Wet system inbound

WET SYSTEM HEADED FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY….

THE DWEEBS LIKE THE EUROPEAN MODEL THE BEST IN THE CURRENT PATTERN AS LAST NIGHTS OPERATIONAL MODEL CONTINUES THE TREND WITH GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT….

CURRENTLY….A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE NORTH OF HAWAII IS FORECASTED TO MOVE EAST, INITIATING PRECIP FOR NORTHERN CA EARLY SATURDAY AM WITH A WAVE TRAIN OF WET SYSTEMS BACKED UP TO THE WESTERN PACIFIC. TPW/S ARE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL BAND ABOUT 1000 WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH IS EXPECTED INTO NORTHERN CA SATURDAY MORNING…

MORE IMPORTANTLY….THE MAIN SHOT OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA SUN AND EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS AND WITH RAINS IN THE MAMMOTH AREA WELL OVER AN INCH BY SUNDAY PM. SIERRA CREST QPF ACCORDING TO THE EC IS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE NEAR YOSEMITE AND THE MAMMOTH CREST. SNOW LEVELS TO RISE WELL ABOVE 10,000 SUNDAY. THE UPPER JET WITH THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL CA. THE UPPER JET WILL TREND NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK THEN SAG SOUTH AGAIN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK:

THERE MAY BE ANOTHER STORM BEFORE ALL HALLOWS EVE AS THE EC AND GFS BOTH SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING.

THE GOOD NEWS….IS THAT SO FAR…THE NAO IS BEHAVING ITSELF AND SO THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE WITHOUT ANY DOWN STREAM BLOCKING.

MORE LATER……

The cake is still in the oven

FEW SHOWERS HERE OR THERE TODAY….NOT MUCH GOING ON UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY……WET SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME HEADED INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SIERRA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY…….MOISTURE IS FROM TYPHOON MEGI (SEE EARLIER DISCUSSION)….GFS IS DRYER….SO JURY NOT COMPLETELY IN YET…. ECMWF PAINTS 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER YOSEMITE BY MONDAY….WITH SNOW LEVELS QUITE HIGH. COOLER AIR FOLLOWING SO A GOOD FROST LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CPC….STRONGEST LA NINA SINCE 1949

THE STRONGER THE LA NINA THE GREATER THE ODDS FOR DRYER THEN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA……MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE/SUBTROPICAL FEEDS WILL BE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST THIS WINTER. THE DWEEBS ALSO “VERY CONCERNED” ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR DRIER THEN NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3S OF CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SIERRA. STILL AT THIS POINT…..THE CAKE IS STILL IN THE OVEN BAKING……..WILL SEE HOW EVERYTHING IS SHAPED UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER.

System will be unimpressive in Mammoth

ONLY CHANGE IN PATTERN IS TO PUSH WET JET INTO NORTHWEST LATER SATURDAY.
THERE COULD BE STRONG DOWN SLOPE WINDS FOR MAMMOTH SUNDAY….SYSTEM FOR MAMMOTH PRECIP WISE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY SHOWERS POSSIBLE IF THAT. LOOKS LIKE WHISTLER, CANADA….COULD GET SEASON GOING WITH SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM…..MODERATE SANTANA POSSIBLE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR LA.