Getting Down To Business

GETTING DOWN TO BUSINESS……

ALL THE GUIDANCE REMAINS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT RUNS….HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS A BIT COLDER WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS.

RECAP:

SO…AGAIN WE HAVE TWO SYSTEMS. THE FIRST PRIMING THE PUMP SO TO SPEAK WITH THE SECOND BRINGING MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL TO THE CREST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTIONS OF MAMMOTH. THE UPPER TROF IS NICE AND DI-FLUENT SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE NOSE OF A 110KNOT JET BRING GOOD DIVERGENCE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS THE LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE.1000MB/500 THICKNESS WILL LOWER FROM 558DM AT 00Z MONDAY TO 546DM BY 06Z ACCORDING TO THE WRF/NGM 12Z RUN THIS AM. 700MB TEMPS GO FROM JUST SHY OF 0C AT 00Z, TO -7.5C BY 06Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL PROBABLY FALL DOWN TO THE 6000 FOOT RANGE BY SUNRISE, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE BY THEN. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ABOVE 7500 FEET.


NEW RFC DERIVED QPF DATA THIS AM PAINTS ABOUT .8 OVER THE YOSEMITE AREA AND ABOUT THE SAME NEAR HUNTINGTON LAKE. THE NAM/WRF HAS SIMILAR AMOUNTS. LOCAL OROGRAPHICS COULD EASILY PUSH AMOUNTS UP TO AND OVER AN INCH OVER THE CREST WHILE AMOUNTS IN TOWN ABOUT HALF. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 8800 FEET AND SO SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 7000 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 7500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT.

EITHER WAY…THIS WILL BE THE FIRST GOOD SNOWFALL FOR THE TOWNS OF MAMMOTH AND JUNE WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. UP TO A FOOT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN.

OUTLOOK:

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WAS HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE DWEEBS THIS MORNING.

THE TWO MAJOR GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEMS THE GFS, GFSE AND THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A NORTH-WEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEK, WHERE BY SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS WITH THE ECMWF WHICH HAD A MAJOR TROF FOR THE MAMMOTH AREA NEXT FRIDAY, NOW JUST BRINGS IN A NW SLIDER. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS PATTERN.

SO IN ESSENCE THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME OVER TO MORE OF THE GFS (AMERICAN MODEL) THINKING FOR LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

WILL THE ECMWF FLIP BACK TO ITS EARLIER THINKING?

ADDITIONALLY…..THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE WEATHER FOR MAMMOTH NEXT WEEK WILL BE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL LOWER DOWN INTO THE 40S ALONG WITH COLD NIGHTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THE CLIMO FOR MAMMOTH THIS TIME FOR THE YEAR IS A DAYTIME HIGH OF 50.

IE: GREAT SNOW MAKING WEATHER!!

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS…………………:-)

Heat wave for two more days

POSITIVE PNA PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE TIME BEING….RIDGE OVER THE WEST TO TAKE PUNCH OUT OF SYSTEMS, SPLITTING THEM OR PUSHING THEM TO OUR NORTH.

CURRENT HEAT WAVE TO LAST ANOTHER 2 DAYS….TEMPS TO RETURN SEASONABLE BY SATURDAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND……A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS VERY POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

MUCH BETTER SNOW MAKING CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

LONGER RANGE:

GOOD NEWS……

WHEELER-HEDON DYNAMICAL MODEL MJO FORECASTS PHASE SPACE SHOWS BOTH UKME AND GFS ENSEMBLES INCURSION INTO PHASE 7 OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. EL NINO LIKE FOR AN INCREASE OF AAM.

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA BECOMES NEGATIVE BY MID MONTH ACCORDING TO THE GFSE

THE DWEEBER….





Recap and the winter outlook

A RECAP OF THE SUMMER AND A FIRST LOOK AT THE FALL-WINTER OF 2011:

LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EQUATORIAL EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC.

