Partly Cloudy Unsettled Weather to give way to Sunshine and Warmer Temperatures Friday well into Mid-Week as Pattern Shift gives California a Dry Spell through at least mid-month…….
Tuesday February 2, 2016
Posted at 12:59 pm by Howard
Tuesday AM Update:
Only comments to the forecast is in the outlook. The Dweebs had a look at the reanalysis charts and focused on February of 1951 in which a similar upper ridge developed for a week, bringing record high temps to many areas of CA. The Record for Bishop is 78 degree for the 10th of February in that year. I think that it is likely that Bishop will break into the 70s early next week for the first time this year. Mammoth in the upper 50s is possible.
To our west, Super Sunday will be in the process of a rapid warm up along the coast with 1000/500mb thickness expected well into the mid to high 560’s DM by Monday and Tuesday. Some areas in the SE Bay Area may break into the low 80s early next week with SFO possibly breaking 70 by Monday or Tuesday next week.
The February thaw will last about a week with a change back to an active pattern, around or shortly after mid-month. That is due to the southern stream, as it resumes its promise in keeping the western hemispheric pattern progressive this winter. (See Comments below, (Regarding the MJO)
It continues to be cold in Mammoth with the high temperature yesterday 18 degrees at the FS office, then an overnight low of -7 this morning. Today it will warm to the mid 20s! For those that are uncomfortable with temps this cold, the weekend will be much milder with highs in the mid to upper 40s Saturday and lower 50s Sunday and Monday. It should be an epic weekend with little in the way of any wind except over the crest with NE flow. Lows at night will be in the 20s.
Upper heights will rise in response to the existing trough over the inter mountain west exiting. An inside slider, or “impulse on the storm track” will move through today bringing snow showers and breezy weather over the upper elevations. The upper west coast ridge begins to build Wednesday. However another weakening system comes through and spreads mainly warm air advection over our region for another chance of snow showers Wednesday night. The Dweebs are not expecting much more than a trace of to an inch of snow from either system.
The Big picture indicates that an omega block will develop with the focus of the west coast ridge parked over CA Sunday and over the Great Basin into early next week. The brings cold weather to the SE CONUS as short waves drop out of the upper Midwest early next week and plummet south to the South East. In fact the northern or central part of the state of Florida may have a significant freeze. This looks to happen about the 10th through 12th of Feb.. Will another Nor Easter spin up later next week around the 8th-9th?….Will see.
Last time it did we got a storm 10 days later……
According to the EURO, the MJO is forecasted to become quite strong again emerging over the western portion of the Maritime Continent and strengthening over the Eastern Maritime continent with further strengthening over the Western Pacific, late week 2. The positive phase of the PNA should either block or weaken storms approaching California Through at least next week. The ECMWF did an excellent job with the last MJO rotation through the phase spaces. So the Dweebs are bullish that it will work out well again.
Here is the trend;
- Weak MJO (Tropical Forcing) Emerges this week in Phase 4 through the 8th of Feb. (Ridge building along the west coast with the establishment of the Omega Block by this Sunday/Monday)
- Strengthening occurs in phase space 5 and 6 and remains strong into phase 7.
- Toward the end of week 3, the ECMWF has the MJO forecasted to move from early into phase space 7 then into 8. That is when the return of the true El Nino forcing is expected. Mark your calendar for the week ending toward the 18th of February through the first of March. This looks to be a very active 2 week period. It do hope it includes Southern CA as well.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)
Cold Northerly Flow will continue through tonight with upslope cloudiness and a few flurries or snow showers Monday…..An Inside slider will bring the chance of snow showers Tuesday and weak system late Wednesday before the off shore ridge builds along the coast Friday into the weekend….It will be milder over the weekend….
Monday February 1, 2016
Posted at 9:05 am by Howard
The Weekend Storm brought over two feet to the Village at Mammoth last weekend and between 3 and 4.5 feet to Mammoth Mountain. Today’s weathers is highlighted by the exiting storm over the Great Basin into the Central Rockies and a highly amplified upper ridge off shore providing a North South gradient to eastern California. As the Dweebs have always mentioned, The lower elevations of Mammoth are not subject to strong or even moderate Northerly Winds. So it will be a little breezy today in town and cold! The high temperature forecast at the Village at Mammoth is 20 degrees. It will not be much warmer Tuesday with a temperature forecast of 25. Expect about 10 degrees of warming by Wednesday and the upper ridge weakens a bit due to a system mobbing through the ridge. Lows at night will be 0 to 6 degrees by Early Tuesday AM.
I picked up here at the Village, a good 2.5 feet storm total from the weekend storm. Mammoth Mt indicated that between 3 and 4.5 feet fell as well. The Mountains base depth is now close to between 9 and 14 feet.
