First its the heat…then its the humidity!…Bishops Heat has Peaked shattering old record of 105 Monday with 109….Now add humidity….Temperatures to slowly drift downward beginning today……
Tuesday July 2, 2013
Posted at 9:03 am by Howard
Dew points were up this morning with mid 40s widespread. Lots of sunshine this morning will guarantee an active TSRW set up for the high county with POPs north of 40% this afternoon and evening for the Mammoth Area. Mammoth had a high of 88 yesterday at the 7700 foot level.
Latest IR shows lots of mid and high level moisture streaming NW from SE California. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the southern most areas of Inyo County at the moment. The moisture is moving our way! Dew points will continue to rise making it feel humid and at the same time making it more difficult to challenge yesterdays high of 109 in Bishop. This is the beginning of the end of the great heat wave of the Central and Southern Great Basin of 2013. One that will go down in the record books as both one of the earliest, strongest and longest heat waves for Eastern California, Western and Southern Nevada.
So expect rain and thunder this afternoon. Heat waves like this usually break with thunderstorms on the back end as the dome of high pressure weakens… it usually does so with a much more unstable air mass. Our air mass is super heated now……add moisture and add the little impulses circulating around the upper high and you get the ingredients for some very good Thunderstorms. At the moment, precipitable water amounts are not excessive, at around in inch…good of some wetting rains. But let’s see what happens tomorrow as the upper high winds down.
Drying is expected to begin Thursday night and by the weekend, a dry SW flow is expected…..Returning our weather to more normal dry conditions with high temps in Mammoth Lakes in the low 80s. and lows in the 40s.
Record Heat for Eastern California Through Tuesday…..Heat Wave may now linger longer next week but not as hot second half….Airmass Modifacation Type High Country Thunderstorm break-out likely Tuesday through Thursday…..
Saturday June 29, 2013
Posted at 8:52 am by Howard
Quick Update Sunday AM:
Temps hit 89 in Mammoth Saturday…a record…
Today is the day to hit 90 degrees! The old records was 83 set back in 2002.
Thunderstorms will increase a bit today over the sierra but may be less Monday.
Thunderstorms will increase Tuesday into Thursday…
This current heat wave will likely be the most intense of the Summer with subsequent heat waves not as prolonged.
We are expecting 80 degree plus temps most of this week, unless we get into good TSRW pattern……..
Sun Mon Tue WED THUR Fri Sat
PTCLDY MOCLDY TSTRMS TSTRMS TSTRMS PTCLDY PTCLDY
/89 55/88 60/88 56/87 55/84 51/82 50/81
/20 20/20 20/40 40/30 30/30 30/20 20/20
It was 70 degrees in Mammoth Saturday morning at 8:45AM!!!!
The Dweebs took a look at both the 00z GFS…06Z GFS and the 12Z run of the EC. All are trending toward prolonging the heat wave the second half of next week. Although it should not be as hot as it is now or will be through this Tuesday. It is possible that Bishop high temperatures will remain at or above 100 now through the end of this week. The big day for the Owens Valley will be Sunday with the high temperatures expected to reach 110, and dependent upon cloud cover…..near 90 in Mammoth Lakes.
Next Update Tuesday Morning. At that time the Dweebs will take a good look at the July Fourth Holiday as far as thunderstorm possibilities and temps. Stay Cool and be happy you live in the high country!
Quick Update Friday Evening:
Strong thunderstorms developed in the Reno Area late this afternoon and to the north of Reno. Hail up to an inch was reported.
The high temperature in Mammoth hit 85 degrees at the village and an estimated 87 in town. It reached 107 in Bishop for a record setting day. The high temperature forecast for Bishop Saturday is 108 and 110 on Sunday then 108 both Monday and Tuesday…all records. The 110 on Sunday if reached will tie the all time record for any day of the year set back on the 10th of July 2002.
MJO: The phase space is interesting in that NCEPs model is stuck in phase space 1 contrary to the ECMWF progressive scenario phase’s 1, 2 then 3. Usually the ECMWF is better in the longer range.
In that NCEPs GFS model is stuck phase 1, the new 00z GFS Saturday 500mb run ”may be beginning” to reflect that as it is hanging on to the heat wave longer later next week but not as hot as it is forecasted through Tuesday. As although, the ridge weakens considerably on the 4th and 5th….it begins strengthening again early the following week. If it turns out that the GFS is correct, Bishop may only have a 3 or 4 days of upper 90s Saturday and Sunday and possibly Monday before high temps begin on the upswing again….well into the 100s. I will take a look at the EC and the 006z run in the morning to see if there is some agreement on the change. So far, no real SE flow develops in the medium range although there has to be an increase in instability by mid week as the top comes off. This is pretty interesting from my stand point of view.
Another interesting point is that that same current MJO phase space location in November, December and January as compared to June, July, August brings the possibility of record cold…..interesting conundrum.
Heat is on across Eastern California and Nevada with Record High Temperatures expected this weekend into early next week…Heat Wave to begin breaking down by Mid Week
Thursday June 27, 2013
Posted at 9:33 am by Howard
The weather charts this morning had no problem pumping 500mb heights over Mammoth to 594DM by 1600UTC. This is just the beginning as heights will Climb to the high 590s and 500-1000mb thicknesses into the mid to upper 580s by early next week. Any high temperatures records in Mammoth will be dependent upon how rapid air-mass modification occurs over the next 5 days. At the moment the peak in the heat is expected Sunday and Monday in general. However, for the high country, many times it is earlier as air mass modification results in high based thunderstorms that will tend to begin in the late afternoon…then occur earlier each day until Thunderstorms begin as early as late morning. During that scenario, daytime highs would be reached in the morning prior to the usual 1:00 to 2:00pm time frame at resort level’s. This results in a stunted daytime high.
So yes….a 90 degree high is certainly possible in Mammoth this weekend. However, temps may be more in the mid to upper 80s then cooling to the 70s as the week goes on next week if the TSRWS get cranking earlier. By Wednesday, the upper high gets stretched north so much that is literally pulls apart and a weakness develops off the Central coast. This would increase divergence over the Sierra for a good old- fashion thunderstorm pattern Wednesday and Thursday, especially if any southeast flow develops. This may compete a little with the Man made fireworks for the holiday.
Stay Cool, stay hydrated, and remember not to leave anything with a hart in a car the next 7 days. Hyperthermia is a killer!