Weak Low Pressure West of Santa Barbara and upper ridge of high pressure over west NV Through Northern CA is Transporting Monsoon Moisture Northward through Central CA…..Increasing potential of rain this weekend….

The interaction between the upper low off shore and deep subtropical moisture will increase dynamics this weekend and the threat of wetting thunderstorm’s across the Mono County area, mainly Friday through Sunday AM. This mornings guidance showed a VT max or easterly wave coming out of AZ into SE CA. Showers and thunderstorm’s were developing with this circulation. This system will increase the threat of precipitation for the Owens Valley later today and tonight. This organized band may produce heavy rain.   The band weakens after midnight tonight but may still produce some showers after midnight for the Mono County area.

 

For the Mono County area, the odds for wetting rains will increase Friday afternoon into Saturday night……

As a note, Summertime patterns are different then Wintertime patterns as this is not a storm that moves in and moves out. Rather, there are convective parameters that are pointing toward an increasing chance of rain over the weekend. Morning cloud cover can inhibit the convective process and so that parameter will be looked at each morning as well to judge the days convective potential for the Mammoth area.

Of note, there is likely to be an upper jet that comes through this weekend to the south of us associated with the upper low off shore. This upper jet is likely to dynamically enhance lift over the sierra, sometime Saturday or Saturday night.

 

More later…………………….

High Pressure Aloft is cranking tonight with heights of 597DM over NW Nevada…Rare Easterly flow has developed with isolated storms moving east to west……SE flow develops Thursday as airmass modifacation continues….Moderate Monsoonal flow develops w/Increasing dynamics for Scattered Thunderstorms Thursday and Friday….

Showers and thunderstorms have been mainly isolated the past few days. The Atmosphere has for the most part been capped, so showers are occurring later in the day.  Tomorrow Tuesday and Wednesday the upper high will reach its peak intensity over Northern CA and Nevada with resort levels reaching its highs of the Summer. The Ridge will also take on more of a NW/SE orientation. As the cap weakens Thursday and Friday, dynamics increase and Monsoonal moisture moves up from the south. At the moment, the best convection may be west over the coastal sections of CA and interior deserts Wednesday night. Furthermore, for Southern Mono County, Thursday afternoon and night seems to be the main stormy period with storms strengthening at night! Will fine tune Tomorrow.  For the Deserts of Inyo and Kern County, Wednesday night may have some mesoscale convective clusters along with flash flooding. Trans-desert travel in this area Wednesday night will be very risky!

 

For you folks in Southern CA, get ready for some real humidity as PWAT reaches between 1.5 and 2.00 in some areas….More later…

 

The Dweeber…………..:-)

Mid Summer has passed with August the last remaining month of “Meteorological Summer”…..

So far, as the Dweebs earlier forecasted, our summer has been pretty void of strong thunderstorms here in Mammoth Lakes. We have been for the most part, void of the wide spread heavy rains that give our area about an inch of precipitation during the Summer months. The idea was, back in May, that additional Trofing in the pacific NW would force the deeper moisture of the monsoon, further east and south. So far that has worked out. Most of the deeper moisture and dynamics has remained further east and south. Late July and Early August typically bring the best chances for wetting rains here in Mammoth Lakes.

High temperatures here at 8000 FT have reached well into the 80s with 87 our warmest day so far since the solstice.  Typically, our warmest day reaches 88 during the summer. So over all, not a hot summer here in the Eastern Sierra and certainly drier than normal.  We still have August to contend with and I do see a rather warm weekend coming up along with chances of some wetting rains developing next week.

It will be drier Wednesday and Thursday with seasonal temperatures today Wednesday with just some afternoon clouds. It will be warmer over the weekend with isolated TSRW’s     Next week…..A return of at least modified Monsoon and air-mass modification leading to some days of wetting rains…

Winter Guesses:  teleconnections…

The North Pacific is warmer than normal well up into the Bearing Sea and even that sea into the arctic to its north.  As a side note, I just got back from a trip to the NW passage and flew over the Mendenhall Glacier. Most of the Glaciers are in retreat in that area.  Many are disappearing pretty quickly according to the locals and experts I spoke with.

 

The forecast of ENSO is for neutral ENSO conditions moving back to weak La Nina conditions by January.  This argues for more AR events this winter as the correlation between weak El Ninos to weak La Ninas that favor more west coast AR’s.  The PDO is still in its Positive phase like last winter updated today for the month of June.  The QBO has dropped to weakly negative.  It is over do for a flip to negative. the Sun is heading toward its solar minimum.  All these indices are positive for at least a normal to above winter. However, it is still very early to be making winter predictions…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:-)