Warmer Weather the next Two Days with Light Winds and PC skies…Winds beginning to come up Firday with a Chance of Snow Friday/Night…..

Wednesday AM Update:

1. Splitting Trof off the pacific northwest Thursday night will shift most energy into Mono County Southward.  Even Los Angelus will get rain now from this storm. Snowfall in the high country will average a foot over the crest with 3 to 6 inches for the Towns of Mammoth and June. Friday will be increasingly windy with gusts to 45 MPH in the Town of Mammoth so for the trick or treater’s…..get it done early!!

 

For Today and Thursday…slightly warmer temps can be expected with highs in the mid to upper 60s…..Lows in the 30s

 

 

Tuesday PM Update:

The Dweebs took a look at the latest QPF from NCEP/WPC and noted that Mono County was in for about 1/2 inch of QPF.  It also indicated that the Northern Sierra would fair better with over an inch of precip. I looked that both the 00z EC’s QPF over the weekend and the 18ZGFS.

NCEP/WPC must be looking at and using the EC for its guidance. However at this distance in time, the GFS is probably better with at least an inch of QPF for Mono County over the Crest.  The latest guidance is splitting the Trof as in comes inland with more of the energy diving into Mono County than the Northern Sierra. The net effects would be to slow the system down and begin the precipitation later in the day Friday and delay the main precipitation until later that night of Halloween. By Sunrise Saturday, the bulk of the snowfall will be over, with a cold showery snowfall pattern continuing throughout the day.  It will be cold Saturday with highs in the 30s….  How Rude!    Expect gusty winds of 30 to 40 MPH at times…nothing unusual for Mammoth Lakes Friday.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………..:-)

 

Monday AM:

Slow warming trend underway as some flat ridging takes place. Thursday will be the warmest day with highs in the mid 60s in Mammoth before the 1st good storm moves in Friday afternoon. Great news today as although no official El Nino declared by NCEP because they use the ENSO 3.4 region as a guide, a couple of the indices are ready touting it.  Of Note: The SOI; Southern Oscillation Index Value from Queensland, AU for the last  90 days  is -8.3. Daily Contribution -10.6.  This along with the MEI says we are already there…..That weak El Nino conditions are under way.

New 12z Monday GFSX and 00Z Monday ECMWF are similar that over the next two weeks a series of significant storms are headed for Central and Northern CA….

Longer Range:

It all good……

Todays NCEP CFSv2 from has The Mammoth Lakes region’s Precipitation at a 250% Deviation from Normal with 8.5 inches of water EQ by November 30th.  If that verifies….At 10:1, 85 inches of snow by months end over the upper elevations.

Dec:

Mammoths Precipitation as a deviation of normal from December 1st through the 10th is 150% of normal.

Additionally…the model shows an additional 1.5 inches of water the first 10 days of December for a total of about 9.5 inches of water over the next 45 days. That would be 8 feet of snow the way it falls over the upper elevations….If it works out.

 

More Later…………………………

 

The Dweeber………………….:-)

Windy Today…Chilly Sunday then Fair and Mild Next Week…..1st Snow Bearing Clouds for the TOML Expected Next Weekend…..

Saturday AM…

Upper Trof now making its way on-shore with Cold Front and Gradient ahead….   Some Light Showers possible this afternoon and evening.  Main effect of upper trof is wind with wind advisories going into effect at 11:00am today Saturday with gusts to 55mph in town. It will remain windy through most of the evening…..  High temps today in the mid 50s and upper 40s Sunday. Lows in the 20s tonight and upper teens by Monday at Sunrise.

Outlook:

Short wave ridging will push in over a rather chilly morning Monday. Temperatures will moderate back up into the 60s by mid-week. There will be lots of clouds mid-week as well as a temporary zonal flow on Tuesday setting up to the north. So partly cloudy skies can be expected Tuesday and Wednesday.  By Thursday AM a more amplified pattern begins to develop with southwest flow over California and ridging downstream over the Rockies. It will be a little breezy Thursday but a little warmer as well. Then on All Hallows Eve, the first significant storm makes its way to the coast.  Winds slowly ramp up during the day and become strong by Friday night.  Precipitation begins “Base upon the GFS timing” late Saturday morning with Saturday afternoon and evening the main shot. It will be showery Saturday night and cold.

