Winter Weather Advisories Hoisted for this Afternoon

THE COLDER TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SOMEWHAT HIGHER SNOW TO WATER RATIOS….

15 TO 20 INCHES EXPECTED OVER THE CREST NOW WITH
5 TO 10 INCHES AT THE VILLAGE BY MORNING…..
4 INCHES ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED DOWN TO 6000 FEET BY MID TO LATE EVENING

EXPECT CLOSURES TO TIOGA AND SONORA PASSES BY TONIGHT.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO 7500 FEET BY 4:00PM  THIS AFTERNOON.

TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR TONIGHT.

THE DWEEBER…………..:-)

Up to 15 inches possible over the upper mountain by Monday AM

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE QPF FROM RFC WHICH HAS CLOSE TO 1.5 INCH ISO-PLEATS OVER HUNTINGTON LAKE TO YOSEMITE  WITH THE SUNDAY/NIGHT/MONDAY AM STORM.

SO UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY  MORNING.   THE STORM HAS A PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE TAP WITH AMSU SAT LOOP SHOWING 1.5 INCH PWA  DRAWING UP INTO THE LOW.   THE SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY 140 KNOT UPPER JET AND SO GOOD STRONG UVM IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS STILL AN NORTHWEST SLIDER EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AM. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY FOR SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL STILL BY IN THE 40S.


DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS…………………….:-)



Getting Down To Business

GETTING DOWN TO BUSINESS……

ALL THE GUIDANCE REMAINS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT RUNS….HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS A BIT COLDER WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS.

RECAP:

SO…AGAIN WE HAVE TWO SYSTEMS. THE FIRST PRIMING THE PUMP SO TO SPEAK WITH THE SECOND BRINGING MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL TO THE CREST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTIONS OF MAMMOTH. THE UPPER TROF IS NICE AND DI-FLUENT SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE NOSE OF A 110KNOT JET BRING GOOD DIVERGENCE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS THE LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE.1000MB/500 THICKNESS WILL LOWER FROM 558DM AT 00Z MONDAY TO 546DM BY 06Z ACCORDING TO THE WRF/NGM 12Z RUN THIS AM. 700MB TEMPS GO FROM JUST SHY OF 0C AT 00Z, TO -7.5C BY 06Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL PROBABLY FALL DOWN TO THE 6000 FOOT RANGE BY SUNRISE, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE BY THEN. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ABOVE 7500 FEET.


NEW RFC DERIVED QPF DATA THIS AM PAINTS ABOUT .8 OVER THE YOSEMITE AREA AND ABOUT THE SAME NEAR HUNTINGTON LAKE. THE NAM/WRF HAS SIMILAR AMOUNTS. LOCAL OROGRAPHICS COULD EASILY PUSH AMOUNTS UP TO AND OVER AN INCH OVER THE CREST WHILE AMOUNTS IN TOWN ABOUT HALF. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 8800 FEET AND SO SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 7000 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 7500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT.

EITHER WAY…THIS WILL BE THE FIRST GOOD SNOWFALL FOR THE TOWNS OF MAMMOTH AND JUNE WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. UP TO A FOOT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN.

OUTLOOK:

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WAS HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE DWEEBS THIS MORNING.

THE TWO MAJOR GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEMS THE GFS, GFSE AND THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A NORTH-WEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEK, WHERE BY SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS WITH THE ECMWF WHICH HAD A MAJOR TROF FOR THE MAMMOTH AREA NEXT FRIDAY, NOW JUST BRINGS IN A NW SLIDER. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS PATTERN.

SO IN ESSENCE THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME OVER TO MORE OF THE GFS (AMERICAN MODEL) THINKING FOR LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

WILL THE ECMWF FLIP BACK TO ITS EARLIER THINKING?

ADDITIONALLY…..THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE WEATHER FOR MAMMOTH NEXT WEEK WILL BE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL LOWER DOWN INTO THE 40S ALONG WITH COLD NIGHTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THE CLIMO FOR MAMMOTH THIS TIME FOR THE YEAR IS A DAYTIME HIGH OF 50.

IE: GREAT SNOW MAKING WEATHER!!

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS…………………:-)