Cooler Breezy Weather The Word as Longer Range Models See-Saw About When Monsoon II Returns…..

Cooling continues here in the high country as HT 500 Heights continue to slowly fall. Winds have been mostly in the 15 to 35 MPH range with stronger gusts in the more wind prone areas. The more dynamic portion of the upper trof will arrive Thursday into Friday as the models provide enough dynamics for a few isolated TSRWs. High temperatures Tuesday into Thursday  will be in the 60s in Mammoth. The new model runs are a bit slower to move the upper trof out this weekend now. However, HT 500 heights do recover enough over the weekend for a slow warm up.  (Saturday and Sunday low to mid 70s)

The more significant change in the Models now is for next week.  It is the configuration of the westward expanding upper ridge and the apparent delay of Monsoon II. The configuration of the upper ridge is critical to whether the PWAT plume can move up into the Central Sierra.  The latest 00z and 06z runs seem to portray this upper ridge more egg shaped with an axis of the SSE flow next week south of Mammoth…..turning the corner east…..well south of our area. This is a new twist to the longer range models and upper pattern. It is being caused by a stronger pacific northwest trof and its accompanying southwest upper flow. 

So for the time being or based upon thre latest guidence, we will get all the warming without a lot of moisture. Sure isolated TSRW will from next week but the true Monsoon Plume will hold off later next week based upon current model trends. 


FYI 

Stay tuned on this one as it would not take a big change to flip back again!  If you are planning an extended trip to the back country and plan on climbing higher terrain it would be very important to know the extended weather next week.  Based upon Climo….the 3rd and 4th week of July is usually a very active time here in the Eastern Sierra for strong thunderstorms……



The Dweeber……………………………..:-)



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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Drier Airmass Ends Thunderstorms Threat For The High Country….Seasonal Temps This Weekend Then Cooler Next Week

Monday Noon Update:

New 12z GFS has quite the PWAT plume coming into Southern Ca this Sunday and flooding northward Monday into much of next week. This is so much faster then what it looked like Saturday. This looks like Monsoon II on Steroid’s!

Quick Update Monday Morning…..

 

No change to this weeks forecast other then to introduce a slight chance of a shower eastern portions Friday. This is associated with the current trof that is descending from the northwest. The cool air may linger now into Friday…….see discussion below:


This is a change to the longer range in retrograding or expending the upper high over the midwest faster with the ECMWF deterministic bringing HT 500 594dm into Eastern Ca Monday a week from today. That would certainly toast us up quicker. However the EC ensemble is not so bullish. The Dweebs point out that both the EC and the GFS are quicker in bringing a return to Monsoon II next week then their earlier runs……  Will keep you all in the loop!………………


The Dweeber……..:-)



Sunday morning 00z and 06z GFS update still showing precipitable water increases the weekend of the 22/23/24th for possible Monsoon part II.

From Saturday AM:

Although Dew Points still fairly high (low 40s)…..PWAT’s now real low over Mono County….Down around .25 to .30…..with increased stability…..the Thunderstorm threat less than 10% now.  Expect seasonal temperatures the rest of the weekend with stronger Zephyr winds in the afternoon and evening hours. Highs in Mammoth in the mid to upper 70s today and Sunday with lows in the 40s. The temperature this weekend may be the last of the upper 70s for a week…..

The trofing that has initiated the dryer air mass is expected to deepen next week with lower heights and much cooler temps by mid week. In fact highs will cool well down in the 60s by mid week with stronger Zephyr winds. Nighttime lows will drop into the 30s. The Jazz Fest will begin on a strong breezy note Wednesday but will finish with weekend highs back into the low 70s.  The Zephyr will be strong enough for 30 to 40 MPH winds Wednesday afternoon and evening and with the 564DM thickness iso-hyet into the area, Sunrise Thursday morning may be a little frosty on the golf courses. It appears that Thursday will be the coolest day with some moderation in temps back into the low 70s by the weekend.

The two global models suggest that the subtropical continental high will retrograde westward about the 21st for a return more seasonal summer weather. The Dweebs noticed that in the longer range, that PWAT increases again from the SSE the weekend of the 22/23/24th.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………….:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Monsoon Moisture pretty much flushed out now as thunderstorm threat in slight chance catogory…..Expect dry & breezier weather next week with cooler then normal temps……

It was a nice change this past week as an early summer season monsoon surge brought some nice showers to the region. Mammoth Lakes did not have any excessive heavy rains…only some light showers with about .15 hundreds in the Dweebs rain tip bucket.

Now we are looking at another change in pattern. This will be somewhat similar to the pattern we had during last June with West Coast trofing ruling the weather throughout the State of California. The strengthening trof has already flushed out most of the rich PWAT over the central and northern Sierra. However, dew points are still running in the high 40s and low 50s, an indication that there is enough residual moisture to warrant isolated TSRWs through the weekend in the high country.

Weekend Weather and beyond:

With the trof set up now in the northwest, a short wave will move through today with a short wave ridge following tonight into Saturday. This brief rise in heights along with dryer air will allow the warming of temps to near normal Saturday. Upper 70s in Mammoth and near 100 in Bishop. However, by the early part of next week, amplification will take place and the long wave that will deepened south over California. It will then grow cooler and breezier Tuesday into Wednesday with at least a moderate Zephyr Tuesday afternoon. HT 500 Heights will lower into the low/mid 570s and 500mb-1000mb thicknesses down to about 570DM. That’s good for 30s after midnight and upper 60s/low 70s for highs in Mammoth with breeze.  That particular short wave will kick out next Thursday. There is some indication that heights will recover somewhat into the following weekend.  That is the weekend of the JAZZ Fest. It looks dry, a bit breezy in the late afternoon with highs in the low to possibly mid 70s.

 

ENSO:

The latest ENSO advisory has come out from NOAA.

It says:

1. ENSO is currently running neutral.

2. That the warming subsurface SSTs are weakening

3. That we are probably headed toward La Nina again for the Winter of 2011/2012

 

Dweeb Comment:

The PDO is still plenty negative and solar activity is anomalously low.

The Dweebs believe that this trend may leed to another good winter/water year for the high country if La Nina intensifies again.

Here is a nice article by Goeff Sharp (solar scientist) on the PDO vs ENSO

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/221

 

 

 

 

 

 

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.