While the Eastern Sierra Experiences it first Dusting this Morning….More important changes on the Horizon lead to Weather Optimism for the Month of January…

 

Monday 7:00am

WSW now in effect

note:  snow level will rise today to between 8000 and 8500 then come down later this afternoon and tonight.

 

All model simulations have a track of the upper low moving west to east between Santa Barbara and Lax. This is further south than predictions Saturday. Main focus of forcing will be Southern Sierra with extension north to about Mammoth. Heaviest Precipitation will be coastal mountains of Ventura Co and eastward with local amounts 7 to 9 inches of water.

Mammoth Mt stands to receive 3 to 4 feet over the crest with 18 to 30 inches in town above 8000 feet by Tuesday night. 15 to 24 inches at 7500. Expect a fair weekend with high pressure aloft.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……

 

Complete update Tuesday morning…

 

Sunday pm update

 

Winter storm warning:

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ073&warncounty=CAC051&firewxzone=CAZ273&local_place1=13%20Miles%20E%20Lee%20Vining%20CA&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=37.939&lon=-118.887

 

300pm sat update

 

A winter storm watch has been issued by the national weather service for elevations above 7500 feet beginning at 7:00pm Monday night and continuing through Tuesday night. Between 2 and 3 feet of snow is expected by Tuesday night.

Amounts over the crest are expected to be 4 feet+.  There will be a break next weekend before the “first” powerful jetstream of the winter of 2017/18 arrives about the 15th…

 

I will have a detailed update in AM

 

 

——————————————

Finally…cooler breezy weather has returned to the high county this morning with a dusting of snow over the higher elevation’s and more to come over the next 5 to 7 days. Our dominant west coast high pressure system has shifted east to the state of Utah this morning. That’s enough to open the door to some pacific moisture and cooler temperatures.  The wave that moved though early this morning brought a few hundreds of an inch of water EQ. Another wave will move though Friday night with up to .30 inches of water over the crest. This should bring some 2 to 4 inches of snow over the top of Mammoth Mt. High temps will be in the 40s in town with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s

Extended:

A more important system that has been well advertised will move into the high country early next week with the potential to bring between 1 to 2 feet of snow over the higher elevations by Wednesday afternoon. The storm is being handled differently by both preferred global models. The ECMWF (EURO)  has the system coming in as an open trof while the GFS has it coming in as a large closed low. Either way, Mammoth gets good snowfall but the EC would be wetter as it can transport more moisture into the system while the GFS has us in the NE quad of the closed low system. The GFS  closed nature favors good lift, however, does not have as much moisture potential as the EC.   In that the EC has ensemble members that are more numerous with its solution, the Dweebs are favoring the EC at this time. IE more precip. Stay tuned on this Monday through Wednesday system for next week.  PS. it will be a colder system as well.

Long Range:

Another pattern change favors more of a zonal flow about mid month.  This is associated with quite the potent Pacific Jet Stream. I am suspect at this time of this wet scenario.  This pattern would be A-Typical due to the nature of a winter that has been associated with mostly Meridional flow thus far.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

Subtropical Moisture continues for flow over the region with a wave moving in Wednesday Night….A few inches of snow is possible over the much higher elevations….Another wave will move over the area Friday/Night…this will be a bit colder system with more light snowfall….Best storm on the horizon maybe next Tuesday and Wednesday….

Lots of old-time locals often times remind us that some of the biggest winters can start from very dry falls. History tells us that big winters can start as late as January or February!  So keep the faith and the shovels handy!

Todays weather guidance still has some light upper elevation snowfall for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This is followed by another marginally wetter system for Friday into Saturday AM.  That may give the upper mountain up to 6 inches according to the latest CRFC forecast. There is a more significant storm according to the European model and its ensembles for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. If the Euro is correct on its solution, then were off to the races!  The GFS is not as wet as it keeps it further to the north.

More Later………………….:-)

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

Considerable High Cloudiness will ring in the New Year…..Upper Ridge will weaken some what this new week as pattern goes into transition ….Mainly Light Precipitation to occur through early Friday….

New Years day….12:15PM

 

Happy New Year everyone….   Hope its a good one….

 

The 12Z European Ensemble forecast model was still running with the Deterministic run still showing a pattern change in the offering. QPF continues to be scaled back and that means in general that these storms are weakening as they come in, due to the west coast ridge.  Light snowfall is still expected beginning Wednesday at elevations mainly above  8000 to 9000 feet. This does not appear to be a plowable storm for residential driveways for the vast majority of town.  As per this mornings CA Rivers Forecast Center, The Dweebs are not expecting much more than a few inches from this system, even over the higher elevations.  Looking at the 5 day means on the last ensemble run, the mean ridge position over the Central Pacific is between 150E and the dateline. This is not good….

500MB heights fall over time but remain higher than normal.  As mentioned earlier, the European model which is usually better at distance is showing a colder system for about the middle of next week with the chance of another following.  These storms will most likely weaken as they come in. However, they may provide some badly needed snowfall along with temporally colder temperatures.

Later in the week 2 period the new 12Z Jan 1, ECMWF Ensemble which has just finished running,  shows amplification of the Central Pacific ridge between 150E and the dateline. If this model ensembles verify’s, this in turn will ridge us back up again………

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I think that on an interseasonal scale of time, this is got to be one of the strongest and persistent Hemispheric Meridional Upper Flow patterns I can remember for a long time. The fact that the midwest and east is setting low temperature records are all part of this pattern, that is similar to the winter of 1917-18 I have read.  I am sure that the -QBO combined with La Nina has something to do with it. All models have done poorly with forecasts of both timing and details of guidance in their week two forecasts.  One only has to look at the non-details of the 5 day ensemble means of the ECMWF to see that a major wet pattern is not in the cards at this time. And…it is possible that we may be transiting to a pattern of one that is marginally wet before we go dry again.  We’ll see how the next 6 to 10 days develop in the week 2+ guidance.

On the bright side, it does look like that we may get one decent colder storm the following week, the week beginning the 8th. That may be enough to greatly improve our spirits!  The forecast for this upcoming week is one of unsettled weather with the chance of light precipitation beginning anytime mid-week (Wed) into the following week. The snow level along with the freezing level will remain fairly high, between (snow level) 8K and 9K. Based upon this mornings CRFC, the guidance suggests about 1/2 inch of water eq over Yosemite through Friday AM.  I will update later New Years Day Morning. However, that does not cover a more significant system later in the weekend or early the following week. Remember, the details are very poor because of both pattern transition and the mean ridge position over the far west. The upper flow mid-week is southerly, so orographics will not be a major player in the beginning of this pattern change.

 

PS I am still watching the MJO to see how strong it gets and how far east it gets…  That can make a big difference on how the pattern evolves…

 

 

 

 

 

More Later…………………….:-)