Soggy Wet Storms to give way to drying and sunshine over the weekend and into next week…..Next wet pattern taking aim on the High Country Week 2 Friday into the weekend…It is looking kind of splitty at the Moment….

So far, the Town of Mammoth has picked up 2.24 inches of water from this storm, while Mammoth Mt snow plot at Sesame, indicates up 4.84 inches of water. Another 3.5 to 4 inches is expected over the crest before the last AR is over in this cycle.  The Town of Mammoth will get another 1 to 1.5 inches of water through Saturday AM.  So far, Mammoth Mt reports about 3 feet at the Main lodge and approaching 5 feet at the 10,000 foot level. Another 2 to 3 feet is expected over Mammoth Mt prior to the end of this storm cycle. The snow level is now 9500 feet. It has been raining in town since late morning Tuesday and will continue to do so through Thursday. There will be a break in the precipitation later today into Thursday morning before the next and final AR arrives later in the day Thursday.  Expect the freezing level to fall Thursday night with the snow level coming down as well, into the Towns of Mammoth and June Lake. Snowfall is expected all day Friday and Friday night.  Snow showers are expected Saturday morning in town.

Accumulations in the Town of Mammoth will be between 6 and 10 inches at the village between Thursday at 10:00PM and Friday at 10:00 AM.   The Snow level at 10:00PM Thursday will be between 7500 and 8000 feet through 10:00AM Friday. About 1.20 inches of precip is expected within the same time frame. Between 10:00AM Friday and 4:00PM Friday expect about .25. Or about and additional 2 to 3 inches of snow at temperature. Little accumulation is expected after midnight Friday night into Saturday AM.

 

Medium Range:

A nice break is expected Sunday through Wednesday next week as high pressure aloft builds over the region. However, the next series of storms look likely to hit as early as Thursday night the 16th.

Note: The Dweebs have noticed that the next storm cycle will be different, in that the pattern or storm track is developing further west. The wave length relative to the location of the central coast suggests that the upper flow becomes very diffluent as it runs to higher height’s. This means that the storms will begin to run into resistance and tend to split prior to coming on shore. Although there is lots of time for the pattern to adjust, a pattern like this may cause the storms to split south into Southern California bringing them a very wet scenario, as there is a lot of strong jet support indicated along the US/Mexican border, well south of where it has been.

Climate:

The Climate Forecast system indicates that week three or the last week of February will turn wet again. Heights at 500MB over the WPO region are anomalously high. IE (-WPO) .  This would indicate a return to AR conditions along the west coast with a strong undercutting upper jet.

I will have a special report on this next week in my weather letter at:  http://data.mammothweather.com/landing/

See 500MB Height Forecast from CFS:

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

 

Warmer and Wetter Systems Ahead…..Weekend Looks Great!

 

Update via Weather Letter Tuesday 12:00PM  2-7-17

http://data.mammothweather.com/landing/

 

The pattern I see developing over the next  5 to 7 days will be one that favors central and northern CA more with warmer storms and wetter snowfall.   Weather systems Thursday, Friday, Sunday night and Monday are associated with a jet stream that is focused further north.  So snow levels will gradually rise with time. Atmospheric Rivers are still possible over the next 7 days so precipitation prediction will be tricky, especially this far south.

I am particularly concerned about a stronger Atmospheric  River, Tuesday into Wednesday night next week. That system may play havoc with the snow pack, especially over the Northern Sierra. To sum it all up, we have a few more weather systems to deal with here in Mammoth. However the brunt will be several hundred miles to the north of us and the southern portions of these systems will have both higher snow levels with weaker Atmospheric Rivers at times.  It is still possible that over the crest, there may be another 3 to 4+ feet by next Tuesday. There will be much less amounts in town because of the warmer temps. Again there is a concern about the Anti Cyclonically Curved pattern,  behind the Monday weather system for Tuesday into Wednesday.

The Dweebs are not completely confident that once the upper ridge sets up over the west coast later next week, that the ridge will hold for any significant length of time. However, the break will be welcomed by many!

