Cooling promised for next week looks delayed until weeks end as 4-Corners high too strong…..Seasonal temps expected with breezier weather much later next week….
Saturday August 22, 2015
Posted at 5:42 pm by Howard
So far…all the tropical storms are forming well west of Mexico and are traveling from East to West within the Easterlies. This pattern is expected to continue for the next week or two. So at this particular time, any hurricanes developing in the deep tropics will not likely be a player in CA weather. The only caveat is that it is possible that a system over the northern tropics west of Cabo could spin up and be caught up in the developing long wave eastern pacific trough.
Upper North Pacific Pattern:
Speaking of the Eastern Pacific Trof….The developing western hemispheric pattern is becoming unusually amplified for this time of the year. This is due to the tropical storms forming over the El Nino related warm waters near the Dateline and east… then re-curving north east of Japan. Remnant’s of these Tropical Storms will continue to keep a rather amped pattern within the westerlies through the end of the first week of September. It is possible that one of the central pacific hurricanes might phase with an already amped pattern driving the upper long wave ridge north of Hawaii well into Alaska and north more like October weather.
The present forecast is one that trends the weather over CA to a dry SW flow with below normal temps and breezy to at times to windy weather next week. If the timing is right, and one of these central pacific TS phases with the westerlies in an already amped pattern, that could drive an unusually cold trof into the sierra around or just after the weekend of the 5th of September. Like the Dweebs have said…the late Summer and Fall are going to be very interesting this year with El Nino.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)
Lite SSW flow aloft will continue for the next couple of days and so will the smoke and haze due to the Rough fire to the west of, between Independence and Aberdeen. By Thursday we may get a little relief depending upon how quickly the Eastern Pacific Digging Trof gets in here. No doubt Friday, Saturday and Sunday will be smoke free as the upper flow is quite strong. The direction will initially be from the South West then becoming westerly then North Westerly. The west coast long wave trof will likely reload several times between Friday and next week… The weekend looks quite breezy and cooler….
The Rough Fire has grown to 51,794 acres with an increase in containment to 17%.
A battle between the 4 corners high and a rather energetic belt of Westerlies is being won by the Continental this coming week. Thus the current high temperatures in the 80s will likely remain for at least another 3 to 5 days. Any dip into the upper 70s will probably be delayed for the end of next week if that. Night time lows are currently in the low 50s. Mid 40s to low 50s also seems likely at 8000ft. The Rough fire west of Independence is continuing to burn with over 47,000 acres now consumed. It is only 7% contained. Smoke will likely continue to spread north through the Owens Valley and the Central Sierra in the coming week…..
The climatology of September indicates that the 4 corners high will gradually weaken. So when we have another recurving super Typhoon off Japan, by the middle of September, the idea of a stronger westerly push seems more likely to make it. The Dweebs will be sure to identify the weather change, when another pattern sets up. The Re-curving of the current typhoons off Japan is quite early in its development for this time of the year. This maybe why the models brought in too much cooling and wind for the upcoming week. Additionally, it should be noted that there is an exceptional amount of tropical storm activity not only in the Western pacific, but also in the central and eastern pacific. This is no doubt related to the low-frequency state of EL Nino.
Waters off the Southern California coast are reported to be in the low to mid 70s. SSTAs usually peak in September off the SO-CAL coast. Being that there is such an exceptionally strong El Nino in process…..it will be of interest to see if any tropical storm holds together long enough to bring Southern California a major rain event with coastal gale force winds, September and October.
Remembering Hurricane’s Iwa and Iniki, the south shore of Kawai seems to be highly susceptible to tropical storms during El Ninos. The months of September, October and November are of most concern as El Nino Peaks out. Hurricane Iwa passed within 25 miles of the island of Kauai with peak winds of 90 mph (145 km/h) on November 23, 1982. Iniki struck the island of Kauai on September 11, 1992 at peak intensity; it had winds of 145 miles per hour (233 km/h) and reached Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
High temps will settle back to normal as we trend into next week……Strong amplification from recurving Typhoon east of Japan will develop a major trof off the west coast the end of the month…..Record El Nino event still possible……
Thursday August 20, 2015
Posted at 7:28 am by Howard
Brief message from the Bureau of Meteorology of AU on El Nino…..
