SNOW SHOVELERS WANTED…. Lots of work in town……Some light finally at the end of the tunnel indicating that after this next upcoming storm…A longer break seems possible into February if these trends continue…………
Wednesday January 25, 2017
Posted at 9:30 am by Howard
Thursday PM Update:
IT’S All ABOUT THE BLOCK!
In Early Star Wars Movies Luke was told to Search his feelings in regards to the Force.
Today as an amateur weather forecaster, as I look around at all the snow in Mammoth Lakes, in searching my feelings, I have to say that I prefer that mother nature shut it off for several weeks! And…..see mid winter temps in the 50s instead of the 20s so we can get some melt! We lack snow storage; and if we were to get another 4 to 6 feet of snow in town, it might be doubt full that anyone down south would be able to enjoy it! Why? Because of no were to put the snow and nowhere to park and other major complication’s that might be unforeseen….
Update on the Models….
Trying to be as objective as one can….I have to say that after looking at this mornings 12Z Thursday GFS run, the certainty of the negative phase WPO/EPO becoming positive after the following weekend, thereby allowing retrogression of the block west to Siberia is not as certain this morning as it was yesterday or last night. If this block does not retrograde….we may have a problem….The Ensembles, a collection of deterministic runs, will tell the story over the next 5 days.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..
As of 3:30PM Wednesday, the trend continues of the retrograding closed anti cyclone to Siberia the next weekend, thereby allowing heights to rise along the west coast week 2.
Just when snow storage is maxed out and although the next storm is likely to bring more snowfall the middle of next week….Some light is showing up in the longer term….
The biggest factor in shifting the upper jet to the north is the big blocking high that is expected to rapidly set up again over AK and the Bering Sea. This is forecasted by both EC and GFS to shift rapidly west, past the dateline by the following weekend. Two of the 3 global models show that. The only outliner was the Canadian Model from last night which leaves the block in place a while longer.
A shift of the block to the west will send the storm track back up into the pacific NW for an extended period….
These are new trends….Need more time for confidence building……
Stay tuned for updates….
Mammoth Digs Out after Seige of Storms leaves snowfall amounts up similar to Late January of 1969…Short Term and Medium Range show a break in the weather of a week to 10 days….While Longer Range has the -EPO and -WPO Raising its Ugly Head Again………
Tuesday January 24, 2017
Posted at 7:12 am by Howard
Some of the greatest snowfall amounts since the big winter of 1969 has buried the Town of Mammoth Lakes. There are walls of snow some 15 to 20 feet high in some places and snow up to the 2nd story is common place throughout the Mammoth Slope Subdivision. For you locals out there….get lots of pictures, as this is possibly a 1 in 50 year event! In that this is only late January, odds are that a lot more snow is coming.
Looking at the week two charts of both the ECMFW and GFS, the two global models show both the -WPO and -EPO teleconnection strengthening, which is a strong indicator of blocking over Alaska and the Bering Sea. This is the pattern we had in both December and Early January when we had Atmospheric Rivers hit both Central and Northern CA. So far this has been the winter of AK blocking that began last October if you remember.
What you can do to protect your property:
Take preparations over the next week by creating snow storage:
- Cover windows buried in snow
- Get roofs shoveled and remove ice dams.
- Protect your Propane Tanks from Ice and snow, especially around the gas lines. Big winters are notorious for creating broken gas lines around tanks which can create leaks and possible fires and explosions.
Get snow trucked out of possible.
The New Deterministic GFS just finished Running… It is more similar to the Canadian…
The Location of the Block is the key teleconnection between the -EO and -WPO sector. It sets up the AR over time back into Central and Northern CA. In fact according to the GFS, there is a complete westerly break through into the Golden State by the 6th of February.
Based upon what we have now and what the future may bring, I think that it is entirely possible that this winter will break snowfall records of the winter of 1969 by the end of February….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)
Another 4 to 5 Feet Expected for the Town of Mammoth by Monday Night…..Storm Number 2 Rolls in Friday into Early Saturday morning…Followed by High Impact Winter Storm Saturday night into Monday leading up to the wettest January on record…..
Friday January 20, 2017
Posted at 6:12 am by Howard
Full on Blizzard Expected for Saturday Night into Sunday for Highway 395 in Mono County…. Everyone must carry Chains this weekend including 4WD with Snow tires.
The following is a excerpt from the National Weather Service in Reno. They stress readiness for storm #3…
The Dweebs will not update again until Monday night….
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND:
*Second in a series of three winter storms impacts the region today into Saturday morning.
