Very warm weather to continue for the Eastern Sierra with near record highs by Friday…..Upper Dynamics along with the influx of Monsoon Moisture will Juice up our local Air Mass leading to an increasing chance of thunderstorms this weekend….The Outlook for next week is much of the same…..

The CPC this AM gave a nice discussion in regards to the MJO, the Current Kelvin Wave and ENSO:

Here are the important points of interest:

1. A strong kelvin wave is currently out ahead of the position of the MJO’s convective envelope and interacting with the EL Nino Base state. Enhanced tropical convection is occurring south and a bit west of Hawaii near the EQ.

2. MJO is destructively interfering with the ENSO base state, but that will soon change as the convective state shifts east.

3. The Nose of the KV is located about 125west and still adding heat to the Nino Basin.

OUTLOOK:

1. The Convective state of the MJO will shift east to the eastern part of the Maritime continent with tropical storms forming their over the next 7 days. That area will shift east week 2, for the tropical longitudes between Central Micronesia and east to just beyond the Big Island of Hawaii. Expect tropical storms and typhoons to develop in that area during those times. IE north of the EQ moving west.

2. During the later part of week 2 and into week 3 (around the Fourth of July holiday or just beyond the Fourth,  the MJO will constructively interfere with the ENSO state over the Eastern Pacific for an enhanced state for Hurricane’s and tropical storms over the tropical Eastern Pacific, eventually leading to enhance the Southwest Monsoon  early the following week of July 4th. This may or may not effect CA as retrogression of the Long wave may send most of the Monsoon moisture further east.

Temperature’s continue about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year with highs over Mammoth in the Mid 80s. Nights will be most comfortable for those that sleep with the windows wide open…Screens included.  Some of the summertime bugs are now out but the Bats in the evening are busy getting a mouthful! 😉

I expect a bit warmer weather into the early weekend before Thunderstorms and airmass modification leads to cooler afternoon highs.  Wetter storms are possible Sunday into Tuesday next week, with the pattern lasting right into and through the 4th of July weekend!

The Details:  Tomorrow Thursday, the Continental Subtropical high redevelops over the desert southwest again, then bubbles up over Utah and NV. This feature will work in tandem with an upper low forming more from a “Coll” ….Thursday into Friday. The upper flow begins to be channeled up into CA from the subtropics.

Over time….The upper continental high becomes negative tilt with both moisture transport as well as upper divergence. They will work together to bring wetter storms into the Sierra, Sunday….through Wednesday.   Afternoon and evening thunderstorm’s will likely continue well into next week. High temps in Mammoth will occur earlier in the day next week due to more afternoon clouds, higher dew points and Scattered Thunderstorms.  Lows at night will be mostly in the 50s, next week.

Post July 4th:

The Western Hemispheric pattern goes into retrogression around the 4th of July.  The new 12Z June 24th deterministic EC retrogrades the upper high from the pacific NW out to about 140west. The EC ensemble”s do not make that much of it..  The GFS ensembles doesn’t do much with it either. In fact the GFS builds back the Continental high that week.  The ECMWF deterministic, tries to pull down an inside side slider over the Northern Rockies or Northern Great Basin.

With as strong as the Continental high is, I have serious doubts that it will affect California or most of NV.  But still…..The big question for the week following July 4th, deals with this possible retrogression and how the models will handle it.   Also what role if any, where all that subtropical moisture will go, as MJO modulates the southwest monsoon at that time.

 

Inter-seasonal:

As per past discussions,  The Dweebs are watching the location of the MJO’s convective state in blue as it moves from the Maritime Continent,  then into the western pacific.   Thereafter, it shifts east toward the dateline then Eastern Pacific, all in a 2 to 3 week period.

SEE:  http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR_modes/f.7.MJO.html

The core of the Blue is the area with the most intense OLR or the best convection.  That area, early next week, will create a large area of upper divergence over the tropical western pacific and increase chance of tropical storms and possible typhoons over the Western Pacific.  Eventually it will shift to the Eastern Pacific by the end of next week.

