Some Thunder in the forecast the next few days….Then warmer for the weekend…..Next cool down comes later next week with fall-like Trofs effecting Mainly the Pac NW…….Cooler weather 2nd half of next week.
Tuesday September 10, 2013
Posted at 8:42 am by Howard
Upper low over Nevada now with counter-clockwise flow at 700mb back washing some moisture into the Eastern Sierra over the next few days. Yesterday there looked to be a storm over the Yosemite valley. For those that want an update on the Rim fire, here is a link to a good blog that will help: http://northcasmoke.blogspot.com/
High temps the next few days may be a bit cooler, just because of the added moisture and cloud cover with highs closer to 70 in Mammoth Lakes. Lows in the 40s.
The outlook finally shows the upper low moving east by Friday night so that the weekend is clear and dry of moisture. High temps will rise again into the weekend back into the mid 70s with lows in the 40s.
There appears to be major changes to the larger scale features over both the eastern pacific and far west that will put an end to…the persistent hose of monsoon moisture moving out of Mexico and effecting the desert southwest about the middle of next week. The first series of Fall like Trof’s that have been advertised for over a week now by both the Climate Forecast System and GFX would begin to move into the great basin about Tuesday or Wednesday. This may be a bit fast but it is significant change and about time. The Climo is favorable for a series of Trof’s to begin their march in the Pacific NW about the 3rd to 4th week of September. The GFS advertises for the Central Sierra, thickness cooling, gradient, stronger winds and cloudiness, all from the Gulf of Alaska…… and snows for the Cascades!
We finally got rid of the haze this morning as the gradient was not strong enough yesterday. Stronger NNE flow took care of that. This mornings 12z NAM showed a weak upper low over NW Arizona that will wobble NW into NV and remain there for a day or so. The upper flow has been quite moist to the east of the low. Apparently, some wraparound will affect the sierra the next few days and so the chance of some showers or thunder may occur from some interesting directions. Over all there is a slight chance as the AZ monsoon season comes to a close this month here in the Central Sierra.
High temperatures have been in the mid 70s in Mammoth and with the drier air of late, the longer nights have contributed to some good radiational cooling with temps well down into the 30s and 40s.
It will be gorgeous! high tempos will make a run for the upper 70s where in the Owens Valley possibly near 100. By the way….. the latest 100 hundred ever recorded in Bishop was in 1971 on the 14 of September. You may tie that record, or if it happens Sunday or Monday break it by it occurring a day or two later. As I am saying….there is a chance!
The Dweebs see quite the trof on the horizon later next week!!! Cooling…gusty winds….????
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)
Clean Air Returns to Mammoth Lakes……At Least for a while….Still some isolated showers possible this week………Overall, very nice weather here…..Some Aspens turning yellow gives a hint of Fall……
Monday September 2, 2013
Posted at 5:34 pm by Howard
Computer Issues the past week…
Will update soon….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)
Labor Day Update 5:30PM
With the expected wind increase yesterday…..clearing came to the skies of Old Woolly as expected. Afternoon clouds and a few light showers dotted the skies mainly to our east.
Eastern California continues to be inbetween a Trof in the Pacific NW and an upper high over Colorado. A moist Monsoon flow will continue to effect mainly Nevada and extreme Eastern Ca. Our local Sierra seems to have just enough SSW flow to keep the smoke to our north and showers mainly to our east. However for the record, the Sierra is still expecting a chance of showers or Thunder the next two days.. The upper low will begin to shift east Wednesday putting Mammoth a bit closer to the Rt Rear entry of the upper jet for some extra Divergence aloft and that may make for a better chance of the showers Wednesday PM. Thereafter, Thursday and into the weekend is of concern as far as the possibility of smoke returning to our area from the Rim Fire.
Much drier air and a more stable air mass is expected to move over our region Thursday. Although the main effect of the upper low will be a stronger and drier Southwest flow with winds gusting to 35+ MPH. Conditions may be favorable for increased fire activity from the weather conditions headed our way.
As the winds increase Thursday, they will begin to back to the west during the day. That is a better trajectory for the return of smoke to Southern Mono County. Then there is always the possibility that if there is some cooling with the system to our north, a northerly drainage wind my develop during the late night and into the morning. This very well may bring a return to smoky conditions to Southern Mono County again like last weekend. The fire is 60% contained. Lets hope containment continues on a rapid pace.
RIM FIRE INFORMATION
Release for Monday, September 2, 2013/Time: 6:30 AM
Acres Burned: 228,670 (357 square miles) Structures Threatened: 4,500
Containment: 60% Residences Destroyed: 11
Fire Start Date: August 17, 2013 Commercial Property Destroyed: 3
Fire Cause: Under Investigation Outbuildings Destroyed: 97
Cost to date: $66 million Injuries: 5
Total Personnel 4,616
Line construction combined with burning operations continued overnight where safe conditions and accessibility allowed on the east and southeast flanks of the fire. There has been good progress made on the spot fires occurring near Pilot Peak and along the southern perimeter. Fire activity continues to be active in the south and southeast with moderate rates of spread and torching. Today winds will be coming from the south southwest with up to 20mph gusts. Fire activity has been slow and moderate in the north end of the fire. Today’s fire weather is extreme. Very active fire and extensive spotting continues to hamper suppression efforts and pose risks to firefighters. Air resources continue to be utilized in assistance with spot fires, slowing fire advancement, and control lines in advance of the fire spread.