*Lull in the weather Saturday afternoon is your window of
opportunity to make preparations for the next storm.
*Powerful Winter Storm to impact the Sierra AND western Nevada
Sunday into Monday.
*Below are some of the concerns, impacts, and preparation measures
you can take for the Sun-Mon storm from yesterday`s discussion.
WHAT CAN YOU DO:
* For communities in the higher terrain: Tahoe Basin, Mono County
(looking at you Mammoth), and Virginia City. While there is
potential for some unanticipated impacts, such as deck, roof, or
carport collapses, local officials are extremely concerned about
more downed trees across powerlines, roadways, and into homes. Dig
out and clear as much snow as possible before the next storm moves
into the area. Snow removal will become extremely difficult as
feet of snow piles up. Prepare for extended periods of power
outages, more downed trees, as well as being stuck in your
residence. Local authorities are recommending enough non-
perishable food for up to a week. Listen closely to local law
enforcement and fire officials for recommendations.
The main push of snowfall is beginning to impact the Sierra early Friday morning across the Sierra. Expect deteriorating driving
conditions through the Sierra this morning with chain controls already in effect for all open Sierra passes. This next round of
snowfall will provide another 1 to 2 feet across the Sierra through Saturday morning with the heaviest snowfall roughly from 6am to 6pm
before lightening up somewhat this evening into Saturday afternoon. Not expecting snowfall to completely stop on Saturday between storms
but most likely will be a continuous period of light to moderate snowfall through the weekend until the next and stronger storm
arrives Saturday night into Sunday (See the Long Term discussion for details on this storm).
LONG TERM…Saturday Evening through Friday…
* Blizzard conditions likely in the Sierra on Sunday.
* Sunday could be one of the heaviest snow events western Nevada has
seen in years.
* Be prepared for extreme travel delays and potential road closures
and power outages.
The strongest of the three storms this week is still slated to move into the region late Saturday night, continuing to impact the region
through Monday night. The heaviest precipitation is anticipated on Sunday which in conjunction with strong winds is likely to create
blizzard conditions and road closures in the Sierra. This is also shaping up to potentially be one of the heaviest snow events western Nevada has
seen in years. Significant travel impacts are likely Saturday night through Monday morning, with lesser impacts lasting into Monday
night as the snow turns to lighter showers.
A strong westerly 150+ kt jet is positioned across the Sierra into western Nevada on Sunday with the first push of precipitation
associated with this storm. This will help with both upslope enhancement into the Sierra in addition to spillover into western
Nevada. The second enhancement to the storm will come Sunday night as a surface front and vorticity maximum interact and once again
increase snowfall rates. Instability showers will then continue Monday, tapering off Monday night.
There is warming aloft present in soundings as the first portion of this system moves into the region, however, these profiles are
staying below freezing at all levels. Have allowed a rain/snow mix in the lowest valleys Sunday morning to account for this warm
layer, but feel the more likely scenario will be a period of heavy, wet snow. As the colder air filters in Sunday, snow ratios
will increase with the character of the snow becoming more powdery.
The main change to the forecast was to continue the trend of increasing liquid precipitation totals and therefore snow amounts
for this storm, especially on Sunday. Snowfall rates in the Sierra could exceed 2-4″ an hour during the peak of the storm with white
out conditions due to heavy snow and blowing snow. Current expectations are 3 to 4 feet of additional snow in the high Sierra
with 12 to 30 inches in the Tahoe Basin and for communities along Highway 395 in Mono County. Into western Nevada, totals through
the Greater Reno/Sparks/Carson City areas could reach 6 to 14 inches on valley floors with 1 to 2 feet in foothill locations,
including the Virginia City Highlands. Farther east across western Nevada, 3 to 8 inches of snow is possible.
Road closures and power outages are possible, especially in the Sierra, so be sure to prepare during the relatively quiet period on
Saturday. If you have snow on your roof, carport, deck, etc take the time to clear it off because additional heavy snow will continue and
structures could fail under the weight. The other concern will be the chance for trees to fall. Many trees are damaged from the past
drought, then have had loads of snow piled on top. In addition, the ground is saturated, so the strong winds will easily be able to
damage if not topple weak trees.
Tuesday through Friday conditions will be dry with a ridge building across the west. With the anticipated snow on the ground, this will
lead to strong inversions developing through the week and poor mixing. We will have to see if the inversion also leads to areas
with fog and low stratus, but will leave out of the forecast for now until we see how the storm Sunday plays out. –Dawn
Good Luck Mammoth! …………………………………:-)