Fair Weather Ridge will provide warming the next two days with the next weather system taking a trek a bit further north……Weekend looks unsettled and breezy with light snowfall…

 

(Get ready for the storm that will not die)

Amounts over a 6 day period beginning Tuesday will range from 2 to 5 feet. The storm will begin on the warm side but will chill through the week….

This is a series of waves attached to a mother low that will park off the coast next week.

Still keeping the faith for a miracle March!   (176 total inches)

UPDATE TONIGHT:

 

Thursday AM:

The Subtropical jet is dominating the WX pattern with periods of gusty winds and unsettled weather. This is expected through Sunday. Although snowfall in the Town of Mammoth will not be heavy, there may be 3 to 5 inches of snow with some 6 to 12 inches over the sierra crest between Saturday afternoon and noon Sunday. The snowfall will be heavier and more moisture leaden than recent storms.

The mid-week storm is still looking good with both subtropical and polar jets being coupled. I expect several feet of snow during the second half of next week. Although there are still several storm’s in the picture this month, the 15 Day ECMWF EPS shows up to 7 inches of water or an average of 70 inches of snow by 23rd. We will need quite a bit more to get close to the 176 inches so not looking all that promising but still possible.  The good news is that the bulls-Eye for the 15 days is over the Northern part of the Southern Sierra……

 

The Dweeber……………………..:-)

 

Wednesday PM:

 

Here is the latest QPF update for the next 10 days from the Deterministic models for the area around or just west of the Mammoth Crest:

 

GFS:       5 inches  10:1   50 inches of snow

ECMWF: 7 inches  10:1  70 inches of snow

 

PS: The official snow total at the main lodge from the weekend storm was 50.5 inches.

So 125.5 more inches of snow to tie the miracle march of 1991. That may be tough…we need at least 2.5 more storms like last weekends to get close or more smaller storms!

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Tuesday Afternoon:

ECMWF (European Model) Coming in pretty wet now for the Monday night-Friday storm next week.  QPF suggests 6 to 7 inches of precip…..or 5 to 6 feet over the crest by Friday the 16th.  Again, the Trof and its associated polar jet to become confluent with subtropical jet and its environment Monday night, then on and off through Friday. Should make for some explosive Jet O’ Genesis!  Yes..this is another slow-moving developing pattern.  This system is not as cold as last-weekends storm but may finish some what cold…  The Dweebs still think the Miracle March is possible…. Need 176 inches at Main Lodge in March to tie it….

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Mammoth will enjoy a few days of spring like temps with highs well into the 40s today and Wednesday. As the upper ridge pushes east, subtropical high level cloudiness will overcast our skies Tuesday night and Wednesday. The next few systems this week look weaker now with only some light snow showers expected Thursday evening. Temperatures will cool this weekend back into the 40s and there will be windy periods over the Sierra Crest.  Snow showers are possible Friday through Saturday with the most organized system heading more north now and weaker at that. Expect anywhere between 3 and 6 inches of snow top to bottom through Sunday night with 1 to 3 inches in town.

Next storm will be early next week and it still looks strong with the possibility of footage in the high country. Some of the new model solutions tend to phase both subtropical and polar jets together by Mid-Week.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

The new week is highlighted by a change in pattern leading to more seasonal temperatures as our cold weather gives way to the Subtropical Jet…It will be very breezy over the higher elevations Wednesday and Thursday with the slight chance of some light snowfall Thursday and a better chance Saturday Night…..

Monday AM:

Only changes this morning to the discussion below is to highlight the potential of “AR” moisture from the subtropical jet later this weekend.  There is a trend in the GFS of pushing a portion of this off shore AR further north up into Central CA. At the moment it is too soon to forecast any significant AR with any certainty other than to say that a more dynamic system will tap deeper moisture from an AR off the Southern CA coast this weekend….The Dweebs well keep a wary eye on that.

The other change is in the timing of the main precipitation push, which now highlights Saturday Night into Sunday instead of Sunday night. This late weekend storm has the potential of bringing several feet of wetter snow to the upper elevations through Monday with nearly non stop snowfall possibly between its exit and the timing of the passage of the main mother low which may slow down through the 15th and not come through until Friday night the 16th.  We could see another 5 to 9 feet over the crest should all of that happen……Miracle March anyone?

Another comment…..Some times patterns will repeat themselves…Watch for another cold Low that may form off the coast of the pacific NW tapping Arctic Cold that may try to repeat what happened last weekend for around the 19th of March. It is later in the year but well see what shapes up….

