MJO over Phase Four to begin weakening or progressing Toward Phase 5….Robust Trof to shift East out of Area Tomarrow to Insure a warm weekend……Winds To begin to diminish Wednesday………July Fourth Holiday to be a Toasty One from an Interseasonal Perspective…..
Tuesday June 17, 2014
Posted at 9:51 am by Howard
This mornings freeze qualified climatically as the last freeze of the season. The timing of that was right on with Fathers Day usually the last freeze. So the Climatology was great!. The Dweebs do not expect any more freezes in Mammoth Lakes at the 8000 foot level until fall now. However, that does not mean that we are done with warming and cooling periods as well as windy periods. There is another moderate trof on the horizon for the last weekend of June that will have wind in store for the high country along with cooler temps…then a warm up through the 4th of July. July 4th should be a bit breezy but well into the 70s…..
At the moment, we are now in a rapid warning trend that will get us into the upper 60s today, then low 70s by Thursday. Mid 70s Friday and Saturday then close to 80 by Sunday into early next week.
A cool down with wind is expected the following Friday into that weekend.
Yes its been windy….And cooler than Normal…but the Dweebs did warn you of all that. The good news, is that a break in the wind and cool weather is coming up by Thursday. That break should continue through the weekend. When the MJO is in phase 4 this time of the year, the odds are good of pattern of wind and cool for the high country of the Sierra. The progression or weakening of that wave in that area of tropical forcing over the Western Pacific will allow the west coast trof to weaken. So warming with less wind is in our forecast for our region or the weekend.
Over the long-term, the dynamic MJO model strengthens somewhat the MJO again near this region or a little further east. Thus another trof…..however weaker will move toward the west coast next week bringing another spell of wind and cooling. However, the cooling and wind is not likely to be as strong as the current one. As we move toward the end of the month some real signs of Summer begin to take hold. At the moment, the Dweebs are expecting a very warm end of the month of June…..well into the 1st week of July. However, with that said, if a real El Nino is shaping up, it may not be long until weather patterns begin to couple with that equatorial warm water near the dateline. That may spell more wind eventually for our summer and not as persistently hot as during the past several summers.
Mammoth….today low 60s…then upper 60s Wednesday. Lows in the 30s tomorrow AM
Thursday through Sunday will be warm with highs in the low to mid 70s…..while lows will be in the 30s and 40s
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………..:-)
Monday the Warmest Day…Then Scattered Thunderstorms to Rumble in Response to a small closed low arriving just at the right time Tuesday PM…….The MJO Maybe Ready to Kick Start El Nino Soon!!
Monday June 9, 2014
Posted at 5:50 am by Howard
Wind developed overnight in the higher elevations with the top of Mammoth MT gusting to 55MPH at 7:00AM. This winds will get pulled down into Town later this AM as the daytime heating progresses. However, the winds forecasted for town will not gust much more then 40MPH. The very breezy weather will continue through Friday night.
Note….This is not a forecast…just something to watch for
What kind of weather would we expect to see this summer if a strong El Nino was on the horizon for the next Fall- Winter.
Some signs to watch for:
1. Perpetual weak trofing along the west coast and a displaced continental high South-East to eastward from the four corner states. A weaker Monsoon Season for the Desert SW. Not as hot a summer. IE Hot episodes to be either shorter lived or not at all. A much breezier Summer with much less thunderstorms. The Spring Breezy season continuing into the first week of July with a bit cooler than normal temps.
Wednesday PM UPDATE:
An annoying windy period will begin later tonight and last through Friday night. Cooler temps on the way. This nasty trof will be very dry in the high country, increasing fire concerns. Winds up to 45MPH are possible in town at times….
For you locals, the pine pollen is on the increase and so you might want to think about closing your windows to keep the pollen out the next 60 hours….
It looks to be a busy afternoon for Fire Crews as scattered dry thunderstorms are expected develop within the deformation zone associated with a weak upper level low pressure feature coming into Santa Barbara today. This will create weak divergence aloft over the Sierra. Although our air-mass is currently dry in the midlevel’s, there will be plenty of moist parcels of air that will rise from the surface into an increasingly unstable air mass, by mid afternoon. There is expected to be some residual moisture around Wednesday. However, not much of a lifting mechanism as there will be today. So expect just isolated air mass TSRWS Wednesday.
By Thursday, a stronger “open trof” moves into the pacific NW with its dry cold front flushing through the sierra during the day. A clash of air masses with gradient driven winds will develop ahead of the front combined with a surface gradient due to the difference’s between the existing ambient heat of our current air mass and the WX front approaching. Thus it looks windy Thursday here in Mammoth, especially during the afternoon. Fire weather concerns are in the forefront, “if”any new fires are created by todays anticipated lightning strikes.
Post frontal Thursday, it will grow cooler with about 10 degrees of cooling between yesterdays high of 79 and Friday’s 69 degree high. Night times low will cool to the 30s again over the weekend.
During the first half of next week, all the models bring warming back into Eastern CA. However, there is a big contrast on what happens the 2nd half of next week. You see the ECMWF Control sets up a classic Summertime pattern with warming over the west followed by a strong continental high setting up over the Great Basin. Furthermore, the upper height anomaly sets up later over the four corners area in a pattern, suggesting the possibility of an incipient monsoon developing by the end of week 2.
As a comparison, the GFS control over the same week 2 period, has another significant trof effecting our area keeping temperatures seasonal, with periods of wind. These two models during the latter week two period are about as different as they can be!!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………..:-)
After a beautiful weekend…..The Dweebs see some Thunderstorms in our future. Although the Thunderstorm action has been pretty isolated the past few days, that is getting ready to change as warm ambient temperatures react with a dynamic Vort max coming in Tuesday. This will have the effect of strongly destabilizing the atmosphere Tuesday afternoon and into the evening hours.
