Upper trof lifting quickly NE today as Upper Ridge builds in….Quick warmup now into the weekend with low 80s expected in Mammoth Lakes…..Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model continues to back peddle on strength of La Nina for upcoming winter…..Peak of the Perseides Meteor Shower after midnight tonight…..

Sunday AM Update:

It was a warm one in Mammoth Saturday with a high temperature of 85 degrees. This Summer there has been more mid 80s then I can remember…..  One reason for this is that the AZ Monsoon has been pretty much absent this Summer. I have written about this several times in past discussion’s and so will not go into to it again.  Anomalous weather patterns are usually caused by the domino effect of larger scale occurrence’s.

Although it will be very warm through the middle of this week with more low to mid 80s in Mammoth, there are important changes this week that may lead to fire weather concerns for the next weekend. The eastern pacific high will retrograde and build out at 140W by Thursday. This pattern change will send short wave energy tumbling south along the west coast.  The latest GFS run and its ensembles develop an upper level low off the Central CA coast Thursday and drift it SE through the weekend. The pattern suggests strong upper divergence over the central then southern sierra. The upper low does develop moisture and PWAT with upper dynamics. This developing pattern will have to be watched for next weekend as far as lightning concerns in an extremely dry forest.


From Thursday:

Warmer temperature’s are on the way for Eastern CA as another warm ridge builds over the west coast.  High temperatures will climb to the lows 80s this weekend and remain there into next week.  Once again this is a dry pattern as the monsoon remains shut down until further notice.   Lows at night will be mostly in the 40s this weekend…  Winds will remain light. At this time, the outlook remains dry for the Eastern Sierra with little to no chance of the Monsoon developing….What may happen is that a Col may form off shore allowing some upper level divergence to develop the following week…We may get some showers that way…

Scripps continues to back peddle on the strong La Nina predicted earlier this year for the Winter of 2016/17.  This actually increases the chance for precipitation in the Southern CA area.  Stay tuned!

 

Tonight is the night and mainly after 1:00AM for the Enhanced Perseids meteor shower display. Go to bed early then get up at 2:00AM….. Constellation Perseids will rise in the East…. Moon sets just after 1:00AM…… Friday night is past peak but it may still be good….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

The break from record heat will continue into the new week with slightly below normal temps in the high country……Warmer weather is expected 2nd half of the new week…..Dry pattern to continue……Perseids flying high next week!

It’s been a little chilly at night as of late. Early morning lows have been in the low 40s in Mammoth and as chilly as 30 in the Bridgeport area. The extremely dry air combines with off shore troughing is likely to continue through mid week. This will include the usual zephyr afternoon and evening breezes.

Retrogression of the long wave features will occur 2nd half of this upcoming week. So above normal temperatures will redevelop by next weekend. (Normal highs now about 77) in Mammoth, this time of the year. Early morning lows average low to mid 40s.

 

Outlook:

Favored ECMWF:

Week 2:

Amplification of the long wave ridge is expected to near the dateline later this new week plus the continental high moving westward will bring the possibility for another siege of heat week 2.   However, there are significant difference between the EC ensembles and the control.  The control keeps the upper ridge position in the mean between north of Hawaii and the Dateline while the ensembles (5 day means) retrograde it slightly west of Kamchatka. Both models suggest a return to warmer than normal temps. However the ensembles suggest that the AZ Monsoon will return to SE California, Southern CA Deserts north to the Eastern Sierra during the 3rd week of August. (more on that later)

 

Perseids meteor shower:

Increasing nightly now with more meteors every night as we approach the maximum on the 11th/12th/ Best viewing after midnight!

REPRINT:

Perseids Meteor Shower:

Earth will pass through the path of Comet Swift-Tuttle from July 17 to Aug. 24, with the shower’s peak — when Earth passes through the densest, dustiest area — occurring on Aug. 12. That means you’ll see the most meteors in the shortest amount of time near that peak, but you can still catch some action from the famed meteor shower before or after that point.

The Perseid meteor shower will burst into light this August as Earth passes through the long trail left by Comet Swift-Tuttle — and this year, it’s slated to put on a spectacular show. Here’s how and when to see the Perseids.

According to NASA meteor expert Bill Cooke, the Perseids are perhaps the most popular meteor shower of the year. They will be in “outburst” in 2016, which means they’ll appear at double the usual rates.

“This year, instead of seeing about 80 Perseids per hour, the rate could top 150 and even approach 200 meteors per hour,” Cooke said. It’s the first such outburst since 2009.

Moon Setting times for best viewing: (best viewing after moon set)  The shower radiates from the NE.  (Best viewing after Midnight)

August 11th 12:30AM   (Near Peak)

August 12th 1:09AM  (Peak of Shower)

 

 

Cooling trend now in process with excessive heat spell now in the past…..Records broken, both for dates and consecutive days……With the passing of July, climatology indicates a gradual cool down for August……Perseids meteor shower will be the best in 7 years!