IT HAS BEEN A COLDER THAN NORMAL SUMMER FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF CALIFORNIA STRICTLY BECAUSE OF THE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE PERSISTENT TROFING OFF SHORE PUSHING THE AIR INLAND OVER THE COLDER WATER.

BASED UPON PAST MODERATE LA NINAS…..THE DWEEBS BELIEVE OUR UPCOMING WINTER WILL BE AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD ONE FOR THE PAC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN WITH MAMMOTH ON THE BORDER OF THAT. OVERALL THE ODDS FAVOR NORMAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (80% TO 120%) OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAMMOTH AREA AND A MUCH MUCH DRIER THEN NORMAL WINTER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

LA NINA WINTERS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR PRODUCING EARLY SEASON TEASER SHOWERY TYPE STORMS THAT DROP OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH PERIODS OF WARMER THEN NORMAL TEMPS WITHIN THE SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER TIME FRAME. THEN SOME REALLY COLD OUTBREAKS IN LATE NOVEMBER, DECEMBER AND JANUARY. LA NINA WINTER’S OFTEN TIMES END EARLIER…..WITH AN EARLIER SPRING. THEN UNLIKE EL NINO WINTERS……SUMMER WEATHER OFTEN TIMES ARRIVES SOONER AS WELL BECOMING VERY HOT IN CALIFORNIA DURING JULY AND AUGUST WITH A LOT OF THUNDER IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

THE MJO SHOULD BE A MAJOR PLAYER LATER IN THE YEAR AND INTO THE NEXT INITIATING AMPLIFICATION THEN POSSIBLE UNDER UNDERCUTTING OF THE WESTERLIES THIS WINTER.
NH BLOCKING WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PATTERNS WITH ATTENTION TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND STRONG BLOCKING OVER AK. LETS HOPE THAT THE HUDSON BAY FEATURE IS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE THIS WINTER! WE NEED A NEGATIVE PHASE QBO) IE. HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER HUDSON BAY FOR THIS REASON.

AGAIN….A MODERATE/STRONG LA NINA’S FALL IS USUALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AN EARLY SNOW STORM (SINGULARITY TYPE), THAT CAN OCCUR ANYTIME FROM MID SEPTEMBER THROUGH OCTOBER HERE IN MAMMOTH, FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY COLD UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPING IN NOVEMBER. SO TYPICALLY, WINTERS TEND TO BE “LATE HERE IN CENTRAL CA”, DURING LA NINA FALLS AND WINTERS.

THE WINTER OF 1973/74 WAS A STRONG LA NINA THAT WAS AN EXCEPTION….WHICH STARTED IN THE FALL AND CONTINUED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE SPRING.

ADDITIONALLY, THIS “MAY BE” THE WINTER OF THE PINEAPPLE CONNECTION FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA, AS THAT WEATHER TYPE IS OFTEN INITIATED BY (MJO). THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED MORE WITH LA NINA WINTERS RATHER THEN EL NINO. DURING LA NINA WINTERS, WE OFTEN TIMES GET OUR SNOWFALL, MORE DURING SHORT PERIOD HIGH INTENSITY EVENTS RATHER THAN A LONGER PROTRACTED SERIES OF STORMS THAT COME ONE AFTER ANOTHER THROUGH OUT THE WINTER. IN OTHER WORDS THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE THAT THERE MAY BE BIG LONG BREAKS BETWEEN STORMY PATTERNS FOR THE UP COMING WINTER.

AS ANOTHER NOTE, THE STRONGER THE LA NINA, THE GREATER THE CHANCE THAT SOUTHERN CA WILL HAVE A DRIER THEN NORMAL WINTER. THIS LA NINA IS ALREADY IN A MODERATE STAGE. I EXPECT SOME PRETTY STRONG SANTA ANNA WINDS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE FALL! FOR SOUTH LAND FOLKS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS….MAKE SURE YOUR FIRE INSURANCE IS CURRENT!

MORE LATER

THE DWEEBER