For those interested in the snow level….It looks to range from 7500 to 6500 feet later this week. The following week looks to be colder with lighter fluffier snow toward mid-week with lower snow levels.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)

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After last weekends monster….The weather will be more tranquil the next few days. There will be periods of wind, clouds and some showers possible by mid-week.  Daytime highs will moderate well into the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday with nighttime lows in the teens and 20s.

Tonight’s new model runs show an interesting analysis at 00z Monday.  Namely, an upper height anomaly that stretches from the Philippine’s, northeast along most shores of the western pacific eastward across the dateline to the Gulf of Alaska.  I see no significant troughing anywhere over the pacific at this time. The pattern highlights two distant polar and subtropical jets. The Subtropical jet is being enhanced over Hawaii and the polar jet around 50 to 55 north just north of the Aleutians, Hawaii looks to be in for some good rain the middle of this week!

The upper polar jet looks to be doing some wave breaking Wednesday and this will cause the current cut off low along 140 west to become stretched out over the next 3 to 4 days. This process will enhance the subtropical jet in its underbelly and extend it to the California Coast by Tuesday/Wednesday. Precipitable water does increase with isotropic lift expected over the colder air. So the chance of mainly light precipitation is expected Thursday into possibly Friday. Again it appears to be quite windy Wednesday over the Crest.

The pattern by the end of this week does become more amplified. The key positive height anomaly amplifies near the dateline and becomes positive tilt over the weekend. This allows the deepening of a significant trough over the Eastern Pacific which kicks out the remains of the old cut off low next Sunday night and Monday. The suggestion is that some decent snowfall will result from that storm. Nothing like what we had last weekend, nevertheless the chance of some moderate snowfall.

Longer Range:

Eventually the large scale Trof that develops later this week comes though itself about the 15th of March with the possibility of a major storm.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

Platinum Powder Alert for Friday and Saturday AM……Storm is highlighted by heavy snow, strong winds and Blizzard conditions Thursday into Friday AM…Storm moves out Saturday leaving Epic conditions Sunday into Monday…..

Platinum Powder Alert for Friday: Between 1 and 2 feet of Platinum Powder (Snow to Water Ratio equal to or greater than 15:1)

Wednesday PM Update:
Winter Storm Warning in effect from March 1, 04:00 AM PST until March 3, 10:00 AM PST
Blizzard Warning in effect from March 1, 10:00 AM PST until March 2, 01:00 PM PST

Town of Mammoth may receive 24 to 40 inches of snow between late tonight and Saturday.
Up to 60+ inches is expected on Mammoth Mountain over the crest Storm total.

 

Bullet points/comments from the new 12Z GFS run this morning.

I have to say that this is quite interesting to see the amount and size of the Arctic Air mass getting pulled southward from the Beaufort Sea north of the Arctic Circle south along the west coast for this time of the year!!  Amazing!!  Do you think that the Sun Spot Minimum has anything to do with that? 😉

Here are the numbers!

At 500mb (18000feet)

  1. -40C to -45C is pulled down over Northwest Territories today.
  2. Huge pool of -35C to -40C is located from the very Northern most California coast north to Prince Rupert Island Canada. That is an amazingly large cold pool for that cold temperature!
  3. -35C cold pool gets as far south as Highway 80 early Friday morning with the southerly push continuing and modifying.
  4. -35C into Reno Saturday AM.

At 700MB 10,000 feet.

  1. Cold Modified Arctic lags the cold at 500MB
  2. -17C is progged into Northern CA Thursday Night
  3. -15C into Reno Friday morning.
  4. -8C to -10C at Mammoth or 14F to 18F Friday AM
  5. Note: there is plenty of vertical motion and moisture to keep the snow going through Friday night.
  6. With the coldest temps aloft Friday afternoon into Saturday AM.
  7. Highest snow to water ratios Friday into Saturday AM.
  8. Sunday to be a Blue Bird Day

 

Longer Range:

 

Subtropical Jet develops off shore next week, Tuesday into Wednesday. Looked at the QPF and it was not all that impressive for Thursday and Friday, only .25 to .50. With that said, it should be pointed out that this is a system with Isentropic lift (upglide) or warm frontal type precip, early on. This pattern may also include a short term “AR”.   Forecast models do not handle this type of precipitation very well, so it is possibly quite under done, QPF wise.  The warm sector precip may begin as early as Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday AM. This is a system that would begin with cold air in place with warming temperatures over a day or two then followed by colder again. Great for avalanches…yes?

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………….:-)