Getting Ready for a Mammoth Blizzard!!

Storm still looking good this morning.

There are four distinct features here:

1. The cold front will come through Mammoth about 11:00pm tonight. The bulk of the snowfall associated with the front with occur with and post frontal. So am not expecting snowfall to really pick up until later tonight.  WSFO RNO is expecting 3 to 5 inches in town by about sunrise.

2. First 500mb short wave comes through about 12 noon Saturday. So expect strong UVM between Sunrise and about 12:00pm Saturday along with moderate to heavy snow potential.

3.  There may or may not be much of a let up in precipitation between the 1200 noon and the passage of then next and main short wave which seems to have a double vort structure and drags through about Sunday mid afternoon.  There is going to be a very heavy period of snowfall between late Saturday afternoon and 12:00pm Sunday.

4. The 3rd short wave is being depicted by the GFS as an either NW west slider or inside slider while the NAM/WRF has still has some over water trajectory. Either way it look showery for Monday Am and of course cold. Snow totals still look good for up to 4 feet over the powder fields of Mammoth Mountain and a good two feet+ in the Village.

Of note, the new GFS as a few more sliders coming down over the great basin even as late at Wednesday, I do not expect much more then maybe some Mcflurries from them…..but it will be quite cold this coming week until Thanksgiving with moderating temps thereafter…..Longest range is hinting at some over running….later the following weekend……

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)

Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Updated snowfall QPF and Snowfall For Weekend Storm

This afternoons models continued to show strong height falls along the pacific coast into the Great Basin over the weekend. Several additional impulses will follow the original front Friday afternoon, well south into California Saturday.  Moderate precipitation will shift south from Northern Ca, down through the Central Sierra after the initial front moves through Friday afternoon. By Friday night, moderate snowfall is expected in Mammoth. Then heavier snowfall will develop over the Central Sierra later Saturday, as the reloading of height falls occurs Saturday and a closed low develops off the extreme Northern Ca coast by evening. This will have the effect of driving an even stronger moisture fetch into the Sierra, later Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Heavy snowfall will occur at this time in the Mammoth Area.

HPC 5 day QPF is boosted over the crest close to 3.00 storm total by Monday.  Again…snow to water ratios will begin at about 10:1 then grow to about 20:1 by Saturday night. Thus snowfall totals, “up to” 2 feet is possible at elevations at 8000…. and up to as high as 4 feet over the crest for the Central and Northern Sierra by Monday.

The Dweeber………………………..:-)

Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Last Mellow Day Today…Then Winds On the Increase Tonight….Storm May Now Linger Into Tuesday

Just a quick update this morning…

No real changes accept to slow the progress of main trofs exit early next week into Tuesday. The models have been very persistent in the early timing.  So…here we go…..

Expect sunny skies today with light winds. Highs in the mid 50s with winds on the increase this evening becoming moderate by midnight…then gusts to 50 mph Thursday through Friday. There will not be much temperature change until the 1st front moves in later Friday.  By Friday, highs will cool to the 40s in town.

Snowfall will occur at about the 6500 foot level Friday night and by Saturday morning there will be about 2 to 3 inches in town and about 3 to 6 inches over the upper elevations. Snowfall will become heavier Saturday and into that night with Blizzard conditions possible along the highway 395 corridor.  Travel maybe treacherous along the highway 395 corridor north to Reno.  Snowfall should taper off early Sunday. However, snowfall is likely all weekend, and on and off into Tuesday next week.    Snowfall ratios will begin at about 10:1 then increase to near 20:1 by the time the Arctic air gets into the region later Saturday.  As far as the 550-1000mb Thickness….The magic 540Dm thickness isohyet is located just south of Mammoth by 00z Sunday with further thickness falls down to 528Dm by 12z Monday.  Tallies could be some 2 to 3 feet over the upper elevations by Monday morning with a foot or two near the village.  Before the main upper trof exits, a cold Arctic born inside slider will put the icing on the cake Tuesday. Milder weather will develop toward Thanksgiving day with an even milder weekend! Another storm looks possible the first week of December………………….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………:-)

Reference Glossary of Weather Terms