Last in the series of storms to make its way into Central CA….Friday AM with a 1-2 punch….Weather prediction center expecting between 2 and 3 inches of QPF for the Central Sierra……Nice break in the weather coming up Sunday or Monday through Thursday next week……
Thursday January 21, 2016
Posted at 10:14 am by Howard
Latest Jan 00z 22 Update QPF from “WPC”, for the Sierra is about 2.25 inches around Mammoth with a 3.34 bulls Eye about 60 miles NW of the Mammoth Crest.
This updated QPF suggests that two combined systems will produce less than this mornings update. Latest models are showing some splitting of the upper flow that may limit to some extent snowfall totals. Nevertheless, it still looks like well see around two feet, at elevations between 9K and 10K by early Sunday AM. CRFC QPF has about 2.00 for the Yosemite. This is also a little less than this AM. We often get 2 feet or a bit more with those amounts over the crest.
Lower elevations maybe more in the 12 to 18 inch range, at and above 7000 feet, west of highway 395. The Dweebs will take another look in the morning…..
The last in the series of weather makers will begin to make its way into the high country later today with the effect of an increase in upper level winds over the crest. This morning, winds were very light over the lower slopes with ridge top peak gusts to only 25 MPH. Winds are expected to begin to ramp up this afternoon with the process continuing through Friday…..
Latest reports from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is indicating a 3 to 4 day bull’s-eye just to the NW of MAMMOTH OF 3.27 INCHES. Amounts to the NW of Tahoe are in excess of 4.00 inches on the west side. The upcoming storms will create a 1 -2 punch with a warm sector Friday AM associated with a small “AR”.
The latest WPC discussion indicated a moisture plume with Precipitable Water (PWAT) values of an inch streaming into Central CA Friday AM that moves southward toward Southern CA by Saturday AM, then south to Northern MX by Saturday night. By the time it gets to Mexico, a strong onshore flow will begin into Central CA early Saturday AM.
There will be two significant periods for precipitation over the Sierra:
- Onshore flow moves into Central California on Saturday through Saturday evening when the flow becomes parallel to the coast. Maximum QPF is expected to remain along the Sierra with Maximum amounts ranging from 1.50 to 2.75 inches on Friday into Saturday AM.
- A secondary impulse Saturday into early Sunday Morning shows the maximum QPF amounts again remaining along the sierra with amounts ranging from 1.00 to 1.25 inches.
- Thus the most favorable areas will have total QPF’s of between 2.50 inches and 4.00+ inches by Sunday AM.
- It is again the west side Northern Sierra that will have the most generous amounts.
- Mammoth Mt stands to receive between 2 and 3 feet of snowfall totals over the weekend.
- Lower elevation areas like the Town of Mammoth is expected to receive some ware between 1 and 2 feet
Lots of cloudiness at times but dry Monday though at least Wednesday with a warming trend…. High temps may get near 50 by Wednesday in town with lows in the 20s
Another small “AR” is possible by the following Friday……
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)
Tuesday January 19, 2016
Posted at 9:44 am by Howard
My Son Clifford reported heavy rain in Mt View in the Bay Area, between 8:00am and 9:00Am this morning, including a nasty traffic accident involving a Greyhound Bus. The back of this particular storm is currently moving on shore over the Bay Area and should be through Mammoth by this evening… California Rivers QPF has Yosemite in for about an inch and so amounts of about a foot are expected over the upper elevations, while 4 to 8 inches in the Town of Mammoth Lakes by tonight. Snow showers will end over night and Wednesday is expected to be dry into Thursday. The last in the series of storms will be worth watching a bit more in detail and it has a deeper surface low and thus has the ability to generate additional QPF.
For the folks coming up for the Weekend, at this time the majority of the Friday/Night storm should be over by Noon Saturday with just some lingering showers possible in the afternoon. There will be a nice long break between Sunday and the middle of next week…. High this weekend will be in the 40s with lows in the 20…. It looks quite breezy over the Crest Saturday, but the winds will gradually diminish into Sunday
This next series of storms are expected to begin about the end of the month of January…There are some big ones with a lot of energy touted by the longer range models in Week two for the Central Sierra. However, at least some of the runs are tracks that are closer to the west coast with a lot of meridial flow.
