Beautiful late summer days to give way to showers and some thunder early next week…..High temps to cool some 20 degrees by Tuesday before rebounding the second half of next week…

Mammoth continues to enjoy some of the finest Summer weather in years with somewhat above normal heights and light breezes.  Thereafter, the pattern will change to one of being much cooler with showers, TSRWs and possibly a light dusting of snow to the sierra crest Tuesday and into Wednesday AM…..

WX Discussion:

High pressure will remain in control through early Saturday, allowing persistence of the current pattern through the Day. High temps will range in the upper 70s with lows in the 40s. A weak upper low “currently off the Northern Mexican Coast this morning” is moving northwestward. By Saturday night, the system lifts though Central CA, increasing instability for the chance of showers during the afternoon Sunday. These will be mainly diurnally driven. What is more important is that Sundays moisture primes the air mass for the next cooler system dropping out of the Gulf of AK Monday Night.  There will be a build-ups or isolated TSRWs Sunday.  There will be a break Monday,  By Monday night expect an increase of upper forcing again which increases further Tuesday. This goes along with the front left exit region of a 80 knot upper jet being over Mono County by Tuesday PM.   Although the focus is more north of Mono County, Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night.  By Tuesday night a dusting is possible above 9000 to 9500ft.

 

Expect highs in Mammoth on Tuesday in the upper 50s with low of about 30F Wednesday AM

Warmer weather will return Thursday into Friday.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

 

Cool Holiday Weekend with Breezy Weather gives way to more seasonal temperatures by Mid Week…..Early morning lows in the 30s will lift into the 40s later this week….It will be another dry week ahead…..Southern half of Arizona and New Mexico braces for remains of Tropical Storm Newton Mid Week……

Dry upper Trof is now lifting NE away from the Eastern Sierra…..Not before leaving a fall like chill in the air and some frost. High temperatures Sunday were in the low 60s and this morning low was between 32 and 33 degrees near the Village. The official low at the Ranger Station was probably below freezing as the Crestview Station and Bridgeport was in the low to mid 20s. This is certainly the coolest temperatures so far this late summer.  Winds will be lighter the next few day with a warm up to more season levels (low to mid 70s is expected by Wednesday. Upper 70s looks possible again by Thursday and Friday as another beautiful weekend is in store….The Owens Valley near Bishop will have temps climb into the upper 90s by Thursday.

 

Other then the warm up for the high country, the only other weather feature worth mentioning is TS Newton moving NNW up the Sea of Cortez this week. A week ago it looks like there was the chance it might bring substantial rain to Southern California. Today, its remains will mainly affect Southern AZ and New Mexico and parts of the desert southwest…   However, there maybe some chance of thunderstorm action over SE Ca and extreme southern NV, the middle of this week.

Longer Range:

CVSv2 shows a trof of low pressure effecting the Eastern Sierra between the 15th of September and the 21st for the Chance of TS/RWs.  Otherwise temps will remain above normal through months end. The next big change to cooler showery weather according to the Climate Forecast Model is during the first week of October through the 15th.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

 

 

 

 

Beautiful late Summer days through mid week with Fall like Trough deepening south toward the holiday weekend…..The trough will bring breezy and cooler weather…..No precipitation expected at this time….

Thursday AM 9-1-16

The ECMWF from last nights 00z run was cooler again with the upcoming trof. it showed temps Sunday at 5:00PM at 10,000 foot level at 45F degrees, (7C);  by Monday AM cooling to 3C (37F) by Monday AM. These are free air temps. If they verify, we may be looking more in the high 50s to low 60s in Mammoth by Sunday and especially Monday. Will update tomorrow.  As a note the GFS in not a deep with this system.

 

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Flat upper ridge will weaken over the next 5 day as the first fall like trough descends from west of BC, Canada. Although the Models agree on keeping the coldest air up into the Pacific NW now. They still bring a series of short waves that will kick up winds in the 40 to 60 MPH range over the sierra crest and 25 to 35 MPH in town. This will occur periodically beginning Wednesday through Saturday night. The strongest wave comes though Saturday afternoon into the evening followed by the coolest air Sunday AM. Temperatures will cool well down into the 60s for highs by Sunday. The coldest nights in the Valleys are expected Monday AM and Tuesday AM with 20s in several locations. So a nice sensible change in the weather, however, nothing quite as extreme as what was shown last week.

For the most part this is going to bring the first taste of Fall with between 10 and 15 degrees of cooling by Sunday from today’s high temperature of 80.  Night time lows will cool into the 20s in some areas. by weeks end.  The Euro and GFS model has 7C at 10,000 Sunday Morning at Day break.  That is 45 degrees F, free air temperature Sunday AM. 1000-500 MB thickness is about 564DM. Low temps should get down to the low 30s in town by sunrise. Those camping over the higher elevations should still have warmer clothing as qusty winds with temps in the 40s is still quite chilly.

 

Temperatures will warm up again during the next week…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)