The Heat is On….Summer Pattern Transition Underway….Upper Divergence expected Sunday with a Chance of Thunder as a Weak Upper Disturbance Moves Through Sunday…..High temperature records in Jeopardy early next week…..

Saturday 6-17-17

Quick update shows near record to record heat over the next 5 days over Eastern CA.  Mammoth Lakes will enjoy beautiful warm days with highs in the 80s through next Thursday. Lows in the low to mid 50s.

The cool down expected for the next weekend will be much less then expected. Expect highs to remain closer to 80 next weekend.  Evidence of the next substantial cool down is expected the very end of the month and into the first few days of July.  Highs may cool to the low 70s by July 2nd.

 

Friday June 16th update:

For fun, I just looked up the climate re-analysis for this Tuesday at 18Z (11:00AM) , 2015.  What I found was that the 500MB iso-height line came in over Pt Conception and swung east over the southern portion of the Owens Valley into NV. On that day, Bishop hit 108, which was a record for that day of the month of June.  This morning I had a look at both the ECMWF and GFS 18Z 500mb heights Prog for the same time frame. Both were remarkably the same showing that 594DM iso height line coming in very near the Bay Area then swinging ENE across highway 80 and Reno. The main point is that 500MB heights are forecasted to be a good 30-40DM higher with this anomalous pattern for June.  I think that record high temperatures for Eastern CA will be tied or broken.  The record for Bishop is 108 set in 2015 for the 20th of June, 2015… 

PSA:   Please do not leave your kids, seniors or animals in your car unattended even for a very short while. This heat wave developing for California is especially deadly for any person or animal left in a closed vehicle.  

 

Weather Update:

It appears to be one of the warmer Motocross Weekends with high temperatures reaching into the low 80s in Mammoth Lakes. The last time we had similar temps was mid June of 2015. The Dweebs still feel that there may be some high elevation snow-cover effects on our local weather, possibly slightly dampening the potential of upper 80s early next week and inhibiting convection, directly over the crest.

The Western Hemi Pattern is currently zonal across the eastern half of the pacific, east to the Rockies.  To our SE over NW Mexico, is an incipient subtropical high that will build both northward and at the same time, expand westward this week. A more dominant northward expansion of the Continental High is expected this weekend into early next week. Forecast global models show increases in 1000mb-500MB thicknesses, increased dibatically over the desert southwest, westward to the California Coast, through next Tuesday. Tuesday of next week may be the warmest day depending upon which model is correct. Today’s 12z ECMWF shows 500MB heights reaching just above 597DM over western AZ, southern NV and SE California by 06Z Tuesday. That is one warm Monday night!  So expect Mid Summer like heat this weekend into mid-week next week as Spring goes out like wimp and Summer roars in like a tiger! The Summer Solstice is this Tuesday evening the 20th at 9:24 PM, PDT. High Temperatures will range in the low to mid 80s this weekend and through next Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms are expected this weekend and through mid-week during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Longer Range:

Generally speaking, the trend of the models for the second half of next week shows the retrogression of a portion of the subtropical Continental High westward, while the eastern portion of the Continental high remains intact over the desert southwest. As 500MB height falls occur over the Pacific Northwest, and troughing extends SW, our Mt. Weather will both cool down and breeze up that weekend. There will be some Zephyr winds possible Thursday afternoon with the Zephyr strengthening a bit Friday. High temps will still range in the upper 70s to low 80s. Thursday and Friday. Synoptic scale wind and cooling will occur Saturday and Sunday. The Dweebs are expecting about 10 degrees of cooling next weekend. The pattern will be dry as well for the Sierra next weekend.  High temps may pull back closer to normal then.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)

 

 

Winters Last Gasp Underway as Cold Upper Low Churns off the Coast of Washington St……Some light snowfall possible over Central Sierra Sunday PM…..Warm up expected next week as the Spring Shifts to Summer Weather…..50th Annual Motocross to be Hot!

Congrats to the Class of 2017!

 

A deep for June, upper low center of 538DM at 500MB was west of Vancouver Island early this morning., with the main upper jet, West-East across Northern California. Winds over the crest are strong,  gusting to 90 MPH out of the WSW.  As the upper jet remains stationary, these winds are likely to continue through the weekend. Earlier this morning a cold front moved through Mammoth Lakes bringing .02 hundreds of an inch of rain. This mainly occurred at about 4:00 AM this morning.  It is cooler today with highs in the upper 50s. Tomorrow the GFS has 2.5C of cooling at 700MB, and 50DM fall in 500MB heights.  I expect another 4 to 5 degrees of cooling with highs on Saturday in the low 50s.   The upper low makes its move to the central OR coast by Saturday morning, then slides SE to Northern CA by late Sunday morning.   Significant height falls do not re-occur over Mammoth until Saturday night. Expect the winds to come up again Saturday night into Sunday, along with increasing clouds and further cooling. During that afternoon Sunday,  A strong Vort center +30 Via the Canadian model, swings over Mammoth Lakes at 5:00PM Sunday. No doubt there is going to be light snowfall in the high country Sunday afternoon of possibly a few inches with the snow level about 7000 to 7500 feet. This may continue through the late evening….Hence Winters Last gasp!

 

Next Week:  Summer on the way!

By Monday, the main wind gradient pushes south of the Owens Valley to the SE deserts of CA; it will still be a bit breezy in Bishop.  Tuesday into Wednesday, Progs show a flat ridge building over California with the ridge increasing in amplitude Thursday into the last weekend of Spring. High temps will return to seasonal norms by Wednesday and go well above normal over the following weekend. The last weekend of Spring looks hot for many areas of California with a Convective pattern setting up for the high country and the chance of Thunderstorms. Otherwise, it is June gloom season for the Coastal sections of CA.

Expect the last of the 40s for highs in Mammoth to occur this Sunday. With upper 50s Monday and 60s Tuesday. Highs low 70s on Wednesday and up to near 80 degrees by Saturday or Sunday with the chance of thunderstorms.

The last shoe to drop that shifts our pattern from Spring to Summer is when the Continental high sets up over the Southwest or even the far west great basin.  That is in the cards now by the next Sunday with guess what? Even the possibility of late afternoon Showers and thunder storms of the Summer time variety.  Take Care…..Summer is almost here! The Summer Solstice is the following Tuesday, the 20th at 9:24PM PDT.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)

Above normal temperatures will continue through mid-week before a strong dry cold front moves in Thursday into Friday….Cool Trof to persist into the upcoming Weekend with Below Normal temperatures Expected

Above normal temperatures along with fast moving rivers and creeks will continues through Mid Week while another cool late spring Trof approaches.  Daytime highs, now in the mid 70s in Mammoth and over night lows in the 40s will give way to highs near 60 by Saturday with over night lows in the upper 20s and low 30s by weeks end.  This is all due to a vigorous Trof that is dropping SE out of the Gulf of AK with its target upon extreme Northern CA Northward. Another round of heavy rainfall is expected along coastal areas of Oregon State.  For much of Central and Northern CA,  it will mean mainly Wind and Cooling with a chance of showers.  High temperature’s will begin to recover by the following Tuesday and the weather for the 50th Mammoth Motocross looks very nice with highs returning to the 70s.

Summer Weather;

It is the opinion of Mammoth Weather, that with the deep Solar Minimum approaching, summers will be increasingly cooler than the past 5 years with stronger more frequent afternoon Zephyr’s.  Normal to possibly below normal temperatures and less thunderstorm days are expected for the Central Sierra. Gulf of AK Trofing will remain stronger with migratory short wave incursions to the Northwest pacific coast creating more wind through the Mammoth Pass this summer, and possibly the summers following for the next 5 years.   The continental high may end up being more squashed east west affecting Southern CA more with summertime thunderstorms with periods of anomalous easterly flow remaining well south of the Central Sierra. Winters may tend to be wetter than normal along the central and northern west coast over all.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)