return this Fall!

Current Discussion:

Active pattern to continue through Wednesday.  A Cold/wet upper low with a 130knot upper jet will cut through Central Ca  through tomorrow.

The position of the upper jet is west northwest and the axis just south of Mammoth. Good for divergence aloft in the front left quad over Mammoth.  Although the second impulse fizzled last night, the next one or the 3rd in the series will bring heavy snowfall after midnight tonight into Wednesday morning, with several inches accumulation on our local roads, especially above 8000 feet. Over a foot of new is possible over the crest by Wed PM.

Unstable air aloft with warming surfaces will allow a few afternoon convective showers to develop each afternoon Thursday and Friday…then a new negative trof digs in Saturday with more unsettled weather through Monday. 

When will it end?  When will warm weather return to the high country for an extended visit?

It is the Dweebs opinion that track of MJO will play an important part in the pattern across the Pacific and the west coast. The problem is that the forecast from NCEP is for the MJO to circle back from its current position in Phase 8 into phase 7 during the last week of May. However, the ECMWF does not agree as it progresses MJO through phase 8 as it weekens it rapidly.  Hopfully by the end of this week they will become more in agreement.  For whatever it is worth the 8 to 14 days outlooks do build a ridge into California by the end of the month. However, this possibility is probably unlikely, as based upon persistence, and the NCEP MJO model, the Dweebs feel that the storm machine will probably keep right on cranking into June.


The Dweeber………………….:-)


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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Persistant long wave trof over the Eastern Pacific to give long stretch of unsettled weather beginning Saturday through middle of next week

This morning operational GFS was consistent with last nights run of both GFS 00z and ECMWF for another period of cold unsettled weather beginning Saturday into Wednesday of next week. The off shore negative height anomaly is being anchored by a persistent upper height anomaly north of the Hawaiian islands. At the same time there is possibly some feedback with the warm water pool north of the Hawaii islands as well.  In fact, the area between the dateline and 150w is really warming up!

The longer range shows a zonal flow pattern with a pretty strong belt of westerlies across the pacific on the 18th. The upper ridge begins to amp again north of 150w,  the end of the week….and so another period of cooler then normal wx is probably in the cards later.

Expect a few nice days here in Mammoth with highs in the 60s by Friday. Steepening laps rates will allow some thunder later Friday pm followed by an increase of wind Saturday and blustery and windy and cooler Sunday with snowfall in the high country.  Highs will cool back into the lower 40s by Sunday and the return of 20s is expected Sunday night. Next week through mid week looks showery.


The Dweeber……………..:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.