The 2015 El Niño has continued to strengthen over the past 14 days… “The ocean and atmosphere are reinforcing each other”, with tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures well above El Niño thresholds, consistently weakened trade winds, and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index. Strong coupling of the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere is typical of a mature El Niño, “and suggests only a small chance” of the event finishing before the end of the year. All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the tropical Pacific is likely to warm further, peaking later in the year. Typically, El Niño peaks during the late austral spring or early summer, and weakens during late summer to autumn.
From the MET (ECMWF)
Some ensemble members produce very large anomalies, with anomalies above 3.3 °C implying NINO3.4 temperatures of 30 °C or higher. Such temperatures are physically unlikely, and forecast anomalies above 3 °C are believed to be largely due to non-linearities detrimentally affecting the model calibration.
“Because they are rare, we have limited experience of how models handle such extreme conditions, so some caution is needed in interpreting the plots shown on the web. We take the EUROSIP forecast to suggest that it is very likely that sea-surface temperature anomalies will be at or above 2 °C by November, and that, although the largest anomalies shown are unrealistic, it is possible that the 1997 record values will be exceeded,” Dr Stockdale said.
Short term weather events…
- Strong Typhoon beginning to re-curve up to the east of Japan…. Expect strong constructive phasing with the westerlie’s next week…..
- Hawaii need to keep watchful eye on a Hurricane next week as it heads north from the lower tropics….
- Strong amplification of the westerlies to bring cooler breezy weather 2nd half of next week…..
- Cooling trend next week looses steam as upper trof become cut off…..Mammoth Lakes highs to continues in the 80s through the middle of next week……
Another rainless week ahead with above normal temperatures through Thursday…Then Breezy and not a warm into the following weekend……Some interesting changes coming up the end of the month….
Saturday August 15, 2015
Posted at 1:48 pm by Howard
The Nino 3.4 region is now +2.C !!
We Officially have a Very Strong El Nino for the past week
Walker Fire Update #5 8-19-2015 8 AM
Incident: Walker Fire Wildfire
Lee Vining, CA: Burning approximately two miles southwest of Lee Vining the Walker Fire remains at 3,715 acres. This is a human-caused fire that is still under investigation.
Crews continue to improve containment lines and begin mop up in certain areas of the fire. Mop up efforts also continue on the 65-acre spot fire.
Tioga Pass (Highway120) is open without an escort. However, there will be no stopping along the eastern six miles of the road. This will be strictly enforced. The fire remains active to the south of the road and this is essential for firefighter and public safety.
The fire is burning in mixed conifer, mahogany, and brush. Critical sage grouse habitat is also threatened. Visitors and residents should expect to see smoke from the June Lake and Lee Vining areas and along Highway 395.
Closures and Evacuations:
- Walker Lake “Fishing Camp” has been evacuated.
- A CodeRed Emergency Alert notice has been issued for Lee Vining and everything north of Double Eagle in June Lake (including Silver Lake and Grant Lake areas) for potential evacuations.
- Campgrounds in the Lower Lee Vining Canyon have been evacuated and are closed, including Lower Lee Vining, Moraine, Boulder, Aspen Grove, and Big Bend Campgrounds.
- Law Enforcement will be escorting campers into the Lower Lee Vining Canyon campgrounds to collect any gear left behind during evacuations. Escorts will run from 9:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. today. Affected campers will be allowed in with escort only. Campers are asked to meet Law Enforcement on Hwy 120 at Vista Point Drive. If an officer is not there, please wait patiently at the three cones.
- The Walker Lake Road (1N17), the Parker Lake Rd. (1S25), the Upper Horse Meadows Rd. (1N16), and the Gibbs Road (1N18) are closed for fire operations and public safety. All of these roads are accessed via the northern end of the June Lake Loop. All spur roads off of these roads are also closed. The trail to Mono Pass (trailhead is at Walker Lake) is closed.
