A drier and more stable air-mass will develop over the Eastern Sierra with much above normal temperatures developing over the next few days….The first 80s of the year are expected this weekend….
Friday June 12, 2015
Posted at 12:08 am by Howard
Upper Ridge pattern is developing closer to the west coast with much warmer temperatures in the days ahead. It looks like there may be a few isolated thunderstorms in the late afternoon but odds are pretty low for anything significant. The main idea is to nudge the off shore ridge in this weekend for highs to reach the first of the low 80s this year in Mammoth. A few isolated TSRWs are possible but nothing to be concerned about. Again high s in the low 80s Saturday with lows in the 40s….. Enjoy the last 10 days of Spring…..
A zonal flow pattern sets up the early to mid-week period to the north of us. High temps may pull back a bit, but remain at least in the mid 70s. The Dweebs expect the Mono Zephyr to kick up Monday or Tuesday, with gusty west winds in the afternoon and early evening hours. Week 2 looks toasty for the Summer Solstice…..
The CPC indicates a 90% chance that El Nino will continue through the Fall and an 85% chance through the winter of 2016….
El Nino Winters are typically wetter than normal for Southern CA and statistically drier as you go north……
Next Update Tuesday…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)
Moisture from Tropical depression Blanca is moving north over the Baja Peninsula and will merge with upper low west of Southern CA Tuesday Night and Wednesday…….Moderate to possibly Heavy Rainfall is expected….
Monday June 8, 2015
Posted at 11:06 pm by Howard
Tropical Storm Blanca made landfall on the west side of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula this morning about 5 AM. Top winds were 45MPH. This is possibly the earliest landfall of a tropical storm along the BAJA Coast ever. The last time an early landfall occurred was early July of 1993.
Tuesdays weather looks fair in the morning with increasing clouds in the afternoon leading to scattered thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms may continue through the night and into Wednesday… A drying trend will begin Thursday with a warm dry following weekend. Lows are in the 40s now. Looking down the road….July looks anything but normal….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………:-)
Forecast Models This Evening are becoming more Robust with the upcoming pattern of a closed low developing a bit more south for better Divergence over Mono County…….Upper Low Ejects out by Sunday…….But leaves part of the Trof behind for more upper divergence next week…..
Wednesday June 3, 2015
Posted at 11:11 pm by Howard
Another 850 Convergence-250 Divergence couplet has developed over the Owens Valley. No doubt this will assist to firing up some afternoon convection for more of the same today and this evening. Over Mono County, plenty of moisture being re-circulated and plenty of morning sun to increase the CAPEs this PM for more of the same as well. PWAT is between .5 and .6 tenths of water in the column. So a few thunderstorms could have some brief heavy rain and hail.
After another day Sunday of afternoon thunderstorm action…..a drier air mass is expected Monday and Tuesday for isolated action. It will be sensibly warmer Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low 70s.
Another upper low will increase the thunderstorms action about mid-week
Next Update Tuesday…..
Another active day is expected today and Saturday with an 80% chance of scattered afternoon and evening showers and Thunderstorms. Highs will be in the low 60, lows in the upper 30s. It does look a bit drier Sunday and Monday with about a 30% chance of precipitation. Next week there will still be some storms, but the aerial coverage will not be as widespread as the next two days….
Longer range shows another upper low to effect the area about next Thursday….
Thursday AM Update:
SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows a 850-250 Convergence-Divergence couplet over Inyo county this morning that runs right up through Western NV. Precipitable water is not all that impressive with about 1/2 inch at the moment. However, that will increase over the coming 24 to 48 hours as the pattern moistens due to both dynamical and convective action. The lifteds are not all that impressive yet as well. With the first upper jet associated with the upper low at 500mb running SW/NE up through Southern CA up into Central Inyo County, an 850-250 couplet is very evident with Showers already occurring reported this morning over the Bishop AP. A line of showers are current active over Mineral County, NV northward. This is being forced by the combination of strong upper divergence, especially NE of RENO and moist unstable CAPEs as high as 500 to 1000 J/KG.
Short term models drop the upper low south today. So the initial upper jet slides east, however, upper divergence will drop south with the upper low. And…with all the daytime heating currently going on…CAPEs will certainly increase over Mono County, as well as upper divergence. I expect a nice 850/250 couplet over Mono County later this afternoon. It looks like it will be pretty active with showers and Thunderstorms. Some heavy rain, hail and snow above 10,000 to 10,500 possible, especially east of Highway 395.
It appears that Mono County will fair better now then earlier thought for significant precipitation with the upcoming systems as its track is a bit further south like forecasted earlier on. A southward shift of some 50 to 75 miles will make a big difference for heavy rain potential. Especially during the afternoon and early evening hours, We are close to about two weeks from the Summer Solstice. The Suns high angle now possesses the strength of some pretty amazing convection. It would not surprise me if there are reports of Cold Core Funnel clouds over the coming days. Will take a look at the SPC in the morning……
The pattern forecasted by the models kicks out the upper low Saturday night and Sunday. However……the long wave remains with another system approaching the coast by mid-week. In that there will be a lot of moisture left from this weekends system, showers and thunder will most likely continue on and off a good part of next week. At the moment, the following weekend of the 13th and 14th looks dry…
Tomorrow Thursday through Sunday….
Expect scattered showers, thunderstorms, hail and areas of heavy rain weekend. High temps near 60 Friday and Saturday with warmer temps Sunday….possibly 65 to 70…and lows near 40.