Mammoth Mt received up to a two foot dump of Platinum Powder last night…..More on the way later today and tonight…….
Tuesday April 1, 2014
Posted at 10:20 am by Howard
Tuesday Evening Update:
Although conditions for high Snow to water ratios continue through Wednesday AM, it is unlikely that a foot of snow will fall tonight over the crest, and so the Dweebs Criteria for another Platinum-Powder-Alert is not there. However, 500MB temperatures over the area associated with the upper low will still be -27C and even -10C at 700MB over night tonight and into the morning. So potentially, snow to water ratios of 15:1 still exist. Snowfall amounts over night may range between 5 to 8 inches above 9000 ft to over the crest by mid morning and in town, 3 to 5 inches is possible. Another inch or two is possible during the day Wednesday..
As a note; there is more uncertainly about the QPF tonight, as compared to last night when the upper jet was plowing through the Southern Sierra. Another reason for QPF uncertainty is that a lot of the precip will remain over the west side tonight.
The Thursday night Friday splitting system is expected to bring 1 to 3 inches by Friday night. Fair WX is expected Saturday through Tuesday next week with the possibility of another closed low pressure system effecting our area the following Wednesday night into Thursday…..
Part 1 of one of the best storms of the season dumped up to 2 feet at between 15 and 20:1 over Mammoth Mt. Hence the Platinum Powder Alert verified over night…..
Part 2 rolls in later today…then continues into tonight with amounts in inches of 5 to 8 and possibly close to a foot over the crest. Snowfall will be heaviest tonight as the upper low open into a Trof and moves through the central and southern portions of the golden state by mid morning Wednesday. Wednesday looks snow showery in the AM with showers decreasing in the afternoon. Most of the precip will be deformation initiated and so we will not have the strong orographic effect that will often times double snowfall amounts.
This now looks to be the last in a series of storms that has brought several feet of snow to Mammoth Mt, making for the best Easter Break holiday in a long time…..
The next system Thursday night into Friday will most likely be snow showers as the storm splits and goes south. There might be any where from a dusting to an inch or two by Friday night.
Strong ridging develops Sunday into Monday next week…..Keeping the weather dry through Mid Week next week. Highs will move well into the 50s by Sunday and approach 60 by mid-week. There after, another closed low indicated by todays 12ZGFS my bring us a moderate storm about the 10th of April. Another is looming by that following Sunday.
PS If you did not take advantage of this mornings Platinum Powder, you really missed out!!!!!!!!
Dr Howard and the Dweeebs……………….
Storm System Now Approaching Mammoth will bring Snowfall over two periods……..Both precip periods will bring higher Snowfall Ratios…..Fair warmer weekend is expected
Monday March 31, 2014
Posted at 9:44 am by Howard
Platinum Powder Alert continues for the high country for Tuesday Morning with a foot plus expected over the Crest. The Dweebs use the Crest because of the temperatures expected their in qualifying at for least 15:1 or better for the Ratios. Also needed is at least a foot+ of fresh….that is expected by Tuesday AM. (The Storm is coming into our area in two parts)
Part 1. Precipitation will be the heaviest averaging between .5 and 1.00 over the orographically-favored terrain of the sierra. The most favorable area from the exit region of the front left quad with its forcing and upper diffluence and lower level moisture transport puts Mammoth in the Bull’s-eye, today and tonight. Snow to water rations of between 15&17:1 will be centered over the higher elevations of the sierra tonight.
Part 2. The upper low, now well west of the Columbia River will continue to drift SE toward the Bay Area with a well-defined mid level short wave. This feature shows a jet streak ejecting out ahead through Central CA and into the Great Basin. The progs locate the upper low over SFO 12Z Wednesday AM as it opens it into an open wave and kicks SE through the Sierra in the AM. There may be a short period of time where there is a weak circulation center at 700mb over/near Tonopah, NV for about 6 hours of upslope for a few more inches of lee side snowfall Wednesday.
Although this storm does not have nearly the PWAT that the last had….It is much colder and more dynamic than our weekend system and so snowfall amounts could be greater by Wednesday PM Between 1 to 2 feet over the upper elevations.
There is a splitting system that will be effecting our area Friday PM….In which we may get some show showers. Based upon the new 12Z GFS guidance there does not appear to be much of any accumulation for our area.
Inter Seasonal Precip:
Took a look at the latest CFS long-range: It shows 4 inches of QPF for the month of April and .5 for May through mid-month. So Spring may have another 4 feet of snow left in it through the middle of May.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………..:-)
As one Storm exits…..The next is on the way for Monday and Tuesday……Platinum-Powder-Alert for Tuesday AM……Unsettled weather in the extended as well…..
Sunday March 30, 2014
Posted at 1:09 pm by Howard
4 to 7 in town by 5:00 am Tuesday
Monday night….8 to 12 inches over upper elevations
Tuesday Am through Wednesday Night
3 to 6 in town….6 to 12 inches over upper elevations….
Short Term Tonopah Low may develop briefly early Wednesday AM (12Z) for a bit of a boost on precip for the T-O-M….
Last night Storm got hung up over the Northern Sierra as a wave developed along the front delaying the precipitation by a good 6 hours. A good 6 hours translated to a good foot of snow that we missed as it fell well to the north of us. Finally, energy came in from the west, pushing the more dynamic part of the system through our area, early this morning. I have to say it; the CRFC did a fabulous job with the QPF as they obviously understood the storm better than most forecasters and Weather Dweebs, including myself.
Mondays storm….This is going to be another tough one, but much different than last nights. This system is very cold. >-25C at 500mb… -10 to -12 at 700mb. The moisture/and temperature for ice crystals developing in the dendritic growth zone 12,000 to 18000 in the SKEW-T Prog for Monday night with much colder temperatures should be ample for much higher Snow to Water Ratios. Ratios of 15 to 17:1 look pretty promising for Monday Night along the crest and so the Platinum-Snow-Alert for Tuesday Am looks good for you powder hounds……..(15+) inches in the Bowls….Take your fat boys for the first few hours……