Dry weather expected again Today and Saturday with moisture on the increase Sunday into Monday. Some stronger breezes Sunday PM and Monday…..The chance of measurable precipitation increases to 30% by Sunday into Monday……Drier air will move back into our area by Mid week with just a Slight Chance of TSRWs….
Friday August 30, 2013
Posted at 9:24 am by Howard
Saturday Evening Update:
PM 10 Count hit 175 PPM at 6:00pm Saturday. (Unhealthy) Make sure you keep windows closed and keep indoors.
Latest on Rim Fire:
Rim Fire Fact Sheet
31 August 2013
Largest fire in the United States to date in 2013·
No. 1-ranked on national firefighting priority list
Fifth largest fire in California history
·Second largest to date in 2013: Lime Hills Fire, Alaska 201,809 acres
Personnel currently on incident:4,995
States that have sent firefighters or other personnel: 41 and the District of Columbia
Cal Fire geographical units that have sent personnel: 20 of 21
Uncontrolled fire edge: 107.4 miles
Completed containment line: 66.1 miles
Completed dozer line: 139.9 miles Proposed dozer line: 30.3 miles
Completed hand line: 5 miles Road as completed line: 16.3 miles.
Acreage in Stanislas National Forest: 156,185
Proportion of the fire burning within Stanislaus National Forest: 71.2 percent
Acreage in Yosemite National Park: 60,185
Proportion of the fire burning in Yosemite National Park: 27.5 percent
Acreage of state and private property: 2,907
Proportion of the fire burning on state and private property: 1.3 percent
Proportion of the Stanislaus National Forest within the fire perimeter: 17.4 percent
Proportion of Yosemite National Park within the fire perimeter: 7.9 percent
Size of the fire area:
Larger than the land area of San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose combined
Pounds of firefighter laundry washed:
Burned or damaged trees adjacent to power lines removed by Pacific Gas and Electric:
Quick Saturday AM Update
A wind shift from the west has brought the southern boundary of smoke from the Rim Fire into the Mammoth area over night. Visibilities were about 7 miles this morning. The PM 10 count jumped from 20 parts per million yesterday to briefly 120 parts per million about 1:00am this morning. By 7:00am this morning the PM 10 count was back down to 60 PPM. Westerly flow is expected to continue today and possibly into Sunday and thus so will the smoke. However. the upper flow is expected to back more to the south Sunday and thus push the smoke boundary back to our north as the day progresses. Labor Day looks clear of smoke. Lets hope that varifys….
Dew points are very high in Southern Ca as deep tropical moisture lay to our south. The southerly flow is expected to pick up that moisture for an increasing chance of thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will be dependent upon cloud cover. Expect high 70s today low 70s Sunday and Monday. lows at night in the low 50s.
Fair, dry warmer weather is expected to develop by Wednesday or Thursday.
Friday AM Update:
Acres Burned: 201,894 (315 square miles)
Structures Threatened: 4,500
Residences Destroyed: 11
Fire Start Date: August 17, 2013
Commercial Property Destroyed: 3
Fire Cause: Under Investigation
Outbuildings Destroyed: 97
Cost to date: $47 million
Total Personnel: 4,931
Weather Discussion and Summery: Temps in the mid to upper 70s this weekend for Mammoth with Lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.
Over the next couple of days high pressure aloft will sit over the plains states while Trofing persists off the pacific northwest coast. Thus the upper flow will continue to be channeled from the southwest (Dry). This persistent pattern should continue another day or two before the upper flow back a bit toward the south and an upper jet approaches. The pattern is dry here in Mammoth with Southwest winds continuing to carry dense smoke up into the northern portions of Mono County. Areas like Coleville will continue to be especially effected both day and night. Winds will be lighter today and so the smoke will be even more of a problem today and tonight up to the north of us.
By this weekend, the upper low in the pacific northwest will progress toward the northwest coast Sunday. This will bring an increase of zephyr winds Sunday and Monday to our area with gusts to 30 MPH possible. In addition….Amplification will allow monsoon moisture to spread north as well. Then there is that Rt Rear Entry region of the upper beginning to impact the 1/2 Northern CA Late Sunday and especially Monday. The chance of thunderstorm’s will increase Sunday PM and Monday. Hopefully they will be wet rather then just high based with just mainly lighting….
By the middle of next week the GFS shows enough WSW flow behind the upper Trof to bring enough dry air into our region to take out any threat of thunderstorms. It continues to be the most progressive. The ECMWF weakens it and still leaves enough subtropical moisture over the central and southern sierra Mid Week. Taking the middle road…the Dweebs are calling for a slight chance of thunderstorm’s Wednesday and Thursday here in the Mammoth Area.
There will be a WX Update for Mono County Sunday morning….