Approximately 484 firefighters are on scene as well as numerous aircraft, dozers, and engines. Resources from Mono County, local fire departments, Cal Fire, neighboring forests, BLM Bishop Field Office, and the Mono County Sheriff’s Office are assigned. For more information on the Walker Fire you can go to the following sites: Inciweb: http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4515/
High temps are on the upswing after yesterdays upper trof ejection through the Eastern NW. The continental upper high expansion westward will bring some of the warmest temps so far this Summer. The pattern shift with the continental upper high moving west usually brings thunderstorms to the high country. However, this time it is centered too far to the south and thus a WSW upper flow continues. In that heights are higher, temps will be too. This pattern is likely to continue through Friday….some cooling is expected over the weekend, but temps to continue above normal.
Looking beyond Friday, amplification will developing over the pacific with retrogression as well. A series of short waves will bring welcome relief to the parched pacific northwest The Dweebs even see some snow in the outlook for the Canadian Rockies during week 2. It’s time as Fall usually sets into Canada by mid to late August. However, for Mammoth another surge westward of continental high pressure may bump up temps again that following week.
The Late August/September surprise is still in the cards as retrogression of the long wave pattern may continue, offering more trofing developing further west. This looks possible the end of the month and into 1st week of September. Additionally, if the timing is right the eastern pacific trof may pick up a wandering hurricane as well. This will be the focus the end of the month into the first week of September.
PS: The ski season of the 97/98 El Nino began in early/mid October. Lift’s opened by Mid October…….. A Redux is a possible….
El Nino News:
3rd strong down welling phase of Kelvin Wave since last March is currently reinforcing the Nino Basin.
Todays daily contribution to the SOI (southern oscillation index) calculation is -31.74 which is quite strong. Thus westerly wind bursts continue along the Equatorial Central Pacific.
The current mid August strength of El Nino is comparable to 1997 at this time.
Warm Blob in the Gulf of Alaska is showing signs of cooling.
1. The Blob of Warmth was a contributor to the dry winter of 2015. It assisted in delivering cold to the mid west and east. The Dweebs said contributor not the reason. Other teleconnecting issues like a positive AMO earlier this year blocked up the Western Atlantic and helped contain the cold over the east. With the warm Gulf of AK Blob cooling, and the AMO trending negative (less west Atlantic blocking) and possibly the +PDO weakening in the Fall…The stage should be set for the wet!
I. More thoughts and considerations…..
With all this talk and chatter in the news and else ware about El Nino, this is probably the most important and covered El Nino in the media of all time.
a. Social Media
b. California’s severe drought and its effects upon an increased population relative to existing water supplies
c. An event of this magnitude is associated with the informational resources via the internet, in both a scientific way and in a way for the general public to understand.
II Other thought’s
Q. What does this particular El Nino Mean as a value in long range climate prediction on the scale of the next 12 months?
A. This particular El Nino (Type 1) has got a signal that makes it easier at a longer distance of time to predict future weather events for Southern California. Hence, the stronger the El Nino, the stronger the signal. The stronger the signal the higher the likelihood of a wetter than normal winter for Southern California and possibly points northward as well.
Q. Do you need to have “this” strong (Type one) of an El Nino signal for a Wet California Winter?
A. No….. As a case in point, according to the records of DWP, since the late 1940s, the Winter of 1968/1969 was the wettest winter at Mammoth Pass. Coincidently, that winter was just barely a Moderate El Nino. So you can get very wet Winters in the Southern Sierra without such a strong signal. The main point is that the stronger signal is only beneficial for increasing the odds in the game for prediction for a wet winter, not the wettest winter on record.
1. In Mammoth Lakes, the winter of *1983, (type I El Nino) was a wetter winter than the all time strongest recorded El Nino of 1997/98 event for water content up on Mammoth Pass *(90) inches. So another point is….In the event that this turns out to be a stronger event than 1997/98, does not necessarily mean a wetter winter than the winter of 1969 or 1983, just because the signal is stronger.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)