Cold inside slider pattern brings chill to the sierra


SNOW BEGAN LAST NIGHT MID EVENING AND CONTINUED ON AND OFF IN SHOWERS. THE CURRENT PATTERN, IS SET UP WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE PARKED OUT AT 140W, AND THE DOWN STREAM TROF OVER THE ROCKIES. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING ONSHORE NEAR WASHINGTON…..THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY THE UPPER JET NORTH/SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA, ATM.  EVEN THOUGH WE RECEIVED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER NIGHT AND MAY GET ANOTHER INCH TODAY, THIS IS A DRY PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

THE DWEEBS SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. THERE HAS BEEN SOME SUGGESTION IN RETROGRESSION IN THE LONG WAVE RIDGE BACK TOWARD 160W BEYOND WEEK ONE. HOWEVER, THAT IS STRICTLY SPECULATION AT THIS POINT, AS THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN THE ENSEMBLES OF EITHER GLOBAL MODEL.

INTER-SEASONAL:

WHAT IS REALLY NICE TO SEE SO FAR IS THAT THE WESTERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN FROM THE WEST TO EAST HAS BEEN TO THIS POINT, REALLY PROGRESSIVE, WITH OUT ANY LONG TERM BLOCKING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE HUDSON BAY AREA WHERE HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN ACTUALLY HIGHER THEN NORMAL IN THE MEAN. IF YOU LOOK AT THE SSTAS OVER HUDSON BAY, THEY ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THUS NO COLD THERMAL ANCHOR FEEDING BACK INTO THE OVERLYING ATMOSPHERE………SO FAR.

AS WEATHER EXPERT AND RETRIED WSFO LEED TOM CYLKEY ALWAYS SAID, THE TWO BIGGEST INFLUENCES ON MAMMOTH WEATHER IS THE HUDSON BAY LOW FOR WINTER WEATHER….AND THE  CONTINENTAL HIGH FOR SUMMERTIME WEATHER. IF THE HUDSON BAY LOW IS WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE, THERE WILL USUALLY BE ENOUGH ADJUSTMENT WAVE IN THE PATTERN TO ALLOW STORMS TO PENETRATE…WELL INTO CA.


HAVE A NICE WEEKEND…IT WILL BE FAIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.


DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS…………………………………..:-)

INSIDE SLIDER TO BRING SNOWSHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND COLDER TEMPS

“INSIDE SLIDER TO BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD TO THE HIGH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS….POSSIBLE WEAK MONO LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR LEE VINING WEDNESDAY NIGHT…THEN WEEKEND OUTLOOK IS FAIR AND DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS”

LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST OTHER THEN TO DRY THE SYSTEM OUT EVEN FURTHER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST QPF FROM RFC. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH A TRACE POSSIBLE

IT WILL BE WINDY OVER THE CREST…..QUITE BREEZY FOR JUNE LAKE. EXPECT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY PM…..THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT MONO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CAN EFFECT AREAS LIKE LEE VINING AND AT TIMES JUNE LAKE.

MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN IS CURRENTLY REPORTING A 13 TO 30 INCH BASE.

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS………………….:-)

STORM SYSTEM LEFT MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL IN MAMMOTH

THE PACIFIC STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN SIERRA BROUGHT THE FIRST GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL FOR THE TOWN OF MAMMOTH. AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES FELL AT THE VILLAGE AND UP TO A FOOT AT THE BASE LODGE WITH POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 18 INCHES OVER THE CREST AS MAMMOTH PASS REPORTED 1.67 INCHES. THIS IS ALL JUST IN TIME FOR THE OPENER ON THE 11TH. IT’S COLD NOW AND MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN WILL ADD TO THE BASE DAY AND NIGHT WITH MAN MADE SNOW.


TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY


LATEST 12Z GFS AND WRF ARE BRINGING IN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY. THE TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THAT JUST SHOWERS WILL FALL AS IT MOVES MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA. AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP THE SNOW GUNS HAPPY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BUMP UP INTO THE 40S TUESDAY….TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE IN THE 30S AGAIN MUCH LIKE TODAY WEDNESDAY.


THE REST OF THE WEAK AND BEYOND…………………


AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN SIERRA RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AT ABOUT 140 WEST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SSE OUT OF WESTERN CANADA TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

THIS IS A DRY PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL RISE TOWARD 50 BY THE WEEKEND.


THERE AFTER…..

THE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY MEAN HEIGHTS AT HT 500 SHOW THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINING BETWEEN 140 AND 135 EAST.

THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PATTERN DRY THROUGH MID MONTH. WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK INTO THE 50S NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER HIGH NUDGES A BIT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. AS LONG AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS WELL OFF SHORE AND THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTH NORTH WESTERLY…. “SEVERE” INVERSIONS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM FOR SNOW-MAKING. HOWEVER, SOME OF FANTASY OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS  ARE PROGRESSING THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH INTO THE WEST COAST  ABOUT THE 19TH/20TH.