El Nino as peaked and will slowly weaken this Winter with more rapid weakening this Spring…
So Far, the response has been quite disappointing to the Southern Sierra and the Southern CA region. The Dweebs have had some head fakes both in December and January in the longer range models which have panned out little. Even more interesting is the current distribution of the Precipitation along the west coast which by now should become more focused along the southern half of the west coast instead of hammering the Pacific Northwest and Northern CA. If this were to continue through February and March, This would be the first time that I can see through the data that such a strong ENSO event favored The Pacific NW and Northern CA. With that said, we have a lot of time left in this winter which astronomically goes thorough the 21st of March. The Dweebs will add that they have experienced a whole winter’s worth of precipitation here in Mammoth Lakes in just 2 (10 day) periods…
In the long-range; The climate models are showing a major change in the pattern the end of this month into at least the first week of February. I am looking at the week two ensembles and the CFS week 3. It looks wetter for Southern CA.
In the meantime, Skiing has been just fabulous on Mammoth Mt. Some of the best snow in 5 years!.. If you have not come up yet to make some turns…do so soon…Life is short! 😉
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)
Weather Pattern has once again turned active in the high country with periods of light to moderate snow this weekend…….Then a Potential AR Event Late Sunday Night though Tuesday….
Thursday January 14, 2016
Posted at 10:39 pm by Howard
Sunday 7:45 AM
Although the focus of the “AR” will be over Northern CA this Coming Week…Mammoth Mt could still pick up 18 to 24 inches of wet snow between Tonight and Tuesday evening….. These are two storms back to back that are each moderate precipitation producing storms. There will be a break Wednesday and Thursday before another moderate storm hits Friday…..The Dweebs definition of a moderate storm is one that produces between 6 to 18 inches of snow over a 24 hour period.
Snowfall amounts were in the 3 to 4 inch range over the upper elevations with a trace to an inch or so in town.
The focus now shifts to Sunday night through Tuesday time frame as deeper moisture moves into the pacific NW south to Central CA.
This morning, CRFC did pull back on the QPF between Sunday night through Tuesday to less than an inch for Yosemite. Obviously the models have become drier for Central CA. However, this is a day to day situation and the Dweebs will update Sunday when were are within 24 hours of the beginning of the AR that will hit parts of the west coast.
Late tonight and Saturday AM 2 to 3 in town and 3 to 6 over Old Woolly…
The Models are really starting to pick up on quite the wet pattern next week and possibly beyond. Even Southern CA may turn much wetter later in the week and beyond….
The Dweebs are hoping that this is what we all have been waiting for..
After what was deemed our January thaw, another active weather pattern has developed. Although the storms Thursday through Sunday are in the light to moderate range, there will be some breaks with partly cloudy skies later Saturday into Sunday morning….the only other issue is that it will be very windy at times over the upper elevations. Looking at the outlook….Buckle Up! There is a chance for a real AR event beginning late Sunday night with the juice really increasing Monday into Tuesday. “A colloquial Pineapple Express maybe be touted” The Experimental model HIWPP FIM9 14-km showed a nice AR connection to near Hawaii with PWAT of up to 1.5 inches Monday and Tuesday.
If this sets up and I mean if….It will be wet base building snow with high moisture content with the snow level in the 7,000 to 8,500 range early next week. The Snow level will come down later Tuesday. Better confidence will occur by this Saturday PM for the Monday/Tuesday event so stay tuned. Sorry Southern Calif…. Although you will get some rain, You will have to wait until the following Friday to get your Pineapple’s…Maybe
The precipitation forecast shows moderate amounts of snow Thursday night into Friday AM possibly 6 to 10 inches. Another fast-moving system is expected Friday night into Saturday AM with lighter amounts…1 to 3 inches in town and 3 to 6 over the upper elevations, by Saturday Noon.
The next system will begin to spread snowfall into the Mammoth Area by Sunday evening and continue through Tuesday….
Forecast as of Thursday night for the weekend….at the 8200 foot level
Friday: A chance of snow before 7am, then scattered snow showers between 7am and 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday Night: Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday: Snow. High near 39. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow showers before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.
Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.
M.L.King Day: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.
Monday Night: Snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Tuesday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.