Breezy to Windy this Afternoon as Upper Trof Pushes East Through the Pacific NW….Warmer more Tranqual WX this Weekend..Then signifacant warm up next week…..

Winds were ramping up over the upper elevations this morning as the latest upper trof moves through the pacific NW. Blocking over Alaska has had the effect of suppressing the upper jet south of its normal position, over Northern California. Thus it will be windy this afternoon and evening and cooler Wednesday. In that Mammoth is located in the upper jets front RT quad, no precip is expected. In fact it will be drier then normal. Dew points were in the single digits this AM and with the anticipated wind, the National WX service has hoisted Red Flag warnings for critical fire conditions today and this evening….  High temperatures will cool to the low to mid 60s by Wednesday. Night time lows in the lower 30s.

500mb heights will recover about 100 meters by the weekend and so a nice warm 1st week of Summer is expected with highs in the mid 70 for Mammoth while Low temps will move up into the 40s.

 

Longer Range:

Next week looks warm; 70s then 80s….

This is the last Week of Spring as the Summer Solstice arrives Thursday the 20th at 10:04pm

Meteorologically speaking…..if the new June the 18th 12z GFSX verifies…..the continental upper high will set up over 4 corners (desert south- west) next week about mid week next week. All heads will then make the shift to the south as Monsoon Season begins over the Desert Southwest. It appears like a weak surge of moisture begins to trek north into Southern Arizona from Old MX next week. At the same time, a little SE flow may begin to move into Southern Ca by weeks end……………..it’s time!

 

The Dweeber………………………..:-)

 

New WX pattern ushers in cooler air and seasonal temps….Breezy to Windy Weather will be on….More often then not…..Dry Weather now likely the next 6 to 10 days unless another cut off low forms off shore…….Last week of June Hot!!

Saturday Update:

As expected…very light breezes occurred Friday. Today Saturday, and into Sunday should experience a slow increase in mainly mid afternoon and early evening breezes. Temps near the 8000 foot level will remain unchanged for the next 3 days with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Today’s afternoon winds will average in the 10 to 15 MPH range with some of the breezier areas gusting to 20mph…..Still considered light by Mammoth standards. By Sunday afternoon and evening breezes may reach 25 mile per hour.

The upper trof in the Pacific Northwest will begin to approach the coast Monday and move through Tuesday. Monday through Wednesday will experience stronger breezes with Tuesday afternoon and night being windy in many areas, especially down wind of Mammoth Pass. Winds SW 30 to 40mph are expected in areas of Mammoth at the 8000 foot level. Crest winds Tuesday will likely be in the 60mph class. It will be a cool morning Wednesday with lows in the low 30s. A warming trend begins Thursday into Saturday….Just in time for the Solstice.

Longer Range:

Some changes to this mornings outlook for the longer range:

It appears that the GFS is going to be more correct in its depiction and continuation of troughing in our future. The Dweebs longer range outlook in now taking into consideration the new 00z Saturday ECMWF, that has another weak trof moving to the north of our area the following Sunday. This means that more breeze is expected for the first weekend of Summer…then into the following first half of Week 2.  Although temperatures will warm up into the 70s the following weekend, upper 70s are not as likely now.

Will take another look at all this Tuesday……

Have a nice day :-)

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Friday Update:

Winds tapered down considerably as the latest trof moved east out of the Pacific NW. A surface high over Northern CA was responsible for creating some northerly flow which will become more easterly today. Overall, a good day to paint outside as light winds are expected.  Not So by mid afternoon Saturday as the next in series of systems approaches the Pacific northwest. Winds will come up a bit by mid afternoon from the Southwest. Expect afternoon breezes Sunday as well.

The next stronger trof and associated cold front moves inland early next week.. Although the front will be dry for Mono County, it will bring stronger breezes and high fire danger as dew points will be very low.  SW Winds Tuesday PM could be in the 30 to 40mph class in town. Temps the next few day will average in the low 70s…seasonal for this time of the year with lows in the 30s. It was 32 degrees at Sunrise this AM in Old Mammoth. Temps will be a bit cooler behind next weeks trof Wednesday AM with a few stations below freezing.

Looking at the longer range ECMWF, out 360 hours….it is apparent that a significant warm up is going to occur the following weekend of the 21st. Temperatures will climb well into the upper 70s in the high country and approach 100 in Bishop by that following Sunday. Although there may be a little pull back in temps week 2…..Weeks 3 and 4 look very warm which includes the first week of July.

 

EL Nino:

FYI;  it looks like a Modiki (weak) warm event is going to occur in the Fall.

SEE: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

For you Fisher Folks out of San Diego, you may not have to travel far off shore later in the Summer/Fall to get you fill of Dorado and Yellow Fin Tuna!

