Overall….A Very Warm Week Ahead Can be Expected for the Mammoth Area with Today being the Best Day for Thunderstorms…It will be a Slight Bit Cooler Wednesday into Friday with Thunder to make a return next week…….

Wednesday AM:

With the evolving ENSO state…the Dweebs read the latest discussion from the CPC in regards to weeks 1 and 2.  Based upon the current Wheeler Hedon MJO chart, week 2 shows an emergence of amplitude in the Maritime Continent region suggestive of a weak negative height anomaly over the Pacific Northwest and weak trofing off the CA Coast.  While the GFS week two 500mb heights in the mean hints of this. From the Sierra east, through the great basin shows nothing but above normal temps.  In fact the ECMWF 500mb heights has the continental subtropical high parked more over the Far west with scorching heat for CA with an easterly wave in its underbelly headed for the west coast of Baja later “Week 2″.   From an El Nino-ENSO summer stand point of view, to date, the Dweebs do not see the typical signs anymore of the expected air sea coupling that would promote the cool periods associated with west coast trofing and a displaced eastward, Continental upper high. So the stage is set for both a very hot summer out west, waiting for the other shoe to drop for an enhanced shot of Monsoon moisture and dynamics later next week.

ENSO:  While Nino regions 1 and 2 show strong positive anomalous SSTA’s, as well as subsurface temps,  the Central Pacific is stuck with SSTA’s of only + .05C, barely the threshold of EL Nino. Earlier in the year….A strong Kelvin Wave moved east across the equatorial pacific last winter-Spring, providing warmth to the Nino Basin, its upwelling rear has cooled the subsurface ocean temps in the central pacific region, putting the kibosh on any further warming. “If” another strong Kelvin Wave does not replenish the subsurface heat within the Nino Basin between now and the Fall, you can most likely kiss the wet effects of EL Nino for interior, central and northern CA.   However, Southern CA may still be wet…..  The El Nino would thus be a Modoki type ending up with weakly warm SSTA’s in the central pacific and a cooling eastern tropical pacific.  That kind of winter is known for west coast “Split-flow” patterns.

There is still time for another Strong Kelvin wave to come east…lets keep our fingers crossed!…..

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Tuesday PM Update:

Mono Zephyr began earlier then expected today with best Mono County surface convergence well east of Highway 395. Mammoth will now enjoy more afternoon breezes along with slightly cooler daytime highs. A drier air mass in now in place as well. Very pleasant weather will continue with daytime highs in the low 80s cooling to the upper 70s by July 4th. The heat is on again by the end of holiday weekend along with a threat of thunderstorms as early as Sunday…..  More later as SE flow lurking next week….

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July 1st Climo wise,  begins a period that is considered the warmest two weeks of the year in Mammoth…..especially up until the 11th. This is because south to south east flow usually has not yet established itself in this region. SE flow contains the ingredients for a greater thunderstorm potential. So unlike like today’s Thunderstorms that are expected, which are high based and are more the result of strong heating of the elevated heat source of the sierra and the shifting area of surface convergence.  Next weeks storms will likely be more associated with the far western flank of the AZ monsoon.

Climo wise, as the continental subtropical high sets up in the Four corners area, odds will increase for the return of South East flow, as we move in time from the 1st week of July to the 2nd. week.  By the end of the 2nd week of July, the western edge of the AZ monsoon should be into full swing bringing both mid level moisture advection as well as the more significant spokes of dynamics. The heat generated early in the month of July will often times help set the stage for when the south east flow returns for greater instability. Especially when thermal trof is anchored just to the West of the Sierra Crest. So in conclusion…..watch out for next week thunderstorm wise…..

 

Current forecast discussion:

Today Upper Air analysis showed the upper highs axis over Eastern CA. The upper high has peaked in building….a weak trof is approaching the pacific NW.  A small Vt Center has developed on the Northern CA coast between the approaching trof and the upper high over head. Although this small feature will not directly effect us, there will be some slight cooling in the upper levels enough to increase laps rates today with increasing instability. So today is that transition day that thunderstorms will form with lighting and some rain as the lid comes off our local air mass.  Tomorrow will be a slightly cooler, more stable day air-mass wise, with an increasing afternoon and early evening zephyr into the days ahead.

Expect about 5 to 7 degrees of cooling over the next 4 days. A new warm up will begin next Sunday in the high country with the possibility of southeast flow beginning as early next week…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

 

 

 

 

Models Yo-Yo back to a warmer weekend….still no sustained southerly or southeast flow in our outlook….So any heat related Thunderstorms will be isolated next week…….

Thursday AM….

Surprise!  Badly needed rains are falling in Mammoth Lakes.  The short wave trof decided to come in further south than the models had predicted. The trof picked up on a subtropical plume located well North and west of Hawaii early this week. The plume was expected to only effect Northern Ca northward where rains have dumped over a half an inch already in the Northern Sierra. Looking at the ECMWF Model….This may be the beginnings of an EL Nino Summer where by the summer will be affected by an active upper jet during the Summer season.  What we need to watch for is alternating periods of heat then cool downs with wind. This late June trof may-be just one of several summer trofs that will lead up into a very exciting winter!

 

The weather still looks very warm over the weekend and into early next week with highs in the 80s in Mammoth and into the 100s for the Owens Valley….

 

Stay tuned…..The Dweebs see more Trofs rolling in This July……

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….:-)

 

 

Wednesday Update:

This will be brief…..Wind advisories this afternoon for area boaters…Be off the larger lakes by 12:00PM….Wind gusts 40mph to as strong as 50mph in the windier areas are expected this PM

Red Flag Warning same time period for critical fire conditions.

High today 74 tomorrow 64. It will continue to be breezy Thursday but the humidly will recover…

 

Brief statement about the confusing relationship of the MJO to the Kelvin Wave,

Again it is Atmospheric teleconnections>>>>MJO>>>>Kelvin Wave.    The Kelvin wave does not initiate the MJO according to Jon Gottschalck of the CPC.

 

Longer Range:   New 12z GFS 6/25/2014 has 1st strong indication of SE flow developing Monday PM into that week.  (Thunderstorm Pattern)

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

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With a trof headed for the coast Wednesday, it is now noted that its track has decidedly taken a position further to the north, along with best moisture to the north as well. So the idea of any showers this far south is no longer in the forecast. However, with that said, the winds will still be an issue, as strong thermally induced winds will develop Wednesday with added support into the night and into the early morning hours Thursday by the upper jet. Thus….This will be a protracted wind event for the high country that will begin during the late morning Wednesday and continue through the night Wednesday night and even into Thursday. By Thursday, it will be cooler with our air mass containing more humidity.  From a fire danger point of view, the most critical conditions will be from early Wednesday afternoon through about Midnight. Thursday will be cooler by about 10 degrees so daytime highs will be in the upper 60s.

Weekend Outlook:

For what ever reasons….the models have flipped back to a warmer weekend; an idea of earlier model runs. Temperatures will surge some 15+ over Thursdays highs by Sunday.  That will bring Mammoth its first uncomfortable weekend for locals not used to mid 80 degree heat by Sunday and into Monday.

Longer Range….

The heat really builds over the west the first several days of July. It sill looks apparent that the AZ Monsoon will be delayed into Eastern California.  Although the longer range initiates SE flow into AZ around the 4th of July…..it has difficulty pushing it WNW into Nevada, let alone Eastern CA. So it appears that in the meantime, any thunderstorms will be isolated, and with enough periodic SW flow,  our local air mass looks pretty stable for the time being….  When that changes…the Dweebs will let you know….

 

Down Under……

Lots of folks like to draw the conclusion that the winters of the Australian Alps and the Sierra are linked.   I personally do not believe that is true.  However, lets start the rumor mill going just for fun, with the notion that there may be some truth to that.

Check out the story at the following link….   http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-ideas/best-snowfalls-in-a-decade-forecast-for-eastern-australia-strap-yourselves-in-for-the-megablizzard/story-e6frfqdr-1226963855196

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

 

Back peddeling going on now with the idea of above normal temps in early July……Gulf of AK Upper Low Anomalously strong will feed a series of short wave trofs to the west coast….bringing more wind to the high country later in the upcoming week and beyond. There is even the possibility of showers related to FROPA moving in from the pacific Thursday……Stay tuned…….

What happening???   Week 1 and 2 models all have a pretty good storm hitting the west coast later this upcoming week and another the following week.  The results will be some significant periods of wind for the high country beginning this Wednesday, a chance of showers and cooling for Thursday.

In an earlier discussion a few weeks ago, the Dweebs highlighted what an ENSO Forced Summer might look like:

1. Anomalous Trofing along the west coast.

2. The tendency for the Summer to be a both Cooler and Windier than normal with warmest weather occurring later in July.

3. The Summer Continental High position displaced further east of climatology.

4. Less Thunderstorm activity.

So the effect of ENSO may be beginning to show up in the models now.

With that all said….it does appear from the current standpoint of view that unless a major change occurs, this El Niño is not going to be anything close to a Super Nino. In fact, there has been cooling in the Nino region 4 and 3,4 area for the past several weeks.  What were seeing is a wimpy Nino!  Will there be another strong Kelvin Wave that will rejuvenate the Nino Basin with warmth?  No one really knows thus far.  Nevertheless…..there may be some air-sea coupling resembling what we might expect here along the west coast with an El Nino Summer……IE Breezy….cooler then normal and less heat related TSRWs…. with the Mono County Convergence zone displaced further east.

Winter and ENSO:

With a weakening of the +SSTA’s in NINO 3.4 and 4 region’s, Most scientist’s will not be going out on a limb on next winter until they see what is happening next Fall.  With that said,  we can still get a good winter even in a weak to moderate El Nino here in California.. However….. it tends to favor the Southern Part of the state even more. There tends to be a lot of split flow waves and systems headed down the coast.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)