Long Range Forecast- The next two systems that are headed our way look to bring between a foot of snow to the lower elevations of town and up to between 2 and 3 feet of snow over the crest. This is between midnight Wednesday night and early Saturday a.m..  It looks to be wet snow in the Town of Mammoth with cooling temps Friday into Friday night. The snow level will come down Friday night. This is a particularly windy system, as the upper jet axis is mainly to our north now. The weekend looks partly cloudy and breezy. There will be quite a bit of cloudiness at times with a few showers possible later Sunday, highs this weekend will be in the 40s and lows in the 20s. The Dweebs hope that this Sunday’s report for Monday a.m. will shed more light on that Atmospheric River for mid week next week,  if and where it may set up. If we do get precipitation in town Tuesday and Tuesday night. Most likely it will be rain.

Interseasonal outlook:

The Climate Forecast system is showing for week 3, a Massive Block, NW/SE over Hudson Bay then NNE to the Sea of Kara, Russia. The PV is forced to set up well South of the Gulf of AK about 135W to 140W with a southerly displaced Storm Track that could really hammer the central and northern West Coast….Sometime between the 16th and the 22nd of February…..Stay Tuned….  Note:  This is an outlook and not a forecast. (There is a difference)

 

 

Precipitation Anomaly:

 

 

High Clouds will give way to more sunshine today with warmer temps……The Thursday-Friday Storm has turned decidedly wetter for Mono County…..Cloudy but dry weekend still in the Outlook…..But Groundhog’s Day Outlook May have a few surprises for the Snow Weary…..

Monday 3:05PM….

I find it interesting that for the past two runs, the European wants to bring in another storm to the Sierra early next week while the GFS is building an even stronger ridge with its 12Z run compared to its 06Z from last night.   Took a quick look at the WPC QPF 7 day and noted that the Dweebs back east are giving the Sierra on the west side from Mammoth Mt,  about 4 tenths more to the 7 day period after the Thursday-Friday storm, and after a fair weekend. For moisture lovers, Tahoe will fair better with the EURO storm, with about an additional 1-1/2 inches of water added.  Not nearly the QPF the EC showed, but a compromise enough that some of the Dweebs back east are at least considering another front while the GFS is going with Beach Weather in Southern CA by Wednesday next week.     Go figure….  That’s snow Biz….

Comment: Watch for the flip!  

Either model may flip before Punxsutawney Phil goes out to see his shadow at 7:25 AM this Thursday. However, can we really rely on the forecast power that this over grown rat has. That is to predict our weather for the next 6 weeks?   No!  Because the simple answer is, that the weather is often times the opposite on the west coast as it is in Pennsylvania because of the wave length of the westerlies……  That is why we have to have our own answer to Punxsutawney Phil on the west coast.   Mammoth Marmot is it!  But do you really think that this large squirrel will attempt to find his way out of the 25 foot snow pack just to see if he can see his shadow this Thursday?  Not………..

 

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No matter what way you look at it, mother nature wants to give Mono County her fair share of precipitation from every storm that hits Northern California this winter…..  The guidance has turn decidedly wetter for Southern Mono County, with the Thursday Friday storm. Another Atmospheric River, however, light to moderate, is forecasted to slam Northern California with enough left to bring the Town of Mammoth between 1 and 2 feet of new snowfall and up to 3 feet  over the crest. Unusually, the GFS has out done the European Model this year. Those forecasters including myself that put more emphasis on the Euro model, keep playing catch up with the rest of the guidance for storms in the future. Note: Snow levels may rise to between 7500 to 8,000 for a time Thursday, so amounts may be slightly less in town.

This storm is slowing a bit and wont really get in here until Thursday morning with Thursday afternoon into Friday morning the “IOP” for Forecasters.

The Following weekend is still expected to be dry.  However, cloudy and breezy over the upper elevations as another system pushes in to the north of us.

Just a heads up, the trend of the Global forecast system (GFS) continues to retrograde the Bering Sea Block westward next weekend for a storm track trending North.

 

However, the EURO which I just bashed, delays the westward movement of the Block by a few days and allows another system to effect Mono County early the following week. At the present time, this extension of time by the European Model is not supported by the GFS system, so we”ll have to wait until about Ground Hogs Day Thursday,  to see if the GFS continues its consistency or flips to the ECMWF.

 

The Dweeber….