Strong Inversions to Hold Through Weeks end with Milder Weather over the Weekend into Early Next Week……Another fridged system is lurking for Friday Next Week…..

Quick update:

No Surprises..  Warmer weather the next few days then cold pattern to repeat with a couple of very cold California sliders bringing some light snowfall Thursday into Friday.  Very cold temps with highs Thursday the 19th into the teens and 20s and lows in the zeros and single digits. possible snow showers Thursday. Maybe an inch or two.

This is a drought pattern……for the time being>>

I have to say that it is one of the ugliest I have seen in several years……

Thank Mammoth Mountain for all their great snowmaking, They are doing a fabulous job!!!!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

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Temperatures will remain mild here in the high country today with daytime highs in the low to mid 40s…Nights in the teens. Although there was no wind yesterday, a weak trof of low pressure will move through Friday morning, kicking up some upper elevation wind from the NW, 25mph to 50mph, and bringing some cooling to the tune of 5 to 7 degrees. This is certainly good news for the snow making program on Mammoth Mtn.  In speaking with Cliff Mann from Mammoth Mountain. All runs that are part of the snow making program will have great coverage. Even the Little Eagle Area will be ready to go for the Christmas holiday! June Mountain has trails ready to go as they open tomorrow the 13th. They will continue to open additional trails in the future.

Although Mother Nature has not cooperated in the snow department, the cold wave of last week created perfect snow making conditions on Mammoth Mountain and so skiing and boarding conditions will be excellent for the holiday!

Weather-wise, as noted above, some short-term cooling is expected Friday. However, temperatures will rebound Saturday into Monday. It will stay mild through Wednesday. Thereafter, another inside slider is expected the 19th next Thursday. *Should it track a bit further west, then we could get some light additional snowfall. However at this time, the track is through the great basin and it is dry meaning some snow showers are possible but no significant accumulations. It will also be windy and cold.  Note…..the change from yesterday is that fridged air or Arctic air in no longer in this outlook period as the upper ridge is not as amplified on this morning run, as was the case yesterday.  Additionally, no over water trajectory is noted on either the ECMWF or GFS. So outside of some snow showers, it is a typical December inside slider.

*9:10am update….The new 12Z Thursday GFS is a bit west with a short wave offshore, but the GFS splits the trof and the energy stays off shore going south. IE (No Effect for Mammoth)

 

Longer Range: Week 2 (Subject to Change)

 

Looking at the ECMWF ensembles and controlled forecast for week two,

There is another slider expected about Christmas Day.  This does look colder with Arctic Air. Cross Polar Flow into the Nations mid section is indicated as well, so some of the coldest air yet this season is expected over the west and especially the Midwest. Other then that, the Dweebs will be following this development…..If it trends west “over water.”….It would be a similar system that brought about a foot last week.

 

Stay Tuned…………….The Dweebs have you covered!  :-)

 

 

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Looking out over the pacific….The split in the westerlies off the pacific coast will keep CA dry. The details show the eastern pacific ridge shifting east and weakening while a small slider drops through the west/central Great Basin Thursday night. While none of the models bring any precipitation with this system for the Mammoth area, the models handle the feature different enough that there is a question on whether or not the it may generate enough wind to mix out the valleys. I think that what ever happens, it will be a cooler day here in Mammoth Friday. Temperatures Saturday into Sunday warm again……  Of note, there is a cluster of ensembles that feature a cut off Low……off the Southern CA coast early in the weekend. That may affect the Southern CA coastal areas but not Mammoth Lakes.

Longer Term:

Of note, both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks were dry for Mammoth, while at the same time…..there was beginning to be some ensemble members showing up on the GFS and ECMWF that showed another round of amplification (ridging) into the Gulf of Alaska between 140W and 150W and a responding short wave affecting the Central West Coast Between Wednesday and Friday next week. I suspect that if we continue to see this feature today in the next 4 runs and especially again tomorrow, the outlooks will change. As a comment, the GEM does not have this feature at all! But sometimes the Canadian is not as good on the west coast as the other two.

Some Guess Work:

For what its worth…the ECMWF has a pretty sharp positive tilt upper trof approaching the west coast Wednesday night with ample over water trajectory for moderate snowfall.  A very cold area of Arctic Air stretched between Washington state north to the NW territories shows coupled with the offshore Trof. The upstream feature over BC is phased to an Arctic Low even north of 60N over Central Canada. (Continental Polar). By Friday, the EC has the an Arctic low over Washington State poised to slide south behind the lead short wave Friday.  If this sets up as shown…..high temps would be back into the low teens, Friday and Saturday, possibly setting us up for another extended cold wave as subsequent short waves from AK/BC are indicated..

Again……not all the models are handling this the same way. However…..in that we have seen this pattern recently, it would not surprise the Dweebs of it recurring again later next week VS if this had not happened at all. If this verifies, and at this point it is a big if…..another possible 6 inches to a foot could fall on Mammoth Mt. This would be followed by the return of the Deep Freeze.  The Cold Air-Mass over the Great Basin is depicted by the ECMWF on the 20th over Northern NV Friday as a -3.2 Sigma. (Standard deviations from Climo)…Thus as we approach the coldest time of the year for Mammoth that would be significant.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)

 

 

Strong Inversions setting up over the Eastern Sierra as Warm Air Aloft moves in……Mono Lake Ice Fog leading to Pogonip Conditions for Lee Vinning and Mono City….Next weather will be about December 19th…….

