One more Atmospheric River to hit the Sierra hard tonight and Friday with 1 to 2+Feet in the Town of Mammoth…..3 to 4 feet expected on the Mountain will be a Challenge by Saturday AM….

They say in Meteorology that the 3rd or last storm in a series is often times the biggest. This series may not be an exception….as Mammoth Mt apparently is in the Bull’s-eye sights, for this last storm in the series…..

Snow-plow driver are weary.  Not only do they have a schedule to keep during storms, but in-between storms they have to create snow storage for the next storm. Many are so exhausted working around the clock that they are numb. We have a man power loader driver shortage. There are opportunities now, for some, that want to work in Mammoth, that knows how to drive snow removal equipment. We also have a big-big shortage of snow shoveler’s. Many are making at and over $30.00 per hour.  Got shovels? Call any of local roofer’s. They are looking for bodies to shovel. One more issue….You will also have to find a place to live which is a challenge in itself.

This winter has been a major challenge, as not only is Mammoth out of snow storage, but the designated storage areas yesterday, had ramps weakened so badly by moderate rains over the lower elevations, that they were unusable. Now a small storm for Friday has turned into a big storm for the town. We all have to deal with one more.

Note: 

There is another major storm cycle headed our way in about a week. I will have a special “weather letter edition” for my subscribers this Monday on it.  If you have not subscribed yet, it is only $10.00 at this time.   It pays for staff, computer replacement and IT maintenance.

To Subscribe : http://data.mammothweather.com/landing/

 

The forecast shows about two feet+, headed for the elevation of the Village at Mammoth by Friday night. Winter storm warnings are hoisted and travelers should carry chains in all vehicles tonight and Friday when traveling Highway 395 and 203.

Technical Discussion:

Latest vapor satellite loop this morning shows a well-defined Atmospheric River. The latest guidance shows this fetch will continue to impact the Sierra today and tonight and Friday.  This is particularly true for the Central Sierra tonight as the elongated moisture feed remains in place tied to the inter tropical convergence zone north of the Equator. The TPW loop shows this well.  Integrated water vapor transport values per the ESRL are several deviations above normal maxed out at climatological values.

The Hose will be focused upon Northern California today, then shift south into Central California tonight. PWAT is generally above the 99th percentile as well…..Then increasing to near record levels as the core of the AR shifts south across the central coast. 

Dynamics:..

Deep forcing within the warm conveyor belt, ahead of the upper trof will be well supported by frontogenic forcing by the front right entrance region of the northern jet axis. That will be combined with strong orographics, as the cold front and upper trof of shifts south. This allows for a robust dynamical set up for heavy snowfall in the Mammoth Lakes and Mammoth Mt Tonight through Friday AM.  Expect a period of intense snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches an hour, early Friday morning. 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

 

 

 

Soggy Wet Storms to give way to drying and sunshine over the weekend and into next week…..Next wet pattern taking aim on the High Country Week 2 Friday into the weekend…It is looking kind of splitty at the Moment….

So far, the Town of Mammoth has picked up 2.24 inches of water from this storm, while Mammoth Mt snow plot at Sesame, indicates up 4.84 inches of water. Another 3.5 to 4 inches is expected over the crest before the last AR is over in this cycle.  The Town of Mammoth will get another 1 to 1.5 inches of water through Saturday AM.  So far, Mammoth Mt reports about 3 feet at the Main lodge and approaching 5 feet at the 10,000 foot level. Another 2 to 3 feet is expected over Mammoth Mt prior to the end of this storm cycle. The snow level is now 9500 feet. It has been raining in town since late morning Tuesday and will continue to do so through Thursday. There will be a break in the precipitation later today into Thursday morning before the next and final AR arrives later in the day Thursday.  Expect the freezing level to fall Thursday night with the snow level coming down as well, into the Towns of Mammoth and June Lake. Snowfall is expected all day Friday and Friday night.  Snow showers are expected Saturday morning in town.

