Mammoth Mt Breaks All-Time 41 Record for snowfall at Patrol Site…..Ski Patrol indicates that at least 3 to 4 inches has fallen over night to cross that 2.5 remaining inch record……Still well over a foot needed for 600 inch mark…

Mammoth Mt Breaks All-Time 41 Record for snowfall at Patrol Site…..Ski Patrol indicated to the Dweebs by phone this AM,  that at least 3 to 4 inches has fallen overnight to cross that 2.5 remaining inch record……there is still well over a foot needed for the 600 inch mark… The Dweebs imagine that there will be Official announcements coming from Mammoth Mt this weekend.

Discussion:

Hanford and Bay area radar shows precipitation from the coast all the way to the crest this morning with some pretty good returns west of Big Pine on the west side of the crest and another area near Monterrey Bay. Returns are off-shore as well. WRF has about an inch of QPF near the Yosemite area by Sunday morning and so about a foot is possible near the crest and up to 7 inches on the Patrol site. This should push snowfall totals over 580 inches on the patrol site for the first time in over 40 years. Again using the patrol site, it is unlikely that we will get to 600 inches this month. However, very likely that the 600 inch mark will be broken by the end of April, based upon Climo.

Summery:

The main energy with this system is lifting off to the northeast this afternoon living a dissipating cold front across Central Ca. So mainly light snowfall is expected for the residential areas of Mammoth today, and somewhat heavier and orographically enhanced snowfall for the upper elevations on Mammoth Mt. 

The next storm will shift even further to the north Sunday.  So just some snow showers in town with upwards to an inch over the crest possible Sunday/ngt.

The storm track will continue to shift further to the north next week…..so that by Wednesday, we will be under a long wave ridge with above normal temps.  Long range models show the pattern progressive, and so we may have another system to deal with by the next weekend.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………:-)




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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Mammoth Mountain 3 inches from all time record….Patrol says 576 inches on plot!

Total on plot according to Patrol 576 inches……

Get ready to celebrate a record breaking winter! Mammoth Mountain is inches away from pushing past 578.5 inches. Just three more inches and we will be there!

Forecast……another 6 to 12 inches up on Mammoth Mountain between two storms Saturday/ngt and Sunday/Ngt

600 inches before April 1st? Probably not, as we need about another 2 feet. However, by May 1st a good gamble!

For those that live in Mammoth….you are living through an epic winter!


Forecast:

Expect snow showers today with the possibility of an inch or two over the crest by tonight. Highs in the low 30s lows in the teens.

The next two storms are quick northwest sliders…… This is a 6 feet of wind and 3 to 6 inches of snow forcast for the town.  Storms are tracking mainly to our north.


So unsettled wx through the weekend then we ridge up about mid week!  Will the ridge be dirty or will it be clear. Will it be breezy or calm.

What’s garenteed???   Warmer temps for sure!


Stay Tuned!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)





————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Last in the series of powerhouse systems to move into the Sierra this afternoon followed by a moderate system Saturday PM and a small system Sunday PM…..pattern to become dryer next week and warmer into April

It continues to appear that we will break a 40+ year record for snowfall by weeks end as the last three storms of March dump more snow upon Mammoth Mt.  By mid week…..April certainly looks much kinder with some very nice periods of warn weather expected!

As of this morning, Mammoth Mt reported 555.5 inches of snow this season. The prospects for another 4 to 5 feet by Sunday night look pretty good at this point. So the possibility of hitting 600 inches is still in the cards! For the record, we have never had a 600 inch snow year on Mammoth Mountain. Earlier reports were revised downward. Unfortunately, records were not kept for the great winters of 1969 or the fab year of 1952.

The difference between this storm and the one over the weekend is that the weekend storm had little in the way of orographics, this one has plenty. However, what the weekend storm lacked in orographics because of southerly flow, it made up in moisture and UVM.  Records show that 5 to 8 feet dumped upon Mammoth Mt. last weekend. And…..another between 2 and 3 feet fell yesterday! 

Discussion:

New 12z WRF keeps the upper jet over Central Ca through the weekend, currently west to east with 110knot nose at 300mb pointed at Mammoth/ 18z today. Thus good orographics are expected with the next two storms. Today’s storm has been strengthening the past 6 to 8 hours with an active band of precipitation within the front now approaching the Bay area.  Latest wave loop at 1600z shows a compact convective cold pool with open cellular Cu west of the Northern Ca coast at about 124west 41north. A nice jet streak stretches from beneath the upper center approaching the Monterrey Bay. This feature will be enhancing snowfall rates later today and tonight. Strong low level winds at 925MB are progged to reach 35 to 45 knots causing orographic lift, forcing”Very Heavy” snowfall rates between 5:00pm this afternoon and 11:00pm tonight. Snow fall rates should diminish rapidly after 10z Friday….post frontal.

Looks like 3 to 4 feet over Mammoth Mt and about 2 feet in town by 12:00 noon Friday. Saturday/Ngts storm is a quick mover and a bit dryer. At the moment…..3 to 6 inches is expected in town and 6 to 12 up on the hill at this time. Then there is one last system just showing up in the models now for Sunday PM.

The new 12z Thursday GFS has a windy showery northwest slider Sunday afternoon/ngt. I do not expect a lot of snow from that system, but certainly, there is a possibility of 1-3 inches of powder in town and 3 to 6 over the crest by Early Monday am.  It looks like a cold….windy….showery system that will be out of here by Monday. Thereafter, we ridge up pretty quickly into mid week for some fab WX!


Outlook:

A strengthing MJO in the Maritime’s is developing rapidly. However, given its location, it will most likely ridge us up for a while giving us a nice break the second half of next week with some warm weather! This is based upon MJO US composites for both Precip and Temps climatically adjusted for this time of the year, and most of all, the MJOs location in phases 4/5.


What the global models show, is initially a dryer-breezy NW flow pattern early next week, then ridging by the middle of next week. (April Fools?)……………………………………………:-) 



The Dweeber



————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.