Yes folks…it that time of the year…..In December after an Arctic outbreak you often get strong temperature inversions…..This leads to poor air quality as wood smoke begins to collect on a daily bases.   Temperature inversions also help to create the beautiful Pogonip often found in deep valleys like Long valley and or around Mono Lake.  However….Sometimes this condition will last for weeks in December and January. When it does, it can cause the infamous “Mono Lake Head Bangers Syndrome”. This condition can effect anyone living in Mono City or Lee Vinning. The only cure is to listen to a double Album of AC/DC or Metallica. If that doesn’t work, you must seek higher ground. The Syndrome is diagnosed by an excessive amount of irritability, between husbands and wife’s after days of no sun.

On a serious note…..

Its all about the inversion….Daytime highs will climb each day except Friday as a dry front moves through. No guarantee the front will be strong enough to mix us out.   Nighttime lows for the valleys will be in the single digits, teens and sub zeros…. At elevations at and above 8,000ft Night time lows will be in the teen and 20s then rising to the 30s Wednesday. Daytime highs will be in the upper 30s and 40s and possibly low 50s

 

Here are the freezing levels at 4:00PM Each Day this week.

Tuesday;         9800ft

Wednesday    9400ft

Thursday;     10,200ft

Friday;          10,200ft

Saturday      12,900ft

Sunday        13,300ft

OUTLOOK:

Storm Track to stay well to the north the next 7 days.  However, both global models show the next system to effect our area will be between the 18th and the 20th. It is another system associated with an amplifying upper high into the Alaska pulling down very frigid air over the far west.  As always, the big question will be (“Will it have an over water trajectory?)  Since the exact track is critical….The jury will be out on this one until next weekend at the earliest.

 

The Dweeber…………………………:-)

 

Sierra Storm dropped 10 to 14 inches of Powder on Mammoth Mtn….Snow Showers will Continue Today…..It will be Milder by Mid Week……..

Sunday AM Update:

Cold……Cold…… Yesterday’s high temp briefly peaked at 15 degrees. However most of the day ranged between 10 to 14 degrees. Winds in town were clocked 25 to 30mph with gusts to 52 MPH. Hence wind chill’s ranges from -5 to -15 all day!

Early Sunday morning temps were colder then a snakes vest button with -0 to the -35. Anchorite, NV near Hawthorn, NV had an unofficial low of -35 this morning, Bridgeport -14, Cold springs up north of Stead NV on the California side -22, -19 at Tuolumne Meadows and the list goes on and on. Mammoth Lakes had an official -8 this morning in town while the Mammoth AP had -8. Crestview -13 and Bodie -26F.    Expect another cold night tonight.

Inversions:

This upcoming week the upper elevations will recover temperature wise as the freezing level goes up to 10,500 feet by Wednesday afternoon. Temperature inversions along with a decline in air quality will result. Those residents with out EPA approved wood burning devises should pay attention to local advisories on wood burning Tuesday and Wednesday of the upcoming week.

A change in the pattern to a dry one seems evident in the medium and long range charts, as heights rise over the eastern pacific in response to the break down of the block in the G of Ak   (-epo) and the redevelopment of the (-wpo) the block that will set up for a while in the vicinity of the dateline then westward.   Again this will cause height rises and along with that,  the return of the upper jet to the pacific northwest and BC.

Milder days and Dry weather looking likely in the weeks to come.

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

 

 

 

Quick recap this AM…..Much of the snow in town has blown and drifted.  Some areas have 5 inches while others 2.5 feet in drifts.  Winds clocked to 60 miles per hour buffeted the local neighborhood’s of Mammoth Lakes at 5:00am. Winds are still in the 30 to 40 MPH class in town while upper elevations….winds over 100 MPH. The upper jet max is in the vicinity and will keep the winds going all day. They should gradually diminish later today and tonight some.  There is one more little feature coming down in the upper flow early Sunday Am but no one is talking about it and will probably be benign.  So for now…snow showers will be in the forecast today and possibly tonight as well.  A cold blustery pattern for the time being….Highs in the teens and lows -0s.

Looking down the Road….   The current pattern breaks down between Sunday and Wednesday as the -EPO falls apart and give way to transition.  The upper ridge in the Gulf of AK deamplifys and that air mass pushes into California for some warmth by mid-week. Beyond that, there are some ensembles members showing some energy coming through next Friday and again the middle of the following week.  But nothing define..  The trend however…..is looking drier and milder as we go through the end of the month.

Lots of temperature inversions and air quality issues as a stretched out east-west positive upper height anomaly sets up over the Eastern Pacific.

From what the Dweebs see, the pattern over the pacific becomes very chaotic and it is doubtful that any forecaster has any great deal of confidence beyond the 5 to 7 day period with the short waves dampening through what is becoming a long wave ridge position over the eastern pacific.  One thing is for sure, the Dweebs do not see any major wet storms in the next 6 to 10 day period. Possibly some small ones…

For what its worth…..CFS has the latter half of the month dry. So it is not all that encouraging as well.

SEE:   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20131206.z500.gif

This winter is going to be a different animal. Weird, uncommon teleconnections are developing hemispherically that are unstable. There is so much going on globally weather-wise with record cold in parts of the NH and a lots of powerhouse storms over Eurasia and record early snows piling up in the Rockies….

Cant wait until we get our turn!

 

More later>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)