Thursday PM:

All areas should be pretty close to normal, temperature wise today…  The developing Trof  off shore has initiated a southerly flow aloft and so monsoon moisture has been tapped and streaming north. Some showers reported over mainly south central Mono County. Moisture will flush east tomorrow.

The temperature forecast for Mammoth is in the mid 70s this weekend during the day. Upper elevations of town will be in the low 70s. However, the upper trof will bring a lot of drying, so night time temperatures will drop dramatically. Lows in Mammoth will be mostly in the 40s this weekend before sunrise.

 

Monday Afternoon Update:

WOW  105 in Bishop as the official high!  That was not suppose to happen!

Model error…Human error?

The forecast is for 98 degrees tomorrow Tuesday.

Mammoth was 2 degrees warmer today with an 84 high.

We are still expecting a cool down with below normal temperatures going into and through the Blusapalooza weekend.   Heights will be anomalous low for this time of the year.  High temps may only be low to mid 70s through the weekend. However a lot of (breeze) may precede the weekend and accompany the weekend.  If you going to the Festival of Beers…bring a medium warm jacket for the evenings this weekend. The coolest day will be Sunday.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………

 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Lots to think about this morning…

  1. A new record of consecutive days recorded at the bishop airport of 105f or greater. (July 22nd – 29th) There were several days of 107 to 108)
  2. Record consecutive number of days of 85f or greater in Mammoth Lakes during the past 10 days
  3. ENSO
  4. Outlook
  5. Perseids Meteor shower (potentially best display in 7 years)

 

I. The heat wave just past was the result of a series of sequences that are both ongoing and have terminated;

  1. The PV that is usually found over the NH Pole during the summer has at times, split up into separate vortices’ at relatively lower latitude’s, however still mostly north of the Arctic Circle. Again worth noting, a few strong incursions to the south have occurred.  The westerlies over the Western Hemisphere along 50 north seem to have been more active this Summer probably due to the southerly displacement of the PV.  Its effects south along the west coast of the CONUS have brought “periods” of cool rainy or showery weather to part of the Pacific NW. South of the jet over CA, it has resulted in very dry weather. The anomalous dry West to SW flow has done much to keep our air mass drier than normal.  Deep Persistent trofing in the GOF has displaced eastward or squashed the subtropical continental high….creating a weaker Monsoon Season, both in the far southwest and Eastern CA. The dry air mass combined with mostly an east-west oriented continental high created the perfect storm (so to speak), for both extensive and excessive heat during the hottest time of the year.  That heat spell is now broken with a trend this new week toward more season temps, then….possibly cooler than normal temps late this new week and beyond.

II.  Scripps ENSO forecast for a strong La Nina seem to be at odds with the latest Climate Forecast System, as it is trending toward ENSO neutral after the first of next year. However, for the record, the forecast from June, from the  IRI Compilation of SST Forecasts for the Nino 3.4 Region is still averaging  (-1)..   It will be interesting to see what the July update shows….

1. The Dweebs personally like the idea of a weak La Nina as the odds are more favorable for significant Atmospheric River events forced by the MJO. 

 

III. Outlook (Weather)

  1. West coast trofing will return this new week with continued dry southwest flow. High temps will settle into the low 80s with an increase of the afternoon zephyr winds. Later in the week, the models show an interesting little feature. An extension of a trof that splits, closes off just west of the Bay Area then lifts through north-central CA. The closed circulation at 500mb suggests a period of upper divergence for at least the Northern Sierra. 700RH progs show that moisture is starved with this system, nevertheless,  there may be enough lift for some isolated convection and dry lightening over the northern sierra, going into next weekend.   For the Mammoth area, it just looks breezy and cooler for the Blusapalooza with highs in the mid to upper 70s with nighttime temperatures back down into the 40s toward sunrise.
  2. You folks in the Owens Valley will now have highs in the 100 to 103 range instead of 105 to 108!
  3. Daytime convection has ended for the Central Sierra

IV.  Perseids Meteor Shower:

1. Earth will pass through the path of Comet Swift-Tuttle from July 17 to Aug. 24, with the shower’s peak — when Earth passes through the densest, dustiest area — occurring on Aug. 12. That means you’ll see the most meteors in the shortest amount of time near that peak, but you can still catch some action from the famed meteor shower before or after that point.

The Perseid meteor shower will burst into light this August as Earth passes through the long trail left by Comet Swift-Tuttle — and this year, it’s slated to put on a spectacular show. Here’s how and when to see the Perseids.

According to NASA meteor expert Bill Cooke, the Perseids are perhaps the most popular meteor shower of the year. They will be in “outburst” in 2016, which means they’ll appear at double the usual rates.

“This year, instead of seeing about 80 Perseids per hour, the rate could top 150 and even approach 200 meteors per hour,” Cooke said. It’s the first such outburst since 2009.

Moon Setting times for best viewing: (best viewing after moon set)  The shower radiates from the NE.  (Best viewing after Midnight)

August 11th 12:30AM   (Near Peak)

August 12th 1:09AM  (Peak of Shower)