1st guess for snowfall amounts……6 to 12 inches next weekend (Saturday-Sunday)  over the crest and 3 to 6 inches at 8K.   At this distance in time…. No doubt that there will be changes both to the timing and amounts…..  Happy Halloween……. (:^D

Westerlies continue to pick up strength as pressures aloft build into CA the next few days for some warming….Wet Pacific NW frontal system will sag south Friday leading to Breezy weather Friday Afternoon and stronger winds Friday night….Then light snowfall for the high country Saturday PM….Winter Outlook Looking wetter now for CA….

 

Thursday Midnight Special Update:

Longer Range Global Models GFSX and ECMWF have a significant Storm System bringing the possibility of a foot+ of snowfall, the last weekend of October into the first few days of November. The GFSX is more progressive bringing it in the 31st of October while the ECMWF is slower with the system for later in the weekend. Stay tuned to this 1st developing significant storm for the Eastern Sierra.

 

The Dweeber……………………:-)

 

Thursday:  This mornings Satellite motion showed a well-developed AR (atmospheric river) Stretched between the OR/CA border and north of Hawaiian Islands. The rainfall event is  now on for the Pacific NW with up to 9 inches+… expected storm totals in some areas. The Nino 3.4 region has bumped to +.6C as of the 19th of October and another .4C of warming over the next few months would be considered “Moderate” and make a difference in our winter weather….. the Positive phase of the PDO has also strengthened September over August and indications show signs of further strengthening in October….  Of Note: The Snow Cover is 5X that of normal south of 60N over Eurasia. Normally on this date there is about 1 million squared kilometers of snow cover south of 60°N across Eurasia and instead, this year there is 5 million. Usually there is a strong correlation of this anomaly to a strong -AO which can send arctic air south over the US.  The big question will be what will be its trajectory? If Eastern California is going to be effected, it will most likely be in December.  Watch out for an exceptionally cold December over the Great Basin!

WX Outlooks:  ECMWF has a storm for Central and Southern California the very end of October into early Nov. The GFSX 00z Friday has the same storm for All Hallows Eve….. Stay tuned….>>>>   The CFSv2 has Central and Northern CA in for a wet November……

Some light rainfall and high elevation Snowfall is expected in Mammoth Saturday….It will be Breezy Friday night with stronger winds Saturday with possible wind advisories… High temps will cool to the upper 40s by Sunday/Monday.

More later…….

 

From Wednesday: A brief forecast for this morning shows warmer days through Friday with highs returning to the mid to upper 60s and lows in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be light overall until Friday, when they will increase in response to a southward push to the upper jet.  The weekend outlook looks unsettled with wind early, light snowfall Saturday then cooling into Sunday…..   It is nice to see some positives with Winter forecasts, for at least a normal amount of snowfall for the high country this winter.  WeatherBELL Analytics is a fairly new company. It was started just a few years ago by Joe Bastardi, former hurricane and long range forecaster for Accuweather…. and Joe D’Aleo, the first Director of Meteorology for The Weather Channel. The just released winter forecast shows that for the Mammoth area, about 117% of the normal amount of precipitation can be expected between December and the end of February.  That’s a lot of snowfall here in our area! The temperature graphics show above normal temps….not all that surprising for an expected weak to moderate El Nino winter.  I mention WeatherBell because it did a pretty good job last winter.  Now I will say that other forecasts are not as positive, like WXrisk.com indicating below normal precipitation and above normal temps.  The National Weather Service uses more bias in the way they come across in there forecasts, indicating that there is an equal chance for either a wet winter or a dry winter here in the central sierra. They all agree on above normal temperatures. The CFSv2 the climate forecast model is wet for California and even gets it going on in November……

What the Dweebs Think…………… Here is what I see:  1.  The PDO after being negative (Cold SSTA’s) switched to positive (warm SSTA’s) along the west coast last spring and early Summer. However since then it began to weaken in its positive phase until last month.  The indices jumped back up from .67 in August up to 1.08. Why is that important? You may have noticed that significant El Nino’s have been absent for quite a while. There is a coincidence to that. During this phase of the PDO cycle which can last 20 plus years El Ninos are less common and are generally weaker.  The fact that we are seeing a strengthening +PDO “may lend” support to the fledgling El Nino that is trying to get going. The way the cold SSTAS are extending eastward from the NW pacific toward the east central pacific is a positive sign for the occurrence of higher AIM and further development to a Significant warm ENSO phase this winter. 2. The SSTAs off Baja are at historically high levels since 1949. This would provide fuel for the storms to act upon this winter. Snow cover is rapidly increasing over eastern Siberia giving support to a -AO winter. That tends to provide more meridial flow or blocking…. More Later……………………………………..—-     Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)