Weather pattern will return to an active one for Mid Spring…with Wind….Rain/Snow and cooler weather……This pattern will likely continue into month’s end…..
Thursday April 21, 2016
Posted at 10:08 am by Howard
Today Madness is all about the upper low that may dig back into So-Cal for the weekend…..
The Dweebs need another day or even two to call it. An upper level low that digs back into Southern Ca would bring light snow to the high country and gusty NE winds over the weekend. But the Jury is still out on this one….
Monday AM Update:
Snow showers are expected today Monday with no measurable accumulation…. A short wave ridge will bring fair and warmer temps Tuesday…. Highs are expected in the upper 30s Monday and near 50 on Tuesday. Lows in the 20s
West Coast Adjustment wave axis in the mean is shifting slowly east over time. That means that although we may get a NW slider Wednesday and Thursday with periods and winds and snow/showers, the next system late in the weekend will drop south over the Great Basin. We can still get a few snow showers from that. However, most likely it looks like just some upslope cloudiness and wind Sunday and Monday.
In the meantime, the system and its impulses Wednesday and Thursday might bring some 4 to 7 inches over the upper elevations with 1 to 3 inches at the Village at Mammoth.
At the moment the fishing opener look fair for the Sunrise Event Saturday AM with light breezes. However, an inside slider Sunday will bring clouds and between light and moderate winds for the north through Long Valley.
In the longest range, there is the chance of a larger scale closed low effecting Southern and Central CA over the Mothers Day Weekend……………..
I will have a more detailed outlook on the fishing opener Wednesday Afternoon.
Dr. Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)
A more active pattern is being advertised by both Global Ensembles today in the short, medium and longer range. It is likely to begin this Friday as a vigorous cold front sweeps through the sierra Friday Night bringing mainly light to possibly moderate snowfall amounts above 9,000 feet. Another small system may bring snow showers Sunday night into early Monday and yet another system about next Wednesday followed by possibly another the following weekend.
Latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is now better handled by the two global models, the GFS and ECMWF. Looking at the Wednesday 12Z ECMWF and the 18Z GFS for the Sierra Crest near Mammoth Mt, it appears that “about” .4 to .7 inches of water EQ is reasonable as they both show pretty close to the same amount. Based on the above and about 10:1 ratio of snow to water at 10,000 feet….. Expect somewhere between 3 and 5 inches at the main lodge and 6 to 8 inches on the crest by Saturday mid-morning….
The snow level will begin about 9,000 and then lower to between the 6500 to 7000 foot level by late Friday night. A few inches of snowfall is possible off the roadways near the Village at Mammoth. Temperatures in the Town of Mammoth will cool from today’s mid 60s to the upper forties over the weekend in town. Moderate winds will come up out of the south over the crest Thursday afternoon then become stronger out of the west Friday and Friday night. Winds will be moderate again Saturday and diminish into the evening with lighter winds Sunday AM. Moderate winds will return Sunday PM into Monday over the crest.
Main Central Pacific Adjustment wave is located over the Aleutians with a secondary wave over California into the end of the month. The weakness in the mean may shift into the Western Great Basin over time. This will allow for small spring storms on and off for a week to ten days.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)
Windy NW Slider will Morph into an inside slider with secondary upper jet…It will be windy and cooler the next few days……Strong Ridging building in over the weekend will bring a return to above normal temperatures Sunday through Wednesday…….We’re not quite done with the wet season yet as longer range charts showing a system about the 22nd with the last week of April potentially going out like a lion……..Most importantly was Scripps Winter Forecast for a Record Smashing La Nina in 2017!!!
Thursday April 14, 2016
Posted at 9:18 am by Howard
The Dweebs took a look at both the 12z ECMWF and 18Z GFS Ensembles this afternoon. The EC is certainly wetter as it forms a Closed low near the Bay Area and Moves it through South Central CA. The GFS looks pretty Dry as the storm splits south down the coast to LA. The sierra is going to get some snow Friday and Friday night. The question is how much. A compromise is usually in order. At the moment if you add the 2 inches that the GFS has for us to the foot the EC has, you get about 4 to 7 inches by Saturday AM over Mammoth Mt…..Not in town.
This system is not going to be a plow for the TOML unless the European model wins out.. The Dweebs will update Wednesday unless the models come together sooner….
PS. There are more systems in back of the Friday System…..Monday and again Wednesday…..
Winds aloft continue to decrease as yesterdays upper jet makes its way east. The system is now effecting the Central Rockies and look to stall out as a cut off low. Height rises continue over CA and temperatures will move up quickly the next few days with mid 50s today and low 60s Sunday then mid to upper 60s on Monday. Full on spring weather at its finest will dominate the Eastern Sierra early next week…..
