Temperatures to remain normal to above the next week with chances of some summer type rainfall increasing Sunday then into Tuesday……CFS Today has El Nino Beat Picking Up Tempo for California Winter of 2014……
Friday August 16, 2013
Posted at 9:18 am by Howard
Sunday Am Update:
Offshore weak trof is now a cut-off low. It was located a little SW of Monterrey Bay at Sunrise. It will spin up a bit drift slightly south over the next 36 hours and so its effect upon the Sierra Tomorrow over today will be greater. PWAT is not impressive today. About .65 over Mammoth but will increase Monday into Tuesday. It is estimated by Tuesday, up to 1.00 of PWAT is possible, as both Air mass Modification and a deeper SE flow runs up the spine of NV/CA to add to the mix. Yesterday and again today antecedent conditions were/are very warm. That will add to the process as temperatures reached 82 yesterday…..100 in Bishop. So we have plenty of heat from below. Divergence aloft is increasing along with terrain driven convergence…and so the moistening process will be strong. The tempo should really increase tomorrow as the position of the Upper Low will be more favorable to Mammoth Lakes than today.
Today’s storms will not be as wet as Mondays and Tuesdays or as numerous. Looking at the SPC, the only real area of 300mb divergence today is over the Southern Owens Valley at this time. However at 10:23 Am Sunday, there was a small 850mb-250mb Divergence/Convergence couplet showing up on the SPC over Southern Mono County. Again expect some isolated TSRWS this afternoon including Mammoth Lakes. But the wetter storms will certainly be Monday/Night!
The only other thing worth mentioning today Sunday is the formation of tropical storm IVO west of Acapulco and yet another depression later in the month. We are getting into that time Climo wise where a tropical storm could pump some moisture into LA…then up into the Sierra there after. Some of the forecast models already track IVO toward Cabo San Lucas, bringing very unsettled weather by or just before next weekend. Moisture from one of those systems may bring some rain to Southern Ca. if the midlevel and upper flow are favorable.
The Dweebs Acknowledge that outside of the few week’s of Smoke this Summer, it has been one of the best Summers weather-wise in memory. Highs have ranged from just a few periods of low 70s during a few cool spells to the low 90s very early in the Summer. We have had a few spells of rainfall as well. I’d say over all we’ve been a bit above normal in temps.
Through this weekend and next week, typical Summer weather will continue while at the sometime, the Polar Vortex continues to strengthen. After all, it is Fall like now through out many areas of Canada.
The weather of the next 5 days will be highlighted by a piece of energy getting pinched off at the bottom of a pacific northwest trough. This little upper cut off low will set up off the coast of Central CA this weekend and into early next week. The GFS so far has it kicking through Central CA Tuesday while the EC has it lifting more NNE into Northern CA/OR. Temps will change little the next few days, however, as the cut-off forms, it begins to interact with the upper high over the desert SW by channeling moisture NNW from out of Old MX/AZ. The upper level flow at the mid levels initially back from the south, then deeper SE flow will move into the Sierra Monday and Tuesday for the best chances of Rainfall then. Air-Mass modification and dynamics will work in tandem with moisture advection this weekend. So we may get some rainfall. Chances of measurable precipitation are: 20% Saturday afternoon and evening; 30% Sunday and Sunday night; 30%-40% Monday through Tuesday Evening. Daytime highs will continue in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.
Upper cutoff is expected to kick through Tuesday Night and so remaining moisture will bring a partly cloudy day on Wednesday. At this time the Dweebs are expecting it to be Dry Wednesday and through the remainder of next week. As we go through the rest of the week we go back to a dry southwest flow pattern with weak toughing along the west coast and a stronger Zephyr, especially toward the following weekend and so the last week of August maybe cooler and breezier then normal.
As mentioned in the heading>>>>>>>>>>>>>>The El Nino Beat is a bit stronger today…see CFS’s latest update: Remember, that some of our wettest winters were associated when the QBO was in its westerly phase like it is now and ENSO was at least Weak to Moderate….. SEE: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif This is updated daily and can change as well but the trend has been moving in the direction of at least a Weak El Nino as of late. Weak El Ninos are not as favorable for the Central Sierra as they are for Southern CA, however there has been some wet weak El Ninos in Mammoth as well.
The Dweebs will be keeping an eye on ENSO now through the Fall because of the aforementioned…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………….:-)
Seasonal Temperatures to Rule the High Country the Next 6 days then warmer then normal next week….Expect a Stronger Zephyr along with a few Isolated Thunderstorms Saturday……Perfect Summer Weather to Continue………..
Tuesday August 13, 2013
Posted at 9:15 am by Howard
Although the Westerly’s have picked up strength over the Northern Latts….the weather over Mammoth will trend slowly warmer the next 6 to 10 days. A short wave moving briefly through Ca may kick up some extra wind Saturday along with some unstable air for a few isolated TSRWs and bring a few degrees of cooling. (Saturday Only)
Climo suggests that the temps over Mammoth should be slowly coming down as the days grow shorter. However, the forecast models are trending warmer into next week. The Dweebs expect low 80s to return briefly by Thursday and again next week. Nighttime lows will continue in the 40s.
Prind point…. The ECMWF global model shows a pattern the next 6 to 10 days of slow retrogression and amplification. 1st…retrogression of the continental upper high over the desert southwest then eventually more amplification north through the central great Basin next week. There is also an area of weakness just off the CA coast that is subtropical in nature that may add dynamics and or channeling. This is similar to the pattern we experienced both in June and again in July. Of course this is Mid August now and it is unlikely that heights will get as high. Nevertheless, 8000 ft. high temps will likely get well into the low, possibly mid 80s next week as the upper long wave low in the Gulf of AK retrogrades westward.
Again….The EC is showing another period of Amplification early next week of both the Continental high northward, with the Gulf of AK low as far west as 150W….north of Hawaii. This looks good for another period of air mass modification preceding a surge of Monsoon moisture into at least Southern NV, Southern California and AZ along with dynamics next week. Will keep an eye out of the possibility of this moisture making its way north into the central sierra as well. An easterly wave may develop along the way.
Below is an update from the Climatic Forecast System for the month of December, 2013 for precipitation:
This should wet your whistle…………..:-)
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………:-)
Warming Trend this weekend along with Lighter Breezes by Sunday….Dry Weather Expected through the Middle of Next Week….Perseids Flying High Sunday Night…Then the CFS 1st peak of the Upcoming Winter…
Friday August 9, 2013
Posted at 9:04 am by Howard
Another 2 breezy days ahead then a weaker Zephyr and Warmer Temps. Mammoth should enjoy another 5 to 7 days without precipitation. Aspen Fire is 85% contained…..Next week looking excellent for back county travel……Highs returning to the mid to upper 70s by Tuesday-Wednesday. Lows now in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Don’t forget the Perseids Meteor Shower late this weekend into Monday. Best viewing after midnight and toward the NE.
And now a peak of the latest Climate Forecast Systems long-range outlook for precipitation for the Winter of 2013/2014. Looking better all the time…..