Updated snowfall QPF and Snowfall For Weekend Storm

This afternoons models continued to show strong height falls along the pacific coast into the Great Basin over the weekend. Several additional impulses will follow the original front Friday afternoon, well south into California Saturday.  Moderate precipitation will shift south from Northern Ca, down through the Central Sierra after the initial front moves through Friday afternoon. By Friday night, moderate snowfall is expected in Mammoth. Then heavier snowfall will develop over the Central Sierra later Saturday, as the reloading of height falls occurs Saturday and a closed low develops off the extreme Northern Ca coast by evening. This will have the effect of driving an even stronger moisture fetch into the Sierra, later Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Heavy snowfall will occur at this time in the Mammoth Area.

HPC 5 day QPF is boosted over the crest close to 3.00 storm total by Monday.  Again…snow to water ratios will begin at about 10:1 then grow to about 20:1 by Saturday night. Thus snowfall totals, “up to” 2 feet is possible at elevations at 8000…. and up to as high as 4 feet over the crest for the Central and Northern Sierra by Monday.

The Dweeber………………………..:-)

Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Last Mellow Day Today…Then Winds On the Increase Tonight….Storm May Now Linger Into Tuesday

Just a quick update this morning…

No real changes accept to slow the progress of main trofs exit early next week into Tuesday. The models have been very persistent in the early timing.  So…here we go…..

Expect sunny skies today with light winds. Highs in the mid 50s with winds on the increase this evening becoming moderate by midnight…then gusts to 50 mph Thursday through Friday. There will not be much temperature change until the 1st front moves in later Friday.  By Friday, highs will cool to the 40s in town.

Snowfall will occur at about the 6500 foot level Friday night and by Saturday morning there will be about 2 to 3 inches in town and about 3 to 6 inches over the upper elevations. Snowfall will become heavier Saturday and into that night with Blizzard conditions possible along the highway 395 corridor.  Travel maybe treacherous along the highway 395 corridor north to Reno.  Snowfall should taper off early Sunday. However, snowfall is likely all weekend, and on and off into Tuesday next week.    Snowfall ratios will begin at about 10:1 then increase to near 20:1 by the time the Arctic air gets into the region later Saturday.  As far as the 550-1000mb Thickness….The magic 540Dm thickness isohyet is located just south of Mammoth by 00z Sunday with further thickness falls down to 528Dm by 12z Monday.  Tallies could be some 2 to 3 feet over the upper elevations by Monday morning with a foot or two near the village.  Before the main upper trof exits, a cold Arctic born inside slider will put the icing on the cake Tuesday. Milder weather will develop toward Thanksgiving day with an even milder weekend! Another storm looks possible the first week of December………………….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………:-)

Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Another two days of mild weather then winds on the increase Thursday leading to cold snowy weekend

A Rex Block has already established itself near the dateline with a negative tilt upper ridge transporting cold Arctic air via the Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska. The lead short wave is now in the Gulf of Alaska sporting an Ht 500, 528dm upper center. Over the next 24 hours…  more Arctic air wrapping into the upper low will push the upper center south to near 55N/145W, while our off shore ridge at 140w becomes ever so squashed. During the next few days, a rather large 500-1000mb thickness pool of 516dm covers much 0f the Gulf of Ak and is diffluent into the surface low spinning up off the BC coast Wednesday morning. Temperatures at 700mb over Alaska are between -20c & -25c. Pretty cold for Mid November. The 500MB Height Anomaly showed a center,  greater then -36 Deca-Meters off the Oregon coast Saturday night. This is one deep upper low for Mid November.  These heights would be more common later in December.  No wonder the upper jet is so strong and why it will be a particularly windy storm with the potential for Blizzard conditions later in the weekend along the 395 corridor and here locally in town.

Preliminary QPF from HPC is 1.3 inches over the crest by Saturday night.  However, it is way too early to speculate on snowfall amounts until we get closer to Friday. All the Dweebs will says is that there is “the potential” for several feet of snow over the upper elevations.  As a note, there is not any subtropical tap shown now, like was indicated some 5 days ago. Nevertheless, with an upper jet this strong, and an unusual amount of cold air aloft and good over water trajectory, this system will generate plenty of its own moisture!

Long Range Week 2:

The Dweebs are still expecting a break for the traveliers of the Thanksgiving Holiday. The 8 to 14 days outlooks show  normal precip beginning the 23rd through the 29th.  The weather for Thanksgiving at the moment shows upper ridging and thus fair weather.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)

Reference Weather Glossary