Friday March 15, 2013
Posted at 5:50 pm by Howard
Sunday PM Update:
Models have come in a little wetter this afternoon with the EC generating up to an inch over the crest. I think that is good for the crest. This is for the period Tuesday through Thursday AM. The GFS is a bit dryer. However, it too is a bit wetter then last nights run. The subtropical system has already occluded and is cut off about 1000mi west of the central coast wine country. The system will combine off shore with a system coming out of the Gulf of AK…..but seems to dampen before moving inland producing a weakening front. Thus the lift will be mostly from orographics which will be decent and because of PWs of up to 3/4 of an inch the potential for 10 inches over the crest seem like a good bet now. SWE Ratios will be low….6 or 7:1 at the main lodge and 8 or 9:1 over the crest. There will be a lot of shadowing east of the crest so like the last system snowfall amounts will be unimpressive in town.
CNRFC has freezing levels over Yosemite Tuesday night over 9800 ft, and through Wednesday around 9500. If the atmosphere is saturated and isothermal, snow levels could fall into town. This is a big if through. Otherwise this will be a rain/snow event for the town…. Best guess an inch or two of slush.
Another update Monday…………………………………….>>>>>
Saturday Night Update:
Latest modeling is splitting the Wednesday system pretty badly. This is not going well as only light amounts now expected….
Will update Sunday….
Next weather system will be still running into the head winds of the mean ridge position. The wavelength resulting form the ongoing Greenland block will cause quite a bit of splitting. The system looses a lot of its punch and the models both the GFS and the EC are less in agreement now. Usually when you get closer to an event the models come together. In that they are deviating….Not a good sign. Nevertheless, we will get enough snow to freshen up the base. If you biting down on the EC… the European has backed off a bit now on the QPF. Although it is still painting about 1.25 over the Mammoth portion of the Sierra next week. The GFS has much less. Still have time to watch it though. The Dweebs will update again Monday.
For those that wonder why I have not updated as frequently in the past three weeks. My computer was hit with a nasty virus. I hope to be back up only more frequently next week. If I find out who it was…I will give their address out so you may have your way with them.
Some Rumor’s about a big storm at the end of the Month. Just RUMORS……..>>>>> Will take a good long look ahead next week……>>>>
Stubborn Greenland Block holds tough….However may pull far enough north next week to allow a few storms into the Central Coast
Wednesday March 13, 2013
Posted at 3:12 pm by Howard
All the Dweebs can say is Wow! Our weather is way too nice for this time of the year…..
The strong upper high over California will weaken this weekend to allow considerable high clouds into our area beginning later Thursday. Temps will remain in the low 60s until Friday when a slow cooling trend develops. The cooling is more due to falling heights and cloudiness then any cool air advection.
The next important change comes to the Eastern Sierra when the wave length opens up a bit across the Conus. Notably, Week 2 when positive height anomalies pull far enough north next week and allow more energy to break under the Greenland Block. This looks promising. I think…I mean I hope that the ECMWF has the right idea now as the latest GFS and GFSX has been coming over to its idea of a storm about mid week, next week.
The ECMWF is pretty wet. It appears to be taping into a mid pacific westerly flow (Subtropical jet) and is generously painting 2+ inches (QPF) for the Central Sierra next week between Wednesday and Friday night. The GFS is looking promising as well. However….I would approach this with caution as drought patterns like the one we have been in the past 8 to 10 weeks do not change that quickly. Rather…they tend to fade away with the seasonal change.
So try to enjoy the beautiful weather. I realize that it is difficult. I Will update this Saturday Night or Sunday the latest…..
Storm Now Winding Down….Mammoth Mountain Picks Up…Up to Two Feet of Fresh Powder…..Skiing and Boarding At Its Best Again!!
Friday March 8, 2013
Posted at 6:37 pm by Howard
As of 6:15 PM…snow showers were in progress with some light NNW flow. The main upper low was moving into Arizona while a secondary short wave associated with the trailing upper jet was headed down the coast and effecting mainly the Southern Sierra and Mojave Desert.. At the same time, the upper trof was progressing east out of California.
The storm did all that was expected on Mammoth Mt, although some folks would have liked a bit more snow to push around.. Except for another few inches possible over night……This one is pretty much over…
By Saturday PM skies will be in a clearing mode and a rather strong upper ridge will build into the west coast bringing Ca some of the warmest weather of the year. High desert will get into the upper 70s by Thursday. Here in Mammoth…upper 50s or 60?
The MJO is expected to continue its east ward trek through the Western Pacific. The sub tropical jet will try to make a run for the west coast later in the week. At the same time, the polar jet will be active over the pacific northwest. It may be that the Pacific North West will be in for quite the wet spell after mid week…with a link to the tropics. An atmospheric event is certainly possible. For the time being the Central Sierra looks to escape the drama…….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)