The enhanced convective state of the MJO over EL NINO creates “constructive interference” in the MJO signal. However, the term “Constructive” is what is most significant in the terminology, as the enhanced convection from El Nino combined with the upper divergent state of the MJO leads to a large area of very warm and saturated air mass over the eastern pacific tropics.   The Dweebs would expect the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes spun up from the ITCZ and eventually an enhanced monsoon to develop around or the week following the Fourth of July weekend.  The global models this morning showed a rather strong easterly wave tracking across MX.

 

Temperature forecast:          Tuesday       Wednesday      Thursday       Friday        Sat            Sunday       Monday

Mammoth Lakes:                   49/84              49/84              50/85          51/86       54/87          56/85          55/84

Bishop:                                   54/102           55/102        65/103         69/105     70/108          70/104       72/102

After a Cool Breezy Sunday, temperatures will warm again Monday and remain in the Low 80s through Thursday…..Increasing chance of thunderstorms next weekend and into the following week…

The CPC this AM gave a nice discussion in regards to the MJO, the Current Kelvin Wave and ENSO:

Here are the important points of interest:

1. A strong kelvin wave is currently out ahead of the position of the MJO’s convective envelope and interacting with the EL Nino Base state. Enhanced tropical convection is occurring south and a bit west of Hawaii near the EQ.

2. MJO is destructively interfering with the ENSO base state, but that will soon change as the convective state shifts east.

3. The Nose of the KV is located about 125west and still adding heat to the Nino Basin.

OUTLOOK:

1. The Convective state of the MJO will shift east to the eastern part of the Maritime continent with tropical storms forming their over the next 7 days. That area will shift east week 2, for the tropical longitudes between Central Micronesia and east to just beyond the Big Island of Hawaii. Expect tropical storms and typhoons to develop in that area during those times. IE north of the EQ moving west.

2. During the later part of week 2 and into week 3 (around the Fourth of July holiday or just beyond the Fourth,  the MJO will constructively interfere with the ENSO state over the Eastern Pacific for an enhanced state for Hurricane’s and tropical storms over the tropical Eastern Pacific, eventually leading to enhance the Southwest Monsoon  early the following week of July 4th.

 

FROM MONDAY: (Short term WX)

It was a nice break in the heat Sunday as the combination of short wave Trof moving through the CA/OR border and the upper high over the SW shifting east brought in winds and cooling. The strong breezes of Sunday are gone today and 500-1000mb thicknesses have increased. High temps will now continue into the low 80 through Wednesday. The next change occurs between Thursday and Friday as an upper low forms off the Northern Baja coast while a new Continental High forms over the desert SW. The result is channeled flow up from the subtropics.

Over time….The upper continental high becomes negative tilt and both moisture transport as well as upper divergence work together to bring an increasing chance of thunderstorms, beginning as early as Friday, with the odds increasing each day through the weekend and following week.

As per past discussion,  watch the location of the MJO’s convective state in Blue as it moves from the Maritime Continent to the western pacific.   Thereafter, it shifts east toward the dateline then eastern pacific, all in a three-week period.   SEE: http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR_modes/f.7.MJO.html

The Core of the Blue is the area with the most intense OLR or the best convection.  That area will, within a week, create upper divergence over the tropical western pacific and  increase chance of tropical storms and possible typhoons over the Western Pacific.  Eventually it will shift to the eastern pacific and do the same.

 

Temperature forecast:          Tuesday       Wednesday      Thursday       Friday        Sat            Sunday       Monday

Mammoth Lakes:                   49/84              49/84              50/85          51/86       54/87          56/85          55/84

Bishop:                                   54/102           55/102        65/103         69/105     70/108          70/104       72/102

Above normal temperatures to continue the next 10 days for the Eastern Sierra….Continental High Reigns over the Far West…….Not much relief until the Monsoon kicks in late this month…..

Monday AM:

Looks like forecast is probably back on track….the high at Bishop Sunday was 99….Forecast was 102

High pressure builds back in by mid week with more heat on the way….  Moisture arrives by the weekend for a chance of Thunderstorm’s….

Sky Fire is 60% today contained with full containment by Tuesday….  Yea!!   Thanks to all the Fire Fighters for the swift response!

 

Sunday 12:30PM update:

Sky fire near Fish Camp along Highway 41 is still 500 acres with about 700 personal on it.  It is/was a very dangerous fire because of where is it located in reference to Yosemite.  I am happy to report that as of the last update, the crews seem to have a good handle on it and should have a parameter around it in the next 48 hours.  Today would be the worst day with dry gusty winds and Red Flag warning….  So if they can get it under control by the morning the worst as far as weather conditions will be over…

Bishop’s high temperature yesterday hit 108 breaking the old high temp record set back in 1961 of 107. Today may be slightly cooler.   As mentioned below, the NWS at WSFO Las Vegas has not been paying much attention to the Owens Valley temperature forecast.  Or maybe they just don’t care! They have a forecast of 102 today and 98 Monday. Lets see how they do. I’ll report tomorrow AM.

MJO:

Check out the updated ECMM which has been leading the way over the GFS for the track of the MJO. Remember, early last march when this signal moved strongly into Phase 7, a major westerly wind burst occurred along the equator and really set up a big Kelvin Wave.  It will be very interesting to see if this happens again in July. Not that we need any more subsurface warming under the NINO Basin. However, nonetheless it will be interesting to see how this all unfolds, especially in the Summer!  http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

PS,   I could not get ahold of an archive of the FEB/March RIMM phase space chart for early this year.  I do remember that the MJO within Phase 7 was about off the chart.

When the new MJO get into the western pacific, look for a big increase in Typhoon activity ahead of it.  In the last strong event, two typhoons developed, one on each side of the equator. They worked together to really set up a major Westerly wind burst….. followed by KW…

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The heats on over the high country with highs in the mid 80s in Mammoth Today. WSFO Vegas have hired Met Tech’s to forecast the temperatures for Bishop AP as they have not been even close to the highs the past several days.  Come on Guys and Gals at WSFO Vegas. We care about getting the Owens Valley temps correct. You have been lagging!

As the Upper High currently over Southern Ca  shift’s east to the Texas Panhandle by Monday Noon.  During the process, a small upper jet comes through Northern CA Sunday AM and really whips up some southwest flow. Winds on Sunday will be moderate to possibly strong in some areas, especially over the sierra crest.  I hope the firefighters get out the Sky Fire soon. It is located a bit to the east near the Tenaya Lodge at Yosemite, off highway 41.  It is 30% contained and about 500 Acres. That fire is burning in some very dry forest and brush and will get whipped up by the winds Sunday afternoon.

Overall, weather picture, is highlighted by above normal heights over the far Southwest. Dry weather is likely to continue until just prior to the next weekend when the upper flow begins to turn more out of the south, then SE by Sunday.   There is an easterly wave that will track through Northern Mexico and eventually move some monsoon moisture and dynamic’s westward, then northward early the following week.

I also see an upper low over the Subtropics or Mid Latts developing. That feature along with the continental high will likely begin to channel moisture up from the south by the end of next week. Upper dynamics will possibly come in to play and so by about the end of June and into the first week of July, Thunderstorm action will make a debut after a warm  spell.

MJO:

Over the past week, the MJO shifted its upper divergent state east into the Western Caribbean and its suppressed state with upper convergence to the tropical eastern pacific. The latter will likely continue through a good part of next week. Thereafter, the convective state of MJO will re-emerge over the tropical eastern pacific by the end of the month as upper divergence redevelops into the first week of July and into the 2nd week over the tropical eastern pacific. There will be lots of fuel and a positive pattern for moisture both channeled into the desert SW and possibly CA due to weak trofing from the southwest and forcing from a combination of the southwest trof and impulses around the continental high from the Southeast.  More later as the pattern for week 2 develops later in the forecast models.

ENSO:

WOW!!!!   Check out the direction of the warming from the CPC models in May for the 3.4 region to the most recent run a couple of days ago!!! 

 

1. The Forecast from initial conditions May 21st through May 30th  See:  http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd1/nino34Mon.gif

2. The Forecast conditions June 10th through the 19th. See: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

This is getting very scary!  😈

And we are now beyond the Spring barrier…….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………….:-)