Stretch of very warm temperature’s to continue in the high country as an Continental Upper high builds over 4 corners area again….Upper high is split with weak Col over Central CA….Widely scattered thunderstorms possible mid week….
Sunday June 26, 2016
Posted at 11:00 pm by Howard
Wednesday Am Update:
Very heavy rains fell in Mammoth during the mid afternoon hours Tuesday. An estimated .5 to an inch fell in town, most of which occurred within 1/2 hours. Todays atmosphere is certainly more moist as compared to yesterday morning, however, we do not have the upper dynamics or focusing mechanism like yesterday.
So there is a chance of showers today and or thunderstorm, However, I do not expect a rain event like yesterday in Mammoth.
There is better focusing over the Owens Valley today and so there is a better chance of areas heavy rain within the shafts directly below any thunderstorms. Tomorrow will begin a drying process as weak troughing sets up over the pacific NW. It will be dry over the Owens Valley Thursday.
Your Fourth of July Weekend outlook including July Fourth Monday is for slightly cooler temperature’s and drier conditions with the usual afternoon and early evening Zephyr winds 15 to 25 MPH. Highs in Mammoth will be in the low 80 with nighttime lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
Monday Night Update:
The Dweebs can not remember a late Spring and Summer that has been so warm here in the Greater Eastern California area. It is been 9 days straight that the high temperature has hit at least 100 at the Bishop AP. Today’s high was 106 tying the record set in 2015. Tuesday’s record is 107 should Bishop tie it. The outlook increases the chance of some thunderstorms especially Wednesday, as an easterly wave moves out of AZ. Renewed weak troughing off the coast of the Pacific NW will flush moisture eastward again. The stretch of 100+ temperatures is expected to continue with little relief in sight for the Owens Valley.
A weak *Col will help to channel some high and mid level moisture into the Central Sierra Tuesday and Wednesday for a chance of thunderstorms over Mono County. There appears to be a weak disturbance coming out of AZ, helping to add instability to the mix. Best guess is that the Mono County convergence zone will set up where the Zephyr meets the southerly flow coming up the Owens Valley as well. Any rainfall accumulation will be light.
Toms Place and Sunny Slopes is best spot for Mono County Convergence Zone as well as the Glass Mts…Clouds will build over the Sierra then tend to shift east a bit as the Zephyr kicks in..
The area at the top of the grade is a naturel for Summertime Convergence thunderstorm’s.
Going into the weekend, we will probably get some cooling as a weak Trof moves into the Pacific Northwest. SW flow should flush any remaining moisture out of Mono County so the weekend will be dry. High temps the next few day will be in the Mid 80s then cool to the upper 70s by Saturday. Lows in the 40s and 50s.
One concern worth mentioning…. The lower levels are very dry and so any thunderstorms that do develop are likely to be high based with Strong Gusty out flow winds and some lighting……Not a good set up but one we would expect here in the high county in the Summer.
Lets hope the forest dodges a bullet from any lightning related to fires, from the short period of thunderstorm’s expected mid-week
* A Col is the point of relatively lowest pressure between two upper highs…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)
Summer Heat Over Eastern California to Continue with Dry Weather and Above to Much Above Normal Temps Through the Middle of Next Week….Southwest Monsoon has begun….But will take time backing up over the Eastern Sierra
Friday June 24, 2016
Posted at 7:33 am by Howard
The slight cooling has been welcomed here in Mammoth with highs now in the mid to upper 70s…..Purrr-fect! Checking on temps in the Bishop area, it hit 103 Thursday. So the string of 100+ degree days continue. It should be noted that if Bishop stays at or above the 100 degree mark the next couple of days…the string will likely continue through much of next week. The all time record of 100+ degree days in a row at the bishop airport was 17 day set in 1984. That string began June 26th and ended July 12th when Monsoon rains came to the eastern deserts of CA. This year it is likely to happen again that way….only this string has begun a lot earlier, and so the likelihood of it being broken is much higher as the Southwest monsoon does not reach the Central Sierra until sometime in July. If you want to keep track of the string of 100+ degree days in Bishop it began June 19th, 2016. It has been 5 days so far. Today the forecast is for a high of 101 and the same for Saturday. Sundays high will be a projected 104.
In Mammoth and June, highs will climb back to the mid 80s by early next week. The Dweebs do see the possibility of some air mass thunderstorm’s about the end of June or the first week of July. So far the pattern is not configuration to advect both strong dynamic and moisture. That may change in a week or two. So….. it may be that by July 4th, Mother Nature will have a few surprises of her own!
Summer shifts into high gear this week with highs in the low to mid 80s in Mammoth then mid to upper 70s 2nd half…..Last freeze of the cold season was last weekend….Feel free to plant…….
Sunday June 19, 2016
Posted at 9:26 pm by Howard
Tuesday 5:45PM Update:
The first day of Summer was quite the warm one with an even 80 here at the village at Mammoth and 105 in Bishop. Today Tuesday was a Redux with 80 again and again 105 in Bishop. An afternoon Mammoth zephyr picked up with gusts to 20 MPH……This took the edge off the warmth. We are now expecting at least some cooling through Thursday with highs down into the upper 70s the next few days here at the village. However, it may remain 80 and above over the lower elevations of town. The Mono Zephyr will pick up strength the next few days with Thursday being the most breezy. Wind’s in the 30mph to possibly approaching 40MPH is possible during the latter part of the afternoon Thursday. The NWS has hoisted Lake wind advisories for Mono County area lakes due to choppy conditions out on area lakes like. This is especially true for Crowley Lake. Get your fishing done early and be sure to be off area lakes before the afternoon as wind waves may be in the 1 to 3 foot range.
The weekend will warm again and the upper continental high rebuilding in back of the passing trof through the Pacific NW. Today’s 18Z 500MB GFS has heights north of 594dm, again by Monday and Tuesday..
Of course everyone is beginning to think how hot it is going to be during the weekend of July 4th. Lets say it will be warming up! Long range charts are hinting at possibly 90 degrees in Mammoth by the 6th or 7th. Of course this is a long way off, but interesting to watch. The heights are certainly high enough for the post July fourth heat that week. The only thing that would suppress that heat is if the monsoon kicked in early…… That is a good possibility as it will have been quite hot for quite a while over the desert southwest and SE flow is being hinted at….
This is what I will be focusing on in the coming weeks….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)
As the remains of the upper trof dissipate over the eastern pacific and the summer time continental high sets up, our early summer season weather shifts into high gear now with very warm days and cool nights……The configuration of the upper high does not lend itself to the migration of upper level impulse’s around the upper high from the south or SE as the flow is responding more from the WSW. This is due to a more stretched out version of the continental high west-east. This greatly diminishes the chance of thunderstorms this week until the weekend. This also means that we should have afternoon and early evening zephyrs through Monday with Tuesdays Zephyr weaker…..The afternoon zephyr may strengthen again later this week….
The Zephyr is the west wind that comes up in Mammoth in the afternoon into the evening hours….
Highs in Mammoth the next few days will be in the low to mid 80s then upper 70s into next weekend.
The Summer Solstice occurs at 3:34pm Monday PDT The full strawberry moon is the same day. Once in a 70 year event!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)