Neusence weather pattern through weekend to bring snow light snow or snow showers to the high country

Nuisance is the word to describe the weather the rest of the week. Cloudy at times, light snow or snow showers beginning Thursday night….breezy in town and windy over the crest with temps more seasonal for this time of the year. The Dweebs call it nuisance weather, because if it isn’t going to snow deep  than one could argue that it should just be sunny? 

The upshot of the forecast is the flat ridge currently over the far west will shift east a bit into next week. With a weak split trof to the west. The upper flow is still severely split coming off Asia and that carries pretty much on east to the west coast through next week. The Global Models still forecast a block to form near the dateline. However, if the block set up much further west, a major upper ridge will form over or near the west coast for quite a spectacular period of  fair weather. I see the upper jet for the most part well north of Mammoth for quite some time.


SOLAR UPDATE:


Don’t know how many of you have been following the ramp up of solar cycle 24, but the ramp up is about as anemic as one can be.

Geoff Sharp is a solar scientist that studies the Sun and believes that in his theory, that the planets modulate the solar cycle VS the vast majority of science work, that believes that the Sun is self modulating and a product of random number generation. According to Geoff, this will soon be put to the test over the next 6 months.

The issue is, that the “number of sunspots” in this particular cycle, is becoming far short of what should be happening at this point of the cycle.  By next year, if his theory is correct, a lot of news will be about our Sun and the effects that may come upon our planet over the coming years. The thought is that low numbers of Sunspots will cause the earth to cool slightly over the next few decades. The is a very controversial topic that has huge political implications.


See: http://www.landscheidt.info/

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Pattern change to bring milder temps along with over running clouds…some light snowfall possible toward weeks end

The upper flow remains split coming off Asia. The upper jet is divided and so is the energy. To weaken the pattern further…..the short waves in the two upper flows are out of phase with each other. For the central west coast, this has the effect of creating smaller/weaker storms with less precipitation. Expect some light snowfall beginning late Thursday PM into the weekend. HPC QPF is just shy of 1/2 inch for our area through Saturday pm. (3 to 6 inches of snow?)

Longer Range:

There are some significant changes coming about during the second week of December (week-2).  A block sets up near the dateline with a negative tilt ridge importing cold arctic air via the Bering Sea into the Gulf of AK. At the present time, the mean long wave trof position is just outside of 140W, suggesting that the upper jet axis will remain to our north…. more over Northern Ca. This normally keeps the Central Sierra in the warm sector most of the time.  However, this time of the year, this could be quite a wet pattern for the Central Sierra with higher snow levels….. 7000 ft to 9,000ft?  With time…the  jet would most likely sag south into the Central Sierra. This pattern change will be the next WX topic over the following two weeks.

Just a Dweeb Observation……….

It sure has been good to see that heights have been moderately high over the Hudson Bay area so far this fall. As a result, SSTA’s are running some .5c to 3.5c in Hudson Bay. The large body of water is still unfrozen.  I believe that this is not due to global warming but due to global weather patterns.

The key height anomaly has been to this point, displaced far enough to the east to keep the wavelength somewhat excessive allowing good progression of the short wave features. Greenland Blocks that have been developing have not lasted long as the upper jet has either broken them down, or have carried off a lot of the cold Arctic air out over the Atlantic!  This is how a wet central west coast winters works best!

The Dweeber………………………:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Short Wave Ridging To Bring Welcome Warming This Week…..Then A Chance Of Light Snow By The Weekend


It was a cold morning in Mammoth. -5F in town and 0F at the Village.  The Coldest temps ranged from -15F to -20F in the coldest valleys early this AM.

New 12z WRF had the upper jet north/south over Eastern Ca this morning with the progs translating it eastward out of here by tonight!  That will allow the gusty winds over the crest to expire later today and temps to finally warm up over the residential sections tomorrow. However…it will be another cold day today with highs in the 20s again for The Town of Mammoth.

The Eastern Pacific Pattern is overall pretty benign for the central west coast. IE. with shortwave ridging the  next few days then a small split off system coming into California late Thursday/Friday. 

The upper jet remains pretty split coming off of  Eastern Asia. With the jet split, there tends to create an overall pattern of out of phase systems over several areas of the Pacific.  For the west coast it generally means that central west coast big storms are on hold for a while.


HPC QPF for the Central Sierra is about 1/2 inch through Saturday AM. 


Longer range:

Of note…The Dweebs are seeing something develop…..an Arctic jet at the top of the Greenland Block that will move along in the Polar Easterlies and circumnavigate the globe and eventually end up in the Gulf Of AK by Mid month. The fantasy charts blow up a monster of a storm later in the second week of Dec associated with this Cold Arctic low.  Between now and then the mean ridge position appears to be near the dateline. The wavelength suggests that the next series of strong west coast storms will be much warmer and wetter. The entrainment of tropical moisture is also a possibility.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)



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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms