Troughing off shore and a developing southerly flow will highlight our weather with a few thunderstorms this week along with gusty winds at times….Expect Temps to be Near or Slightly Below Normal

 

Thursday AM Update:

No surprises this morning.  A dry southwest flow associated with an upper low off the Northern CA coast will continue here in Southern Mono County. There is some moisture moving north along the NV/CA border but feel that Mammoth will not have much chance of thunderstorms unlike more northern and eastern portions for the Mono County. 

With so much sheer in the Mammoth area, storms may form well east of highways 395, the Northern Whites and over the more northern portion of the county this afternoon. For this reason the Mammoth Crest should stay dry.

The main effect of the upper low off the Northern CA coast will be cooling which began yesterday and breezy weather on and off the next few days.  Highs in Mammoth will be in the upper 60s today and Friday. By early Friday and Saturday morning, wide-spread upper 30s may result.  Highs Saturday-Sunday will be in the low to mid 70s.  The Aspen Fire is now 80% contained so expect smoke and haze to continue diminishing over the next several days.

Outlook for next week:

Height rises from the Texas will work slowly westward into Southern California with much warmer weather returning to the Mammoth. Again expect a return to seasonal temps in the mid 70s by Monday to possibly upper 70s by midweek. At the moment, the warm-up is not associated with any influx of moisture or unstable air. So a dry pattern is expected next week, although the higher temps no doubt will initiate some high based Cu which will occur over the higher elevated heat sources.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-) 

 

From Last Weekend:

Latest 12Z guidance shows a continuation of toughing along the west coast. The off shore Trof is expected to be negative tilt and so will be good for channeling up moisture in a southerly flow in the mid and upper levels. Although no deep moisture is expected, the southerly flow will be accompanied by a few vort centers and so a little later in the week, dynamic forcing looks possible when the upper low comes into CA. This adds up to a chance of TSRWS in the Central Sierra mainly Tuesday and Wednesday. Any thunderstorm’s should be mostly diurnal in nature and as they would be high based, and could have strong outflows along with gusty winds.  High temps will remain in the upper 70s for the next few days then cool to the low 70s by Thursday and Friday. The Dweebs are expecting a dry clear following weekend with temps in the mid 70s and lows in the 40s. It looks great for the annual Persieds Meteor Shower next Sunday night! Hopefully the smoke will be all gone by then!

Longer range still shows a mostly dry southwest flow aloft and trofing along the west coast through much of August. The Climatic Forecast System is looking at a warmer then normal September as well.  There may be one last burst of Monsoon moisture in the Sierra about the 3rd week of August.  Summer is definitely on the wane in the high country temperature wise, however,  lots of nice warm Summer days are expected ahead……

Comments…

It is actually good to see more trofing in August as often times trofing in the Summer portends a wetter winter to follow. This is just one of many little signal’s that the Dweebs have taken notice of in the past….to think about for the future Winter….

The Dweeber……………………..:-)

Quite Weather Pattern To Continue this Next Next week with a few Isolated Thunderstorms possible….. Wednesday through Friday……..

Aspen Fire Sunday Evening Update”

 

Current Situation

Total Personnel 1,828
Size 20,252 acres
Percent Contained 70%
Estimated Containment Date Saturday August 10th, 2013 approx. 12:00 AM
Fuels Involved Timber with mixed chaparral
Fire Behavior Fire continued to be active throughout the north and east sides of the fire. Temperature is increasing and humidity decreasing.

 

Longer Range: 

First half of August will be Normal to below normal in temps and drier then normal

Second half of August will be Normal to above Normal in Temps and there is the possibility of that a period of Monsoon moisture will invade the sierra about the middle of the month of shortly thereafter.

Climate:

September is expected to be warmer then normal with normal to above normal Precip. (Dying Tropical Storm to effect Ca?)

ENSO:

Some Climatic Models for the winter of 2013/14 trending toward weak El Nino Conditions for California. (+.5C)

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)

Dry Conditions Return to the Eastern Sierra with near Seasonal Temperatures along with Afternoon and Evening Zypher winds……It will be breezy Wednesday and Thursday…Smoke from Aspen Fire to persist the next few days…..

Aspen Fire Incident Update:  http://inciweb.org/incident/article/3552/19548/

Tuesday AM Update:

Southwest flow will slowly increase today with the drying trend that began Sunday continuing today…..tomorrow and on into Thursday. High temperatures will range just below seasonal norms with breezier weather expected Wednesday and especially Thursday. By Wednesday, the breezes may actually help to disperse the smoky conditions earlier in the day and suppress any inversions that may set up to a bit later at night. Air Quality appears to be better today then yesterday.

Expect highs in the low to mid 70s in Mammoth with lows in the 40s. Winds will be in the 20 to 25 MPH range and will increase Wednesday into Thursday with gusts to 35 MPH by Thursday. The effects of the wind upon the fire at that location-elevation will not be as significant as the drier air moving into the Sierra, fire-weather-wise. 

Looking down the road…….>>>>

In a few days it will be August.  For the first of August, the Climo for the Eastern Sierra spells the beginning of the weekly decline in temperatures. Unlike the last two weeks of July when average highs reach up near 80, the average highs in Mammoth are expected in the mid to upper 70s. Hence the days becomes shorter and the nights longer. By the end of the month of August, upper 30s in Mammoth are common in the early morning and daytime highs in the low to mid 70s….then low 70s by Labor Day. and by Mid September upper 60s.  Remember, at elevations above 8000 feet, the Climate in the central and northern Sierra is akin to some areas of Canada.

So Summer is now about past its prime……However, even now that it is middle-aged, it can produce some really nice warm days. Because of the forecasted return of the positive upper height anomaly, pushing back into Eastern Ca from New Mexico later next week, the Dweebs expect above normal temps next week with a return of the 80s. As the upper flow backs to southerly, isolated to scattered TSRWs are possible sometime the 2nd half of next week.  More towards Thursday or Friday. I “won’t” imagine that the Aspen fire will still be burning by then.

The Dweebs are beginning to think about what the winter of 2013/14. What will it be like? Based upon the reverse of the QBO and how hot this Summer has been so far, the Dweebs believe that the upcoming winter will not be “Anything like the last two”. There are other important changes both hemispherically and SST wise that will be discussed later this Summer and into the Fall. It all looks very promising!!!!!! :-)

Wax-up up?

 

The Dweeber……………:-)

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Aspen Fire:

5:25pm Monday Update:

Incident Commander: 4:30pm Monday

Good progress with indirect line is being made on the northwest side of the fire. Indirect line has been completed on the southwest side of the fire. Air resources were grounded most of yesterday because of the inversion lifting late in the afternoon. The Very Large Air Tanker (VLAT)- D.C. 10 was utilized on the fire yesterday. Crews continue to use direct attack when possible.   Access to the lower portions of the fire along the San Joaquin River’s edge is an obstacle.  Smoke from the fire continues to impact the San Joaquin Valley and Mammoth Lakes.

From (WFORNO)

AN INCREASE IN SMOKE IS EXPECTED AS CONTROL FIRES ARE LIT IN AN EFFORT TO TURN
THE FIRE IN ON ITSELF. CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL ENSURE THAT NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS FOR EACH NIGHT TRAPPING THE SMOKE IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AIR QUALITY WILL IMPROVE EACH AFTERNOON
AS WINDS INCREASE AND DISPERSE SMOKE, BUT DECREASES AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS INVERSIONS FORM.

From This morning:

In speaking with a forecaster from the NWS late last night, the fire moved into an area of dense fuel late in the afternoon. So the fire picked up in its intensity. Strong inversions…mainly at night and into the morning hours is keeping smoke near the surface. Strong inversions are expected between 9:00pm at night through much of the morning hours. During the afternoon, especially after 20Z, the inversion should break, giving our area better Visibility. Inversions will once again redevelop the next few nights by 9:00pm. It is possible that if we get enough wind Wednesday night that the winds may give us a break in our area.  It is not expected to be windy where the fire is. Just mainly over the highest elevations and along the Lee of the Sierra.

Fire Stats and information at 7:15 AM Monday:

Incident: Aspen Fire Wildfire
Incident Statics

Acres Burned: 11019

Structures Threatened: 3

Containment: 20%

Structures Damaged: 0

Fire Start Date: July 22, 2013

Injuries: 0

Fire Cause: Lightning

Total Personnel: 1479

Cost to date: $5.7 million

Summary

§ The Fire is located within the Sierra National Forest in Fresno County and is approximately seven miles North of Big Creek. It is currently burning off Stump Springs Road, North of Aspen Springs. The South Central Sierra Interagency Incident Management Team is in command of the Aspen Fire.

§ Over the past several days, the inversion layer has caused smoke to accumulate in the low laying areas of the fire which hampers visibility of firefighters on the ground and in the air. As the smoke clears in the early afternoon, a more defined smoke column(s) may be seen from several miles away.

§ Recreation and businesses remain open in the Shaver Lake, Huntington Lake, Lake Thomas Edison, Florence Lake and the Mono Hot Springs areas.

Fire Update

§ Firefighter and public safety remains the highest priority. Fire crews are being sensitive to environmental and cultural resources in and around the fire area.

§ Due to the extremely steep, rugged and inaccessible terrain, fire crews are using a tactic called indirect attack which creates control lines away from the fires active edge. Air resources, including several helicopters and air tankers are being utilized along the fire-line to slow the forward progress of the fire and to cool down hot spots. As the situation changes and firefighters can safely gain access to the fire, a more direct attack will be implemented.

§ Smoke from the Aspen Fire continues to impact air quality in local communities including Mammoth Lakes South of Mono Lake.  Individuals sensitive to smoke are advised to remain indoors and keep windows closed to minimize exposure to smoke.

Your link for the most updated information:   http://inciweb.org/

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)