Accumulations in the Town of Mammoth will be between 6 and 10 inches at the village between Thursday at 10:00PM and Friday at 10:00 AM.   The Snow level at 10:00PM Thursday will be between 7500 and 8000 feet through 10:00AM Friday. About 1.20 inches of precip is expected within the same time frame. Between 10:00AM Friday and 4:00PM Friday expect about .25. Or about and additional 2 to 3 inches of snow at temperature. Little accumulation is expected after midnight Friday night into Saturday AM.

 

Medium Range:

A nice break is expected Sunday through Wednesday next week as high pressure aloft builds over the region. However, the next series of storms look likely to hit as early as Thursday night the 16th.

Note: The Dweebs have noticed that the next storm cycle will be different, in that the pattern or storm track is developing further west. The wave length relative to the location of the central coast suggests that the upper flow becomes very diffluent as it runs to higher height’s. This means that the storms will begin to run into resistance and tend to split prior to coming on shore. Although there is lots of time for the pattern to adjust, a pattern like this may cause the storms to split south into Southern California bringing them a very wet scenario, as there is a lot of strong jet support indicated along the US/Mexican border, well south of where it has been.

Climate:

The Climate Forecast system indicates that week three or the last week of February will turn wet again. Heights at 500MB over the WPO region are anomalously high. IE (-WPO) .  This would indicate a return to AR conditions along the west coast with a strong undercutting upper jet.

I will have a special report on this next week in my weather letter at:  http://data.mammothweather.com/landing/

See 500MB Height Forecast from CFS:

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

 

Warmer and Wetter Systems Ahead…..Weekend Looks Great!

 

Update via Weather Letter Tuesday 12:00PM  2-7-17

http://data.mammothweather.com/landing/

 

The pattern I see developing over the next  5 to 7 days will be one that favors central and northern CA more with warmer storms and wetter snowfall.   Weather systems Thursday, Friday, Sunday night and Monday are associated with a jet stream that is focused further north.  So snow levels will gradually rise with time. Atmospheric Rivers are still possible over the next 7 days so precipitation prediction will be tricky, especially this far south.

I am particularly concerned about a stronger Atmospheric  River, Tuesday into Wednesday night next week. That system may play havoc with the snow pack, especially over the Northern Sierra. To sum it all up, we have a few more weather systems to deal with here in Mammoth. However the brunt will be several hundred miles to the north of us and the southern portions of these systems will have both higher snow levels with weaker Atmospheric Rivers at times.  It is still possible that over the crest, there may be another 3 to 4+ feet by next Tuesday. There will be much less amounts in town because of the warmer temps. Again there is a concern about the Anti Cyclonically Curved pattern,  behind the Monday weather system for Tuesday into Wednesday.

The Dweebs are not completely confident that once the upper ridge sets up over the west coast later next week, that the ridge will hold for any significant length of time. However, the break will be welcomed by many!

Long Range Forecast- The next two systems that are headed our way look to bring between a foot of snow to the lower elevations of town and up to between 2 and 3 feet of snow over the crest. This is between midnight Wednesday night and early Saturday a.m..  It looks to be wet snow in the Town of Mammoth with cooling temps Friday into Friday night. The snow level will come down Friday night. This is a particularly windy system, as the upper jet axis is mainly to our north now. The weekend looks partly cloudy and breezy. There will be quite a bit of cloudiness at times with a few showers possible later Sunday, highs this weekend will be in the 40s and lows in the 20s. The Dweebs hope that this Sunday’s report for Monday a.m. will shed more light on that Atmospheric River for mid week next week,  if and where it may set up. If we do get precipitation in town Tuesday and Tuesday night. Most likely it will be rain.

Interseasonal outlook:

The Climate Forecast system is showing for week 3, a Massive Block, NW/SE over Hudson Bay then NNE to the Sea of Kara, Russia. The PV is forced to set up well South of the Gulf of AK about 135W to 140W with a southerly displaced Storm Track that could really hammer the central and northern West Coast….Sometime between the 16th and the 22nd of February…..Stay Tuned….  Note:  This is an outlook and not a forecast. (There is a difference)

 

 

Precipitation Anomaly: