High Pressure Aloft is cranking tonight with heights of 597DM over NW Nevada…Rare Easterly flow has developed with isolated storms moving east to west……SE flow develops Thursday as airmass modifacation continues….Moderate Monsoonal flow develops w/Increasing dynamics for Scattered Thunderstorms Thursday and Friday….

Showers and thunderstorms have been mainly isolated the past few days. The Atmosphere has for the most part been capped, so showers are occurring later in the day.  Tomorrow Tuesday and Wednesday the upper high will reach its peak intensity over Northern CA and Nevada with resort levels reaching its highs of the Summer. The Ridge will also take on more of a NW/SE orientation. As the cap weakens Thursday and Friday, dynamics increase and Monsoonal moisture moves up from the south. At the moment, the best convection may be west over the coastal sections of CA and interior deserts Wednesday night. Furthermore, for Southern Mono County, Thursday afternoon and night seems to be the main stormy period with storms strengthening at night! Will fine tune Tomorrow.  For the Deserts of Inyo and Kern County, Wednesday night may have some mesoscale convective clusters along with flash flooding. Trans-desert travel in this area Wednesday night will be very risky!

 

For you folks in Southern CA, get ready for some real humidity as PWAT reaches between 1.5 and 2.00 in some areas….More later…

 

The Dweeber…………..:-)

Mid Summer has passed with August the last remaining month of “Meteorological Summer”…..

So far, as the Dweebs earlier forecasted, our summer has been pretty void of strong thunderstorms here in Mammoth Lakes. We have been for the most part, void of the wide spread heavy rains that give our area about an inch of precipitation during the Summer months. The idea was, back in May, that additional Trofing in the pacific NW would force the deeper moisture of the monsoon, further east and south. So far that has worked out. Most of the deeper moisture and dynamics has remained further east and south. Late July and Early August typically bring the best chances for wetting rains here in Mammoth Lakes.

High temperatures here at 8000 FT have reached well into the 80s with 87 our warmest day so far since the solstice.  Typically, our warmest day reaches 88 during the summer. So over all, not a hot summer here in the Eastern Sierra and certainly drier than normal.  We still have August to contend with and I do see a rather warm weekend coming up along with chances of some wetting rains developing next week.

It will be drier Wednesday and Thursday with seasonal temperatures today Wednesday with just some afternoon clouds. It will be warmer over the weekend with isolated TSRW’s     Next week…..A return of at least modified Monsoon and air-mass modification leading to some days of wetting rains…

Winter Guesses:  teleconnections…

The North Pacific is warmer than normal well up into the Bearing Sea and even that sea into the arctic to its north.  As a side note, I just got back from a trip to the NW passage and flew over the Mendenhall Glacier. Most of the Glaciers are in retreat in that area.  Many are disappearing pretty quickly according to the locals and experts I spoke with.

 

The forecast of ENSO is for neutral ENSO conditions moving back to weak La Nina conditions by January.  This argues for more AR events this winter as the correlation between weak El Ninos to weak La Ninas that favor more west coast AR’s.  The PDO is still in its Positive phase like last winter updated today for the month of June.  The QBO has dropped to weakly negative.  It is over do for a flip to negative. the Sun is heading toward its solar minimum.  All these indices are positive for at least a normal to above winter. However, it is still very early to be making winter predictions…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:-)

Aerial coverage of Thunderstorms will increase this weekend as a weak southerly flow brings an increase in high level moisture…Expect a drying trend early next week…Then more Thunder after mid-week…..

Towering cumulous developed mid to late morning over Mammoth Lakes as dew points increased. Thunderstorms developed later this afternoon mainly east of highway 395 with a particularly strong cell near Mono Lake at 6:00pm Thursday evening. Expect a repeat again Friday. High temps will continue in the low 80s then mid 80s Saturday.  As we go through the weekend the Continental four corners high builds westward, centered near the southern NV/Utah Border Saturday. Expect an increase in southerly flow Friday night into Saturday with some pockets of impulses kicking off a better chance of thunder storms Saturday afternoon and evening…This is true for Sunday as well.  Lows at night will be in the 50s

The outlook for the upcoming week shows an increase of westerly flow and drier air working back into Mono County Monday into Tuesday. That will put an end to the thunderstorm’s once again,. Early morning lows will move down into the upper 30s and 40s by Tuesday night.  Daytime highs will cool to the upper 70s.  By Mid Week, the upper high begins to build westward again with sensible warming into the 80s by Thursday. Monsoon moisture along with air mass modification is likely to occur again Thursday and Friday next week, for a return of thunder for Eastern CA.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..