Moderate Winter Storm in Process…..forecast for 12 to 18 inches still looks good…..Platinum Powder Alert for Mammoth Mtn Reiterated for Wednesday Morning….

Yes its snowing!!  Snowfall ratios will be in the order of 15:1 or greater with this storm so the powder will be light and dry!……Not much to add to previous forecast other then Central Nevada area mountains will get a lot of snow…like 1 to 2 feet!

The snowfall forecast for elevations between the Village at Mammoth and Canyon lodge can expect 4 to 8 inches today and another 4 to 8 inches tonight….

Mammoth mountain can expect up to 18 inches by Wednesday AM.

 

The pattern will remain unsettled through the weekend as a series of impulses within the upper flow initiate snow showers and gusty winds. Next Saturday looks to be the next best chance for snowfall with some 3 to 6 inches possible over the upper elevations…..

Temperatures will remain a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal…..

Week 1 and 2 outlook (MJO)

The Current position of the MJO is in phase 4….IE the Maritime Continent. It is of moderate strength. Although the forecast for the MJO is for weakening the next week….the CPC suggested that other subseason effects would be temporary and that the MJO would remain active for the next several weeks as it moves eventually into the Western Pacific.  (CPC)….”The bias-corrected ensemble GFS forecasts a continued MJO signal over the next two weeks, with the enhanced phase crossing the  Maritime continent over the period. There is a hesitation in eastward propagation during Week-2, however. This is most likely other tropical subseasonal variability impacting the forecast at this time and is most likely temporary.  SEE:  http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html

 

In it current position, it favors an active pattern over the west with below normal temps and precipitation for at least the next week…..once it gets beyond 140E expect rising long wave heights over the PNA region.

 

The Dweeber…………………………..:-)

 

Long Awaited Pattern Change Just 24 hours Ahead…..Good Shot of Snow Expected for the High Country Tuesday and Tuesday Night…..Platinum Powder Alert for Mammoth Mt.

QUICK MONDAY UPDATE:

Everything on track including the storm….It will be dry today but will be increasingly windy during the afternoon…..Highs in the upper 40s in town and upper 30s on Mammoth Mtn.

Cold…Snowy…Blustery Weather Tuesday. The storm is expected to drop between 12 & 18 inches up on Mammoth Mtn and about 6 to 12 inches in Town by Wednesday AM.

For the Town….

Expect a dusting tonight….3 to 6 inches Tuesday and another 3 to 6 inches by Wednesday AM. This looks to be a two plow storm….

Temps will be colder Tuesday with highs in the upper 20s and mid twenties Wednesday and some 10 to 15 degrees colder for higher upper elevations.

Cold showery weather on and off will continue through weeks end……

 

Longer Range:

Some signs of much wetter pattern developing during the 1st week of March….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………….:-)

 

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It’s a beautiful day today in the high country….  Winds are light and the Sun Bright…  Temps will be in the 40s today with highs on Mammoth Mtn in the 30s….

Beginning tomorrow Monday, Washington’s Birthday, the winds will pick up a bit with gusts to 35 MPH on Mammoth Mt and high temps will remain in the 30s. It is expected to be dry.

Snow shower action will begin Monday Night with snowfall increasing Tuesday and into the night…… Some 12 to 18 inches of fresh could fall on Mammoth Mtn by Wednesday AM….

Temperatures will plummet behind the cold front Tuesday afternoon.

Now the details…..

The MJO has moved in the western fringes of the Maritime Continent the past 24 hours and has initiated the well awaited retraction of the East Asian Upper jet. Over the next 36 hours….the upper high over the far west will shift east to the Inter mountain West and Rockies as a Deep Upper Trof works its way southeast…down the west coast reaching the Northern California Coast by Tuesday night.  A vigorous cold front will proceed the upper Trof Tuesday Afternoon with 500mb-1000MB Thickness falls down the San Joaquin valley between tonight and Late Tuesday night of about 280dm. Freezing levels will drop from 10,000 feet tonight to 2500 ft by Wednesday AM over Fresno, Ca. This is a cold bugger……  There will be plenty of wind in the high country Tuesday PM and afternoon flights “may-be” in Jeopardy by late afternoon….Because of snow and visibility. The Point Forecast for Mammoth AP Tuesday is for 3 to 5 inches and another 3 to 5 overnight Tuesday. Of particular interest is that this mornings model runs clustered on a jog to the west a bit…more like the ECMWF…so the idea is to beef up the QPF on this one. The Dweebs will take another look on Monday to see if that is consistent.

