Heat is on across Eastern California and Nevada with Record High Temperatures expected this weekend into early next week…Heat Wave to begin breaking down by Mid Week

The weather charts this morning had no problem pumping 500mb heights over Mammoth to 594DM by 1600UTC. This is just the beginning as heights will Climb to the high 590s and 500-1000mb thicknesses into the mid to upper 580s by early next week. Any high temperatures records in Mammoth will be dependent upon how rapid air-mass modification occurs over the next 5 days. At the moment the peak in the heat is expected Sunday and Monday in general. However, for the high country, many times it is earlier as air mass modification results in high based thunderstorms that will tend to begin in the late afternoon…then occur earlier each day until Thunderstorms begin as early as late morning. During that scenario, daytime highs would be reached in the morning prior to the usual 1:00 to 2:00pm time frame at resort level’s. This results in a stunted daytime high.

So yes….a 90 degree high is certainly possible in Mammoth this weekend. However, temps may be more in the mid to upper 80s then cooling to the 70s as the week goes on next week if the TSRWS get cranking earlier.  By Wednesday, the upper high gets stretched north so much that is literally pulls apart and a weakness develops off the Central coast. This would increase divergence over the Sierra for a good old- fashion thunderstorm pattern Wednesday and Thursday, especially if any southeast flow develops. This may compete a little with the Man made fireworks for the holiday.

Stay Cool, stay hydrated, and remember not to leave anything with a hart in a car the next 7 days. Hyperthermia is a killer!

 

The Dweeber……………………………….:-)

Moisture Fetch now lifting north with Some Sunshine expected today….Warming trend to kick into high gear Wednesday with upper 80s expected by Sunday in Mammoth…Heat wave may last 7 to 10 days…..High based thunderstorms a good possibility next week….

Tuesday AM:

Moisture band still effecting the high country of the Central Sierra. Light rain fell Monday with amounts .12 to .15  recorded from RAWS sites around town. Checking SFO Radar, most of the shower activity is Sonora Pass north at the moment. Although there are still some showers to the west of Mammoth and out over the Valley.  The latest guidance shows the upper jet along the CA/OR border today…then lifting NE toward Washington state and Canada Wednesday into Thursday.

Strong rapid height rises are expected at 500MB over the far west next 24 hours including Mono County. This mornings 12Z WRF shows the 588DM height line pushing north of Mammoth tomorrow morning about 8:00am. So although high temperatures will again be difficult to forecast today because of Cloud Cover, with the projected height rises, the moisture band should gradually move north today as well. So some sunshine is possible today and thus high temps will likely get into the 60s this afternoon.

Outlook:

The Dweebs did some MJO work and noted that for the months of June, July and August, when the MJO projects into the Wheeler Phase Space 1 and 2, hot weather can be expected for California. I think that the ECMWF Ensembles have a better handle on this, as it holds on to the heat longer. If the EMON is correct in its projection, we can expect very warm weather to develop as progged by both the GFS and EC beginning this Thursday. However, the EC 00z Tuesday continues the anomalous heat longer through the 360-Hours. The GFS on the other hand weakens the upper ridge too quickly after the 3rd of July. There is better support for the upper ridge to remain longer as the MJO remains in phase space 2 through about the 8th or 9th of July. See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_51m_full.gif

Thereafter the EMON tracks the MJO into phase space 3 which is cooler then normal for California. See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/JJA/combined_image.png

 

Thus the GFS may be much too quick in breaking down the upper ridge over the west.  The EMON is suggesting that the heat will not break until about the 9th of July!  For our high country, should this heat wave develop as planned, no doubt that eventually, air mass modification will give Mammoth a nice break with afternoon and evening thunderstorms while the Owens Valley Bakes into the 2nd week of July.

 

With the upper high again forecasted to be closer to California, record or near records are possible.  Here are your record highs for the Owens Valley next week.

Sunday the 30th, 108; Monday 105; Tuesday 105; Wednesday 107; Thursday 107; Friday 108.

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)

A few cool…breezy….cloudy days with a few showers, then the heat is on later this week!

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Monday AM UPDATE:

Just a quick update…..The band of moisture currently headed into the Sierra still has the potential to bring some light rain or sprinkles today. The Dweebs are not expecting a lot but enough to possibly dampen the ground. The most notable change to the forecast is that temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than forecasted today.  Highs will only get into the 50s today…some 20 degrees below normal.  Night time lows will remain above freezing but into the upper 30s/low 40s.  Feels a little like fall!  Expect periods of gusty winds up to 35 MPH with ridge tope gusts to 60MPH.  It will be another cool day on Tuesday. However not as cool as today….expect highs in the 60s. Some scattered showers are certainly possible Tuesday.  Wednesdays weather is still looking good with highs in the 70s. Very warm weather is expected over the weekend with highs in the 80s.  The only other adjustment to the forecast is that most of the modeling is keeping the upper high east enough for very warm temps…..however, no records if the trend continues. There are more then enough ensemble members keeping the upper high between the 4 corners states and Southern NV. Vegas may break some records but Bishop may be just plain hot without record heat.  The location and strength of the upper subtropical continental high is what the Dweebs will be most focused on the next 5 days along with the possibility of Thunderstorms next week. More later this week on the developing heat wave and its effects upon the Eastern Serra. Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)