October Record Rainfall to be followed by a Dubious November….some interesting developments through….

Its November 1st, and the Dweebs are beginning to look at the hemispheric weather pattern more seriously. I get that NOAA’s winter outlook shows no biases one way or another for Central CA and for good reasons. We are pretty much ENSO neutral with only a weak bias to La Nina.  In looking at the last couple of days ONI, you would think that we would be heading back toward ENSO neutral with weaker trades. However, this morning, numbers have become positive again and hopefully will increase further.  Some teleconnections are pretty interesting with an anomalous amount of snow piling up over Northern Asia. The feed back into northern hemisphere weather is very significant on a climate scale. Large heat sinks like that can feed back to cold deep Polar Vortexes in that region that can set up down stream patterns that will influence weather patterns going forward into the end of the year.  Additionally, the QBO cycle which has been in it positive phase for some 15 month is getting old and will most likely flip during the up coming winter. The other important teleconnection is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which dramatically weakened in August and September. The surge of cool water extending east across the mid latitude’s between Asia and the central pacific suggests that the PDO is getting ready to strengthen again in the positive mode. This forces warmer then normal water along the pacific west coast and spreads it north and south. The other feature worth commenting on is the Solar minimum which we are rapidly heading into. The Sun has been flatlining more often than not the past year.

 

The short and medium range forecasts are pretty much dry for Mammoth Lakes except for the slight chance of some light snow/showers Sunday. Temperatures will warm up and become more seasonal later this week before cooling again late in the weekend. High temps will be mostly in the 50s this week and with temperature inversions mid week, lows in the 20s and 30s can be expected.

Looking at this mornings GFS and ECMWF, the models show very quiet weather conditions for the Central Sierra the next two weeks.  The Climate Forecast system as well as other longer range models show quiet weather the next several weeks and some for the next few months. I Look at those climate models un-enthusiastically.

 

Today I am very interested in what the MJO phase space charts are showing; A major “Highly amplified incursion into phase spaces 6-7-8 and 1.

  1. Precipitation relevance to phase space;  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/NDJ/combined_image.png
  2. Temperature relevance to phase space; http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/OND/combined_image.png

So this is what I am looking at now for the month of November. (subject to change)

MJO

The three global models of choice today are showing a weak MJO single for this week. (Week 1)  However, emerging in week 2, is a strong signal into phase space 6 propagating over time to phases 7, 8 and then 1.

If this signal is real, then the global models will adjust next week to become more highly amplified. Additionally, and again if the signal is real, we would expect the NAO to become strongly negative with a lot of high latitude blocking expected down the road. A big question will be, will the -NAO become west based or east based.  What this amounts to is where the cold is going to go, West or East. Best guess, “if the MJO signal is real”, stronger ridging over the far west weeks two and into three with cold in the east then retrogression spreads the cold west weeks 3 into week 4.   So the cold stormy weather would return during week 3 then into the end of the month.

 

The Dweeber…………………..:-)

 

 

 

 

 

Storm # 2 Leaves elevations below 8K pretty much snowless….Next system to bring a few snow showers Tuesday AM….Then a long break ahead….

Monday AM:

Storm Total for the Village at Mammoth 1.73 inches….This morning there is between 1 and 2 inches on the deck at the 8200 foot level.  What is outstanding is the total rain/snowfall in inches here at Mammothweather.com.

A whopping 8.02 for the month of October!  The Dweebs do not recall that much precipitation occurring during the month of October….  As a note…this moisture has been mostly subtropical in origin…

There is a small system that will brush through late tonight and into the morning hours for Tuesday bringing some snow showers. Amounts should be no more than an inch or so…

 

The simple answer to the question “what happened to all the snow” is that the cold air was delayed and most if not all of the precip was in the warm sector….Mammoth Weather picked up 1.73 inches of water so far. 99% of it was rain or rain/snow mix.   The good news is that Mammoth Mt as of 10:36 pm has picked up 2.34 inches of water so far.  That means that elevations above 10K has between 18 nd 24 inches of fresh snow.  The next system is favoring Northern CA.  The Dweebs expect some snow showers Tuesday morning…..then a break in the storms though at least next Friday.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)

Storm 1 is winding down…Storm 2 to arrive Early Sunday Morning….

Some nice precip totals so far. At the Village at Mammoth 2.13 inches of rain so far has fallen. 2.78 on Mammoth Mt.

 

The wet short wave has now passed into Nevada and improving weather is expected until Saturday night when a colder system arrives with Snow expected in town.  Storm number 3 if you want to call it that is pretty whimpy. Only expecting a dusting Tuesday morning….

Tioga Pass did close this afternoon. It is not known if they will reopen again before they close for the season Saturday afternoon for the next storm… PS I hope it reopens as the Dweebs have to travel to Fresno Saturday….or it will be “Take the Long Way Home”  Faav Supertramp.

 

The Dweebs do see another weak system Monday night and then a long long break before the next series of storms arrive….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)