High Pressure building in over Northern CA and Western NV will begin warming trend through Mid Week with light breezes…Summertime Monsoon shut down untill further notice….

The weather pattern over the far west was anything but normal the past few days with 100 MPH winds over the top of Mammoth Mt Sunday AM with a rather chilly Monday morning. There were several reporting RAWS sites with 32 degrees this morning. Crestview…Bridgeport and Ellery Lake. The anomalous weather is due to the combination of an active western pacific with tropical storms amplifying the down stream pattern and a strongly negative WPO teleconnection that is currently off the chart from a standard deviation of normal. It would be very interesting to see this pattern in the Fall (September-October) here in the Eastern Sierra!

Today begins a warm up that will continue into the beginning of the weekend then cooler breezy weather returning by Saturday PM into Sunday.  Expect high temps in the low 70s today then low 80s by Mid-Week. Winds will be light.

One of the big factors in the new pattern is that the Continental high is both either weaker and flatter over the desert southwest or displaced well east at times. This is due to the anomalously strong -WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation) and an anomalously strong trof off the coast of the pacific NW. This for the most part, is cheating the Pacific NW of Summer and the Sierra of the Summertime Monsoon.  I believe that the MJO is partially responsible for all this, along with an increase of anomalous warm water developing over the tropical western pacific.  The strengthening trades and a positive ONI are all working together toward LA Nina…..

Another thought is the very low solar (lack of sunspots) that is coincidently occurring at the same time as the solar cycle races toward the solar minimum. As mentioned in a previous post, The few years leading up to and after the solar minimum seem to be cooler and wetter further south down the west coast. So…. It may be that over the next 5 to 7 years we may have more normal to wet winters than dry ones….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-_)

West Coast Ridge weakening this week leading to more seasonal temps through Thursday…..Strong for July upper trof will move through the pacific NW bringing cooler weather….Gusty Winds and Critical Fire weather Saturday……

Sunday AM:

History in the making….Top of Mammoth Mt gusts to 103MPH this morning at 5:00AM….Still gusting to 98MPH……Chatted with lead forecaster at RENO this AM…..This July trof is the strongest for this time of the year “ever recorded”. Standard deviation from normal is off the chart….

 

The Dweeber…………:-)

—————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

 

Weather conditions have been spectacular the past couple of days with seasonal temps and light afternoon breezes. Highs have been running in the mid to upper 70s with lows in the upper 40s.  This will begin to change Friday as an seasonably cool trof for this time of the year moves into the pacific NW sending high temps in Mammoth down into the upper 60s by Sunday with moderate gusty winds Friday into Saturday.  Night time lows will drop into the 30s in the high country, and low to mid 30s in some of the colder locations,  If you are planning on back country travel this weekend, plan accordingly.

Winds:

Ridge top gusts are expected to be in the 50-70 MPH range with the chilly temps Saturday night. Winds in town could gust 30 to 40mph Saturday morning through Saturday. This is a dry pattern so no precipitation is expected in Mono County.  The upper trof is progressive and so ridging will build back in, with seasonal temps returning by Wednesday.

As mentioned in the last discussion, this pattern will make it very difficult for any monsoon moisture or dynamics to move up from the south or southeast. It may be that it will continue drier then normal until the period between the 17th and 20th when monsoon moisture and dynamics make a return.

Fire weather:

FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR
MONO AND EASTERN ALPINE COUNTIES AND MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES…

* AFFECTED AREA…FIRE ZONE 273 MONO AND EASTERN ALPINE COUNTIES
AND FIRE ZONE 459 MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES.

* WINDS SATURDAY…INCREASING WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO
45 MPH.

* HUMIDITY SATURDAY…8 TO 15% INCREASING TO AROUND 20% LATER IN
THE EVENING.

* IMPACTS…THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY CAN
CAUSE FIRE TO RAPIDLY GROW IN SIZE AND INTENSITY BEFORE FIRST
RESPONDERS CAN CONTAIN THEM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

AVOID OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT CAN CAUSE A SPARK NEAR DRY
VEGETATION… SUCH AS YARD WORK… TARGET SHOOTING… OR
CAMPFIRES. FOLLOW LOCAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS. CHECK WEATHER.GOV/RENO

 

Mammoth Mt closes July 4th for the ski season with an amazing year!…..Although June was one of the hottest on record for the Eastern Sierra….Somewhat Cooler than normal temperatures are on the way for the rest of July…The Monsoon looks weaker than normal for July….

After a string of very warm days with temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees above normal, during the month of June, the forecast models are trending toward a much cooler month of July associated with west coast troughing in the mean. This will create a trend of breezier than normal afternoons and evenings along with high temperatures mostly in the 70s and even some 60s possible. Additionally, there will be much fewer days at and above 80 according to the guidance. This is opposed to what we had during the month of June where highs were mostly in the 80s the second half of the month.  The trough in the mean also spells the likelihood of a much weaker monsoon season which would be good from the standpoint for less lightning strikes.  Typically we get more high based thunderstorm’s here, carrying the threat for more lighting than heavy rain in July.

On the flip side, the negative here is that if this pattern actually does set up, the frequency of critical fire danger episodes would greatly increase, as short wave energy within the troughs bring a greatly enhanced zephyr, (west wind) along with strong winds for summer aloft. Furthermore, shots of very dry air from the west would likely accompany the strong gusty winds.  This is what I see based upon the current extended guidance, beginning the second half of this week. The west coast trough that is forecasted by the both GFS and ECMWF is definitely anomalous for the month of July!

Now for some encouraging news…

I have been told by one well seasoned Meteorologist from WSFO Reno that is now retired, that persistent Troughing in the Summer is linked to wetter winters here. Does this mean that the winter of 2016/2017 will be a wet one? No….it just means that from a troughy previous summer, that the incidence of wetter than normal winters are higher the following year.   However, just like the big El Nino forecast for a big winter in Southern CA last year that was a bust,  there are no guarantees.

One other item worth mentioning…  I do not know if any of you have been keeping up with solar news. The Sun has been recording several spotless days since early June.  We are rapidly headed toward another solar minimum.   There is also a link between wetter CA winters and solar minimums.

 

The Dweeber………………….:-)

 

 

,