Storm system now moving into Mono County…Heaviest snowfall late tonight into Sunday Morning…… Focus then hinges upon Friday system and its formation and movment…

Lots to ponder and the wait on the longer range is taking its toll on this Dweeb….

I will update tonight in my letter for Sunday about the details on the coming pattern changes and how it will effect the longer range.

  1. This first system is splitting somewhat. However should remain intact enough to provide a nice shot of heavy snowfall tonight into Sunday AM.  6 inches + in town and a foot plus over the upper elevations. Thereafter, just some show showers or light snow later Sunday into Sunday night and even some showers early Monday AM. Very light accumulations expected between Sunday night and Monday AM.
  2. Temps: Lows to 20 degrees Saturday night with highs in the mid to upper 20s Sunday. Winds gusts to 40MPH this afternoon, 35MPH tonight. Westerly gusts to 30MPH Sunday’  Fair Tuesday and Wednesday….Highs 35 to 43
  3. The chain of events for the future will be dependent upon how progressive the pattern is across the CONUS.  WX discussion will revolve around this point….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

Split flow blues to have silver linning as split delayed allowing decient moisture to arrive Sunday…..Thanksgiving Turkeys to gobbeling in the snow this season with more on the way afterwards….

 

5:30PM

Split flow taking its toll but active area to our west still expected to move east……North/South orientated Precip band is from about June Lake north with a fairly active area over Madera to the west. We may still get a few inches out of it so hold on….  As mentioned in earlier post…Split flow patterns are difficult to forecast……..

Next system is expected for Wednesday…although it is not splitting it is going to be mostly to our north.

 

More in letter issued later…

 

The Dweeber………………:-)

 

Sunday 1:25PM

 

Our splitting system still on the way and taking its good sweet time. Snow fall should begin about 6:00PM with very light amounts.  Thereafter, precip rates will pick up later this evening….  Amounts should be in the 4 to 8 inches class over the upper elevations with 2 to 4 in town by morning…

Next system Monday…..

 

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Fellow Dweebs, Dr Howard just had a total knee replacement Thursday AM so please pardon me if I do not share the current developing patterns enthusiasm as often as I would like to. With that said, the weather letter will always be on time with the help of Cyber K.

Looking at the ECMWF Ensembles, both Control and Ens Mean, it is evident that our current split flow pattern will consolidate toward the end of the month with a couple of good storms between about thanksgiving and Dec 1st.  There are timing issues of course this far out so I will not speculate on when the storms may arrive later next week, just that the long adjustment wave over the Eastern Pacific is coming into CA.  Also, as we go into December, the upper jet will become more NW orientated and so some of the storms will have lots of wind with them month end, into Dec. The best system in the series may be around Dec 4th.

The most current pressing system time wise is going to work out pretty week as the split comes in much later than earlier forecasted. This delay in split will allow some moderate snowfall to work into the Mammoth, Sunday morning through Sunday evening. This is not a cold storm. But will allow the snow levels to fall to 7000 feet during the latter half of the storm, then as low as 6000 feet about the time when the precip will be most over.  For the Snowplowers, and the guys itched to get out there, this looks like a late afternoon or evening plow when the storm is pretty much wrapped up. The upper mountain may get between 12 and 15 inches with the latter reserved for the very upper mountain as I see it. More may fall but as you know, split flow systems are sometimes the most difficult to forecast amounts…..The Town of Mammoth may get up to 6 inches at the village.  The next storm looks to be about Wednesday….more later.

I wanted to reiterate to all that the forecast of the change of pattern was picked up the latter part of October by the MJO phase space, and that is impressive from an inter seasonal point of view.

 

 

Cold Windy System Approaching West Coast Tonight….Highlights are wind and cold with light snow….Split flow pattern brings a lot of uncertanity to Sunday/Monday Storm….

Forecast remains the same as a windy system approaches tonight…..It will be a lot colder Wednesday and even colder Thursday because of the chilly NW jet on the Trof back side.  The current extension of the East Asian jet comes without much in the way of moisture for Central CA. The wave length between the eastern pac ridge (EPAC) and the ridge down stream is counter productive for the Sunday night storm. Thus the upper Trof being negative tilt will tend to split southward with the possibility of LA or even San Diego doing better with that storm. Some models have a more decisive split then others. So this is a case where any confidence in the numbers will have to wait until Thursday or Friday most likely. In that it is Mid November, Winter is beginning to set in hemispherically. So far winter has set in fully over Northern Europe and Northern Asia. In the next 3 weeks Winter will come to North America and our season of transition will be over.

The teleconnections all have the Arctic Oscillation rapidly going negative over the next two weeks.  This means that the upper flow will become more meridial in nature with high latitude blocking setting up with the westerlies undercutting here and their.  This eventually brings the cold south into the States. (CONUS)  So this is the question; Will the -AO favor the east or western US. I think both with the west first and then the east.  We’ll see.    As blocking develops, that should eventually take care of the problem of the west coast split.

I will have an update on Precip for the central sierra Thursday morning in my letter….:-)

 

For what ever it is worth….Those that are concerned about a good snowpack for Christmas might like to know that the 46 day, Day 0-46 or from 00z 14th of NOV to 00z Dec 30th; The ECMWF EPS ENS is showing a lot of snow for the Northern Sierra south through the bottom of the Southern Sierra with amounts of 150 inches suggested by the guidance.