Blue bird on Friday

BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS BEGINNING TO PROGRESS EAST AS A SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA PICKS UP THE CUTOFF LOW, NOW OVER PA…..THEN LIFTS IT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WAVE LENGTH, UP-STREAM TO OPEN UP AND ALLOW THE CENTRAL CA CUT OFF TO LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL SIERRA EARLY THURSDAY AM. EXPECT A DAY TODAY SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDER, WITH A SNOW LEVEL ABOUT 8K. ONCE THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE THIS AFTERNOON….UVM WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IN TOWN LATER TODAY AND PICK UP TONIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. THE COLD POOL MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE SIERRA THURSDAY AM. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE VILLAGE AT MAMMOTH PICKED UP 2 TO 3+ INCHES OF SNOW BY MID THURSDAY AM.

RIDGING MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. A BLUE BIRD MORNING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY…THAT IS FOR THE BLUE BIRDS THAT ARE STILL IN TOWN. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE MOMENT….THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH OF MAMMOTH. ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES THIS AM….500HT HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100DM ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY PM, SO WE’LL GET SOME WIND AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING BY TUESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH IN THE SYSTEMS WAKE TUESDAY AM WILL CHURN UP A NE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES AND SIERRA CREST, SO ALTHOUGH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE BACK ABOVE 582DM BY WEDNESDAY…THE WARMING MAY NOT BE SO QUICK THROUGH MID WEEK FOR MAMMOTH. HOWEVER…IT WILL CERTAINLY BE WARMER AT THE COAST! OVERALL…NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. CLIMO NOW FOR MAMMOTH IS 63 AND 31.

WESTERN HEMI:
THE MAIN KEY ANCHORING UPPER HEIGHT ANOMALY IS SOMEWHAT WEST OF THE DATELINE NEAR THE POSITIVE SSTA POOL, WITH THE LONG WAVE TROF NORTH OF HAWAII AND THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER HIGH ABOUT THE GREAT BASIN.

INDIAN SUMMER BEGINS THIS WEEKEND!

Storm report

SHOWERS AND THUNDER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY…BUT FOCUSED MORE OVER NORTHERN MONO TODAY….

STORM TOTALS:

8:15AM STORM TOTALS AT 8200 JUST WEST OF THE VILLAGE AT MAMMOTH

.18 SINCE 12:00AM
.51 24 HOUR TOTAL
.97 STORM TOTAL
1.00 SINCE OCTOBER 1ST

DISCUSSION: 8:30AM TUESDAY

A NORTH SOUTH ELONGATED UPPER CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS CURRENTLY ROTATING A PRETTY STRONG VORT CENTER CLEARLY SEEN ON THE WAVE LOOP OVER THE MAMMOTH AREA. THE MAIN LIFT WITH THIS VORT CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHERN MONO COUNTY WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDER STORMS ARE OCCURRING. SO AT THIS TIME, MOST OF IT WILL EXIST ON A LINE TODAY FROM NORTHERN MONO COUNTY SOUTH TO PT CONCEPTION. NEVERTHELESS SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS STILL POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH A LESSER CHANCE THEN THE NORTH.

AGAIN….

THE WAY THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW IS OCCURRING. THE EXACT LOCATION AND SHAPE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND PRECIP WITH BE. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE MAMMOTH AREA, MORE OVER FROM BRIDGEPORT TO THE ALPINE COUNTY BORDER. SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE TODAY IN THE MONO COUNTY AREA BUT THE NORTH IS FAVORED. SNOW WILL FALL ABOVE 8000 FEET TODAY WITH IT STICKING ABOVE 8K TO 8.5K. THEN….AS THE COLD CORE LIFTS NORTH EAST OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY/NIGHT, THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER A BIT TO 7500 FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF A DUSTING FOR THE TOWN OF MAMMOTH.

CRFC 24HR QPF FOR THE AREA NEAR YOSEMITE IS ABOUT 3/4 OF AN INCH OF H20 EQ THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AM. THEN ANOTHER .6 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY AM. WE WILL PROBABLY GET AN EXTRA SHOT WHEN THE UPPER CENTER STARTS TO MOVE TO THE NORTH EAST INTO THE SIERRA ITSELF WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

BY FRIDAY…ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER CUT OFF WILL BE NORTH EAST OF THE MAMMOTH AREA AS THE CURRENT BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AND THE UPPER CUTOFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFT EAST THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NEW ENGLAND AREA BY THURSDAY AM. THERE AFTER…THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COLLAPSES AND REDEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WEST…….HENCE AN INDIAN SUMMER WEEKEND FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S!

