Chilly beginning of this week to be followed by Moderating Temps Wednesday with system to the north Thursday then Party Cloudy but Dry Weekend…..Increasing snow pack with Wet Base Building Storms to begin possibly Middle of Next Week….

 

 

The Dweebs will continue this discussion later this morning….   A series of major storms look likely to hit the northern California Coast first next week with the storm track shifting south as the week progresses.  A negative tilt upper high will set up east of the dateline and north next week with a full latitude long wave trof down stream over the eastern pacific. The upper long wave trof will become both deeper and dig further south with time, tapping potentially high amounts of subtropical moisture for the west coast. There will be wet storms with heavy wet base building snowfalls for the upper elevations, eventually for Mono County as well…..

The Dweebs want to stress that this is very early in the game of pinning down any particulars. The best point one can make is that there will be a pattern change highlighted by an important positive height anomaly set up between Hawaii and the Dateline with a lot of amplification that will dig a significant long wave trof over the eastern pacific. Once the upper long wave is carved out, the upper jet associated with short waves will take aim on the central west coast.

Because of the depth and tilt of the long wave there is the potential for significant subtropical moisture becoming entrained  in the pattern associated with the eastern flank of the upper trof. The actual track of the systems will determine what areas of California will get the brunt of the precipitation. At the moment, Northern California is favored through 360 hours by the ECMWF as it paints a bull’s eye just to the East of Chico, Ca of 6.4 inches accumulated over the 360 hour period. This also suggests that snow levels will be on the high side down here in the southern portion of the Central Sierra.  Again this is subject to change dependent upon where the 500mb heights end up in our area.

At the moment, between 2.5 and 3 inches is being forecasted for the same time period for the Mammoth Crest. That could be 20 to 30 inches of snow up on the crest. This will change daily…as every model run is different. So this is just a snap shot from last nights Run of the EC.

In the meantime it will be a dry week….Cold today, chilly Tuesday and milder Wednesday through Saturday. Early morning Temps will be in the teens tomorrow, then moderating back to the 20s by mid week. Little change in temps there after through Saturday. Wednesday night into Thursday will be breezy. Sunday partly cloudy and dry.

Interseasonal:  MJO- location of tropical forcing… Phase 3 is highly favored for precipitation in central and Southern Ca  for November.

See:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/OND/combined_image.png

The EMON (Seasonal Prediction Ensemble Forecast System) Looks Interesting……

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_51m_full.gif

I like the fact that it goes along with the Dynamic Statistical Model:

http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/fcsts/pd.MW05.Last.gif

 

Teleconnections;  The PNA teleconnection is forecasted to take a dive through the 15th of Nov. (good news)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.fcst.gif

 

 

More later……..

 

The Dweeber….

Cold Beginning to the First week of November with Inside Slider Pattern to Chill Out the High Country Sunday into Monday…Some Moderation in Temps by Mid Week…The Following Weekend Still Looks Unsettled

Saturday PM

Both global models seem to be pushing off the storm now until a week from this Monday or Tuesday….Stay tuned….

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A change to colder weather is still in the cards for Sunday through Tuesday of the new week. This mornings model runs were even drier than yesterday which had at the least a slight chance of showers for Sunday. So the change in the pattern will benefit mostly the snow makers up on the hill VS the snow pushers in town…… Moderate Winds will come up later today and tonight….  Today may be the last 60 degree day for a long time!!!!  Enjoy!! Sundays high will be closer to 40.

By Mid Week temperatures will moderate back to the low 50s from 30s Monday. The weather will remain dry for the next 5 to 6 days.

This mornings ECMWF lost next weekends storm while the GFS, (NOAA) model still has it. Although the ECMWF did not show a storm in its deterministic model run from 00z Saturday, the ensemble members are many enough to still have confidence at this time for a storm next weekend.

 

The Dweebs will have a more detailed discussion  tomorrow Sunday if the models are fruitful or will wait until next week when the timing gets closer….

.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………:-)

A Nice Break in the Weather for the Little Goblins Thursday Night as High Pressure Builds over Central California Today into Friday……So far the Weather will be Dry But Cooler Sunday into Monday….

10-31-2013 UPDATE

No changes to the Short Term Forecast…..

Fair and Sunny today for All Hallows Eve
Temps today in the mid 50s then near 60 both Friday and Saturday.
Tonight lows for the little goblins will be mostly low 40s but cooling to the upper 30s by 8:00pm.

(With 700mb temps at or above +5c Thursday night through Saturday morning) Snow making conditions will become more marginal again. However by Sunday, colder air will invade the upper elevations after Midnight Saturday night with improving snow making conditions…..The First part of next week looks ideal!

