Warmer weather on tap the next few days with light breezes……Interesting pattern begins to develop early next week with energetic southern stream storm track for CA later next week…..

Thursday PM:

Don’t put them boards away just quite yet!

Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a west coast split flow pattern will set up next week. Although the details have yet to be worked out….A long wave Trof will set up over western North America with an Upper Ridge in mean, over Western Canada. The latter is associated with the northern stream. This allows for a strong under cutting pattern (for April). The Southern Stream will enter the west coast over South Central CA. Additionally, the higher early “September like” sun angle will combine with colder aloft for a chilly unstable showery pattern.   The pattern will begin to develop Monday with further development throughout next week.  The pattern may continue right on into May…

Stay tuned for possibly the best precip pattern of the Winter and Spring!

Comment:   Too bad we did not have this pattern in February!  😉

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

After a Chilly Trof Passage this morning the Weather will Remain cool for a few days before rapid warming develops Friday into the weekend….Another System lurking for Next Week!

Cold Windy Weather, typical for April developed overnight with a few snow showers early this morning. Although some locals called it Hail….It was actually Snow Pellets. A type of precipitation common in the Spring.  Strong gusty winds both preceded the upper trof and followed it.  Winds diminished this afternoon in town. Temperatures today were in the 40s and I expect them to remain about the same or a little warmer on Wednesday.

A warming trend will begin Thursday with more rapid warming expected Friday. For the weekend, expect afternoon convection both Saturday and Sunday leading to a slight chance of late afternoon and early evening showers.   Highs over the weekend will be in the low 60s with lows at night mostly in the 20s. Next chance of a weather system and cool down will be about the middle of next week.  More unsettled weather is expected the second half of April as well as the early part of May.



And now Ladies and Gentleman “The EL Nino Hype Begins” !  😉



Warmer Weekend on Tap with a few showers Sunday PM…Then windy and cooler by Late Monday Pm into Tuesday….Thereafter a warm up into the following weekend….

Not much going on weather-wise the next few days. However ,Skiing and Boarding were reportedly very good on the upper slopes yesterday with folks I spoke with late afternoon Friday….

High pressure aloft building in today will set the stage for warmer weather today though Monday PM, then a cold front is expected to move early Tuesday bringing mostly wind and cooling….That will be followed by warmer weather Thursday into the following weekend. I still see the chance for more cooler periods in April with even some snow showers well out into the future. However, no major storms in the extended outlooks.

Climate/Kelvin Wave action

Although the non winter of 2014/15 is drawing to a close, there are very exciting curiosities that are currently on going underneath the Equatorial Pacific. Especially underneath the eastern half, east of the dateline. As mentioned in several previous posts, there is a Kelvin Wave that is currently surfacing over the Eastern EQ pacific. Last year this time there was a lot of reference to the “KW” that was expected to jump-start El Nino, with a lot of Hype to that possibility over the Spring, Summer and Fall. We know now that is not a guarantee of A major warm event as there are other teleconnections that need to happen to keep the ball rolling….    The KW that developed earlier this year looks a bit stronger than last Springs Wave;

See Comparison’s below:

2014-    http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC001/IDYOC001.201404.gif

2015-    http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC001/IDYOC001.201504.gif

Comparing the two structures in the examples in the above links, note the top frames “isotherms”. They appear to be very similar. However this years KW is actually a bit warmer over all if you look at the Isotherms in comparison. The third structure over the bottom is about 2 weeks apart in time, so I will update the next month.  That bottom frame references the Anomaly, and so needs to be the same in time frame.

The Dweebs believe that the latest and may I add strongest in sigma MJO in that phase space, that peaked early in March, most likely initiated strong cyclones on both sides of the equator. They possibly initiated an anomalous period of westerlies along the EQ, west of the Dateline. The prolonged time frame was about 10 days.

Major Kelvin Waves and frequent, strong Westerly Wind Bursts along the Equator over the Western Pacific are the anomalies that “enhance the odds” of a stronger warm ENSO event.

The Current KW that is now surfacing has Isotherms under the sea surface at 150M warmer than  +6C. See:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif       Note:   An update to this will be coming over the next few days and so check it again soon….  SSTA’s are rapidly warming over the Nino 1 and 2 region, and the deeper anomalous warm isotherms will rise into regions 3 to 4 eventually.


Lots to follow the rest of the Spring and Summer over the Equatorial Pacific….


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………….:-)