Winter to go out like Spring and Spring to come in like Winter! Don’t give up on more snowfall for the Eastern Sierra Just yet…..April should bring plenty!
Friday March 18, 2016
Posted at 10:05 am by Howard
Wind Advisories are hoisted for travelers today for both Mono and Inyo County’s beginning at 11:00AM
The first of two cold fronts are moving through Central CA bringing mainly wind and cooling. Some light snow shower action may happen this afternoon, however, the main snowfall potential will be with the 2nd cold front beginning this evening into Tuesday AM. Tuesday’s weather will be highlighted by the storms cold core with cold snow showery weather expected. The storm is highlighted by a lot of wind as it is moving into antecedent conditions which were well above normal in temperatures yesterday. As an example…Bishop reached 81 degrees on Sunday. The average high is 65 degrees and so the high was 16 degree above normal. It will be very breezy today, windy on Mammoth Mt. with highs in town in the high 40s Monday then upper 30s on Tuesday. I expect 1 to 3 inches at the village of Mammoth by Tuesday PM and 3 to 5 inches on Mammoth Mt the sometime.
The Weather will calm down by Midweek with lighter breezes and high temps returning to the mid 50s by Thursday.
The next round of unsettled weather is expected next Monday….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….:-)
The Dweebs have taken their good sweet time in updating over the past couple of days because they have not trusted this storm. And accordingly…this system looks pretty wimpy now over Southern Mono County. The quantitative precip forecast CRFC is for .30 inches of water over the Yosemite valley and that means for us “somewhere between” an inch on highway 395 near KMMH and up to 6 inches over the crest from this storm. So you get the picture…there may not be much of a plow….Just cinders for some ice, once the pavement melts up to an inch or two. What this storm gives up in precip it will make up in wind. Today will be a day of light breezes over the lower slopes and breezy over the crest as the Dweebs do not expect much more than 30 to 40 MPH gusts over the top until later today. Winds will ramp up early Sunday with gusts in the 40 to 80 MPH range over the upper elevations and Monday will be even windier with gusts to 105MPH over the crest. Winds will diminish some Tuesday….
Highs today on the mountain will climb to the 50s with low to mid 60s in town. I expect little in the way of breeze in town today until the Mid PM…
The rest of the week’s winds will alternate with breezy weather and days with much lighter breezes. Highs in town will climb to the mid 50s by Thursday.
There is some suggestion of increased amplification and retrogression next weekend and so the next chance for cooling, winds and showers may come by next Sunday night or Monday the 28th….. (This is iffy!)
In the longer range I am getting conflicting signals…at least for the first week of April. The Climate Models are telling that we have some good storms in April (30 Day) outlook. However, The MJO is diving into the circle of death before it reaches Phase 8. This is not a good sign for any significant undercutting of the westerlies…at least from an MJO forecast bases. However, with that said, the MJO plays a less significant role in week 2 and 3 forecasts by April. By April, other teleconnections come into play which can force undercutting or at the least, drop systems down the coast giving the southern half of the state extra precip.
One thing is for sure, the easy days of winter forecasting are over because of the time of year we are coming into….
If you have not heard by now, there is a La Nina brewing for next Winter. ENSO is expected to be at least in neutral mode by this Summer, then in negative territory by the Fall. If you believe in the Scripps forecast model, a Major La Nina is in the offering. (-2.5C) However a blend of all the models show a weak La Nina which would be best from a climate forecast point of view associated with the highest probability of major AR events; IE (pineapple connections) for the central west coast between Dec and March. However, at the moment, mother nature is still adding her ingredients to the mixing bowl and has not even turned on the Oven for baking yet.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)
Upper ridge building and upper jet headed further north….Dry weather expected through Sunday…..Chance of a moderate storm Monday…..
Tuesday March 15, 2016
Posted at 1:45 pm by Howard
Upper level winds continue to diminish as the upper jet now over Oregon, lifts north into Canada by Friday. Although a short wave Trof may bring some high clouds later today and a slight increase of wind over the Crest….The upper jet will be too far to the north by Wednesday and Thursday for any significant wind. Strong subsidence will develop Later Thursday into Friday for strong warming for the last few days of Winter. I expect low 60s by Friday and low to possibly mid 60s by Saturday. Bishop will hit low 80s for the first time over the weekend. Night time lows in Mammoth will still remain below freezing….
ENSO: El Nino Southern Oscillation
I just had a peak at the SOI and the daily contribution today was +17.47. The reason? The convective Envelope of the MJO is over the Maritime Continent north of Australia. This is likely to aid in a more rapid cooling of the El NINO basin by strong upwelling due to the enhanced trades. A more rapid demise of El Nino may be reflected in the NINO numbers in the coming weeks. SEE: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/index.php “Destructive Interference” is also in play with MJO and ENSO.
Looking at the MJO Phase space, it is evident that the MJO will be translating through Phases, 4, 5, 6 and 7 over the next 2 weeks. There is a window within the next week or so for a storm to get in here. The global models have one next Monday. However, once the MJO gets into phase 6, 7 and early 8, it is ridge city through the end of the month and possibly into early April. SEE: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
If the MJO is strong enough in late phase 8, we may see one more run of undercutting of the westerlies with the extended EAJ. But later in April, the MJO weakens significantly climatically.
As an interseasonal outlook using the MJO, we have one more storm this month next week, before we ridge up during the first week of Spring into early April.
A Fair Weather Upper Ridge develops by Mid Week….Expect an end to the Windy Weather for a 5 day period….Upper Jet Makes a return to Northern CA by Sunday Night……The forecast for Mammoth includes a dry period beginning Tuesday through the end of this week….
Monday March 14, 2016
Posted at 9:01 am by Howard
As the East Asian Jet retreats….strong height rises continue to be expected this week for California, as the upper jet lifts north into Canada by Mid-Week. Upper level winds will be very light by Wednesday and subsidence will warm daytime highs over Mammoth to near 60 by Saturday. By Sunday, the pattern becomes a bit progressive again and the upper jet makes a return to the NW coast for more upper level wind next Sunday PM into the following Monday a full week away. Looking at the week 2 progs, the next weather system arrives next Sunday night into the following Monday. That system is targeted mainly to the north of us. However, we may get some showers. The main message this morning according to the 500mb ensembles from both the ECMWF and the GFS is that a fair weather ridge will remain over the central west coast more often than not……Well into the end of March. However with that said, the deterministic 06z run of the GFS was much more encouraging for more precip with a specific storm the last week of March.
From a Climo point of view, we are getting into that time of the year where the models become more fickle and are not as reliable during the week 2 time frame….
By the end of March and beginning of April, the upper jet is in a weakening process as the days are longer and polar nights much shorter…..
”Dr Howard and the Dweebs”…………………….:-)