LONG RANGE:

AT THE MOMENT…..THE LONG WAVE RIDGE SEEMS TO BE FIXED OVER THE DATELINE AND LW TROF ABOUT 140W…WITH NEXT POSITIVE ANOMALY ABOUT 130W. A PRETTY STRONG UPPER JET WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH AS THE EASTERN PAC POSITIVE ANOMALY IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT MORE OVER CA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY, THE RIDGE EFFECTING CA IS NOT A STRONG ONE AND MAY END UP BEING A BIT ON THE DIRTY SIDE. 6 TO 10 DAY HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 580 OVER MAMMOTH AND SO TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL…..SAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE 8 TO 14 DAY HAS THE LONG WAVE MORE OF CA AND SO 500HT MEANS MAY IN FACT OFFER BETTER WEATHER FOR THE FAR WEST WITH THE STORM TRACK EVER FURTHER TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE END NEXT WEEK. THE LATTER PART OF THIS LONG RANGE FORECAST IS DEFINITELY SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THERE IS A STRENGTHENING MJO CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN THAT “MAY” CHANGE OUR PATTERN DURING WEEK 2.

MJO:

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS CONTINUING TO FORECAST A STRENGTHENING MJO PROPAGATING INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC THE NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS VERY LOW ON THIS, LEADING TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ITS FORECAST. THE FORECAST INCLUDES INCREASED TROPICAL RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WHICH OFTEN TIMES WILL MODULATE THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.

STAY TUNED TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE WESTERLIES NEXT WEEK. THE DWEEBS WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE GFS FANTASY CHARTS EITHER LATER THIS WEEK OR NEXT.

WHAT I WOULD EXPECT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THE STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERLIES, FOLLOWED BY A BIG JUMP IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH, FOLLOWING BY THE POSSIBILITY OF UNDER CUTTING OF THE WESTERLIES AT SOME POINT. STAY TUNED…….

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS………………..:-)

Rain and the outlook

FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HOISTED BY NWS….

NICE RAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IN MAMMOTH…..AS OF 7:10M .45 OF AN INCH SINCE 12:00AM AND STILL RAINING….TEMPERATURE AT 41F AT 8200, SO DEFINITELY SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND ON OL” WO0LLY…POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 9500′.

SOME THINGS TO THINK ABOUT THIS MORNING…..

1. THE LATEST “ALL SEASON REAL-TIME MULTI-VARIATE MJO INDEX” IS SHOWING A NEW MJO DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN THIS MORNING. THE NCPE “NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION-ENSEMBLES GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM” IS QUITE BULLISH WITH THIS MJO OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS, MOVING WELL INTO PHASE 6 FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION PHASE 3. THE CANADIAN AND UNITED KINGDOM ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE THIS TROPICAL FORCING SYSTEM STRONG AS WELL FOLLOWING SUITE. AS A RESULT, THE DWEEBS EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC THE NEXT TWO WEEKS AS THE CURRENT MJO MODULATES THE WESTERLIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROPICAL FORCING PHENOMENON.

2. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WARM WATER POOL IS NOW SET UP OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR 165E…..ABOUT 25 DEGREES WEST OF WHERE IT WAS IN EARLY SEPTEMBER PRIOR TO THE CALIFORNIA HEAT WAVE FORECAST OF SOME TWO WEEKS PRIOR. I HAVE TO SAY, WITH THE WARM POOL SO FAR TO THE WEST…..NOT TOO SURE HOW THE WAVE PATTERN WILL SET UP DOWN STREAM. MAYBE THE ENSEMBLES WILL SHED SOME LIGHT ON IT WITHIN WEEK ONE.

CURRENT SYSTEM:

AS PER WRF 12Z MONDAY

NEW COOL TROF APPROACHING THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY BEGUN RIPPING AND TEARING….THE SPLITTING PROCESS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 110KNOT UPPER JET ON ITS BACKSIDE. A CLOSED CENTER WILL FORM TONIGHT AS PER WRF, SE OF THE BAY AREA AND OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WHERE IT WILL THEN REMAIN PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY FOR 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE WRF WOBBLES THE CENTER JUST OFF SHORE SOUTH OF MONTEREY BAY…OFF THE CENTRAL COAST. IF THIS VERIFIES…MAMMOTH HAS GOT TO BE IN A CHERRY POSITION WITHIN THE DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW. THE BEST DEFORMATION AXIS IS OVER MONO COUNTY AND WILL SORT OF PIVOT ON AN AXIS, AS THE SYSTEMS WOBBLES ABOUT. THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS IS ABOUT 552DM SO SNOW LEVELS ABOUT 8K BEGINNING TUESDAY AM……THEN DOWN TO 7K BY WEDNESDAY AM. OF COURSE THE DWEEBS HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE MODEL THIS AM, AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS MAY BE DIFFERENT. THE LATEST QPF FROM HPC IS FOR A 3.00 BULLS-EYE OVER MAMMOTH BETWEEN 5:00AM MONDAY AND 5:00AM SATURDAY. MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL FALL BY THURSDAY AM.