Storm System slowing this evening as it begins to stretch and split a bit……Snowfall to be delayed until late morning or mid-day at the latest…..
Saturday November 14, 2015
Posted at 11:17 pm by Howard
There was some media Hype today in the news about the Godzilla El Nino. Although it is true that in the part of the NINO BASIN…. Nino 3 and Nino 3.4, the SSTA has reach +3.0C. However, it has only been there for a week. Now looking at the recharge from the past Kelvin Wave at 150M below the surface, the budge of warm water is fat and sassy! Odds are, that the Nino Basin in this area will most likely maintain that kind of heat at the surface or even get slightly warmer the next few weeks.
Remember that model from NASA actually did forecast the +3.0C temperature anomaly for November, which a lot of science folks Poo Pooed and for good reason. Because of its rarity. But it is here now! It will be interesting to see how long this can keep up in this area. Will it be a few weeks, a month or ??
Warm Enso Conditions and Teleconnections:
One of the Signature teleconnections and an El Nino Event is the -(TNH) Teleconnection Pattern:
The negative phase of the TNH pattern is often observed during December and January when Pacific warm (ENSO) episode conditions are present. One example of this is the 1994/95 winter season, when mature pacific warm episode conditions and a strong negative phase of the TNH pattern were present. During this period, the mean Hudson Bay trough was much weaker than normal and shifted northeastward toward the Labrador Sea. Additionally, the Pacific jet stream was much stronger than normal and shifted southward to central California, well south of its climatological mean position in the Pacific Northwest. This flow pattern brought well above-normal temperatures to eastern North America and above-normal rainfall to the southwestern United States.
Cold with Mcflurry-upslope 😉
130knot….. north/south orientated upper jet over the top of us…..translating east…. It is Windy today over the upper elevations and there is a wind chill factor for skiers and boarders…. Highs today in the teens on the mountain……Upper 20s in town.
Expect less upper level wind tomorrow and much less on Wednesday. Lows at night are in the teens but will climb to the 20s by mid-week. Expect temps to become inverted again by mid week..
After today it will be a dry week with temperatures at resort levels returning to the 50s by Wednesday or Thursday.
The next possible stormy period will be next week toward mid week…..around the Thanksgiving holiday..
Expect More detailed WX discussion later this week…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)
As mentioned below….The storm has slowed with some splitting going on with more energy shifting south. This has delayed the onset of the snowfall to the high country and specifically Southern Mono County. Late last night…..The Rapid Refresh-Model (RRR) showed the onset of the storm beginning about 10:00AM here in Mammoth. The model continues to be consistent on this, and so expect snowfall to begin around that time increasing and becoming heavy during the afternoon…
The estimated accumulations are still good as a guide…
Just a quick update this evening to indicate that the off shore weather system is slowing and may not begin the snowfall in Mammoth until between 10:00am and Noon…..a lot of the energy will be diving south in this system. At this time the Town of Mammoth is still expected to get between 3 and 6 inches of snow with amounts between 6 and 12 inches on Mammoth Mountain. As a note, weather systems like this have less confidence for the forecaster as the QPF is more iffy. Nevertheless, the Dweebs at this point are holding on to the 3 to 6 inches forecast for the Town of Mammoth with roughly double up on the hill by Monday AM.
Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 30s…..Expect breezy conditions in town with winds 15 to 20mph with gusts to 35mph
Lows Sunday night in the single digits and teens…………….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)
Upper Ridge Off Shore and a northwest flow aloft will keep clear skies with cool temps in the forecast the next few days…..Next weather system to bring mainly light amounts of Snowfall for the Towns of Mammoth and June with up to 8 inches possible over the upper Elevations Sunday/Ngt
Thursday November 12, 2015
Posted at 9:13 am by Howard
As mentioned in my discussion below, third paragraph at bottom, I said that the Dweebs were sure that the QPF would be bumped up and low and behold the models did just that. The guidance suggests that up to 12 inches is now possible over the crest.
However, what is not being discussed is that the precipitation is being delayed now by the new 12z WRF until around 12Z to 15Z Sunday AM. If that is true than a lot of the cold air will have had time to get in here and thus we are now looking at a low-end Platinum Powder Alert. In fact considering Orographic’s and Snow to water ratios of 15:1 it may be more like in the 14 to 18 inch range in Saddle Bowl by Monday AM.
I will update this afternoon after the new 12Z ECMWF guidance is out….
The weather will be warmer again today with a little more warming Friday…. (Low 50s) Winds will continue light in town with temperature inversions, whereby lower elevations valleys that are snow-covered will be colder…..day and night. Night time lows over those valleys have been in the single digits the past few days…. So freezing fog is also possible in some areas along the Highway 395 corridor during the early AM hours.