The Weekend outlook looks breezy beginning Saturday evening then cooler and windy Sunday into Sunday night. Lots of high clouds as well. So far the showers are expected to stay up to the north of us, down to about Coleville, Ca  However, if that system sharpens up any more, the Dweebs can not rule out a few snow showers, especially if we get clipped by a late trailing Vort Max on the back side of the upper Trof later Sunday or Monday AM.

High temps Saturday near 60 but cooling to the 40s by Sunday as a dry cold front comes through. Monday will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s following by teens the following morning,

It is a dry 5 to 7 day outlook…

 

Longer Range Progs push back the pattern change for significant storminess….To begin between the 12th and 14th of November.

Remember especially this time of the season……the target often times will change in both directions so stay tuned!!

Interseasonal

1. The Forecast for November shows normal precipitation and colder than normal temperatures.

2. “The Main Stormy Period” according to the CFS with the best chance of snowfall is the period between the 14th through the 20th of November……………….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..

 

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From Yesterday:

500 hpa heights will rise today through Friday as warmer air moves in from the Eastern Pacific over the colder air in place. Antecedent moisture left from yesterdays storm will combine with a strengthening inversion to create freezing fog conditions….mainly after midnight tonight and into the morning hours along the highway 395 corridor. This will be especially true, in and around the open area lakes like Mono and Crowley Lake. Freezing fog can be a problem for drivers on bridges,  as well as your windshield because of reduced visibility.  Here in Southern Mono County, the 395 highway stretch through the Long Valley area is favored for radiational and freezing fog. Its bridges between the Sherwin Summit and the Mammoth turn off can be hazardous for motorist’s not accustomed to driving in such conditions.  Put windshield defrosters on warm then high heat before you get into that area. That is the best way to drive through it and of course slow down before you get into the Ice Fog.

Comment and recap of the last storm.

There was a lot of hype during the last storm that caught all forecasters off guard on the amount of precipitation that fell in the Mammoth area. The storm was prefaced by a high wind event Sunday night in which several areas lost power. Precipitation began in the form of snow about 3:00am Monday morning after the front moved through. The short term models came in sync indicating a 110 Knot upper jet along then off shore as the system evolved. Moisture developed over California as the system deepened. It seemed that the models were constantly playing catch up to the storm itself. No doubt that there was an orographic effect to this system as reflected in snowfall amounts, even though it was uncharacteristic of the weather type itself.

The Storm system brought at least a foot over the Mammoth Sierra Crest with an estimated .94 inches of water over the Pass according to telemetry. 10 inches of snow  was measured at the plot according to Joni Lynch at Mammoth Mt.  Given the orographic nature of the event, it was highly unlikely that 10 inches of snow fell at elevations between 8000 and 8300 as reported by some zealot’s. Gusty winds in convective showers most likely resulted in tallied amounts as such,  most likely in areas lee of buildings or trees.  At Mamothweather.com, the snow melt tip bucket tallied .44 inches of water. I measured between 6 to 8 inches of snow with a few areas up to 10 inches. Again, in areas “Lee” of trees,  caused by blowing and drifting. The temperature of 25 degrees can foster ratios of up to 15:1.

 

Moving on….Ridging is the word the next few days. Along with the ridging comes warmer temps. Highs may climb as high as 60 by Friday or Saturday. Nighttime lows will be effected by temperate inversions with the coldest temps in the lower Mono County Basins or valleys.

The pattern remains progressive and a series of short wave trofs will ride mainly to the north of Mammoth through early next week. The next system over the weekend will bring mainly high clouds to Mammoth with breezy conditions developing later Saturday into Sunday. A dry cool front will bring cooling to the tune of some 10 to 15 degrees by Sunday over Saturdays highs. Monday will be cooler yet with highs near 40.  Temperatures remain a bit below normal for the most part as we transition from October to November.  So Far…..It is a dry 5 to 7 day outlook.

Longer Range:

There is certainly excitement for the possibilities in the longer range. The PNA teleconnection pattern is expected to become more negative in nature as the calendar progresses beyond mid week next week. A long wave trof is more likely than not,  expected to set up along the west coast and eventually effect the southern half of the west coast as the Polar Jet makes a return for the Winter. The timing of the Ensembles of both global models, is about 24 hours apart. The ECMWF is the fastest bringing in the first salvo of precip Thursday PM the 7th while the GFS ESM is later the next day Friday.  The  good news is that there is a strong suggestion is that this is not just a one shot deal. Rather a series of storms as the pattern or should I say west coast negative height anomaly intensifies (deepens) into the following week.

 

Stay Tuned………………………

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………….:-)