 

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An upper low ejected through California during the AM hours Monday, too soon for daytime heating.  Southwest flow pushed moisture and dynamics well into Nevada Monday. As a result, rains were heavy in parts of Nevada instead of the Sierra. A new Weather Pattern is set up now with a blocking upper high over Western Canada, forcing the westerly’s to undercut, thereby bringing a protracted period of trofing off the coast of California in the mean. This is a dry, breezy pattern for Eastern California. The good news is that temperatures will be mostly seasonal now through the next 6 to 10 days.  Seasonal temps at 8000 feet is about 70 degrees, this time of the year.

Pine pollen is coming on strong in Mammoth. Afternoons and evenings are a good time to keep windows closed when the winds are blowing or pine pollen will pepper everything.

Nighttime lows will be in the 30s and 40s depending upon if the winds are blowing through out the night or not. Dew points will tend to be lower then normal in the SW flow.

Longer range shows the Block over West Central Canada retrograding to the North of AK with slow continuous retrogression over time. The block over AK teleconnection usually favors a decent Trof at 150W to 160W this time of the year. This lends to more of a continental subtropical high over the Southwest into Ca.  No doubt, heights will be a lot higher the last week of June to return the Owens Valley  back into the 100s and Mammoth in the low 80s. Will the next heat wave be accompanied by large scale SSE flow?,  IE. Monsoon moisture?  Time will tell…….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………..:-)

Showers and Thunder today and Thursday with a Cap to inhibit development Friday and Saturday with Hot Hot Temps!…..Thunderstorms to return Sunday as upper cut off ejects through Ca……Putting the AO/California Teleconnection to RIP……

Saturday Am update:

 

This will be Brief:

 

The high temp in bishop Saturday was 103……Tying the old record of 103 set back in 1955. Todays temp forecast is 105 that would break the all time record of 104 set back in 1955. For Mammoth… Highs will be in the mid 80s  Isolated TSRWS will be with up today then increase a bit Sunday. As the upper low ejects through the Sierra Monday, Thunder storms a good bet anytime……even in the morning and night!  The good news is that the heat breaks Monday with highs in the upper 60s!  Temps will moderate back up into the low 70s next week with breezy weather mid week due to trofing. Night time lows will settle back into the 30s and 40s but it looks like we have seen the end of hard freeze weather for June. Possibly even low 30s…..!

 

The Dweeber…………………..:-)

 

Wednesday AM Update:

Once again showers and isolated thunderstorms occurred in Mammoth. Although Thunder was not heard, the Dweebs picked up .02 in the rain tip bucket.

No change is expected in the forecast today. The 500MB upper low located about 700 miles west of TJ, MX will continue to provide an upper divergence lower level convergence couplet for more isolated Showers and Thunder today and Thursday. Further Warming aloft on Friday should “Cap” the convection for just some afternoon clouds both Friday and Saturday. Heights and 850mb temps peak Saturday with record highs expected. The latest high temperature forecast for the USFS and Visitor Center for Saturday is 86……Some 18 degrees above normal.   

 

Below is a clip of today’s almanac:

 

Mammoth Almanac

 

Recapping the winter of 2013:

For those that may remember the Great Ca. Winter of 2011…..the thought was that the -AO teleconnection was the dominant cause for California’s wet and snowy siege. For the Winter of 2013 the colder season has come to close and natures Northern hemispheric thermal anchor the (PV) has retreated to its Summer home, over or near the Pole.  Lets take a look back at this winters AO teleconnection and remember about the amount of precipitation that fell in California. I mean any ware in California! As an example, for the amount of rainfall in LA (58%), 70% of normal for SFO. In order to find a normal years worth of rainfall you had to go close to the Oregon Boarder and find Eureka with 100% of normal.   As the Dweeb’s indicated last Fall, the -AO teleconnection “is not” a predictor of above normal rain or snowfall in California as the relationship is “Non Linear”. 

There are some scientists that have tried to correlate this -AO teleconnection to wet weather in California. There is no proof of this. As an example, take a look at the AO teleconnection which became very low in index at times this past winter/Spring. Although it provided for some nasty storms over the Midwest and New England,  California had one of their driest winters ever!  I mention this as I hope not to be reading in this coming fall blogs, about how the -AO will induce a wet California Winter. It is only one piece to the puzzle and has to be part of the larger picture with a lot more pieces!  The Negative AO often times is associated with a -NAO with causes a deep trof over the east. Once Snow cover is set up, a feed back can occur which can perpetuate the west coast Ridge (+PNA) and East Coast Trof -NAO/-AO. In retrospect, if we were looking ahead and wanted a real teleconnection forecast for the Winter of 2012/13 for Ca, one would have had better luck pondering the QBO last Fall. The Quasi Biannual Oscillation, a variable directional stratospheric wind oscillation above the Equator, became neutral (Between -10 and +10) this past winter. THIS WAS FORCASTABLE because of its timeline. The screaming message is that high latitude blocking is most dominant over Eastern Canada to the Davis Straights during the transition going from a -QBO to Positive. Most likely that was the tail that Wagged the Dog along with other large scale SST anomalies over the Pacific and Atlantic.

So…..

Look at the past winters AO teleconnection and think about how Big California’s Winter Was!  ;-)