Although the storm is not expected to be a wet one precip wise, in that an inch now of QPF is possible…and the fact that it is so cold that the Snow/Water Ratios will be in excess of 15:1 for a good part of the storm……Hence the Platinum Powder alert……….

 

Now for the First Call… Snow-Fall Est:

The Village at Mammoth:  3 to 7 inches Tuesday and an additional 3 to 7 inches Tuesday night

McCoy Station:  4 to 8 Tuesday and 7 to 11 Tuesday Night

Looks like a 12 to 18 inch storm for the upper mountain by Wednesday Mid Morning.

 

The rest of the weeks will be cold and at times showery with more short wave action ahead…..

Like your edges…..Stay Tuned>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

The Dweeber……………………..:-)

 

Fair and Warmer this week….Lighter breezes…..Pattern Change Next Week to Colder then Showery Weather…Otherwise Dry Weather Through Sunday….

The weather will remain fair through Sunday with a gradual warming trend.  High temps will finally move above freezing over Mammoth with temps in the upper 30 today and 40s Wednesday through Thursday. We may expect highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday. Lows at night in the teens and twenties. Winds in town will be light out of the NE.

Pattern Change:  The Dweebs had a look at lots of longer range guidance this AM.  Tropical forcing is just now getting ready to move off the African Continent and will slowly move east over the Indian Ocean the next 1 to 2 weeks. It is moving much slower then the Dynamic Model forecasts…..possibly due to Kelvin wave activity? Today it is still over Eastern Africa just about ready to move over the Indian Ocean. Once it gets well over the Indian Ocean, the Asian Jet should contract allowing retrogression of the long wave trof over the east…back to the west. This is about a two week process.  In the beginning…This will bring a return of cold, windy, showery weather to the west and dynamic weather to the central plains as early as Tuesday/ Wednesday next week.  After all were getting close to March and severe weather is only weeks away for the southern Great Plains.

The forecasts from the CFS is showing a very cold period for the far west around the 1st of March.

See:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20130211.NAsfcT.gif     For Temps

See:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20130211.NA.gif           For Precip

While it is not high on precipitation…it is very cold. Additionally, HPa 500 mean heights are low over the inter mountain west….suggesting that we over California will be on the back side of the long wave, not on the wet front side.  This is reminiscent of a cold showery pattern for the western Great Basin and Sierra with cold showery type storms.  The Dweebs feel we will know a lot more of the evolution of the pattern to come by the end of this week. So yes…the MJO will cause retrogression……but will it be too weak to pull the long wave negative mean height anomaly off shore?  The Dweebs would like to see its axis about 130 west!   Is it possible?  Sure!  It would not be the 1st time that the CFS was wrong! ;-)

Tuesday PM Update from the CPC:

The MJO favors, on average, a mean trough across the western U.S. near or just after mid-February suggesting elevated chances for below normal temperatures across parts of the western U.S.. As we approach the end of February into early March, the MJO would favor a retrogression of the ridge trough pattern across the mid-latitude Pacific – North America domain and would elevate odds for troughing near or along the west coast and a tendency toward a mean ridge across the eastern U.S., favoring elevated chances for above-normal temperatures for
portions of the east central U.S. and a more active weather pattern for the western U.S. with enhanced chances for above-median precipitation in areas that have seen on average below-median rainfall the last several weeks. The latter is currently at odds with Week-3 extended range model guidance.        This is in relation to the links above…..

Next:  Check out the Latest PNA Teleconnection forecast from the ESRL Ensembles:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/compare.pn.png

So enjoy the very nice weeks weather at hand and get ready for the cold, windy and snow showery weather next week…..

This week will be the time to be watching the week 2 fantasy charts and EC. Lots of excitement ahead to follow!!!

 

The Dweeber…………………………….:-)