1st Platinum Powder Alert For Monday Night!……..12 inches of 15:1 expected at and above 10,000 feet by Tuesday Morning……..
Sunday November 8, 2015
Posted at 10:37 am by Howard
Never Trust a Storm!
However if a storm is going to weaken and then strengthen with the possibilities of more snowfall, we (The Dweebs) like it!
Latest model trends show a deeper, colder and slightly further west tracking system with the same idea as yesterday in bringing in a classic system capable of moderate snowfall amounts. There will be a weather front with snowfall ratios of 10 to 1 late tonight into Monday AM followed by a colder more convective portion with heavier accumulations Monday night. Snow to water ratios of between 15:1 at 10,000 feet and up to 18:1 are expected over the crest. With the QPF amounts additionally .6 to .75 in that colder portion; the PPQ qualifier of a foot appears attainable between 4:00PM Monday and Midnight Monday night. Storm total is possibly 18 inches at and above 10K.
This looks to be a two plow storm for the Snow Pushers…..
Weak Ridging will bring a Minor Warm-up over the high country the next few days…..Sunday Night Monday System Trending Drier than earlier predictions….
Friday November 6, 2015
Posted at 3:38 pm by Howard
Looking at 00z runs Upper Trof and weather front are now as comparable as it looked 3 to 4 days ago. In fact the moisture plum looks a little juicier. So 7 to 12 inches with some areas as much as 15 inches over the crest at 12:1 to 13:1 at 10K and above. This snow will be nice and light! Good powder skiing Monday afternoon. The Town will get 3 to 6+ inches between Sunday night and Monday PM
Western Hemispheric pattern remains very progressive! No Eastern Pacific Blocking! New QPF still hangs on to this mornings update with close to an Inch. Snow to start Sunday night with snow likely By Midnight…. Forecast amounts in forecast discussion below still look good….
Saturday AM update:
it did not make much sense updating yesterday in that models trended drier with the storm for Sunday night and Monday. This mornings update raises hope that amounts “Maybe” more inline with earlier forecasts. Looking at the new 12z Saturday WRF/NGM it is becoming more obvious that this storm will have two parts. The Front that will come in Sunday night, and a VT max with the upper trof itself. The first part of the storm would bring up to 5 or 6 inches over the upper elevations by Monday AM. The 2nd part of the storm seems to be lagging some 6 to 12 hours behind. This second part is quite convective and “if” it come in like the WRF shows, it may bring another 3 to 6 inches as well. Convective systems are more difficult to forecast as they are associated with smaller scale areas of precipitation. This means that areas that are a few miles away from heavier areas of precipitation could be much drier. For what it is worth, latest WRF QPF for our area is now up to close to an inch. Translate that to snowfall , and considering the temperature’s, it is close to a foot over Mammoth Mt by early Tuesday AM.
The Dweebs will update Sunday morning…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………..:-)
Its been called the best start to the ski season in 5 years! 12 to 30 inches at 3:00PM Tuesday…more light snowfall tonight!
Monday November 2, 2015
Posted at 5:52 pm by Howard
Main focus is now the late Sunday though Monday night system. As indicated earlier, this system looks to be a light to at most moderate precip producer. QPF Amounts forecasted are between .30 and .50 on the west side. There will be an orographic component and so the combination of the temperature of the air mass, IE Snow to water ratio’s); QPF and Orographic’s may still be enough to drop 5 to 10 inches over the upper elevations and that may be pushing it.. The snow that falls with be light and fluffy but not making Platinum criteria. (15 to 1 with a foot or better).
In town it will be all snow, contrary to the last storm, 2 to 5 inches is possible.
Thursday 1:00PM Update:
Lots of smiling faces around with ski conditions rated by locals as very good! Lifts Chair 3, Broadway and Ch 11 are open for business!
Next weather system will begin as snow to the Town of Mammoth as early as Sunday afternoon with the IOP Monday, Sunrise to 11:00AM.
Early Est. show between .6 and .9 over the crest depending upon which model it is. This storm is colder than the last but will be faster moving.
I expect between 5 and 10 inches at this time over the upper elevations and 3 to 5 inches in town. I’ll have another update Friday….
Mammoth Mt Update: 12 to 30 inches storm total!
Tuesday November 3rd Update:
The Dweebs are beginning to see the right kind of biases in the models for the southern half of the state. It takes a few storms in November sometime to get some sense of the biases of storms and their track.. One of the biggest messages and in fact a (((SCREEMING MESSAGE))) is that the “RRR” IE, the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge-Resilient-Ridge has not redeveloped along the west coast so far this fall. It seems to have found a home north of Hawaiian Islands where we like it!
NCEP GFS T1534
Additionally, there is “beginning to be” a trend or bias of storms digging further south in the GFS, noting the new 12z run of the “GFS T1534” for next Monday where earlier model runs brought this is as a NW slider for Mono Country favoring the Northern Sierra. The GFS now wants to dig it further south before turning east. In an El Nino year, the Dweebs would expect storms that bias a more southern track and that is currently starting to happen. However, this is not the pattern you would expect from El Nino yet. At the moment a combo of the ECMWF and GFS has upped the amounts to between 6 and 8 inched over the upper elevations for the Central Sierra next week for the 9th/10th next week. But that is just a snap shot of that time frame which is some 6 to 7 days away. PS….the latest 18z GFS as a stronger west coast system for the 16th. The EC has not got it yet….
What is just beginning to develop in the longer range charts are what snow dreams are made of, as the previously mentioned RRR is no ware to be found. The long wave ridge position is west of Kauai.
I will have my first pre weekend forecast for the Platinum powder subscribers Tonight for the Thursday opener…..I guess Mammoth Mountain could not wait!
The latest update from the Nino basin’s 3 and 3.4 show SSTA’s of 2.8C to 2.7C. This represents peaking possibly in this anomaly. I would say that there may be a little more warming based upon the updated KV in the far tropical eastern pacific. but the SSTA anomaly will most likely remain where it is to just slightly warmer the next 4 weeks.
NOTE: the new forecasts for the CPC show the eastern US having last years western blow torch and the reverse for west.
Although the snow was pretty wet in town, Mammoth mountain has picked up some great early season accumulations for 11 to 18 inches with another 3 to 6 inches possible over night…… The back of the storm is currently moving through Mammoth at the moment with light to at times moderate snowfall continuing. Cold unstable air aloft will allow snow showers to continue through Tuesday evening. Although the main upper low will stall out over the Great Basin, another band of snow may develop Wednesday morning. Latest short term guidance is digging a slider further west for mid week for this purpose.
More on that later….
The next opportunity for addition storminess in the outlook will be with a new storm about the 10th.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)