In general, the upper hemispheric pattern is progressive. This is no blocking mechanism over Eastern Canada and so short wave trofs can easily move from the west to the east across the CONUS.
Precipitation amounts in the past weather system were much greater than expected for the central sierra at both short and medium range. In discussion with Retired Lead Forecaster Tom C, it is possible that the models are not factoring in the warmer than normal SSTA’s along the west coast. The Diabatic heating effect of the warmer SSts under a very cold unstable air-mass results in a higher amount of CAPE. (Convective Available Potential Energy) this maybe why there was so much more precipitation last Monday afternoon and night with out a subtropical tap. This is worth mentioning as we have another system that is not as cold as last Mondays storm but has plenty of over water trajectory. Watch the QPF to see if there is changes Friday and Saturday. In the meantime…the Guess is between 2 and 4 inches in town and 5 to 8 inches over the upper elevations Sunday/Ngt. The Dweebs are sure that that will get bumped up by Friday or Saturday.
According to both 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks, temperatures will remain below normal through Thanksgiving day.
In the meantime, the GFS has another significant (Cold) upper low off the Washington coast about the 22nd with Snowfall into Mono County Monday Morning the 23rd. Of course this is subject to change and I have not had a chance to see the 12z ECMWF yet…..
What a Storm! 20 inches at the Main Lodge….26 inches at McCoy Station and 36 inches on Top…..That’s’ about 2 Feet of Platinum Powder at the Summit on Top of what the WX Front droped!
Tuesday November 10, 2015
Posted at 7:21 am by Howard
Quick Look at 12Z ECMWF and 18Z GFSX show Sundays weather system trending;
- More *Consolidated over Central CA
- Stronger further South
- Wetter for the Central Sierra
*Consolidated meaning with “less” splitting. “If” the trend continues well have another storm to write home about…..
Remember, this mornings run showed much more splitting over Central California with only light amounts.
Great winters are the ones when everything comes together in the same area consistently.
Longer range climate models keep below normal temps in the forecast the next two weeks with a Trof in the mean over the Central and Southern Great Basin.
The MJO and the low frequency base state of ENSO:
Folks at CPC had their update this morning and indicated that there is a lot of Destructive Interference going on with the ENSO State. There is more convection going on than normal north of Australia where typically it is mostly subsidence during a strong El Nino. In my opinion, this is probably why the SOI has risen to weakly positive today. The idea is that the MJO signal that is responsible for the interference will weaken next week and reemerge over the Western Indian Ocean. That should return the low frequency state of ENSO back to normal week 2, with convection redeveloping over the western Indian ocean and stronger subsidence and dryness over the Maritime Continent. Again, in my opinion, this should be followed by a sharp drop in the SOI and the return of westerly wind bursts over the central pacific eastward, later this month. Also noted were two more Kelvin Waves that will propagate east to the eastern pacific week two.
The ENSO 3.4 region checked in with a +2.8C with the recent update. That ties the record during the Fall of 1997 for that region in that SST anomaly. The Dweebs believe we will have a new record within the next few weeks in that 3.4 region as there is still plenty of warmth beneath the surface yet to rise. This is the classic case of not all El Nino’s being the same, if some areas have record warmth over a past event in one area and in other areas like the 1+2 region not as warm. For the west coast what is important winter wise for CA, is the SSTs in the Nino 3.4 region. That is where currently we now have a tied record.
What was noted as well was the anomalous convection that occurred over the western Indian Ocean last month. As a coincidence, that also occurred during the Fall of the strong El Ninos of 1982/83 and 1997/98. This is expected to occur again later this month as the MJO reemerge off the east coast of Africa. More later………
Mammoth Mt is off and running! Off to an amazing ski season…..!!
First Platinum Powder Alert is in the bag now and for the most part, the storm over Mono County is over. A few snow showers are possible today as the upper low and cold core shift east. A warming trend begins Wednesday as heights rise and the upper flow becomes northwesterly. High temps today are expected to be in the upper 20s and low 30s at 8K rising to the low 50s next weekend. The next system may bring light snowfall Sunday night into Monday, however there is not a lot of confidence in the system as of this time…
With warming aloft and a cold snow covered surface, many areas around Eastern CA and Western NV this week may have air quality issues because of temperature inversions….
Longer range guidance via all model ensembles, strongly suggests that another major storm will arrive before the Thanksgiving Holiday….
This is still not an El Nino driven pattern….yet….. However, as mentioned in a past discussion. The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge is gone from the west coast! (RRR)
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)