Drier air to invade Eastern California the next 3 to 5 days with Zephyr Winds on the Increase Monday…..Daytime Highs will Increase again while Nighttime lows fall….

The best rain/hail shower break out of the year occurred Saturday afternoon in Mammoth as a significant deformation area of surface convergence developed over Southern Mono County and along the Eastern Slopes of the South Central Sierra. Forty Three hundreds fell at Mammothweather.com and pea sized hail along with some minor street flooding occurred Saturday. The forecast models are showing drying in the med levels and dew point are lower this morning.  The trend will accelerate today and only isolated TSRWS are expected.

The upper low off the Southern Ca coast that created the deformation yesterday is progged to open today into a trof and that is resulting in the drying that has already begun.  By tomorrow Monday, during the afternoon and evening a true Zephyr will develop as the gradient increases west to east. The trof to our west Tuesday into Wednesday will further increase Zephyr winds and by Wednesday, a Summertime wind event is possible for west winds 30 to 40 MPH region wide.  Much lower dew point will accompany the winds for fire weather concerns.

Temperature will rise a bit with the dryer air….Mid to upper 70s in Mammoth and the night time lows may fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s by Mid week.

 

Sunday AM Aspen Fire Update:

The Aspen Fire was discovered on Monday, July 22 burning on the Sierra National Forest- High Sierra Ranger District. The fire is burning below Stump Springs Road north of Aspen Springs.

Additional resources continue to arrive, assisting in fire suppression. Sierra National Forest initial suppression efforts, crews were able to keep the fire from burning into the Kaiser Wilderness. Firefighter and public safety remains the highest priority.

The South Central Sierra Interagency Incident Management Team assumed command of the Aspen Fire at 6:00 P.M. July 24, 2013. The team is working with the Sierra National Forest to manage suppression efforts.

Smoke from the Aspen Fire is impacting air quality in local communities. Individuals sensitive to smoke are suggested to remain indoors and keep windows closed, to minimize exposure to smoke.

The fire is in steep, rugged, inaccessible terrain. There is no imminent threat to the communities of Big Creek or Huntington Lake at this time.

The Sierra National Forest is suppressing 15 additional fires and all are less than ¼ acre in size; all of these fires were started by lightning.

Road and Trail Closures

Roads:

Stump Springs Road is closed to all traffic due to fire suppression activity.

Minarets Road (4S81) from Fish Creek to Jackass Rock Organization Campground, Grizzly at Beasore Road to Minarets Road are closed to the public. Residents within the road closure are allowed into the area with valid identification.

Trails:

Per the U.S. Forest Service Closure Order number 15-13-09, the Kaiser Wilderness is closed.

 

Basic Information

Incident Type Wildfire
Cause Lightning
Date of Origin Monday July 22nd, 2013 approx. 10:15 PM
Location seven miles north of Big Creek
Incident Commander David Cooper

Current Situation

Total Personnel 1,187
Size 8,927 acres
Percent Contained 15%
Fuels Involved Timber with mixed chaparral
Fire Behavior Fire continued to be active throughout the night.
Significant Events The closure of Stump Springs road remains in effect. The Sierra National Forest has issued a Forest Closure Order for the Kaiser Wilderness. A precautionary evacuation of campgrounds west of the San Joaquin River on Forest Road 4S81 are in place.

Outlook

Planned Actions Utilize air resources continued direct attack when possible. Continue to build handlines and conduct burnout operations when possible.
Growth Potential High
Terrain Difficulty Extreme
Remarks A firing operations may continue today. Good progress with indirect line is being made on the northwest side of the fire. Air resources may be grounded most of the day because of the inversion lifting late in the afternoon. Crews continue to use direct attack when possible. Access to the lower portions of the fire along the San Joaquin River’s edge is an obstacle. Smoke from the fire continues to impact the San Joaquin Valley and Southern Mono County.

Thunderstorm Chances on the Increase Again the Next Few Days as Mid Level Cap Weakens….Southerly flow to Add Moisture and Dynamics through Friday Evening….Dry weather with Zephyr winds to return next week….

Friday AM 8:14 AM    Thunderstorm Threat (High)……Outlook favorable for thunderstorms through Saturday then more isolated Sunday. Dry Monday through Thursday.  8000 ft Daytime highs mid 70s, lows upper 40 and low 50s

Update on the Aspen Fire WSW of Mammoth:

4500 Acres:

The Aspen Fire was discovered on Tuesday, July 23 burning on the Sierra National Forest- High Sierra Ranger District. The fire is burning below Stump Springs Road north of Aspen Springs. Additional resources will continue to arrive assisting in fire suppression. Sierra National Forest initial suppression efforts, crews were able to keep the fire from burning into the Kaiser Wilderness. Firefighter and public safety remains the highest priority.

The South Central Sierra Interagency Incident Management Team assumed command of the Aspen Fire at 6:00 P.M. July 24, 2013. The team is working with the Sierra National Forest to manage suppression efforts.

Smoke from the Aspen Fire is impacting air quality in local communities. Individuals sensitive to smoke are suggested to remain indoors and keep windows closed, to minimize exposure to smoke.

The fire is in steep, rugged, inaccessible terrain. There is no imminent threat to the communities of Big Creek or Huntington Lake at this time.

The Sierra National Forest is suppressing 15 additional fires and all are less than ¼ acre in size; all of these fires were started by lightning.