The rest of the week will be a bit cooler. The forecast models have been back peddling on the colder scenario for sometime now, for next weekend. It now looks like it will be cooler and breezy Thursday into Friday, but no major Cool down with this system. Temperatures will cool to the low 70s in Mammoth. These are more seasonal temperatures then anything else. However, there looks to be a few others low pressure systems before the end of the month that we will have to keep an eye on as far as cooling and wind.
El Nino>>>> Moderate…Strong or Super!
Here is the process. Atmospheric Teleconnections>>>>>>MJO>>>>>>Westerly Wind Bursts>>>>>>Kelvin Waves>>>>>>>EL Nino
For the past five to six European weekly forecasts, the model has been becoming more and more aggressive with a developing MJO signature to push across the central-eastern Pacific later in June through early July. In response, we should expect another period of westerly wind bursts over the western-central part of the Basin. See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
For a more detailed report, check out this timely report from Dr. Michael Ventrice. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2694
Warming Trend to Begin Thursday…..Instability aloft will bring the Slight Chance of TSRWs Thursday & Friday PM….Then a Fair Very Warm Weekend Ahead………Cooler….Windy Weather to arrive by Middle of Next Week…..
Tuesday June 3, 2014
Posted at 9:05 am by Howard
Friday AM Update:
Looks like Mammoth is ready for a couple of 80 degrees days both Sunday and Monday. However the cool down advertised is being pushed back a few days to the latter part of the week.
Here is your high temperature forecast for Mammoth the next several days.
Friday Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thurs (Friday through Sunday)
76 78 80 80 75 75 72 60s
It will be Quite Breezy beginning Wednesday afternoon
Thursday AM Update:
It appears that certain locations in elevation for Eastern CA will be pushing near record high’s by Sunday, and especially Inyo County into Monday as well before the aforementioned cool down begins next week…. It would not surprise the Dweebs if we hit 80F on Sunday…..
Wednesday AM Update:
RE: Longer Range Outlooks
In yesterdays discussion…the Dweebs indicated that it was fairly certain that the MJO was headed to Phase 4. (Maritime Continent). That was recently corroborated by the CPC in their latest discussion.
From the CPC:
“Dynamical model MJO forecasts differ on the forecast of the MJO in WH-RMM phase space, although agreement has increased slightly during the past 48 hours. The GFS ensemble depicts a weak signal over the Indian Ocean with a stronger signal emerging in Phase 3 during Week-2. The ECMWF and UKMET models indicate an emergence in Phase 4 with propagation toward Phase 5. The latter solutions are favored as much of the signal is likely related to faster moving Kelvin Waves.
Sensibly, the point here is most related to what temperatures will do in the Sierra high country over the next few weeks. The location of the tropical convection will most likely shift to the Maritime Continent (phase 4) later next week and then shift over the western pacific (Phase 5) where the high frequency base state of the Kelvin wave moves the convection to phase 5…..weakening, possibly over phase space 6. Beyond the next 5 days of anomalous warm weather, W/ Highs in the mid to upper 70s in Mammoth)…..The eastward Shift of convection increases the amplitude of the westerlies and allows a series of colder short waves into the pacific northwest then great basin, during the latter part of week 2 and possibly into week 3. The main effect to Mammoth Lakes will be on our temperatures and winds here in Mammoth. It looks to be quite breezy, then cooler during the 2nd half of next week….and possibly into the following week as well; based upon the MJO temperature and 500hpa composites. Our normal highs are in the upper 60s now for Mammoth Lakes.
We will be in the mid 70s the next 5 days. I expect cooling well down into the 60s prior to the end of next week and, “a possibly freeze” at some point before fathers day.
This outlook is based upon the MJO temperature Composite’s for June over California, The chilly Trof over the northern great basin showed by the ECMWF is easily correlated for week 2.
The CPC does indicate that the MJO or in this case, tropical convection more associated with the high frequency Kelvin Wave will play the part of normal to cooler than normal temperatures for weeks 2 and possibly 3.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………
Tuesday AM UPDATE:
Just a note to mention that if you missed it yesterday…Mammoth had a brief shower in the Mid-Afternoon. The interesting part about it was that during the shower, the clouds were gone. Obviously they had been blown ENE before the rain hit the ground. The weak upper jet that enhanced instability yesterday is not present today. However it will be back Thursday with even warmer temps. This sets up a better chance of some showers or thunderstorms for the high country Thursday PM as the air mass will be more unstable because of the warmer surface. All in all, it is not going to be a big deal. The most sensible part of the pattern the rest of this week is that is it going to warm up over the next few days leading to a spectacular warm weekend (75F Saturday and Sunday). Highs in Bishop may hit 100 by Sunday.
Outlook: Here comes the fun part. I love when there is a connection between the MJO and the weather over the Sierra. Actually, it will be a synoptic scale change to cooler weather over the far west. There will be wind, clouds and the potential for Freezing temps in Mammoth during the 2nd half of next week.
What happening? The convective phase of the MJO is forecasted to move into the Maritime Continent: SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif (Yes I am buying the ECMWF MJO chart because the GFS has the Trof in the guidance as well, but not in the MJO chart)
The Odds of at least normal to below normal temperatures are pretty good! See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/MJO-T-composites0.shtml
The 15 Day guidance has a pretty good Trof (Not Surprisingly) digging in over the far west after the middle of next week. This is especially evident in the ECMWF week 2 model.