Mondays forecast shows a drying trend with northerly flow and thus an upslope component bringing clouds for the first half of today along the eastern slopes. For today Monday, expect a few flurries over the upper elevations with no measurable precipitation expected. There will be 2 weak impulses the first half of this week. One Tuesday and the other later Wednesday. Snow showers my occur with each of them. However, only light accumulations with a (Trace to 2″) expected….
Thursday, a new weather pattern will begin to develop. One with dry weather that will last for a week or longer….
The outlook for the Super Bowl weekend is for highs in the mid 40s…lows 15 to 25 with dry weather and light North Easterly flow over the lower slopes..
As we move out in time into the following week (Week 2), the west coast ridge punches up into the Arctic with another Arctic high coupled to this system. The thing that is interesting is that the AO in the EC and GFS ensembles remain mostly positive and so (no long term blocking is expected as no strong persistent -AO or -NAO develops. The 21 day cycle suggests otherwise and that would usually give the west a pretty much dry February or at the least for 3 weeks (21 day cycle). But the Dweebs are Poo- Pooing that for the time being… Although, a cold trof develops over the Eastern CONUS the 8th-9th of February forming an Omega Block over the western hemisphere, the lack of a -AO -NAO allows the pattern to be progressive and so that by mid month, the Eastern Trof gets flushed out over the Atlantic, once again opening up the wavelength, allowing the west coast ridge to break down toward mid month, initiating a new possible storm cycle for CA.
So the screaming message is…..Enjoy the next week to 10 days out with out a “major storm” IE (1 to 2 feet) as it is highly unlikely…
Then expect a change in the pattern around or toward mid-month (Feb)
PS. mild Santa Ana for So Cal weekend into early next week with mid 70s or even low 80s possible..
Sundays Super Bowl Weather will be super as well with highs in the low 70s!…
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………..:-)
Snowfall to Continue Today and Tonight for the Eastern Sierra, Mono County and the Owens Valley…. Winter Storm Warning is in effect thru 4:00AM Monday….
Sunday January 31, 2016
Posted at 9:13 am by Howard
Platinum Powder Alert for Tonight for snowfall Ratios 18:1 with up to a Foot on Mammoth Mtn over night…..Tonopah Low to remain stationary through 2:00AM Monday morning before ejecting NE toward Utah….Snowfall rates 1 to 2 inches an hour tonight…
Storm total on Mammoth Mtn 3 to 5 feet by Morning…..
A Blizzard Warning is in effect for Mono County tonight for strong “Northerly Flow”. Mammoth is protected from strong Northerly Flow. The Dweebs expected gusts to 30 MPH tonight in town. However, areas along the highway 395 corridor and east will have gusts to 50 mph with white-out conditions developing over night. Travel along Highway 395 will become quite dangerous tonight heading North/South.
At the moment, we have a break in the snowfall. However, snowfall rates will pick up again tonight as upper flow responds to a deepening Tonopah Low over Nevada.
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. VISIBILITY DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR… DO NOT TRAVEL TONIGHT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR……
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ABOUT ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AM.
This has been one complex storm system with just about everything a Dweeb could ask for.
- An Atmospheric River
- A Wave on the front
- A Quasi Tonopah Low
- And now a Deformation Zone that has recently become more north-south orientated…Instead of east-west…
The Dweebs have commented about the possibility of snow in the Owens Valley from this pattern and snow began falling at 7:00am in Bishop… Snowfall in Bishop on the valley floor is one of the more challenging aspects of forecasting in that area.
Now to address the current situation….
Forecasts up to this point were based upon more of the storm associated with the wave moving on shore over Southern CA. This is pretty much a windless pattern for our area, at least for the lower elevations here in Mammoth. This is a pattern absent from any orographic’s. So snowfall amounts will not be very much if any different from what Mammoth Mt gets today and tonight.
Now with the deformation axis rotating to a more North-South Axis, moderate to possibly heavy snow at times can develop along that axis through at least noon today with lesser amounts later today and tonight. A Tonopah low is most likely involved some how in the orientation of this development. What this also means is that areas that are usually shadowed out from a lot of snow or rainfall will get it this morning and into the evening. This includes the Owens Valley and Western Nevada. The upper flow now is South to North right up the Sierra and the Owens Valley today. Forecast models suggest any ware from 2 to 4 inches on the valley floor and up to 8 inches within elevations 500 feet above the valley floor though tonight. The main point here is that if you are traveling south today, best to get an earlier start as it may be a longer trip home….Carry Tire Chains….
For Mammoth Lakes we are expecting another 6 to 12 inches…Between the Town and to the top of Mammoth Mountain by Monday AM.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)