 

Basic Information

Incident Type Wildfire
Cause Lightning
Date of Origin Tuesday July 23rd, 2013 approx. 12:00 AM
Location Seven miles north of Big Creek; Near Mammoth Pool Lake; 45 Miles WSW of Mammoth Lakes
Incident Commander David Cooper

Current Situation

Total Personnel 858
Size 4,500 acres
Fuels Involved Timber with mixed chaparral
Fire Behavior Fire continues to burn actively
Significant Events The Closure of Stump Springs road remains in effect. West Kaiser and Sample Meadow Campgrounds are closed. Precautionary evacuation of campgrounds occurred yesterday west of the San Joaquin River on Forest Road 4S81.

Outlook

Planned Actions Utilize air resources continued direct attack when possible. Continue to build handlines.
Growth Potential High
Terrain Difficulty Extreme
Remarks Access to the lower portions of the fire along the San Joaquin River’s edge is an obstacle. Smoke from the fire continues to impact the San Joaquin Valley as well as Mammoth Lakes during the afternoon and early evening hours.

 

Thursday AM:

Day before yesterday we were over developed with cloudiness and thus rains did not materialize because of the lack of sunshine and heating. Yesterday….the upper high set up over the top of us and we were capped. Today’s forecast models shift the upper high over NW Nevada which creates a weaker cap….Then tomorrow a weaker cap yet with an increase of moisture and southerly flow in the mid levels. 

Upshot is for an increase of daytime convection and the chance of thunderstorms through Friday…..It is possible that some areas of Eastern CA could get in excess of an inch of rain by Friday evening. Hope that’s good news for the fire fighters on the Aspen Fire. However, there will be an increase of lightning as well.

The bad news is that by this Sunday, a Trof of low pressure will be approaching California and deepen next week. This will increase west winds during the afternoon and evening hours and bring much drier air into the region……

Longer Range:

Just like the middle of July, the extended outlook for temperatures will be effected by relatively weak Trofing along the west coast beginning this Sunday, then deepening a bit into mid week. This herald’s the end of the influx of subtropical moisture and a much more stable atmosphere for the high country next week. High temperatures will trend down toward the mid 70s by mid week, possibly cooler. Those pesky west winds (Mono Zephyr), along with drier air will allow for much cooler nights with strong radiational cooling. 

This trend/pattern looks likely to continue through the first week of August which will again, lend itself to some what lower chances then normal for rainfall and thunderstorms. 

Interseasonally, the longest range charts show height rises for the west coast along with the continental upper high pushing west again beginning the 2nd week of August for Heatwave Pt III and Monsoon Part II for the high country…..About the 8th of August through the 21st. 

If your coming up for the Bluesza, bring something warm to ware for the evening…..

See:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20130724.NAsfcT.gif

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)

Upper High over Nevada to Weaken Today Allowing Moist Upper Flow to finally move North through the Central Sierra…..Showers and Thunderstorms a good bet the next few days……

Tuesday AM Update:

NWS Hoists Flash Flood Watch for both Inyo and Mono County’s:

Campers, Hikers and Fisher folks keep your eyes on the weather today. Be aware of your surroundings and stay away from areas prone to flash flooding. IE Canyons, Arroyos, creeks and stream’s. If heavy rain is observed upstream get to higher ground.

Latest 12Z WRF has very slow moving VT Max along the Inyo/Mono County boarder ATM….shifting NNW so far.  PWAT chart has rich isopleath of 1.8+ over Kern Co/Inyo Border with gradient right up the Owens valley and Mono County. CAPE in our vicinity is near 750 Jewels per KG. IE AIRMASS is Very Buoyant with convergent/divergent couplet 

Main message is for areas of very heavy rain today. Travel on roads between Eastern Ca and Nevada through areas “like” West Guard pass/Lida Junction will be dangerous this afternoon due to potential for Flash flooding. Additionally, areas along the Sierra in historically flash flood prone areas will be the same.

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Another very warm weekend has come and gone as an area of strong high pressure acted to break more high temperature records as well as develop mainly air mass showers and thunderstorms. This mornings guidance is a bit different as the upper high that created another high of 105 in the Reno area for the 4th time this Summer…and upper 80s in Mammoth is breaking down.  The strong easterly wave that moved out of AZ and into Southern Ca over the weekend is now associated with an area of low pressure off the coast of Baja. To its NE is PWATs in the range of 1.5 to almost 2 inches.

With the upper high over NV breaking down, monsoon moisture and dynamics are being allowed to move north and invade Eastern, Ca , Southern Ca , the Southern Sierra and eventually up through the Central Sierra later today.  Vandenberg, sounding was over 1.5 Pwat this AM.  A vort max near the coast of south-central Ca was enhancing shower activity near Paso Robles this AM.  A Divergence/Convergence couplet was located over the Southern Sierra at 1600UTC.

Flash Flood Watch’s were issued for portions of White Mts adjacent to the Owens Valley Today. Scattered TSRWS were in the forecast for the Mammoth area…..with the action going possibly into the night tonight and continue Tuesday.

If you are camping and or hiking be sure to keep an eye on the weather this week for the possibility of heavy rainfall in the Sierra.

High temps will not be as high the next few days because of more cloudiness and moisture. Nighttime lows will be higher…..

 

 

The Dweeber………..