Sunny, Cold and Breezy Today…..Warmer Temps Thursday and Friday

As forecasted….1 to 2 feet fell in the high country yesterday. The front came through about 6:30 pm noted by the wind-shift at Mammoth AP. Winds at 6:30pm were SW gusting to 40MPH then NE to 6 MPH by 7:00pm.  Winds were quite strong locally during the mid to late afternoon with a ground blizzard in many locations.  So far this year Mammoth Mountain has picked up 68.5 inches of snow. Although the water content may not be as high as in the past 30 years…there is a perception that the amount of snowfall so early in the season is within the realm of a 35 year event. Those that purchased a seasons pass this year will certainly get so much more then their moneys worth!


Forecast charts:

This mornings NAM/WRF showed the upper low at 12z Wednesday over Western Montana with a NW flow aloft at 18,000 feet. The upper jet is still offshore and so as the upper Trof comes in, that jet will have to follow…meaning that it will continue to be windy over the crest for sometime. 60 to 70mph winds are expected today into tonight confined to the sierra crest. There will still be  gusts  to 50mph into Thanksgiving Day. 1000-500mb thicknesses were 534dm this morning and so it is quite cold.  The coldest air is still aloft. However, once subsidence begins, that extreme cold will be be more confined to elevations 6000 to 7000 feet. Long Valley and Crowley may go to -10F or greater by tomorrow morning. At the same time, elevations above the inversion (8000ft) will get into the 30s Turkey day and even low 40s by Friday afternoon. 


Mixing will occur Saturday with the next Trof, and so the brief cold wave will come to an end. The Dweebs are not expecting a big storm over the weekend. So far then next system seems to be moisture starved with amounts well below winter weather criteria.  The next significant system will probably be around the 1st or 2nd of Dec.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)



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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Cold and Snowy The Rest Of The Day…Then Clearing Tonight and Fair For The ThanksGiving Holiday

No real changes to the forecast.  We are still looking at 6 to 12 inches in the Residential sections of Mammoth by evening with some 15 to 20 inches up on the mountain, (20:1). CRFC cut back their QPF this morning from the last update yesterday to about an inch. However, we are still within the previous forecast of 6 to 12 in town and 1 to 2 feet up on the hill.

Notably there will be a significant increase in wind this afternoon as the arctic front approaches and within a few hours of FROPA.  High temps today will remain in the low to mid 20s with lows tonight in the single digits.

Tomorrow’s forecast remain unchanged with fair skies, gusty sierra crest winds and highs in the teens and low 20s

Expect fair weather Thursday and Friday with highs 35 to 40 and lows in the teens and 20s at 8000 feet. Winds will not be an issue Thursday and Friday.

A small storm is expected over the weekend………………


The Dweeber


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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Its Cold! The Snow Is Deep…..And Another 1 to 2 feet Is On The Way!

Skies cleared in the Town of Mammoth this morning with the usual “Dave’s Cloud” shrouding the upper  Mountain. The mountain received a bonanza  of snowfall over the weekend with some 4 to 6.5 Feet reported! Near the village, I received about 3 feet .  There will be a bit of a break in the action today….however more is on the way!

The next system has tapped into a reservoir of cold Arctic  over NW Canada. It is moving very quickly and will push a front through our area by 00z Wednesday. Snow will once again begin to fall by tonight and become heavy by late Tuesday morning and persist in the moderate to heavy range through 4:oopm Tuesday then go showery Tuesday night.

Here is what the Dweebs want you to know:

1. According to the Monday 12z WRF, The coldest Air aloft will arrive by 06z Wednesday when 700mb temps reach -18c over Mammoth and -20c over Bridgeport.

2. At Mammoth Lakes, 1000-500mb Thicknesses drop to 523dm at FROPA (00z Wednesday)  as the Arctic Ribbon rapidly plunges through Mono County before shifting eastward. Although the pure Arctic will be mostly north and east (Over Idaho) It will still be plenty cold!

3. CRFC has updated their QPF forecast to indicate the following:

1. Huntington Lake,Ca     1.21 inches

2. Yosemite, Ca               1.44 inches

So the average QPF for our area would be about 1.33 inches.  It is easy to see that at 20:1, the upper elevations could get another 1 to 2 feet by Tuesday night!


Expect another 6 to 12 inches possible  in the Town of Mammoth.


Outlook:

Cold and Sunny is the word for Wednesday with Highs in the Upper teens in town. It is “Face Mask”  time for you skiers the next few days until the wind quits.

By Thanksgiving day it should be pretty windless by afternoon and we should all give thanks as well for the excellent ski conditions we have for so early in the season.  It will be fair and not so cold with highs in the 30s Thursday with lows in the single digits.  Friday will be windless and fair with Highs in the 30s lows in the teens and 20s. Expect strong Mtn  inversions by Friday.


The Weekend outlook calls for yet another storm by Saturday or Sunday. It is too early to begin speculating on how much snow it may bring. However, one thing is for sure, in that it will not be nearly as cold as the storms we just came through……………………:-)


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms