Cooler Windy Weather Returns to the High Country….Some Snow Showers possible Late Tuesday Night into Wednesday AM…It will be dry and warmer over the weekend……Westerlies break through lurking by Months End…..

 

Monday Night:

A Zonal Flow will give way to a Northwesterly flow aloft mid-week, as heights rise out at about 140 West. This is a cooler and initially windy pattern, until about the Weekend when the upper ridge builds into California and really amplifies northward the following week’  It will be at that time that forecasters will have to pay special attention to the possibility of the westerlies undercutting the upper ridge about a week from this Wednesday.  What the Dweebs like about this possibility is that the MJO moves into phase space 7 then 8 over the next week which supports the Eastern Extension of the Asian Jet to the west coast. A hint may come beforehand as we may hear about reports of heavy rains over the Hawaiian Islands early next week.

The ECMWF shows the break through well and paints up to 9 inches of water over the South Central Sierra on tonight’s 00z Tuesday Run. That would be quite the wet pattern for California.

Until then…….Nothing major out there but some windy/breezy WX along with the cooling……

Caveat:

This forward thinking long-range chatter is not a forecast. The winter has been dry and the persistence of the dry pattern is usually the most likely scenario in a year like this one. However, the Dweebs will also give you “Maverick Thinking”. It is what we do that is most enjoyable. So take it with a grain of thought…..And while Mother Nature plays out her game. It is the Bottom of the 6th inning with three left to score. Lets hope she scores big at the top of the 7th as we go into the first week of March.

 

As usual……………..Stay tuned……

The Dweeber…………………..;-)

 

Mother Nature Back Peddling now on Storm for Next week……Snowfall Yes…..Major Amounts now Very Doubtful……..

Monday Night:

A Zonal Flow will give way to a Northwesterly flow aloft mid-week, as heights rise out at about 138 West. This is a cooler and initially windy pattern, until about the Weekend as the upper ridge builds into California and really amplifies northward the following week’  It will be at that time that forecasters will have to pay special attention to the possibility of the westerlies undercutting the upper ridge about a week from this Wednesday.  What the Dweebs like about this possibility is that the MJO moves into phase space 7 then 8 over the next week which supports the Eastern Extension of the Asian Jet to the west coast. A hint may come beforehand as we may hear about report of heavy rains over the Hawaiian Islands later this week or early next week.

The ECMWF shows the break through well and paints up to 9 inches of water over the South Central Sierra on tonight’s 00z Tuesday Run. That would be quite the wet pattern for California.

Until then…….Nothing major out there but some windy/breezy WX along with the cooling……

Caveat:

This forward thinking long-range chatter is not a forecast. The winter has been dry and the persistence of the dry pattern is usually the most likely scenario in a year like this one. However, the Dweebs will also give you “Maverick Thinking”. It is what we do that is most enjoyable. So take it with a grain of thought…..And while Mother Nature plays out her game. It is the Bottom of the 6th inning with three left to score. Lets hope she scores big at the top of the 7th as we go into the first week of March.

 

As usual……………..Stay tuned……

The Dweeber…………………..;-)

 

Saturday AM:

A word about the wind event later today…..The NWS has a lot of emphasis on high winds over Mono County later today and tonight.  This upper jet in a WSW orientation is not usually conducive to super high winds in the Town of Mammoth. However areas like Crowley Lake…communities south and then areas north along the highway 395 corridor can get very strong winds from this direction like Lee Vinning, Bridgeport, Walker and Coleville . Here in Mammoth it will be windy over the upper elevations today and very windy late this afternoon and into the night. This winds should begin to diminish during the morning hours Sunday. Wind Gusts 50 to 60mph are possible…however the 70 to 80+mph gusts are reserved for the highway 395 corridor and the communities that are located very nearby. Residents of Mono County should prepare now by securing Hot tub covers and items that may get blown around.

As far as snowfall goes, only a few inches is expected later tonight into early Sunday AM. The Outlook for next week looks colder with periods of snow showers and periods of strong winds throughout the week. Significant snowfall is not expected….

Of Interest:

The all-time record for ice coverage of all the Great Lakes is 94.7 percent reached in 1979. That record is currently tied with a few more weeks to go for the ice to accumulate for that area.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

 

Over the past 48 hours both EC and GFS have been both back peddling on the mid-week storm that looked so promising just a few days ago. The Large Scale Upper Low in the Gulf of AK progresses east up to near 140W then retrogrades westward forcing height rises over the far west. This is the same thing that has happened so many times this past winter,  and is one the signatures of drought over parts of the west. Yes the Dweebs were a bit Zealous about Fundamental changes to the winter pattern.

We are still in for light amounts of snowfall Saturday night and Sunday AM as the westerly’s with a branch of the subtropical jet sags south to Central CA Sunday AM. I do not expect much more than a few inches from that system…possibly a bit more over the crest as is usually the case as the upper flow will be natural to the Sierra for a short period of time.

More importantly, it appears that we are transiting to a drier pattern with the eastern pacific ridge setting up at around 140W to 145W then progressing to 130W later in the month. Depending upon how amplified it is, will determine whether we get any precip or not.  The upper flow will thus be predominantly Northwesterly which is typically a cooler windy pattern with the chance of snow showers from time to time. As the short waves drop their precipitation over Northern CA northward, we get what is left. Usually a few inches of snow from time to time.  The latest QPF from the CRFC (Subject to change) is for .15 for Yosemite between Monday and Thursday AM.  This equates to 1 to 3 inches of snowfall.  So the mid-week storm is now primarily snow showers. There is a lot of amplification expected Thursday into Thursday night. It look like a very windy day Thursday if the Proggs are correct The nose of a 130 Knot upper jet will sweep across Northern California bringing strong winds and snow showers…..according to today 12z GFS.

 

Over all we are in for a patter the rest of the month that will become colder than normal and somewhat drier then normal. The 8 to 10 day outlook shows the Eastern pacific ridge progressing to 130 west the last week of February which is dry with slightly above normal temps…..

This is all a big change to earlier thinking, however, it should not be all that much of a surprise in a year like this one.

 

For what ever it’s worth, the climate models today show normal precipitation the first week of March and wetter than normal conditions the 2nd week of March. However…..the over all consensus is that March will be warmer and drier than normal according to the climate forecast system.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Dweeber………………………………..:-)

High level Cloudiness Will Continue to Spill Over the Upper Ridge into Eastern CA…….It will be warmer today and about the same Friday….Upper Jet Sags South Saturday with High Winds expected Saturday PM

A beautiful day is expected throughout Eastern Ca with warmer temps and breezy conditions over the higher elevations. Highs in Mammoth will be in the mid to upper 50s the next two days with high clouds and strong breezy conditions over the upper elevations at times. There continues to be an impressive upper subtropical jet coming out of the Central Pac into the Pacific NW. This jet will sag south with time into the Central Sierra Saturday/night with a potential High Wind Event, Saturday PM for Mono County.

The hose that is currently pointed at the Pacific NE will slowly shift south and weaken to a trickle by the time it reaches the Mammoth area. Nevertheless…we may end up with a few inches of snowfall Saturday Night and Sunday AM. A bit more could occur over the crest as usual with orographic’s. At this time I do not expect any more then 3 to 6 over the crest by noon Sunday.

The Dweebs are all over the storm expected the middle of next week. Looking at the GFS guidance, there is still a tropical connection, however its continuity to the west coast will get blocked later next week as mid latitude short wave ridging sets up in-between Hawaii and the northwest. So the hose has a block put in front of it and the water gets squirted directly into the westerly’s behind the upstream ridge.  This may have the effect of prolonging the precip event in the northwest flow following the main short wave a week away. that is if the short wave ridge is not too amped. Although it is too far off to get excited about major amounts,  I would not be surprised to see a foot or two the second half of next week, or more if the storms lingers over the far west like some of the longer range models are hinting at. So to be clear, this is a tap of Subtropical moisture Tuesday into Wednesday, but thereafter it gets cut off by the Cold front later Wednesday PM.

There has been a change in the depth of the long wave trof over the far eastern pacific the past few days as the pattern in general is more dampened with less amplification. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues, or if it reverts back to being more amplified with a deeper long wave trof over the far Eastern Pac. It will not take much of that to happen height wise, to effect Mammoth. Unfortunately for the Southern CA area, this does not appear to be a major storm for you folks.  More later…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)