In the longer range…cooler weather will begin to occur after mid week as a series of storms make their way into California going into next weekend and possibly that following week 2….. These storms are likely to bring significant snowfall to the Central and Northern Sierra according to the 6 to 10 day outlooks….
PS: Did you know that for the most part, the current temperatures that are found online for Mammoth are really not in Mammoth? Same for many of the temperature forecasts for Mammoth. It is all based upon Mammoth Airport which is a good 1,000 feet below much of the Town of Mammoth. The Mammoth Ranger Station often times does not send in their reports timely, as they are sent in the day after; If you need to know actual temperatures in Mammoth Lakes you can get them at these links below and it is in real time! The Temperatures are courtesy of Mammothweather.com at the 8200 foot level; two blocks from the village…. (Bookmark Them)
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)
Here is the latest updated Forecast from Scripps put out on the 11th of April…. http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-04_for_2016-12.html
Here are important points to remember about La Nina;
- We are in the Spring Barrier period; The impact of that upon the eventual numbers can be significant. So the actual forecast number may change significantly by mid Summer.
- A major LA Nina is likely to have an effect upon global temperatures with some degree of cooling.
- A very strong La Nina probably means another dry year for Southern California next winter. But remember, there is no certainty’s in this Climatology, just bias. The Bias is for an overall drier than normal winter for division 6 in CA. IE South of San Luis Obispo.
- There is a bias out west for a colder than normal winter as well, especially in the pacific NW.
- Precipitation is not likely to be above normal for the Central and Southern Sierra.
- Moderate La Nina’s give the best odds for the most snowfall in a cold ENSO event here. However, there seem to be more drier winters than wet ones.
There are as important teleconnection’s that will be looked at in the Fall before the winter forecast is put out. They can enhance or diminish La Nina’s effect.
The key teleconnections will be the AO (Arctic Oscillation); The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation); The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), The AMO and QBO. A warm or cold Western Atlantic is an importation consideration to the progressiveness of the upper pattern. (IE the AMO) Once these factors are incorporated into mix, the winter weather forecast can be made.
Jan Null a CCM at Golden Gate Weather Services has done extensive research on ENSOs effect upon California Rainfall. Check out this link below and do some of your own…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)
Sunday Afternoon’s Analysis over CA showed weak cyclonic circulation over the interior of Southern CA with scattered mainly light shower action……Over developed conditions of extensive cloudiness over Southern Mono County leads to the unlikelihood of significant precip today unless we get some surface heating….
Sunday April 10, 2016
Posted at 1:53 pm by Howard
The main action this afternoon is confined to the more dynamic area of Arizona, that is just north of the upper jet crossing Baja along with the weakening cyclonic flow over interior Southern CA. There is strong upper divergence in that area. We are definitely into hybrid forecasting today with both dynamic forcing type conditions to the Southeast and strong daytime heating with increasing surface CAPE taking off over Northern CA. There is likely to be a lot of thunderstorms over those two areas this afternoon. Here in Southern Mono County outside of a few showers it does not look all that exciting for the rest of the day. No Deformation and no surface heating. About the only thing worth mentioning is that the Lifted’s are near 0 here and there is a small 850 convergence /250 divergence couplet showing up in the SPC over Northern Inyo County. So if the sun happens to come out long enough, we might get a shower or thunderstorm. There is certainly enough afternoon left for that…
The week ahead still looks cool and unsettled through Thursday with a rather windy short wave rolling in Wednesday afternoon with the upper jet translating east Thursday morning. The closed low idea from last week is off the table. It is expected to bring light amounts of snowfall. Possibly a few inches in town and 3 to 5 inches over the top of old woolly. Now for the big news…..The idea of a series of storms moving through California for the next few weeks is off the table now. We are in that time of the year when the longer range guidance is not worth the 1’s and 0s that pop into the programs that produce week two and inter-seasonally Week 3 forecasts. This is not to say that we are done for the year. However, we go into a weak split flow pattern with precipitation driven more by weak closed lows rather than transitory short wave that bring actual fronts to our area. Deformation, surface convergence/upper divergence couplets and CAPE will play a more important role in forecasting in the weeks ahead.
The following weekend looks fair at this time and warmer…
ENSO: You have to look at this!!! Could this be a whopper of a La Nina?
Check out the links below.
First look at CFSVS2 SST forecast for the Nino 3.4 region from the initial conditions between March 11th to the 20th: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd1/nino34Mon.gif
Then compare it to the latest forecast from the initial conditions March 31st to the 9th of April: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif
Good Golly Miss Molly! What happened!!!
Now Check out Scripps’ ENSO Forecast for next Winter!: http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/pictures.html